Skip to main content Accessibility help
×
Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-4rdpn Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-18T04:26:28.908Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

15 - Evolutionary economic dynamics: persistent cycles, disruptive technology and the trade-off between stability and complexity

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  22 September 2009

Ping Chen
Affiliation:
Research Fellow Ilya Prigogine Center for Studies in Statistical Mechanics and Complex Systems, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas, United States
Kurt Dopfer
Affiliation:
Universität St Gallen, Switzerland
Get access

Summary

Introduction: bridging the gap between economics and biology

Alfred Marshall once remarked that economics should be considered closer to biology than to mechanics (Marshall, 1890). Living systems have two essential features: life rhythms, and the birth/death process. However, the current economic framework is far from Marshall's dream: economic order is widely formulated by a steady-state solution plus random noise. Can we bridge the gap between equilibrium economics and evolutionary biology?

There are two fundamental problems in theoretical economics: the nature of persistent business cycles, and the diversity in developing the division of labour. To study these problems, there are two different perspectives in economic dynamics: the equilibrium-mechanical approach, and the evolution-biological approach.

The existence of persistent business cycles and chronic excess capacity is hard to explain by using equilibrium models in macroeconometrics. External noise cannot maintain persistent cycles in the Frisch model (see Chen, 1999); aggregate fluctuations in the Lucas micro-foundations model are too weak for generating large macro-fluctuations according to the principle of large numbers (Lucas, 1972, Chen, 2002); and random walk and Brownian motion are not capable of explaining persistent fluctuations in macro-indicators (Chen, 2001). Adam Smith once observed that the division of labour was limited by the extent of the market (Smith, 1776). George Stigler noted that the above Smith theorem was not compatible with the Smith theory of the ‘invisible hand’ (Stigler, 1951). Joseph Needham asked why capitalism and science originated in Western Europe, not in China or other civilizations (Needham, 1954).

Type
Chapter
Information
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2005

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Arrow, K. J. (1962), ‘The economic implications of learning by doing’, Review of Economic Studies 29: 155–73CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Arthur, W. B. (1994), Increasing Returns and Path Dependence in the Economy, Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press
Barnett, W. A., and P. Chen (1988), ‘The aggregation-theoretic monetary aggregates are chaotic and have strange attractors: an econometric application of mathematical chaos’, in W. A. Barnett, E. Berndt and H. White (eds.), Dynamic Economic Modeling, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 199–246CrossRef
Bartholomew, D. J. (1982), Stochastic Models for Social Processes, 3rd edn., New York: Wiley
Becker, G. S., and Murphy, K. M. (1992), ‘The division of labor, coordination costs, and knowledge’, Quarterly Journal of Economics 107(4): 1137–60CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Benhabib, J. (1992), Cycle and Chaos in Economic Equilibrium, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press
Black, F., and Scholes, M. (1973), ‘The pricing of options and corporate liabilities’, Journal of Political Economy 81(3): 637–54CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brock, W. A., and Sayers, C. (1988), ‘Is the business cycle characterized by deterministic chaos?’, Journal of Monetary Economics 22: 71–80CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brush, S. G. (1983), Statistical Physics and the Atomic Theory of Matter from Boyle and Newton to Landau and Onsager, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press
Buchanan, J. M. (1991), ‘Economics in the post-socialist century’, Economic Journal 404: 15–21CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carlton, D. W., and J. M. Perloff (1994), Industrial Organization, 2nd edn., New York: HarperCollins
Chen, P. (1987), ‘Origin of division of labour and a stochastic mechanism of differentiability’, European Journal of Operation Research 30: 246–50CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chen, P. (1988), ‘Empirical and theoretical evidence of monetary chaos’, System Dynamics Review 4: 81–108CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chen, P. (1991), ‘Needham's question and China's evolution: cases of nonequilibrium social transition’, in G. P. Scott (ed.), Time, Rhythms, and Chaos in the New Dialogue with Nature, Ames, IA: Iowa State University Press, 177–98
Chen, P. (1992), ‘Imitation, learning, and communication: central or polarized patterns in collective actions’, in A. Babloyantz (ed.), Self-Organization, Emerging Properties and Learning, New York: Plenum, 279–86
Chen, P. (1993a), ‘Searching for economic chaos: a challenge to econometric practice and nonlinear tests’, in R. H. Day and P. Chen (eds.), Nonlinear Dynamics and Evolutionary Economics, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 217–53
Chen, P. (1993b), ‘China's challenge to economic orthodoxy: Asian reform as an evolutionary, self-organizing process’, China Economic Review 4: 137–42CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chen, P. (1996a), ‘Trends, shocks, persistent cycles in evolving economy: business cycle measurement in time-frequency representation’, in W. A. Barnett, A. P. Kirman and M. Salmon (eds.), Nonlinear Dynamics and Economics, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 307–31
Chen, P. (1996b), ‘Random walk or color chaos on the stock market? Time-frequency analysis of S&P indexes’, Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics 1(2): 87–103Google Scholar
Chen, P. (1999), The Frisch Model of Business Cycles – A Spurious Doctrine, but a Mysterious Success, Working Paper no. E1999–007, China Center for Economic Research, Peking University, Beijing
Chen, P. (2001), The Nature of Persistent Business Cycles: Random Shocks, Microfoundations, or Color Chaos?, paper presented at the American Economic Association meeting's session on economic complexity, New Orleans, 7 January
Chen, P. (2002), ‘Microfoundations of macroeconomic fluctuations and the laws of probability theory: the principle of large numbers vs. rational expectations arbitrage’, Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 49: 327–44CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Christensen, C. M. (1997), The Innovator's Dilemma: When New Technologies Cause Great Firms to Fail, Boston: Harvard Business School Press
Coase, R. H. (1960), ‘The problem of social cost’, Journal of Law and Economics 3(1): 1–44CrossRefGoogle Scholar
DeLong, J. B., Shleifer, A., Summers, L. H. and Waldmann, R. J. (1990), ‘Positive feedback investment strategies and destabilizing rational speculation’, Journal of Finance 45(2): 379–95CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Friedman, M. (1953), ‘The case of flexible exchange rates’, in M. Friedman, Essays in Positive Economics, Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 157–203
Frisch, R. (1933), ‘Propagation problems and impulse problems in dynamic economics’, in K. Koch (ed.), Economic Essays in Honour of Gustav Cassel, London: Cass, 171–206
Frisch, R. (1981), ‘From Utopian theory to practical applications: the case of econo-metrics’, American Economic Review 71(6): 1–16Google Scholar
Goodwin, R. M. (1951), ‘The non-linear accelerator and the persistence of business cycles’, Econometrica 19: 1–17CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Griliches, Z. (1957), ‘Hybrid corn: an exploration in the economics of technological change’, Econometrica 25(4): 501–22CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Grossman, S., and Stiglitz, J. (1980), ‘On the impossibility of informationally efficient markets’, American Economic Review 70(3): 393–408Google Scholar
Hall, R. E. (1986), Chronic Excess Capacity in U.S. Industry, Working Paper Series no. 1973, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA.
Hodrick, R. J., and E. C. Prescott (1981), Post-War US Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation, Discussion Paper no. 451, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh
Houthakker, H. S. (1956), ‘Economics and biology: specialization and speciation’, Kyklos 9(2): 181–89CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Huang, P. C. C. (1985), The Peasent Economy and Social Change in North China, Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press
Leontief, W. W. (1936), ‘The fundamental assumption of Mr Keynes’ monetary theory of unemployment’, Quarterly Journal of Economics 51: 192–97CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Li, H. J. (2002), Which Stochastic Process Has Better Description of Micro-foundations of Macroeconomic Fluctuations?, thesis, Department of Mathematical Finance, Peking University, Beijing
Lucas, R. E. (1972), ‘Expectations and the neutrality of money’, Journal of Economic Theory 4: 103–24CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lucas, R. E. (1981), Studies in Business-Cycle Theory, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
Marshall, A. (1890), Principles of Economics, London: Macmillan (8th edn., 1920, London: Macmillan; 9th variorum edn., 1961, London: Macmillan)
May, R. M. (1974), Stability and Complexity in Model Ecosystems, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press
Moore, G. A. (1995), Inside the Tornado: Marketing Strategies from Silicon Valley's Cutting Edge, New York: HarperBusiness
Nagle, T. T., and R. K. Holden (1995), The Strategy and Tactics of Pricing: A Guide to Profitable Decision Making, Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall
Needham, J. (1954), Science and Civilization in China, vol. Ⅰ, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press
Nelson, C. R., and Plosser, C. I. (1982), ‘Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series: some evidence and implications’, Journal of Monetary Economics 1: 139–62CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pianka, E. R. (1983), Evolutionary Ecology, 3rd edn., New York: Harper & Row
Pomeranz, K. (2000), The Great Divergence: Europe, China, and the Making of the Modern World Economy, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press
Porter, M. E. (1980), Competitive Strategy, Techniques for Analyzing Industries and Competitors, New York: Free Press
Prigogine, I., Nicolis, G. and Babloyantz, A. (1972), ‘Thermodynamics of evolution’, Physics Today 25(11): 23–28; 25(12): 38–44CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Qian, S., and D. Chen (1996), Introduction to Joint Time-Frequency Analysis, Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall
Ross, S. (1976), ‘Return, risk, and arbitrage’, in I. Friend and J. Bicksler (eds.), Risk and Return in Finance, Cambridge, MA: Ballinger, 189–218
Rostow, W. W. (1990), The Stages of Economic Growth, 3rd edn., Oxford: Oxford University Press
Samuelson, P. A. (1939), ‘Interactions between the multiplier analysis and the principle of acceleration’, Review of Economic Statistics 21: 75–78CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schumpeter, J. A. (1939), Business Cycles: A Theoretical, Historical, and Statistical Analysis of the Capitalist Process, New York: McGraw-Hill
Simon, H. (1957), Models of Man, New York: Wiley
Smith, A. (1776), The Wealth of Nations, reprinted 1981, Indianapolis: Liberty Classics
Solow, R. (1956), ‘A contribution to the theory of economic growth’, Quarterly Journal of Economics 70(1): 65–94CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stigler, G. J. (1951), ‘The division of labor is limited by the extent of the market’, Journal of Political Economy 59(3): 185–93CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Uhlenbeck, G. E., and Ornstein, L. S. (1930), ‘On the theory of Brownian motion’, Physical Review 36(3): 823–41CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Weber, M. (1930), The Protestant Ethic and the Spirit of Capitalism, London: Allen & Unwin
Weston, J. F., K. S. Chung and J. A. Siu (1998), Takeovers, Restructuring, and Corporate Governance, Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall
Wiener, N. (1953), Cybernetics, New York: The Technology Press of MIT and Wiley
Yang, X., and Borland, J. (1991), ‘A microeconomic mechanism for economic growth’, Journal of Political Economy 99(3): 460–82CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Zeng, W. (2004), Stock Price Fluctuations are Characterized by the Geometric Brownian Motion or the Birth-Death Process?, thesis, Department of Financial Mathematics, Peking University, Beijing
Zhang, H. (2003), Biological Behavior in Firm Competition, student research note, China Center for Economic Reasearch, Peking University, Beijng

Save book to Kindle

To save this book to your Kindle, first ensure coreplatform@cambridge.org is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about saving to your Kindle.

Note you can select to save to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be saved to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

Available formats
×

Save book to Dropbox

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Dropbox.

Available formats
×

Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

Available formats
×