We consider the stochastic volatility model obtained by adding a compound Hawkes process to the volatility of the well-known Heston model. A Hawkes process is a self-exciting counting process with many applications in mathematical finance, insurance, epidemiology, seismology, and other fields. We prove a general result on the existence of a family of equivalent (local) martingale measures. We apply this result to a particular example where the sizes of the jumps are exponentially distributed. Finally, a practical application to efficient computation of exposures is discussed.

This paper develops a multivariate filter based on an unobserved component model to estimate the financial cycle. Our model features: (1) a dynamic relationship between the financial cycle and key variables; (2) time-varying shock volatility for trend and cycle components. We demonstrate that our approach not only exhibits superior early warning properties for banking crises but also outperforms commonly used indicators in terms of data fit for decomposition exercises, as evidenced by the higher marginal likelihood. We document three important properties of the financial cycle. First, the sensitivity of the financial cycle to changes in real estate valuations increased during the post-90s period. Second, the sensitivity of the cycle to changes in financial conditions displays volatility and country specificities. Finally, our reduced form estimates suggest that the banking crisis of 1988 was preceded by positive contributions from the risk appetite shock, while the primary source of vulnerabilities emanated from the housing market in the run-up to the Global Financial Crisis.

This paper examines the issue of derivative pricing within the framework of a fractional stochastic volatility model. We present a deterministic partial differential equation system to derive an approximate expression for the derivative price. The proposed approach allows for the stochastic volatility to be expressed as a composition of deterministic functions of time and a fractional Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process. We apply this method to the European option pricing under the fractional Stein–Stein volatility model, demonstrating its feasibility and reliability through numerical simulations. Our numerical simulations also illustrate the impact of the parameters in the fractional stochastic volatility model on the option price.

We study a stochastic differential equation with an unbounded drift and general Hölder continuous noise of order $\lambda \in (0,1)$. The corresponding equation turns out to have a unique solution that, depending on a particular shape of the drift, either stays above some continuous function or has continuous upper and lower bounds. Under some mild assumptions on the noise, we prove that the solution has moments of all orders. In addition, we provide its connection to the solution of some Skorokhod reflection problem. As an illustration of our results and motivation for applications, we also suggest two stochastic volatility models which we regard as generalizations of the CIR and CEV processes. We complete the study by providing a numerical scheme for the solution.

Commodity spot prices tend to revert to some long-term mean level and most commodity derivatives are based on futures prices, not on spot prices. So, we consider spread options on futures instead of spot or spot index, where the log spot price follows a mean-reverting process. The volatility of the mean-reverting process is driven by two different (fast and slow) scale factors. We use asymptotic analysis to obtain a closed-form approximation of the futures prices and a closed-form formula for the approximate prices of spread options on the futures. The overall improvement of our analytic formula over the classical Kirk–Bjerksund–Sternsland (KBS) formula is discussed via numerical experiments.

This paper studies the impact of immigration on the US macroeconomy. I identify structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) with time-varying parameters (TVPs) and stochastic volatility (SV) using a novel set of restrictions. The TVP-SV-SVARs are estimated on a quarterly sample including average labor productivity (ALP), hours worked, immigration, consumption, and term spread from 1953 to 2017. An immigration supply shock increases domestic ALP and hours worked over the business cycle horizons. Movements in immigration are explained by its own shock and to a lesser extent by the productivity and news shocks. IRFs driven by these shocks vary over the sample, especially around changes in immigration policy such as the Immigration Act of 1990. In contrast, the forecast error variance decompositions exhibit little change over the sample. Immigration plays an important role in the US macroeconomy.

We study the pricing of timer options in a class of stochastic volatility models, where the volatility is driven by two diffusions—one fast mean-reverting and the other slowly varying. Employing singular and regular perturbation techniques, full second-order asymptotics of the option price are established. In addition, we investigate an implied volatility in terms of effective maturity for the timer options, and derive its second-order expansion based on our pricing asymptotics. A numerical experiment shows that the price approximation formula has a high level of accuracy, and the implied volatility in terms of its effective maturity is illustrated.

We investigate the European call option pricing problem under the fractional stochastic volatility model. The stochastic volatility model is driven by both fractional Brownian motion and standard Brownian motion. We obtain an analytical solution of the European option price via the Itô’s formula for fractional Brownian motion, Malliavin calculus, derivative replication and the fundamental solution method. Some numerical simulations are given to illustrate the impact of parameters on option prices, and the results of comparison with other models are presented.

One of the most important advantages of an inflation target is that it helps to reduce uncertainty about future inflation. However, this confidence may be undermined if actual inflation continuously deviates from the target level. We examine how inflation uncertainty relates to the presence of an inflation target and deviations of inflation from the targeted level. Inflation uncertainty is quantified by means of an unobserved components stochastic volatility model that allows to distinguish between permanent and transitory inflation uncertainty. While long-term inflation appears largely stable in most economies, the short-term inflation uncertainty is found to be time-varying. Most notably, short-term inflation uncertainty is high if inflation rates are below the target level. This is particularly relevant for economies which are currently confronted with the presence of persistently low-inflation rates. Our findings suggest that announcing higher inflation targets as it is currently discussed may be costly in terms of provoking higher inflation uncertainty.

This paper studies the evolution of China’s exchange rate policy using real options theory. With intervention costs and ongoing uncertainty, intervention involves the exercise of an option. Increased uncertainty increases the value of this option. This “wait and see” effect leads the Central Bank to widen its intervention band. However, increased volatility also produces larger fluctuations in welfare, which creates a “fear of floating.” This induces the Central Bank to set a tighter band. To study this trade-off, our paper incorporates stochastic volatility into a new Keynesian target zone model and then calibrates it to data from China. We find that increased uncertainty leads to a tighter intervention band, both in the data and in the model. Hence, in China, “fear of floating” appears to dominate the “wait and see” effect.

We extend previous large deviations results for the randomised Heston model to the case of moderate deviations. The proofs involve the Gärtner–Ellis theorem and sharp large deviations tools.

In light of recent empirical research on jump activity, this article study the calibration of a new class of stochastic volatility models that include both jumps in return and volatility. Specifically, we consider correlated jump sizes and both contemporaneous and independent arrival of jumps in return and volatility. Based on the specifications of this model, we derive a closed-form relationship between the VIX index and latent volatility. Also, we propose a closed-form logarithmic likelihood formula by using the link to the VIX index. By estimating alternative models, we find that the general counting processes setting lead to better capturing of return jump behaviors. That is, the part where the return and volatility jump simultaneously and the part that jump independently can both be captured. In addition, the size of the jumps in volatility is, on average, positive for both contemporaneous and independent arrivals. However, contemporaneous jumps in the return are negative, but independent return jumps are positive. The sub-period analysis further supports above insight, and we find that the jumps in return and volatility increased significantly during the two recent economic crises.

We highlight a state variable misspecification with one accepted method to implement stochastic volatility (SV) in DSGE models when transforming the nonlinear state-innovation dynamics to its linear representation. Although the technique is more efficient numerically, we show that it is not exact but only serves as an approximation when the magnitude of SV is small. Not accounting for this approximation error may induce substantial spurious volatility in macroeconomic series, which could lead to incorrect inference about the performance of the model. We also show that, by simply lagging and expanding the state vector, one can obtain the correct state-space specification. Finally, we validate our augmented implementation approach against an established alternative through numerical simulation.

In this paper, we extend the framework of Klein [15] [Journal of Banking & Finance 20: 1211–1229] to a general model under the double exponential jump model with stochastic volatility on the underlying asset and the assets of the counterparty. Firstly, we derive the closed-form characteristic functions for this dynamic. Using the Fourier-cosine expansion technique, we get numerical solutions for vulnerable European put options based on the characteristic functions. The inverse fast Fourier transform method provides a fast numerical algorithm for the twice-exercisable vulnerable Bermuda put options. By virtue of the modified Geske and Johnson method, we obtain an approximate pricing formula of vulnerable American put options. Numerical simulations are made for investigating the impact of stochastic volatility on vulnerable options.

Pricing variance swaps have become a popular subject recently, and most research of this type come under Heston’s two-factor model. This paper is an extension of some recent research which used the dimension-reduction technique based on the Heston model. A new closed-form pricing formula focusing on a log-return variance swap is presented here, under the assumption that the underlying asset prices can be described by a mean-reverting Gaussian volatility model (Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process). Numerical tests in two respects using the Monte Carlo (MC) simulation are included. Moreover, we discuss a procedure of solving a quadratic differential equation with one variable. Our method can avoid the previously encountered limitations, but requires more time for calculation than other recent analytical discrete models.

This paper explores and develops alternative statistical representations and estimation approaches for dynamic mortality models. The framework we adopt is to reinterpret popular mortality models such as the Lee–Carter class of models in a general state-space modelling methodology, which allows modelling, estimation and forecasting of mortality under a unified framework. We propose alternative model identification constraints which are more suited to statistical inference in filtering and parameter estimation. We then develop a class of Bayesian state-space models which incorporate a priori beliefs about the mortality model characteristics as well as for more flexible and appropriate assumptions relating to heteroscedasticity that present in observed mortality data. To study long-term mortality dynamics, we introduce stochastic volatility to the period effect. The estimation of the resulting stochastic volatility model of mortality is performed using a recent class of Monte Carlo procedure known as the class of particle Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. We illustrate the framework using Danish male mortality data, and show that incorporating heteroscedasticity and stochastic volatility markedly improves model fit despite an increase of model complexity. Forecasting properties of the enhanced models are examined with long-term and short-term calibration periods on the reconstruction of life tables.

The valuation of perpetual timer options under the Hull–White stochastic volatility model is discussed here. By exploring the connection between the Hull–White model and the Bessel process and using time-change techniques, the triple joint distribution for the instantaneous volatility, the cumulative reciprocal volatility and the cumulative realized variance is obtained. An explicit analytical solution for the price of perpetual timer call options is derived as a Black–Scholes–Merton-type formula.

In this paper, we present a new pricing model for vulnerable options, with time-varying variances for each asset described by Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity processes and correlated with the return of the asset. By connecting the underlying asset and the counterparty's assets through the market factor channel, the proposed model also captures stochastic correlation between the underlying asset return and the return of the counterparty's assets. The correlation depends on the levels of the variances of both assets and the market index as well. In the proposed framework, the closed-form solution for vulnerable options is derived and numerical results are presented to investigate the impact of counterparty default risk.