Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-lj6df Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-18T05:49:28.515Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Cognitive expertise research and knowledge engineering

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  07 July 2009

Fergus Bolger
Affiliation:
University College London, Gower Street, London WCIE 6BT, UK

Abstract

This paper is a review of research into cognitive expertise. The review is organized in terms of a simple model of the knowledge and cognitive processes that might be expected to be enhanced in experts relative to non-experts. This focus on cognitive competence underlying expert performance permits the identification of skills and knowledge that we might wish to capture and model in expert systems. The competence perspective also indicates areas of weakness in human experts. In these areas, we might wish to support or replace the expert with, for example, a normative system rather than attempting to model his or her knowledge.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 1995

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Anderson, JR, 1982. “Acquisition of cognitive skillPsychological Review 89 369406.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Anderson, JR, 1990. Cognitive Psychology and its Implications (3rd ed.), Freeman.Google Scholar
Anzai, Y, 1991. “Learning and use of representations for physics expertise” In: Ericsson, KA and Smith, J (eds.), Toward a General Theory of Expertise, pp 6492, Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Balthasar, HU, Boschi, RAA and Menke, MM, 1978. “Calling the shots in R and D” Harvard Business Review 0506, 151160.Google Scholar
Bamber, EM, 1983. “Expert judgment in the audit team: A source reliability approachJournal of Accounting Research 21 396412.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bennet, HL, 1983. “Remembering drink orders: The memory skill of cocktail waitressesHuman Learning 2 157169.Google Scholar
Blattberg, RC and Hoch, SJ, 1989. “Database models and managerial intuition: 50% model and 50% manager”. Report from the Center for Decision Research, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bolger, F and Wright, G, 1992. “Reliability and validity in expert judgment” In: Wright, G and Bolger, F (eds.), Expertise and Decision Support, pp 4776, Plenum.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bolger, F and Wright, G, 1994. “Assessing the quality of expert judgment: Issues and analysisDecision Support Systems 11 124CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bolger, F, Wright, G, Rowe, G, Gammack, J and Wood, R, 1989. “LUST for life: Developing expert systems for life assurance underwriting” In: Shadbolt, N (ed.), Research and Development in Expert Systems VI, pp 128139, Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Bunn, D, 1992. “Synthesis of expert judgment and statistical forecasting models for decision support” In: Wright, G and Bolger, F (eds.), Expertise and Decision Support, pp 251268, Plenum.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Camerer, CF, 1981. “The validity and utility of expert judgment.” Unpublished doctoral dissertation, University of Chicago.Google Scholar
Camerer, CF and Johnson, EJ, 1991. “The process-performance paradox in expert judgment: How can experts know so much and predict so badly?” In: Ericsson, KA and Smith, J (eds.), Toward a General Theory of Expertise, pp 195217, Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Casey, C and Selling, TI, 1986. “The effect of task predictability and prior probability disclosure on judgment quality and confidenceThe Accounting Review 61 302317.Google Scholar
Catell, RB, 1963. “The personality and motivation of the researcher from measurements of contemporaries and from bibliography” In: Taylor, CW and Barron, F (eds.), Scientific Creativity: Its Recognition and Development, pp 119131, Wiley.Google Scholar
Chalos, P, 1985. “The superior performance of loan review committeeJournal of Commercial Bank Lending 68 6066.Google Scholar
Charness, N, 1989. “Expertise in chess and bridge” In: Klahr, D and Kotovsky, K (eds.), Complex Information Processing: The Impact of Herbert A. Simon, pp 183208, Erlbaum.Google Scholar
Chase, WG and Ericsson, KA, 1981. “Skilled memory In: Anderson, JR (ed), Cognitive Skills and their Acquisition, pp 141189.Google Scholar
Chase, WG and Simon, HA, 1973. “The mind's eye in chess” In: Chase, WG (ed), Visual Information Processing, pp 215281, Academic Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chi, MTH, Bassok, M, Lewis, MW, Reimann, P and Glaser, R, 1987. “Self-explanations: How students study and use examples in learning to solve problemsCognitive Science 13 145182.Google Scholar
Chi, MTH, Glaser, R and Rees, E, 1982. “Expertise in problem solving” In: Sternberg, RS (ed), Advances in the Psychology of Human Intelligence (Vol. 1), pp 175, Erlbaum.Google Scholar
Chi, MTH, Glaser, R and Farr, MJ (eds), 1988. The Nature of Expertise, Erlbaum.Google Scholar
Christensen-Szalanski, JJJ, and Bushyhead, JB, 1981. “Physicians' use of probabilistic information in a real clinical settingJournal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance 7 928935.Google Scholar
Christensen-Szalanski, JJJ, Beck, DE, Christensen-Szalanski, CM and Koepsell, TD, 1983. “Effects of expertise and experience on risk judgmentsJournal of Applied Psychology 68 278284.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
de Groot, A, 1978. Thought and Choice in Chess, Mouton. (Originally published in 1946.)Google Scholar
Dolan, JG, Bordley, DR and Mushlin, AI, 1986. “An evaluation of clinicians' subjective prior probability estimatesMedical Decision Making 6 216223.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Dowie, J and Elstein, A, 1988. Professional Judgement: A reader in clinical decision making, Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Dube-Rioux, L and Russo, JE, 1988. “An availability bias in professional judgmentJournal of Behavioural Decision Making 1 223237.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ebbesen, E and Konecni, V, 1975. “Decision making and information integration in the courts: The setting of bailJournal of Personality and Social Psychology 32 805821.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Eddy, DM, 1982. “Probabilistic reasoning in clinical medicine: problens and opportunities” In: Kahneman, D, Slovic, P and Tversky, A (eds.), Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Edwards, W, Phillips, LD, Hays, WL and Goodman, BC, 1968. “Probabilistic information processing systemsIEEE Transactions on Systems Science and Cybernetics 4 248265.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Egan, DE and Schwartz, BJ, 1979. “Chunking in recall of symbolic drawingsMemory and Cognition 7 149158.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Einhorn, HJ, 1974. “Expert judgment: Some necessary conditions and an exampleJournal of Applied Psychology 59 562571.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ellis, SH, 1973. “Structure and experience in the matching and reproduction of chess patterns.” Unpublished doctoral dissertation, Carnegie-Mellon University.Google Scholar
Ericsson, KA, 1985. “Memory skillCanadian Journal of Psychology 39 188231.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ericsson, KA and Polson, PG, 1988. “Memory for restaurant orders” In: Chi, M, Glaser, R and Farr, M (eds.), The Nature of Expertise, pp 2370, Erlbaum.Google Scholar
Ericsson, KA and Smith, J, 1991. “Prospects and limits of the empirical study of expertise: An introduction” In: Ericsson, KA and Smith, J (eds.), Toward a General Theory of Expertise, pp 138, Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Ericsson, KA and Staszeweski, J, 1989. “Skilled memory and expertise: Mechanisms of exceptional performance” In: Klahr, D and Kotovsky, K (eds.), Complex Information Processing: The Impact of Herbert A. Simon, pp 183208, Erlbaum.Google Scholar
Evans, J, St, BT, 1989. “Some causes of bias in expert opinionThe Psychologist 2 112113.Google Scholar
Gaeth, GJ and Chanteau, J, 1984. “Reducing the influence of irrelevant information on experienced decision makersOrganizational Behavior and Human Performance 33 263282.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Galton, F, 1869. Hereditary Genius, Macmillan.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goldberg, LR, 1970. “Man versus model of man: A rationale, plus some evidence, for a method of improving clinical inferencesPsychological Bulletin 73 422432.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hinsley, DA, Hayes, JR and Simon, HA, 1977. “From words to equations: Meaning and representation in algebra word problem” In: Just, MA and Carpenter, PA (eds.), Cognitive Processes in Comprehension, pp 89108, Erlbaum.Google Scholar
Holding, DH, 1985. The Psychology of Chess Skill, Erlbaum.Google Scholar
Johnson, EJ, 1988. “Expertise and decision under uncertainty: Performance and process” In: Chi, M, Glaser, R and Farr, M (eds.), The Nature of Expertise, Erlbaum.Google Scholar
Kahneman, D, Slovic, P and Tversky, A (eds.), 1982. Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Katz, J, 1984. “Why doctors don't disclose uncertaintyHastings Centre Report 14 3544.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Kelley, HP, 1964. “Memory abilities: A factor analysisPsychometric Society Monographs 11 153.Google Scholar
Keren, G, 1987. “Facing uncertainty in the game of bridge: A calibration studyOrganizational Behaviour and Human Decision Processes 39 98114.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Levi, KR, 1986. “Numerical likelihood estimates from physicians and linear models.” Unpublished doctoral dissertation, University of Michigan.Google Scholar
Lichtenstein, S, Fischhoff, B and Phillips, LD, 1982. “Calibration of probabilities: The state of the art to 1980” In: Kahneman, D, Slovic, P and Tversky, A (eds.), Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
McKeithen, KB, Reitman, JS, Rueter, HH and Hirtle, SC, 1981. “Knowledge organization and skill differences in computer programmersCognitive Psychology 13 307325.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Meehl, PE, 1954. Clinical versus Statistical Prediction. A Theoretical Analysis and Review of the Evidence, University of Minnesota Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Meehl, PE, 1986. “Causes and effects of my disturbing little bookJournal of Personality Assessment 50 370375.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Milojovic, JD, 1982. “Chess imagery in novice and masterJournal of Mental Imagery 6 125144.Google Scholar
Mumpower, JL, Phillips, LD, Renn, O and Uppuluri, VRR (eds.), 1987. Expert Judgment and Expert Systems, Springer-Verlag.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Murphy, AH and Brown, BG, 1985. “A comparative evaluation of objective and subjective weather forecasts in the United States” In: Wright, G (ed.), Behavioral Decision Making, Plenum.Google Scholar
Murphy, AH and Winkler, RL, 1977. “Reliability of subjective probability forecasts of precipitation and temperatureApplied Statistics 26 4147.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Murphy, GL and Wright, JC, 1984. “Changes in conceptual structure with expertise: Differences between real-world experts and novicesJournal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory and Cognition 10 144155.Google Scholar
Nagy, GF, 1981. “How are personnel selection decisions made? An analysis of decision strategies in a simulated personnel selection task.” Unpublished doctoral dissertation, Kansas State University.Google Scholar
Northcraft, MA and Neale, GB, 1987. “Experts, amateurs and real-estate: An anchoring and adjust perspective in property pricing decisionsOrganizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 39 8497.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Oskamp, S, 1965. “Overconfidence in case-study judgmentsJournal of Consulting Psychology 29 261265.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Patel, VL and Groen, GL, 1991. “The general and specific nature of medical expertise: A critical look” In: Ericsson, KA and Smith, J (eds.), Toward a General Theory of Expertise, pp 93125, Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Reagan-Cirincione, P and Rohrbaugh, J, 1992. “Decision conferencing: A unique approach to the behavioral aggregation of expert judgment” In: Wright, G and Bolger, F (eds.), Expertise and Decision Support, pp 181202, Plenum.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rowe, G, 1992. “Perspectives on expertise in the aggregation of judgment” In: Wright, G and Bolger, F (eds.), Expertise and Decision Support, pp 155180, Plenum.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Saariluoma, P, 1990. “Chess players' search for task relevant cues: Are chunks relevant?” In: Brogan, D (ed.), Visual Search, pp 115121, Taylor & Francis.Google Scholar
Salthouse, TA, 1984. “Effects of age and skill in typingJournal of Experimental Psychology: General 113 345371.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Salthouse, TA, 1985. “Anticipatory processing in transcription typingJournal of Applied Psychology 70 264271.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Schaefer, RE, Borcherding, K and Laemmerhold, C, 1977. “Consistency of future event assessments” In: Jungermann, H and de Zeeuw, G (eds.), Decision Making and Change in Human Affairs, pp331345, Reidel.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schwartz, S and Griffin, T, 1986. Medical Thinking: The Psychology of Medical Judgment and Decision Making, Springer-Verlag.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Selnes, F and Troye, SV, 1989. “Buying expertise, information search and problem solvingJournal of Economic Psychology 10 411428.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shanteau, J, Grier, M, Johnson, J and Berner, E, 1981. “Improving decision making skills of nurses” In: ORSA-TIMS Proceedings, Houston, Texas: ORSA-TIMS.Google Scholar
Shanteau, J, 1987. “Psychological characteristics of expert decision makers” In: Mumpower, JL, Renn, O, Phillips, LD and Uppuluri, VRR (eds.), Expert Judgment and Expert Systems, Springer-Verlag.Google Scholar
Simon, HA and Chase, WG, 1973. “Skill in chessAmerican Scientist 61 394403.Google Scholar
Sloboda, J, 1976. “Visual perception of musical notation: Registering pitch symbols in memoryQuarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology 28 116.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Slovic, P, 1969. “Analyzing the expert judge: A descriptive study of a stockbroker's decision processesJournal of Applied Psychology 53 255263.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Smith, JF and Kida, T, 1991. “Heuristics and biases: Expertise and task realism in auditingPsychological Bulletin 109 472489.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stael von Holstein, CS, 1971. “An experiment in probabilistic weather forecastingJournal of Applied Meteorology 10 635645.2.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stael von Holstein, CS, 1972. “Probabilistic forecasting: An experiment related to the stock marketOrganizational Behaviour and Human Performance 8 139158.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Teigen, KH, 1994. “Variants of subjective probabilities: concepts, norms and biases” In: Wright, G and Ayton, P (eds.), Subjective Probability, pp 211238, Wiley.Google Scholar
Tyler, LE, 1965. The Psychology of Human Differences, Appleton-Century-Crofts.Google Scholar
Wagenaar, WA and Keren, GB, 1986. “Does the expert know? The reliability of predictions and confidence ratings in experts” In: Hollnagel, E, Mancini, G and Woods, DD (eds.), Intelligent Decision Support in Process Environments, Springer-Verlag.Google Scholar
Waghorn, K, 1988. “Chess players' use of task-specific processes in a perceptual classification task.” Unpublished honors thesis, University of Waterloo.Google Scholar
Wallsten, TS and Budescu, DV, 1983. “Encoding subjective probabilities: a psychological and psychometric reviewManagement Science 29 151173.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Whitred, G and Zimmer, I, 1985. “The implications of distress prediction models for corporate lendingAccounting and Finance 25 113.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wright, G and Bolger, F (eds.), 1992. Expertise and Decision Support, Plenum.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wright, G, Rowe, G. Bolger, F and Gammack, J, 1994. “Coherence, calibration and expertise in judgmental probability forecastingOrganizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 57 125.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Yates, JF and Curley, SP, 1985. “Conditional distribution analysis of probabilistic forecastsJournal of Forecasting 4 6173.CrossRefGoogle Scholar