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This paper shows that money is a relevant macroeconomic indicator for the description of US monetary policy with simple rules. Empirical analysis based on novel real-time data reveals the economically and statistically significant effect of money on the federal funds rate during the Volcker–Greenspan era, highlighting an interest rate rule that better explains historical policy. The findings suggest that the bias against including money in mainstream macroeconomic models may be due to relying on an incorrect measure of money. A gradual deviation from this rule explains loose monetary policy prior to the Great Recession. Including money aggregates in rule-based policy presents a suitable framework to evaluate and guide Federal Reserve policy.
Considers how George W. Bush rescued the catastrophe of post-invasion Iraq with his Surge. Analyzes key events of second Bush term, his freedom agenda, and wider counterterrorism efforts. Argues that Bush continued with a foreign policy approach made in the Cold War, in which Russian power remained a central concern. Details how Bush resembled his Cold War predecessors in his Russia policy, especially during the Russo-Georgia War. Examines successes and failures of Bush Jr.’s foreign policy, with a special focus on his approach to China. Argues that Bush’s foreign toward India was a considerable success.
The rise of the sharing economy and destabilization of property are embedded in social, economic and technological developments. This chapter describes the decline of stability in the new millennium. It reviews the processes that inspire or trigger the move to flexibility and mobility in property use. Four developments are analyzed: The Great Recession, technological advances (including online work, intellectual property, and online relationships), generational attitudes, and consumers' distrust of big corporations.
In this chapter we review the evidence from a three-country study assessing the impact of the 2008 Great Recession on young people making the step into independent adulthood, comparing experiences in the UK, in Germany, and the USA. Drawing on evidence from large scale, longitudinal studies the experiences of young people coming of age in different cultural contexts are described. The findings suggest that the Great Recession was a significant, but not principal influence on young people’s changing life course post-2008. Better to characterize it as a major economic shock that intensified the impact of pre-existing economic and social processes on young people’s lives.
Nonetheless, the recession effects presented new obstacles to entering and sustaining employment within the adult labor market. In particular the increasing precaritization of employment and marginalization of growing sections of the youth population, including graduates, is a major concern.
In this chapter, we argue that the timing of societal events in an individual’s life plays a major role in shaping that life through interacting developmental processes at multiple levels. We focus on classic research by Elder showing how two such events in historical proximity dramatically altered the lives of California children who were born at opposite ends of the 1920s, 1920–21 and 1928–29, the Great Depression of the 1930s followed by World War II (1941–45) and the Korean War (1950–53). We employ insights from both Elder’s cohort historical life course approach and developmental science including recent work on developmental neuroscience to understand the life-long impact of exposure to events that occur at different times in life, and the mechanisms through which these exposures may influence development, as well as experiences that may provide turning points in development.
Chapter 6, “Housing,” argues that the property-owning social democracy offered an alternative to Conservative housing policy. If the Conservative dream of a “property-owning democracy” envisioned a nation of homeowners, the property-owning social democracy sought economic, social, and spatial balance within a mixed housing system. This vision imagined not a universal public sector, but a dual tenurial system, including private owners alongside public renters. There was no “natural” state of housing: both the expansion of municipal housing after 1945, and the rise in owner-occupation after 1980, represented state achievements. Milton Keynes Development Corporation had always valued owner-occupation, but from 1976 that policy became a priority when spending cuts and policy shifts threatened the new town’s realization. MKDC began to prioritize housing sales, achieving such success that, by 1979, they could cast themselves as partners to the Conservative government. In time, however, this emphasis on private housing compromised the corporation’s ability to ensure balance across the city, producing patterns of socio-spatial polarization that foreshadowed national problems to come.
The 2008 economic recession was associated with an increase in suicide internationally. Studies have focused on the impact in the general population with little consideration of the effect on people with a mental illness.
To investigate suicide trends related to the recession in mental health patients in England.
Using regression models, we studied suicide trends in mental health patients in England before, during and after the recession and examined the demographic and clinical characteristics of the patients. We used data from the National Confidential Inquiry into Suicide and Safety in Mental Health, a national data-set of all suicide deaths in the UK that includes detailed clinical information on those seen by services in the last 12 months before death.
Between 2000 and 2016, there were 21 224 suicide deaths by patients aged 16 or over. For male patients, following a steady fall of 0.5% per quarter before the recession (quarterly percent change (QPC) 2000–2009 –0.46%, 95% CI –0.66 to –0.27), suicide rates showed an upward trend during the recession (QPC 2009–2011 2.37%, 95% CI –0.22 to 5.04). Recession-related rises in suicide were found in men aged 45–54 years, those who were unemployed or had a diagnosis of substance dependence/misuse. Between 2012 and 2016 there was a decrease in suicide in male patients despite an increasing number of patients treated. No significant recession-related trends were found in women.
Recession-associated increases in suicide were seen in male mental health patients as well as the male general population, with those in mid-life at particular risk. Support and targeted interventions for patients with financial difficulties may help reduce the risk at times of economic hardship. Factors such as drug and alcohol misuse also need to be considered. Recent decreases in suicide may be related to an improved economic context or better mental healthcare.
Declaration of interest
N.K. is supported by Greater Manchester Mental Health NHS Foundation Trust. L.A. chairs the National Suicide Prevention Strategy Advisory Group at the Department of Health (of which N.K. is also a member) and is a non-executive Director for the Care Quality Commission. N.K. chairs the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) depression in adults guideline and was a topic expert member for the NICE suicide prevention guideline.
Despite the increased attention paid to federal-state unemployment insurance (UI) schemes after the Great Recession (2007–2009), research examining the policy characteristics and the underlying logic shaping the social protection provided by a federal-state UI system is limited. Integrating the perspectives of policy design theory, comparative welfare politics, and fiscal welfare, this paper examines the unequal social protection under the American UI system during and after the Great Recession. By using model-based cluster analysis and fixed-effect panel regression models, this paper identifies three distinct UI approaches, i.e. the limited social protection approach, the unbalanced social protection approach, and the balanced social protection approach. The policy choices made by those states that follow the three approaches reflect different mixtures of policy logic, including social protection, economic stabilization, work disincentives, and interstate competition. The overall downward trend in social protection signals that the American UI system is under-prepared for the next economic recession, thereby exposing unemployed workers to the risk of economic insecurity. These findings provide implications for future policy designs aiming to strengthen the social protection of the federal-state UI system.
We aimed at analysing changes in consumption of selected food groups in the Portuguese population before and after the Great Recession, which hit the country between 2008 and 2013.
We used pooled cross-sectional data from the Portuguese National Health Interview Surveys of 2005/2006 and 2014. We modelled the probability of consumption of soup, fish, meat, potatoes/rice/pasta, bread, legumes, fruit, vegetables and sweets/desserts, as a function of the year, controlling for age, sex and education, using logistic regressions. Then, we stratified the analysis by age group and education level. Analyses were adjusted for survey weights.
Portugal (2005/2006 to 2014).
Adults (n 43273) aged 25–79 years.
From 2005/2006 to 2014, there was a significantly lower consumption of fish, soup, fruit and vegetables. Conversely, the consumption of legumes and sweets/desserts was significantly higher in 2014. The changes in the selected food groups were consistent across most education levels. Among people aged 65 years or above, there were no significant changes in most foods, except an increase in the consumption of legumes and sweets/desserts. In contrast, people aged 25–39 and 40–64 years significantly decreased their intakes of fish and soup and increased their consumption of sweets/desserts.
The consistent results across education levels suggest that changes in dietary habits are not linked to the economic downturn. By contrast, our findings suggest a shift away from foods commonly linked to the Mediterranean diet, particularly among younger people.
This paper builds upon Bartelsman, Lopez-Garcia, and Presidente (2018) and provides empirical evidence on the cyclical features of labour reallocation in a sample of European Union (EU) countries over the Great Recession and the slow recovery. The analysis makes use of cross-country micro-aggregated data on firm dynamics and productivity from release 6 of the ECB CompNet database. While productivity-enhancing reallocation generally is counter-cyclical, with a stronger effect providing a silver lining in downturns, it was weaker during the Great Recession in the EU, but reverted back to more normal patters in the most recent years.
This article uses historical US inflation data covering over two centuries to examine the impact of the establishment of the US Federal Reserve on average US inflation and inflation uncertainty. We find that the founding of the Fed is associated with higher average US inflation and lower inflation uncertainty. Critically, these results are not driven by the post-1980 period, where the Fed policy is characterised by the dual mandate. Other important results are that the gold standard period is associated with both lower inflation and inflation uncertainty, and that banking and stock market crises are a positive determinant of inflation uncertainty and perhaps inflation. World Wars I and II and the US Civil War are associated with both higher inflation and higher inflation uncertainty. In addition, we find that the central bank has responded to increasing inflation uncertainty in a stabilising manner in support of the Holland hypothesis.
While economic crises can increase socio-economic disparities in health, little is known about the impact of the 2008–09 Great Recession on obesity prevalence among children, especially low-income children. The present study examined whether socio-economic disparities in obesity among children of pre-school age participating in a federal nutrition assistance programme have changed since the recession.
A pre–post observational study using administrative data of pre-school-aged programme participants from 2003 to 2014. Logistic regression was used to examine whether the relationship between obesity prevalence (BMI≥95th percentile of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s growth charts) and three measures of socio-economic status (household income, household educational attainment, neighbourhood-level median household income) changed after the recession by examining the interaction between each socio-economic status measure and a 5-year time-period variable (2003–07 v. 2010–14), stratified by child’s age and adjusted for child’s sociodemographic characteristics.
Los Angeles County, California, USA.
Children aged 2–4 years (n 1 637 788) participating in the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children.
The magnitude of the association of household income and household education with obesity increased after 2008–09 among 3- and 4-year-olds and 2- and 3-year-olds, respectively. However, the magnitude of the association of neighbourhood-level median household income with obesity did not change after 2008–09.
Disparities in obesity by household-level socio-economic status widened after the recession, while disparities by neighbourhood-level socio-economic status remained the same. The widening household-level socio-economic disparities suggest that obesity prevention efforts should target the most vulnerable low-income children.
For over a century, scholars have traced higher levels of serious crime in minority compared to White neighborhoods to stark socioeconomic inequality. Yet, this research is largely cross-sectional and does not assess how ethnoracial differences in crime patterns evolve over time in response to shifting structural conditions. The new century witnessed substantial changes to the circumstances that undergird the ethnoracial divide in neighborhood crime as well as a national crime decline. How are the changing dynamics of urban inequality reinforcing or diminishing racial and ethnic disparities in neighborhood crime in the context of the “Great American Crime Decline”? We address this question by first identifying distinct paths of violent and property crime change between 1999 and 2013 for almost 2700 neighborhoods across eighteen cities. We then assess how initial and changing levels of disadvantage, housing instability, and demographics explain divergent crime trajectories within neighborhoods. We find that most neighborhoods have lower levels of homicide and burglary than fifteen years ago. However, homicide and burglary increased in some neighborhoods, and this trend is largely limited to Black neighborhoods. Disadvantage and the housing crisis are critical in accounting for the heightened risk of neighborhoods having increasing rather than decreasing crime trends. In contrast, immigration is linked with declining and stable trends in violent and property crime. Overall, results indicate a widening of the racial-spatial divide for the most marginalized communities in the United States.
Economists typically use seasonally adjusted data in which the assumption is imposed that seasonality is uncorrelated with trend and cycle. The importance of this assumption has been highlighted by the Great Recession. The paper examines an unobserved components model that permits nonzero correlations between seasonal and nonseasonal shocks. Identification conditions for estimation of the parameters are discussed from the perspectives of both analytical and simulation results. Applications to UK household consumption expenditures and US employment reject the zero correlation restrictions and also show that the correlation assumptions imposed have important implications about the evolution of the trend and cycle in the post-Great Recession period.
To explore and describe quantitatively the effect over time of unemployment on food purchase behaviour and diet composition.
Longitudinal data from 2008–2012, with monthly food purchase data aligned with register data on unemployment measured as a dichotomous indicator as well as a trend accounting for the duration.
A household panel which registers daily food purchases combined with detailed nutritional information and registration of the duration of unemployment at individual level. The structure of the data set facilitates the detection of effects or associations between duration of unemployment and diet composition, purchase behaviour in terms of food expenditure, and share of food purchased on offer and in discounters while controlling for important confounding factors.
Danish households of working age (n 3440) adjusted to household equivalents. We use fixed-effects econometric methods to control for unobserved heterogeneity.
In the short run, unemployment led to substitution in favour of discount stores and increases in food expenditure and in consumption of saturated fat, total fat and protein due to increased consumption of animal-based foods. In the medium run food expenditure declined together with consumption of fresh animal-based foods and saturated fat, total fat and protein. In the even longer run these nutrients were substituted by carbohydrates and added sugar.
Unemployment has a substantial influence on diet composition, but effects vary with duration of the unemployment period, which may have potential health implications. This ought to be taken into consideration in evaluations of existing reforms and in future reforms of welfare systems.
To document changes in consumption of food away from home (FAFH) and intakes of selected nutrients by working-age adults between 2005–06 and 2013–14, covering the most recent recessionary period and recovery.
Means were compared across survey rounds relative to 2005–06. Multivariate regression was used to account for changes in demographic characteristics over time.
National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), 2005–2014.
Working-age adults born in 1951–80 (n 12 129) and adolescents and young adults born in 1981–90 (n 5197) who reported day 1 dietary intake data.
Approximately 34 % of energy consumed by working-age adults came from FAFH (14 % from fast foods) in 2005–06. Levels of FAFH consumption were lowest in 2009–10, at 28 and 11 % of energy from FAFH and fast foods, respectively. Percentage of energy from fast foods was 1·9 percentage points higher in 2013–14. Percentage of energy from saturated fat and total mg of cholesterol consumed were lower in 2009–14, while intake of fibre was higher in 2011–14. At-home foods had less saturated fat and more fibre in 2009–14. The greater the percentage of energy from FAFH in the day, the greater the intakes of fat and cholesterol. Percentage of energy from FAFH was highest among those born in 1981–90 and lowest among those born in 1951–60.
FAFH is a significant source of energy, fat and cholesterol among working-age adults. Menu labelling may lower FAFH’s energy content and make it easier for consumers to choose more healthful items.
External threats such as war have been shown to disrupt representation as politicians ‘put politics aside’ and cooperate across cleavages. This article examines whether a severe economic crisis can have a similar effect. It introduces a new approach that provides a spatial representation of how political parties represent societal actors in their public interactions, based on more than 140,000 machine coded news events from eleven eurozone countries between 2001 and 2011. The study shows that in bad economic times, there is a compression of political representation: parties’ relationships with the societal groups they are closest to become less cooperative, while their relationships with the groups they are least close to become less conflictual.
In the wake of the 2008 Great Recession, new and challenger parties have enjoyed electoral gains in some European countries. Political and economic disaffection have been pointed out as the main drivers of their electoral support. This article proposes voter’s stealth democracy attitudes, as defined by Hibbing and Theiss-Morse, as an additional driving force to account for this electoral change. We examine the case of Spain with a survey conducted after the far-reaching transformation of the party system, which has led to the emergence of two new parties: Ciudadanos (on the center-right) and Podemos (on the radical-left). We find that stealth democracy attitudes are positively related to the support for the former and negatively related to the support for the latter. Additionally, we provide evidence of this relationship being conditional on voters’ ideology. The study illustrates how an unexplored attitudinal dimension contributes to party system change, and how the relevance of these attitudes might go beyond the temporary political discontent caused by the economic crisis.
Consumers in the UK responded to the rapid increases in food prices between 2007 and 2009 partly by reducing the amount of food energy bought. Household food and drink waste has also decreased since 2007. The present study explored the combined effects of reductions in food purchases and waste on estimated food energy intakes and dietary energy density.
The amount of food energy purchased per adult equivalent was calculated from Kantar Worldpanel household food and drink purchase data for 2007 and 2012. Food energy intakes were estimated by adjusting purchase data for food and drink waste, using waste factors specific to the two years and scaled for household size.
Households in Scotland (n 2657 in 2007; n 2841 in 2012).
The amount of food energy purchased decreased between 2007 and 2012, from 8·6 to 8·2 MJ/adult equivalent per d (P<0·001). After accounting for the decrease in food waste, estimated food energy intake was not significantly different (7·3 and 7·2 MJ/adult equivalent per d for 2007 and 2012, respectively; P=0·186). Energy density of foods purchased increased slightly from 700 to 706 kJ/100 g (P=0·010).
While consumers in Scotland reduced the amount of food energy that they purchased between 2007 and 2012, this was balanced by reductions in household food and drink waste over the same time, resulting in no significant change in net estimated energy intake of foods brought into the home.
Job loss, debt and financial difficulties are associated with increased risk of mental illness and suicide in the general population. Interventions targeting people in debt or unemployed might help reduce these effects.
We searched MEDLINE, Embase, The Cochrane Library, Web of Science, and PsycINFO (January 2016) for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of interventions to reduce the effects of unemployment and debt on mental health in general population samples. We assessed papers for inclusion, extracted data and assessed risk of bias.
Eleven RCTs (n = 5303 participants) met the inclusion criteria. All recruited participants were unemployed. Five RCTs assessed ‘job-club’ interventions, two cognitive behaviour therapy (CBT) and a single RCT assessed each of emotional competency training, expressive writing, guided imagery and debt advice. All studies were at high risk of bias. ‘Job club’ interventions led to improvements in levels of depression up to 2 years post-intervention; effects were strongest among those at increased risk of depression (improvements of up to 0.2–0.3 s.d. in depression scores). There was mixed evidence for effectiveness of group CBT on symptoms of depression. An RCT of debt advice found no effect but had poor uptake. Single trials of three other interventions showed no evidence of benefit.
‘Job-club’ interventions may be effective in reducing depressive symptoms in unemployed people, particularly those at high risk of depression. Evidence for CBT-type interventions is mixed; further trials are needed. However the studies are old and at high risk of bias. Future intervention studies should follow CONSORT guidelines and address issues of poor uptake.