The incidence of scarlet fever has increased dramatically in recent years in Chongqing, China, but there has no effective method to forecast it. This study aimed to develop a forecasting model of the incidence of scarlet fever using a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. Monthly scarlet fever data between 2011 and 2019 in Chongqing, China were retrieved from the Notifiable Infectious Disease Surveillance System. From 2011 to 2019, a total of 5073 scarlet fever cases were reported in Chongqing, the male-to-female ratio was 1.44:1, children aged 3–9 years old accounted for 81.86% of the cases, while 42.70 and 42.58% of the reported cases were students and kindergarten children, respectively. The data from 2011 to 2018 were used to fit a SARIMA model and data in 2019 were used to validate the model. The normalised Bayesian information criterion (BIC), the coefficient of determination (R2) and the root mean squared error (RMSE) were used to evaluate the goodness-of-fit of the fitted model. The optimal SARIMA model was identified as (3, 1, 3) (3, 1, 0)12. The RMSE and mean absolute per cent error (MAPE) were used to assess the accuracy of the model. The RMSE and MAPE of the predicted values were 19.40 and 0.25 respectively, indicating that the predicted values matched the observed values reasonably well. Taken together, the SARIMA model could be employed to forecast scarlet fever incidence trend, providing support for scarlet fever control and prevention.

A shock-induced separation loss reduction method, using local blade suction surface shape modification (smooth ramp structure) with constant adverse pressure gradient with the consideration of radial equilibrium effect to split a single shock foot into multiple weaker shock wave configuration, is investigated on the NASA Rotor 37 for promoting aerodynamic performance of a transonic compressor rotor. Numerical investigation on baseline blade and improved one with blade modification on suction side has been conducted employing the Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes method to reveal flow physics of ramp structure. The results indicate that the passage shock foot of baseline is replaced with a family of compression waves and a weaker shock foot generating moderate adverse pressure gradient on ramp profile, which is beneficial for mitigating the shock foot and shrinking flow separation region as well. In addition, the radial secondary flow of low-momentum fluids within boundary layer is decreased significantly in the region of passage shock-wave/boundary-layer interaction on blade suction side, which mitigates the mass flow and mixing intensity of tip leakage flow. With the reduction of flow separation loss induced by passage shock, the adiabatic efficiency and total pressure ratio of improved rotor are superior to baseline model. This study herein implies a potential application of ramp profile in design method of transonic and supersonic compressors.

Resonant response of water waves in a narrow gap, with the interaction of multiple highly resonant modes, is an interesting hydrodynamic phenomenon with practical applications. Gap resonances between two identical fixed rectangular boxes are experimentally investigated for unidirectional waves with broadside incidence. We show that gap resonances can be driven through both linear wave excitation and nonlinear processes, i.e. frequency doubling, tripling and quadrupling – apparently new observations. It is striking that the time histories of the gap resonances excited through different nonlinear interactions are remarkably similar to each other. It seems likely that the nonlinear sum-frequency transfer functions for gap resonances depend strongly on the output frequency sum of the interacting linear components, but only weakly on the frequency difference. In terms of their structure in multiple frequency space (at second order the bi-frequency plane for two components), these transfer functions must then have a near-flat form in the direction(s) perpendicular to the leading diagonal. This is supported by our potential flow calculations of the quadratic transfer functions (QTFs). It is therefore convenient to approximate the QTF matrix as ‘flat’ in the direction perpendicular to the leading diagonal. This approximation is justified through experimental data that includes viscous damping. It is too complex, if not impossible, to calculate the full cubic or quartic transfer functions as direct evidence. However, the experimental analysis does provide some support for the near-flat structure being applicable to transfer functions above second order. The flat form approximation greatly reduces lengthy calculations of the high-order transfer functions.

Fluid–fluid displacement in porous media has been viewed through the lens of Lenormand's phase diagram since the late 1980s. This diagram suggests that the character of the flow is controlled by two dimensionless parameters: the capillary number and the viscosity ratio. It is by now well known, however, that the wettability of the system plays a key role in determining the pore-scale displacement mechanisms and macroscopic invasion patterns. Here, we endow Lenormand's diagram with the impact of wettability using dynamic and quasi-static pore-network models. By using the fractal dimension and the ratio of characteristic viscous and capillary pressures we delineate the five principal displacement regimes within the extended phase diagram: stable displacement, viscous fingering, invasion percolation, cooperative pore filling and corner flow. We discuss the results in the context of pattern formation, displacement-front dynamics, pore-scale disorder and displacement efficiency.

2-D junction characterization by dual lens electron holography, scanning capacitance microscopy (SCM), and scanning spreading resistance microscopy (SSRM) on a variety of semiconductor devices is reported, including optical modulators, regular complementary metal-oxide-semiconductor (CMOS) devices, and SiGe hetero-junction bipolar transistors. In most cases these techniques provide comparable results, while in some instances one technique has advantages over the other and vice versa. Advantages and disadvantages of each technique are discussed.

The present study was undertaken to evaluate the influence of rumen-protected folic acid (RPFA) on slaughter performance, visceral organ and gastrointestinal tract coefficients, and meat quality in lambs. Sixty-six lambs from 120 Hu ewes were selected based on body weight and maternal diets and then assigned to six groups using a randomised block experimental design in a 3 × 2 factorial arrangement. The first factor was folic acid (FA) as RPFA in the maternal diet (0 mg/kg (M0F), 16 mg/kg (M16F) or 32 mg/kg (M32F) on DM basis). The second factor was FA in the lambs’ diet from weaning until slaughter (0 mg/kg (OC) or 4·0 mg/kg (OF)). The results indicated that the addition of 16 mg/kg FA to the maternal diet increased pre-slaughter weight (PSW), dressing and meat percentage, the reticulum and omasum coefficients, length of the jejunum and ileum, tail fat and perirenal fat coefficient and a* value of the meat colour. The addition of RPFA to the lambs’ diet increased PSW, dressing and meat percentage, eye muscle area, abomasum weight, weight and length of the small intestine, but reduced the coefficients of tail fat. An M × O interaction was observed for the weights of heart, lungs, rumen and total stomach, weight and coefficient of omental fat and the girth rib value. Collectively, RPFA in the maternal and lambs’ diet improved slaughter performance and meat quality by stimulating the morphological development of the gastrointestinal tract and the distribution of fat in the body.

An acute gastroenteritis (AGE) outbreak caused by a norovirus occurred at a hospital in Shanghai, China, was studied for molecular epidemiology, host susceptibility and serological roles. Rectal and environmental swabs, paired serum samples and saliva specimens were collected. Pathogens were detected by real-time polymerase chain reaction and DNA sequencing. Histo-blood group antigens (HBGA) phenotypes of saliva samples and their binding to norovirus protruding proteins were determined by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. The HBGA-binding interfaces and the surrounding region were analysed by the MegAlign program of DNAstar 7.1. Twenty-seven individuals in two care units were attacked with AGE at attack rates of 9.02 and 11.68%. Eighteen (78.2%) symptomatic and five (38.4%) asymptomatic individuals were GII.6/b norovirus positive. Saliva-based HBGA phenotyping showed that all symptomatic and asymptomatic cases belonged to A, B, AB or O secretors. Only four (16.7%) out of the 24 tested serum samples showed low blockade activity against HBGA-norovirus binding at the acute phase, whereas 11 (45.8%) samples at the convalescence stage showed seroconversion of such blockade. Specific blockade antibody in the population played an essential role in this norovirus epidemic. A wide HBGA-binding spectrum of GII.6 supports a need for continuous health attention and surveillance in different settings.

Gravitational waves from coalescing neutron stars encode information about nuclear matter at extreme densities, inaccessible by laboratory experiments. The late inspiral is influenced by the presence of tides, which depend on the neutron star equation of state. Neutron star mergers are expected to often produce rapidly rotating remnant neutron stars that emit gravitational waves. These will provide clues to the extremely hot post-merger environment. This signature of nuclear matter in gravitational waves contains most information in the 2–4 kHz frequency band, which is outside of the most sensitive band of current detectors. We present the design concept and science case for a Neutron Star Extreme Matter Observatory (NEMO): a gravitational-wave interferometer optimised to study nuclear physics with merging neutron stars. The concept uses high-circulating laser power, quantum squeezing, and a detector topology specifically designed to achieve the high-frequency sensitivity necessary to probe nuclear matter using gravitational waves. Above 1 kHz, the proposed strain sensitivity is comparable to full third-generation detectors at a fraction of the cost. Such sensitivity changes expected event rates for detection of post-merger remnants from approximately one per few decades with two A+ detectors to a few per year and potentially allow for the first gravitational-wave observations of supernovae, isolated neutron stars, and other exotica.

To evaluate the dynamic properties of a coupled structure based on the dynamic properties of its substructures, this paper investigates the dynamic substructuring issue from the perspective of response prediction. The main idea is that the connecting forces at the interface of substructures can be expressed by the unknown coupled structural responses, and the responses can be solved rather easily. Not only rigidly coupled structures but also resiliently coupled structures are investigated. In order to further comprehend and visualize the nature of coupling problems, the Neumann series expansion for a matrix describing the relation between the coupled and uncoupled substructures is also introduced in this paper. Compared with existing response prediction methods, the proposed method does not have to measure any forces, which makes it easier to apply than the others. Clearly, the frequency response function matrix of coupled structures can be derived directly based on the response prediction method. Compared with existing frequency response function synthesis methods, it is more straightforward and comprehensible. Through demonstration of two examples, it is concluded that the proposed method can deal with structural coupling problems very well.

Dietary chitosan (CS) supplementation could improve the growth rate, small intestinal morphology, nutrients apparent digestibility and digestive enzyme activities in pigs, broiler chickens, rats and fish, whereas no data has been reported about the effect of CS on the growing Huoyan geese. Therefore, this study was designed to investigate the effects of CS on growth rate, small intestinal morphology, nutrients apparent utilization and digestive enzyme activities of growing Huoyan geese. Three hundred and twenty (28 days of age, gender balance) Huoyan geese were randomly divided into control, CS100, CS200 and CS400 groups (based on BW) with 20 geese per pen and 4 replicates pen per group, and the feeding experiment lasted for 4 weeks. The 4 diets contained 0, 100, 200 and 400 mg CS per kg feed, respectively. The results showed that CS200 groups had higher average daily gain, final BW, apparent utilization of DM and CP, and lower feed/gain ratio compared with the control group (P < 0.05). Meanwhile, CS100 and CS200 groups had higher villus height, villus height/crypt depth ratio and lower crypt depth in duodenum and jejunum than those in the control group (P < 0.05). The geese in CS100 and CS200 groups had higher villus height, villus height/crypt depth ratio and lower crypt depth of ileum compared with those in control and CS400 groups (P < 0.05). In addition, compared with the control group, CS200 group has higher trypsin activities and lower lipase activities in duodenal, jejunal and ileal contents (P < 0.05). The results suggested that addition of 200 mg/kg CS had positive effects on growth rate, small intestinal morphology, nutrients apparent utilization and digestive enzyme activities of growing Huoyan geese.

This study aimed to investigate the clinical characteristics and to analyse the epidemiological features of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients during convalescence. In this study, we enrolled 71 confirmed cases of COVID-19 who were discharged from hospital and transferred to isolation wards from 6 February to 26 March 2020. They were all employees of Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University or their family members of which three cases were <18 years of age. Clinical data were collected and analysed statistically. Forty-one cases (41/71, 57.7%) comprised medical faculty, young and middle-aged patients (aged ⩽60 years) accounted for 81.7% (58/71). The average isolation time period for all adult patients was 13.8 ± 6.1 days. During convalescence, RNA detection results of 35.2% patients (25/71) turned from negative to positive. The longest RNA reversed phase time was 7 days. In all, 52.9% of adult patients (36/68) had no obvious clinical symptoms, and the remaining ones had mild and non-specific clinical symptoms (e.g. cough, sputum, sore throat, disorders of the gastrointestinal tract etc.). Chest CT signs in 89.7% of adult patients (61/68) gradually improved, and in the others, the lesions were eventually absorbed and improved after short-term repeated progression. The main chest CT manifestations of adult patients were normal, GGO or fibre streak shadow, and six patients (8.8%) had extrapulmonary manifestations, but there was no significant correlation with RNA detection results (r = −0.008, P > 0.05). The drug treatment was mainly symptomatic support therapy, and antibiotics and antiviral drugs were ineffective. It is necessary to re-evaluate the isolation time and standard to terminate isolation for discharged COVID-19 patients.

Imprinting, characterized by unequal expression of the offspring's genes in a parent-of-origin dependent manner, has been functionally implicated in brain development and in psychiatric disorders. In this study, unambiguous distortion in paternal but not maternal transmission of the disease-associated single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) rs6556547 (T/G) clearly indicated the presence of parent-of-origin effect (POE) in the GABAA receptor β2 subunit gene (GABRB2). ‘Flipping’ of allelic mRNA expression in heterozygotes of SNP rs2229944 (C/T) and the observed two-tiered distribution of mRNA expression levels in heterozygotes of the disease-associated SNP rs1816071 (G/A) furnished important support for the occurrence of imprinting at GABRB2. Imprinting in effect introduced heterozygotes from different parents-of-origin endowed with dissimilar mRNA expression capabilities. The deficit of upper-tiered expressions accounted for the lowered mRNA expression levels in the schizophrenic heterozygotes. This pointed to the necessity of differentiating between two kinds of heterozygotes of different parental origins in disease association studies on GABRB2. Bisulfite sequencing revealed hypermethylation in the neighborhood of SNP rs1816071, and methylation differences between controls and schizophrenia patients. Notably, allele-specific methylation was observed at the disease-associated SNPs rs6556547 and rs1816071. These findings raised the possibility that CpG methylation status of these sites could have an impact on the expression of GABRB2 and the risk of schizophrenia. Furthermore, the occurrence of imprinting and allele-specific methylation in the schizophrenia candidate gene GABRB2 was compatible with the epigenetic hypothesis for schizophrenia pathophysiology, thereby calling for the need to explore the role of epigenetic factors in mediating susceptibility to schizophrenia.