Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-v9fdk Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-10T18:16:56.764Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Preference-Based Arguments for Probabilism

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 April 2022

David Christensen
David Christensen*
Affiliation:
Department of Philosophy, University of Vermont
*
†Send requests for reprints to the author, Department of Philosophy, University of Vermont, 70 South Williams Street, Burlington, VT 05401.
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Both Representation Theorem Arguments and Dutch Book Arguments support taking probabilistic coherence as an epistemic norm. Both depend on connecting beliefs to preferences, which are not clearly within the epistemic domain. Moreover, these connections are standardly grounded in questionable definitional/metaphysical claims. The paper argues that these definitional/metaphysical claims are insupportable. It offers a way of reconceiving Representation Theorem arguments which avoids the untenable premises. It then develops a parallel approach to Dutch Book Arguments, and compares the results. In each case preference-defects serve as a diagnostic tool, indicating purely epistemic defects.

Type
Research Article
Information
Philosophy of Science , Volume 68 , Issue 3 , September 2001 , pp. 356 - 376
Copyright
Copyright © Philosophy of Science Association 2001

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

‡

Thanks to Mark Kaplan, Hilary Kornblith, and Patrick Maher and three anonymous referees for helpful discussions or comments on earlier drafts.

References

Armendt, Brad (1993), “Dutch Books, Additivity, and Utility Theory”, Philosophical Topics XXI, 1: 1–20.10.5840/philtopics19932111CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chan, Sin yee (forthcoming), “The Standing Emotions”, Southern Journal of Philosophy.Google Scholar
Christensen, David (1996), “Dutch-Book Arguments Depragmatized: Epistemic Consistency for Partial Believers”, Journal of Philosophy XCIII, 9: 450–479.Google Scholar
Eells, Ellery (1982), Rational Decision and Causality. New York: Cambridge.10.1017/CBO9781316534823CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hellman, Geoffrey (1997), “Bayes and Beyond”, Philosophy of Science 64, 2: 191–221.10.1086/392548CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Howson, Colin and Urbach, Peter (1993), Scientific Reasoning: The Bayesian Approach, 2nd. ed. Chicago: Open Court.Google Scholar
Joyce, James M. (1998), “A Nonpragmatic Vindication of Probabilism”, Philosophy of Science 65, 4: 575–603.10.1086/392661CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kaplan, Mark (1996), Decision Theory as Philosophy. New York: Cambridge.10.1017/CBO9780511804847CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Maher, Patrick (1993), Betting on Theories. New York: Cambridge.10.1017/CBO9780511527326CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Maher, Patrick (1997), “Depragmatized Dutch Book Arguments”, Philosophy of Science 64, 2: 291–305.10.1086/392552CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pereboom, Derk (1991), “Why a Scientific Realist Cannot Be a Functionalist”, Synthese 88: 341–358.10.1007/BF00413552CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ramsey, Frank P. (1926), “Truth and Probability”, in The Foundations of Mathematics. Totowa, NJ: Littlefield, Adams, 1965.10.1112/plms/s2-25.1.338CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Savage, Leonard J. (1954), The Foundations of Statistics. New York: John Wiley & Sons.Google Scholar
Vineberg, Susan (1998), “Can the Dutch Book Argument Really be Depragmatized?” APA Central Division.Google Scholar
Zynda, Lyle (2000), “Representation Theorems and Realism about Degrees of Belief”, Philosophy of Science 67: 45–69.10.1086/392761CrossRefGoogle Scholar