This paper considers the family of invariant measures of Markovian mean-field interacting particle systems on a countably infinite state space and studies its large deviation asymptotics. The Freidlin–Wentzell quasipotential is the usual candidate rate function for the sequence of invariant measures indexed by the number of particles. The paper provides two counterexamples where the quasipotential is not the rate function. The quasipotential arises from finite-horizon considerations. However, there are certain barriers that cannot be surmounted easily in any finite time horizon, but these barriers can be crossed in the stationary regime. Consequently, the quasipotential is infinite at some points where the rate function is finite. After highlighting this phenomenon, the paper studies some sufficient conditions on a class of interacting particle systems under which one can continue to assert that the Freidlin–Wentzell quasipotential is indeed the rate function.

In this paper, we propose two new optimal reinsurance models in which both premium budget constraints and the reinsurer’s risk limits are taken into account. To be precise, we assume that the reinsurance premium has an upper bound, and that the admissible ceded loss functions have a pre-specified upper limit. Moreover, we assume that the reinsurance premium principle is calculated by the expected value premium principle. Under the optimality criteria of minimizing the value at risk and conditional value at risk of the insurer’s total risk exposure, we derive the explicit optimal reinsurance treaties, which are layer reinsurance treaties. A new approach is developed to construct the optimal reinsurance treaties. Comparisons with existing studies are also made. Finally, we provide a numerical study based on real data and an example to illustrate the proposed models and results. Our work provides a novel generalization of several known achievements in the literature.

There has been substantial interest in developing Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms based on piecewise deterministic Markov processes. However, existing algorithms can only be used if the target distribution of interest is differentiable everywhere. The key to adapting these algorithms so that they can sample from densities with discontinuities is to define appropriate dynamics for the process when it hits a discontinuity. We present a simple condition for the transition of the process at a discontinuity which can be used to extend any existing sampler for smooth densities, and give specific choices for this transition which work with popular algorithms such as the bouncy particle sampler, the coordinate sampler, and the zigzag process. Our theoretical results extend and make rigorous arguments that have been presented previously, for instance constructing samplers for continuous densities restricted to a bounded domain, and we present a version of the zigzag process that can work in such a scenario. Our novel approach to deriving the invariant distribution of a piecewise deterministic Markov process with boundaries may be of independent interest.

In this paper, we introduce a slight variation of the dominated-coupling-from-the-past (DCFTP) algorithm of Kendall, for bounded Markov chains. It is based on the control of a (typically non-monotonic) stochastic recursion by another (typically monotonic) one. We show that this algorithm is particularly suitable for stochastic matching models with bounded patience, a class of models for which the steady-state distribution of the system is in general unknown in closed form. We first show that the Markov chain of this model can easily be controlled by an infinite-server queue. We then investigate the particular case where patience times are deterministic, and this control argument may fail. In that case we resort to an ad-hoc technique that can also be seen as a control (this time, by the arrival sequence). We then compare this algorithm to the primitive coupling-from-the-past (CFTP) algorithm and to control by an infinite-server queue, and show how our perfect simulation results can be used to estimate and compare, for instance, the loss probabilities of various systems in equilibrium.

This paper studies the input-queued switch operating under the MaxWeight algorithm when the arrivals are according to a Markovian process. We exactly characterize the heavy-traffic scaled mean sum queue length in the heavy-traffic limit, and show that it is within a factor of less than 2 from a universal lower bound. Moreover, we obtain lower and upper bounds that are applicable in all traffic regimes and become tight in the heavy-traffic regime.

We obtain these results by generalizing the drift method recently developed for the case of independent and identically distributed arrivals to the case of Markovian arrivals. We illustrate this generalization by first obtaining the heavy-traffic mean queue length and its distribution in a single-server queue under Markovian arrivals and then applying it to the case of an input-queued switch.

The key idea is to exploit the geometric mixing of finite-state Markov chains, and to work with a time horizon that is chosen so that the error due to mixing depends on the heavy-traffic parameter.

We formulate a centrally planned portfolio selection problem with the investor and the manager having S-shaped utilities under a recently popular first-loss contract. We solve for the closed-form optimal portfolio, which shows that a first-loss contract can sometimes behave like an option contract. We propose an asymptotic approach to investigate the portfolio. This approach can be adopted to illustrate economic insights, including the fact that the portfolio under a convex contract becomes more conservative when the market state is better. Furthermore, we discover a means of Pareto improvement by simultaneously considering the investor’s utility and increasing the manager’s incentive rate. This is achieved by establishing the collection of Pareto points of a single contract, proving that it is a strictly decreasing and strictly concave frontier, and comparing the Pareto frontiers of different contracts. These results may be helpful for the illustration of risk choices and the design of Pareto-optimal contracts.

We study heterogeneously interacting diffusive particle systems with mean-field-type interaction characterized by an underlying graphon and their finite particle approximations. Under suitable conditions, we obtain exponential concentration estimates over a finite time horizon for both 1- and 2-Wasserstein distances between the empirical measures of the finite particle systems and the averaged law of the graphon system.

We consider linear preferential attachment trees with additive fitness, where fitness is the random initial vertex attractiveness. We show that when the fitnesses are independent and identically distributed and have positive bounded support, the local weak limit can be constructed using a sequence of mixed Poisson point processes. We also provide a rate of convergence for the total variation distance between the r-neighbourhoods of a uniformly chosen vertex in the preferential attachment tree and the root vertex of the local weak limit. The proof uses a Pólya urn representation of the model, for which we give new estimates for the beta and product beta variables in its construction. As applications, we obtain limiting results and convergence rates for the degrees of the uniformly chosen vertex and its ancestors, where the latter are the vertices that are on the path between the uniformly chosen vertex and the initial vertex.

We study the asymptotic growth rate of the labels of high-degree vertices in weighted recursive graphs (WRGs) when the weights are independent, identically distributed, almost surely bounded random variables, and as a result confirm a conjecture by Lodewijks and Ortgiese (‘The maximal degree in random recursive graphs with random weights’, preprint, 2020). WRGs are a generalisation of the random recursive tree and directed acyclic graph models, in which vertices are assigned vertex-weights and where new vertices attach to $m\in\mathbb{N}$ predecessors, each selected independently with a probability proportional to the vertex-weight of the predecessor. Prior work established the asymptotic growth rate of the maximum degree of the WRG model, and here we show that there exists a critical exponent $\mu_m$ such that the typical label size of the maximum-degree vertex equals $n^{\mu_m(1+o(1))}$ almost surely as n, the size of the graph, tends to infinity. These results extend results on the asymptotic behaviour of the location of the maximum degree, formerly only known for the random recursive tree model, to the more general weighted multigraph case of the WRG model. Moreover, for the weighted recursive tree model, that is, the WRG model with $m=1$, we prove the joint convergence of the rescaled degree and label of high-degree vertices under additional assumptions on the vertex-weight distribution, and also extend results on the growth rate of the maximum degree obtained by Eslava, Lodewijks, and Ortgiese (Stoch. Process. Appl. 158, 2023).

We consider Gaussian approximation in a variant of the classical Johnson–Mehl birth–growth model with random growth speed. Seeds appear randomly in $\mathbb{R}^d$ at random times and start growing instantaneously in all directions with a random speed. The locations, birth times, and growth speeds of the seeds are given by a Poisson process. Under suitable conditions on the random growth speed, the time distribution, and a weight function $h\;:\;\mathbb{R}^d \times [0,\infty) \to [0,\infty)$, we prove a Gaussian convergence of the sum of the weights at the exposed points, which are those seeds in the model that are not covered at the time of their birth. Such models have previously been considered, albeit with fixed growth speed. Moreover, using recent results on stabilization regions, we provide non-asymptotic bounds on the distance between the normalized sum of weights and a standard Gaussian random variable in the Wasserstein and Kolmogorov metrics.

Graphical models with heavy-tailed factors can be used to model extremal dependence or causality between extreme events. In a Bayesian network, variables are recursively defined in terms of their parents according to a directed acyclic graph (DAG). We focus on max-linear graphical models with respect to a special type of graph, which we call a tree of transitive tournaments. The latter is a block graph combining in a tree-like structure a finite number of transitive tournaments, each of which is a DAG in which every two nodes are connected. We study the limit of the joint tails of the max-linear model conditionally on the event that a given variable exceeds a high threshold. Under a suitable condition, the limiting distribution involves the factorization into independent increments along the shortest trail between two variables, thereby imitating the behaviour of a Markov random field.

We are also interested in the identifiability of the model parameters in the case when some variables are latent and only a subvector is observed. It turns out that the parameters are identifiable under a criterion on the nodes carrying the latent variables which is easy and quick to check.

The purpose of this study is to present a subgeometric convergence formula for the stationary distribution of the finite-level M/G/1-type Markov chain when taking its infinite-level limit, where the upper boundary level goes to infinity. This study is carried out using the fundamental deviation matrix, which is a block-decomposition-friendly solution to the Poisson equation of the deviation matrix. The fundamental deviation matrix provides a difference formula for the respective stationary distributions of the finite-level chain and the corresponding infinite-level chain. The difference formula plays a crucial role in the derivation of the main result of this paper, and the main result is used, for example, to derive an asymptotic formula for the loss probability in the MAP/GI/1/N queue.

We determine almost sure limits of rescaled intrinsic volumes of the construction steps of fractal percolation in ${\mathbb R}^d$ for any dimension $d\geq 1$. We observe a factorization of these limit variables which allows one, in particular, to determine their expectations and covariance structure. We also show the convergence of the rescaled expectations and variances of the intrinsic volumes of the construction steps to the expectations and variances of the limit variables, and we give rates for this convergence in some cases. These results significantly extend our previous work, which addressed only limits of expectations of intrinsic volumes.

Inaccuracy and information measures based on cumulative residual entropy are quite useful and have received considerable attention in many fields, such as statistics, probability, and reliability theory. In particular, many authors have studied cumulative residual inaccuracy between coherent systems based on system lifetimes. In a previous paper (Bueno and Balakrishnan, Prob. Eng. Inf. Sci. 36, 2022), we discussed a cumulative residual inaccuracy measure for coherent systems at component level, that is, based on the common, stochastically dependent component lifetimes observed under a non-homogeneous Poisson process. In this paper, using a point process martingale approach, we extend this concept to a cumulative residual inaccuracy measure between non-explosive point processes and then specialize the results to Markov occurrence times. If the processes satisfy the proportional risk hazard process property, then the measure determines the Markov chain uniquely. Several examples are presented, including birth-and-death processes and pure birth process, and then the results are applied to coherent systems at component level subject to Markov failure and repair processes.

This paper investigates tail asymptotics of stationary distributions and quasi-stationary distributions (QSDs) of continuous-time Markov chains on subsets of the non-negative integers. Based on the so-called flux-balance equation, we establish identities for stationary measures and QSDs, which we use to derive tail asymptotics. In particular, for continuous-time Markov chains with asymptotic power law transition rates, tail asymptotics for stationary distributions and QSDs are classified into three types using three easily computable parameters: (i) super-exponential distributions, (ii) exponential-tailed distributions, and (iii) sub-exponential distributions. Our approach to establish tail asymptotics of stationary distributions is different from the classical semimartingale approach, and we do not impose ergodicity or moment bound conditions. In particular, the results also hold for explosive Markov chains, for which multiple stationary distributions may exist. Furthermore, our results on tail asymptotics of QSDs seem new. We apply our results to biochemical reaction networks, a general single-cell stochastic gene expression model, an extended class of branching processes, and stochastic population processes with bursty reproduction, none of which are birth–death processes. Our approach, together with the identities, easily extends to discrete-time Markov chains.