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Using State-and-Transition Modeling to Account for Imperfect Detection in Invasive Species Management

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  20 January 2017

Leonardo Frid ,
Tracy Holcombe ,
Jeffrey T. Morisette ,
Aaryn D. Olsson ,
Lindy Brigham ,
Travis M. Bean ,
Julio L. Betancourt  and
Katherine Bryan
Leonardo Frid*
Affiliation:
Apex Resource Management Solutions Ltd., 1110 Lenora Rd., Bowen Island, BC, Canada, V0N 1G1
Tracy Holcombe
Affiliation:
U.S. Geological Survey, Fort Collins Science Center, Invasive Species Science Branch, 2150 Centre Ave., Building C, Fort Collins, CO 80526
Jeffrey T. Morisette
Affiliation:
DOI North Central Climate Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Fort Collins Science Center 2150 Centre Ave., Building C, Fort Collins, CO 80526-8118
Aaryn D. Olsson
Affiliation:
School of Earth Sciences and Environmental Sustainability, Northern Arizona University, 1298 S. Knoles Dr., Flagstaff, AZ 86011-5694
Lindy Brigham
Affiliation:
Southern Arizona Buffelgrass Coordination Center, 1955 E. 6th St., Tucson, AZ 85719
Travis M. Bean
Affiliation:
School of Natural Resources and Environment, University of Arizona, 1955 E. 6th St., Tucson, AZ 85719
Julio L. Betancourt
Affiliation:
U.S. Geological Survey, National Research Program, 1955 E. 6th St., Tucson, AZ 85719
Katherine Bryan
Affiliation:
ESSA Technologies Ltd., 600-2695 Granville St., Vancouver, BC, Canada V6H 3H4
*
Corresponding author's E-mail: leonardo.frid@apexrms.com
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Abstract

Buffelgrass, a highly competitive and flammable African bunchgrass, is spreading rapidly across both urban and natural areas in the Sonoran Desert of southern and central Arizona. Damages include increased fire risk, losses in biodiversity, and diminished revenues and quality of life. Feasibility of sustained and successful mitigation will depend heavily on rates of spread, treatment capacity, and cost–benefit analysis. We created a decision support model for the wildland–urban interface north of Tucson, AZ, using a spatial state-and-transition simulation modeling framework, the Tool for Exploratory Landscape Scenario Analyses. We addressed the issues of undetected invasions, identifying potentially suitable habitat and calibrating spread rates, while answering questions about how to allocate resources among inventory, treatment, and maintenance. Inputs to the model include a state-and-transition simulation model to describe the succession and control of buffelgrass, a habitat suitability model, management planning zones, spread vectors, estimated dispersal kernels for buffelgrass, and maps of current distribution. Our spatial simulations showed that without treatment, buffelgrass infestations that started with as little as 80 ha (198 ac) could grow to more than 6,000 ha by the year 2060. In contrast, applying unlimited management resources could limit 2060 infestation levels to approximately 50 ha. The application of sufficient resources toward inventory is important because undetected patches of buffelgrass will tend to grow exponentially. In our simulations, areas affected by buffelgrass may increase substantially over the next 50 yr, but a large, upfront investment in buffelgrass control could reduce the infested area and overall management costs.

Keywords

Buffelgrass, Pennisetum ciliare (L.) LinkBuffelgrassSouthern Arizona Buffelgrass Coordination CenterSABCCdecision support toolsTool for Exploratory Landscape Scenario Analyses (TELSA)maxentinventoryEDRR
Type
Research
Information
Invasive Plant Science and Management , Volume 6 , Issue 1 , March 2013 , pp. 36 - 47
Copyright
Copyright © Weed Science Society of America 

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