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Animal disease events can lead to international trade restrictions which can vary in duration, products included, and geographical extent. Accounting for multilateral resistance between trading partners, a general gravity model of trade is estimated with a Hausman-Taylor and a Hausman-Taylor seemingly unrelated estimator to evaluate the trade quantity impact by commodity resulting from highly pathogenic poultry disease events in 24 exporting markets. Commodity specific results show that quantity traded and products demanded during a disease event differ by commodities. Understanding these impacts can better prepare exporters for potential changes in trade quantity given a disease event.
Involuntary mental imagery is elevated among people with bipolar disorder, and has been shown to shape biases in interpretation of ambiguous information. However, it is not clear whether biases in interpretation of ambiguous scenarios can be observed in those at risk for bipolar disorder, or whether involuntary imagery is related to such a bias.
In the present study, we extended a prominent model of bipolar cognition to an at-risk sample. We specifically tested whether positive interpretation bias and involuntary mental imagery are linked to a greater risk of bipolar disorder.
Young adults (N = 169) completed measures of risk for bipolar disorder (the Hypomanic Personality Scale [HPS]), interpretation bias, and involuntary mental imagery.
Higher scores on the HPS were significantly correlated with more positive interpretations of ambiguous scenarios (β = 0.29, p <. 01) and more frequent involuntary mental imagery (β = 0.22, p < .01). There was no evidence of an interaction between interpretation bias and mental imagery in predicting HPS score, β = .04, p = .62.
Further research is warranted to determine if intrusive imagery or interpretation bias influence the development of bipolar disorder over time in those at risk.
Disease surveillance in wildlife populations presents a logistical challenge, yet is critical in gaining a deeper understanding of the presence and impact of wildlife pathogens. Erinaceus coronavirus (EriCoV), a clade C Betacoronavirus, was first described in Western European hedgehogs (Erinaceus europaeus) in Germany. Here, our objective was to determine whether EriCoV is present, and if it is associated with disease, in Great Britain (GB). An EriCoV-specific BRYT-Green® real-time reverse transcription PCR assay was used to test 351 samples of faeces or distal large intestinal tract contents collected from casualty or dead hedgehogs from a wide area across GB. Viral RNA was detected in 10.8% (38) samples; however, the virus was not detected in any of the 61 samples tested from Scotland. The full genome sequence of the British EriCoV strain was determined using next generation sequencing; it shared 94% identity with a German EriCoV sequence. Multivariate statistical models using hedgehog case history data, faecal specimen descriptions and post-mortem examination findings found no significant associations indicative of disease associated with EriCoV in hedgehogs. These findings indicate that the Western European hedgehog is a reservoir host of EriCoV in the absence of apparent disease.
OBJECTIVES/SPECIFIC AIMS: To evaluate the ability of various techniques to track changes in body fluid volumes before and after a rapid infusion of saline. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: Eight healthy participants (5M; 3F) completed baseline measurements of 1) total body water using ethanol dilution and bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) and 2) blood volume, plasma volume and red blood cell (RBC) volume using carbon monoxide rebreathe technique and I-131 albumin dilution. Subsequently, 30mL saline/kg body weight was administered intravenously over 20 minutes after which BIA and ethanol dilution were repeated. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: On average, 2.29±0.35 L saline was infused with an average increase in net fluid input-output (I/O) of 1.56±0.29 L. BIA underestimated measured I/O by −3.4±7.9%, while ethanol dilution did not demonstrate a measurable change in total body water. Carbon monoxide rebreathe differed from I-131 albumin dilution measurements of blood, plasma and RBC volumes by +0.6±2.8%, −5.4±3.6%, and +11.0±4.7%, respectively. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE OF IMPACT: BIA is capable of tracking modest changes in total body water. Carbon monoxide rebreathe appears to be a viable alternative for the I-131 albumin dilution technique to determine blood volume. Together, these two techniques may be useful in monitoring fluid status in patients with impaired fluid regulation.
The present study aimed to examine the key influences on infant and child feeding practices among a Marshallese community at each social ecological level. It is the first study to examine the key influences on infant and child feeding practices with Marshallese immigrant women in the USA and helps fill a gap in the previous literature that has included other immigrant women.
Community-based participatory research design with twenty-seven participants taking part in four qualitative focus groups.
The study took place within the Marshallese community in Arkansas, USA.
Participants included Marshallese women with children aged 1–3 years and/or caregivers. Caregivers were defined as someone other than the parent who cares for children. Caregivers were often older women in the Marshallese community.
There were five primary themes within multiple levels of the Social Ecological Model. At the intrapersonal level, mothers’ and caregivers’ autonomy emerged. At the interpersonal level, child-led and familial influences emerged. At the organizational level, health-care provider influences emerged; and at the policy level, the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children emerged as the most salient influence.
Marshallese immigrant women’s infant and child feeding practices are influenced at intrapersonal, interpersonal, organizational and policy levels. Understanding these multidimensional influences is necessary to inform the creation of culturally tailored interventions to reduce health disparities within the Marshallese community.
Studies examining associations between fetal serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SRI) exposure and child autism spectrum disorder (ASD) diagnoses or delayed language remain mixed and rarely prospectively follow children or employ gold-standard assessments. We prospectively followed a cohort of mother–child dyads from pregnancy through early elementary school (N = 178), and obtained maternal and alternate–caregiver ratings of behaviors related to ASD (N = 137), as well as direct, gold-standard assessments of child ASD symptoms and pragmatic language among dyads who experienced prenatal depression and either took SRIs or were medication free during pregnancy (N = 44). Prenatal SRI exposure was related to maternal ratings of ASD-related behaviors (β = 0.24 95% confidence interval; CI [0.07, 0.48]), and, among boys, alternative caregiver ratings (males-only β = 0.28 95% CI [0.02, 0.55], females-only β = −0.21 95% CI [–0.63, 0.08]). However, results of our direct assessments suggest an association between SRI exposure and reduced pragmatic language scores (β = –0.27, 95% CI [–0.53, –0.01], but not ASD (Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule β = 0.14 95% CI [–0.15, 0.41]; Social Responsiveness Scale β = 0.08 95% CI [–0.25, 0.40]). These discrepancies point to issues regarding how ASD is assessed, and the possibility that SRIs may be more strongly associated with language or other broader behaviors that coincide with ASD. Larger prospective studies that incorporate thorough, gold-standard assessments of ASD, language, and other ASD-related behaviors are needed.
Objectives: Prior research has identified numerous genetic (including sex), education, health, and lifestyle factors that predict cognitive decline. Traditional model selection approaches (e.g., backward or stepwise selection) attempt to find one model that best fits the observed data, risking interpretations that only the selected predictors are important. In reality, several predictor combinations may fit similarly well but result in different conclusions (e.g., about size and significance of parameter estimates). In this study, we describe an alternative method, Information-Theoretic (IT) model averaging, and apply it to characterize a set of complex interactions in a longitudinal study on cognitive decline. Methods: Here, we used longitudinal cognitive data from 1256 late–middle aged adults from the Wisconsin Registry for Alzheimer’s Prevention study to examine the effects of sex, apolipoprotein E (APOE) ɛ4 allele (non-modifiable factors), and literacy achievement (modifiable) on cognitive decline. For each outcome, we applied IT model averaging to a set of models with different combinations of interactions among sex, APOE, literacy, and age. Results: For a list-learning test, model-averaged results showed better performance for women versus men, with faster decline among men; increased literacy was associated with better performance, particularly among men. APOE had less of an association with cognitive performance in this age range (∼40–70 years). Conclusions: These results illustrate the utility of the IT approach and point to literacy as a potential modifier of cognitive decline. Whether the protective effect of literacy is due to educational attainment or intrinsic verbal intellectual ability is the topic of ongoing work. (JINS, 2019, 25, 119–133)
Objectives: A major challenge in cognitive aging is differentiating preclinical disease-related cognitive decline from changes associated with normal aging. Neuropsychological test authors typically publish single time-point norms, referred to here as unconditional reference values. However, detecting significant change requires longitudinal, or conditional reference values, created by modeling cognition as a function of prior performance. Our objectives were to create, depict, and examine preliminary validity of unconditional and conditional reference values for ages 40–75 years on neuropsychological tests. Method: We used quantile regression to create growth-curve–like models of performance on tests of memory and executive function using participants from the Wisconsin Registry for Alzheimer’s Prevention. Unconditional and conditional models accounted for age, sex, education, and verbal ability/literacy; conditional models also included past performance on and number of prior exposures to the test. Models were then used to estimate individuals’ unconditional and conditional percentile ranks for each test. We examined how low performance on each test (operationalized as <7th percentile) related to consensus-conference–determined cognitive statuses and subjective impairment. Results: Participants with low performance were more likely to receive an abnormal cognitive diagnosis at the current visit (but not later visits). Low performance was also linked to subjective and informant reports of worsening memory function. Conclusions: The percentile-based methods and single-test results described here show potential for detecting troublesome within-person cognitive change. Development of reference values for additional cognitive measures, investigation of alternative thresholds for abnormality (including multi-test criteria), and validation in samples with more clinical endpoints are needed. (JINS, 2019, 25, 1–14)
Introduction: TREKK is a national knowledge mobilization network of clinicians, researchers and parents aimed at improving emergency care for children by increasing collaborations between general and pediatric emergency departments (ED). This study aimed to determine patterns of knowledge sharing within the network and identify connections, barriers and opportunities to obtaining pediatric information and training. Methods: Social network analysis (SNA) uses network theory to understand patterns of interaction. Two SNAs were conducted in 2014 and 2015 using an online network survey distributed to 37 general EDs. Data was analyzed using UCI Net and Netdraw to identify connections, knowledge sharing and knowledge brokers within the network. Building on these results, we then conducted 22 semi-structured follow-up interviews (2016) with healthcare professionals (HCPs) at General EDs across Canada, purposefully sampled to include individuals from connected and disconnected sites, as identified in the SNA. Interviews were analyzed by 2 reviewers using content and thematic analysis. Results: SNA data was analyzed for 135 participants across the network. Results from 2014 showed that the network was divided along provincial lines, with most individuals connecting with colleagues within their own institution. Results from 2015 showed more inter-site interconnectivity and a reduction in isolated sites over time from 17 to 3. Interview participants included physicians (59%) and nurses (41%) from 18 general EDs in urban (68%) and rural/remote (32%) Canada. HCPs sought information both formally and informally, by using guidelines, talking to colleagues, and attending pediatric related training sessions. Network structure and processes were felt to increase connections, support practice change, and promote standards of care. Participants identified personal, organizational and system-level barriers to information and skill acquisition, including resources and personal costs, geography, dissemination, and time. Providing easy access to information at the point of care was promoted through enhancing content visibility and by embedding resources into local systems. There remains a need to share successful methods of local dissemination and implementation across the network, and to leverage local professional champions such as clinical nurse liaisons. Conclusion: This study highlights the power of a network to increase connections between HCPs working in general and pediatric EDs. Findings reinforce the critical role of ongoing network evaluation to improve the design and delivery of knowledge mobilization initiatives.
In 2008, the Defense Advanced Research Project Agency commissioned a database known as the Integrated Crisis Early Warning System to serve as the foundation for models capable of detecting and predicting increases in political conflict worldwide. Such models, by signalling expected increases in political conflict, would help inform and prepare policymakers to react accordingly to conflict proliferation both domestically and internationally. Using data from the Integrated Crisis Early Warning System, we construct and test a self-exciting point process, or Hawkes process, model to describe and predict amounts of domestic, political conflict; we focus on Colombia and Venezuela as examples for this model. By comparing the accuracy of fitted models to the observed data, we find that we are able to closely describe occurrences of conflict in each country. Thus, using this model can allow policymakers to anticipate relative increases in the amount of domestic political conflict following major events.
As part of further investigations into three linked haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) cases in Wales and England, 21 rats from a breeding colony in Cherwell, and three rats from a household in Cheltenham were screened for hantavirus. Hantavirus RNA was detected in either the lungs and/or kidney of 17/21 (81%) of the Cherwell rats tested, higher than previously detected by blood testing alone (7/21, 33%), and in the kidneys of all three Cheltenham rats. The partial L gene sequences obtained from 10 of the Cherwell rats and the three Cheltenham rats were identical to each other and the previously reported UK Cherwell strain. Seoul hantavirus (SEOV) RNA was detected in the heart, kidney, lung, salivary gland and spleen (but not in the liver) of an individual rat from the Cherwell colony suspected of being the source of SEOV. Serum from 20/20 of the Cherwell rats and two associated HFRS cases had high levels of SEOV-specific antibodies (by virus neutralisation). The high prevalence of SEOV in both sites and the moderately severe disease in the pet rat owners suggest that SEOV in pet rats poses a greater public health risk than previously considered.
Healthy adults (n 30) participated in a placebo-controlled, randomised, double-blinded, cross-over study consisting of two 28 d treatments (β2-1 fructan or maltodextrin; 3×5 g/d) separated by a 14-d washout. Subjects provided 1 d faecal collections at days 0 and 28 of each treatment. The ability of faecal bacteria to metabolise β2-1 fructan was common; eighty-seven species (thirty genera, and four phyla) were isolated using anaerobic medium containing β2-1 fructan as the sole carbohydrate source. β2-1 fructan altered the faecal community as determined through analysis of terminal restriction fragment length polymorphisms and 16S rRNA genes. Supplementation with β2-1 fructan reduced faecal community richness, and two patterns of community change were observed. In most subjects, β2-1 fructan reduced the content of phylotypes aligning within the Bacteroides, whereas increasing those aligning within bifidobacteria, Faecalibacterium and the family Lachnospiraceae. In the remaining subjects, supplementation increased the abundance of Bacteroidetes and to a lesser extent bifidobacteria, accompanied by decreases within the Faecalibacterium and family Lachnospiraceae. β2-1 Fructan had no impact on the metagenome or glycoside hydrolase profiles in faeces from four subjects. Few relationships were found between the faecal bacterial community and various host parameters; Bacteroidetes content correlated with faecal propionate, subjects whose faecal community contained higher Bacteroidetes produced more caproic acid independent of treatment, and subjects having lower faecal Bacteroidetes exhibited increased concentrations of serum lipopolysaccharide and lipopolysaccharide binding protein independent of treatment. We found no evidence to support a defined health benefit for the use of β2-1 fructans in healthy subjects.
OBJECTIVES/SPECIFIC AIMS: Obesity is a rapidly growing epidemic and long-term interventions aimed to reduce body weight are largely unsuccessful due to an increased drive to eat and a reduced metabolic rate established during weight loss. Previously, our lab demonstrated that exercise has beneficial effects on weight loss maintenance by increasing total energy expenditure above and beyond the cost of an exercise bout and reducing the drive to eat when allowed to eat ad libitum (relapse). We hypothesized that exercise’s ability to counter these obesogenic-impetuses are mediated via improvements in skeletal muscle oxidative capacity, and tested this using a mouse model with augmented oxidative capacity in skeletal muscle. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: We recapitulated the exercise-induced improvements in oxidative capacity using FVB mice that overexpress lipoprotein lipase in skeletal muscle (mLPL). mLPL and wild type (WT) mice were put through a weight-loss-weight-regain paradigm consisting of a high fat diet challenge for 13 weeks, with a subsequent 1-week calorie-restricted medium fat diet to induce a ~15% weight loss. This newly established weight was maintained for 2 weeks and followed with a 24-hour relapse. Metabolic phenotype was characterized by indirect calorimetry during each phase. At the conclusion of the relapse day, mice were sacrificed and tissues were harvested for molecular analysis. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: During weight loss maintenance, mLPL mice had a higher metabolic rate (p=0.0256) that was predominantly evident in the dark cycle (p=0.0015). Furthermore, this increased metabolic rate was not due to differences in activity (p=0.2877) or resting metabolic rate (p=0.4881). During relapse, mLPL mice ingested less calories and were protected from rapid weight regain (p=0.0235), despite WT mice exhibiting higher metabolic rates during the light cycle (p=0.0421). DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE OF IMPACT: These results highlight the importance of muscular oxidative capacity in preventing a depression in total energy expenditure during weight loss maintenance, and in curbing overfeeding and weight regain during a relapse. Moreover, our data suggest that the thermic effect of food is responsible for the differences in metabolic rate, because no differences were found in activity or resting metabolic rate. Additional studies are warranted to determine the molecular mechanisms driving the ability of oxidative capacity to assist with weight loss maintenance.
OBJECTIVES/SPECIFIC AIMS: The aim of this study was to determining how interruptions affect the triage process. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: Prospective, observational study, where 118 triage interviews were observed. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: In total, 57% of triage interviews were interrupted. The most common interruption was by other nurses; however, 7% of the interruptions were by the triage nurse themselves. When an interruption occurred during the triage process, 67% of the time the triage nurse would stop the triage assessment and attend to the interrupter. In the interrupted interviews, 17% of the entire triage time was dedicated to addressing interruptions. Some interruptions (ie, additionally staff entering to conduct ECG) had a positive impact by expediting care during the triage process; where other interruptions delayed patient care. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE OF IMPACT: Interruptions increased the total triage time and contributed to patient treatment delays, as well as led to errors in nursing assessment. Understanding the classifications of triage interruptions and the impact on patient outcomes will allow researchers to develop interventions to mitigate the impact of these interruptions.
This study uses an experiment where ferry passengers are sold hotel room “views” to evaluate the impact of wind turbines views on tourists’ vacation experience. Participants purchase a chance for a weekend hotel stay. Information about the hotel rooms was limited to the quality of the hotel and its distance from a large wind turbine, as well as whether or not a particular room would have a view of the turbine. While there was generally a negative effect of turbine views, this did not hold across all participants, and did not seem to be effected by distance or hotel quality.