Using 1971-2000 data, we examine the accuracy of corn and soybean production forecasts provided by the USD A and two private agencies. All agencies improved their forecasts as the harvest progressed, and forecast errors were highly correlated and unbiased. The relative forecast accuracy of the agencies varied by crop and month. For corn, USDA's forecasts ranked as most accurate of the three agencies in all periods except for August during the recent period and improved most markedly as harvest progressed. For soybeans, forecast errors were very similar, with the private agencies ranking as most accurate for August and September and making largest relative improvements for August during the recent period. The USDA forecasts were dominant for October and November. Our findings identify several patterns of relative forecast accuracy that have implications for private and public decision makers.

This study determines the relative effects of price, cattle quality, and feeding performance factors on profit per head for fed cattle marketed via a grid structure. Two different data sets of cattle that were marketed in two different grid pricing systems are used in the analysis with comparisons of results made between grids. Grid base price and feeder cattle price are the most important determinants of profit over time in both grids. However, considering only nonprice variables, the cumulative quality of cattle in a pen is also an important profit determinant.

This paper derives price-cost margins for the old newspaper (ONP) input market for newsprint manufacture and then examines the effects of two government policies and two variables measuring the market performances of ONP input and newsprint output on the oligopsonist's ONP price-cost margins. In the wastepaper recycling market in particular, the ONP input market has not been successful in using the ONP generated. The outcomes of the study are that various degrees of price distortions existed in the ONP input markets in four regions of the United States during 1972–1995. Demand-side policy had a positive effect and supply-side policy had a negative effect on ONP price–cost margins in all regions.

The proposed Free Trade Area of the Americas would join the world's two largest processed orange producing regions: Brazil and the United States. Because the United States currently imposes a sizeable tariff on imported processed orange products, there is concern by U.S. orange growers over possible adverse effects resulting from tariff elimination. A model of the world processed orange market is developed as a spatial equilibrium model with implicit supply functions based on the dynamic behavior of orange production. The model is used to estimate the impact of U.S. tariff elimination on U.S. production, grower and processor prices, and imports. The results suggest a sizeable price impact on U.S. producers if the tariff is eliminated.

Risk management education has been a focus of U.S. farm policy since 1996. In support of significant ongoing United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) educational efforts, this study examines agricultural producers' educational needs and interests. Data obtained through a survey of crop producers are used in probit models examining interest in additional training in five areas including forward contracting, futures and options, crop yield insurance, crop revenue insurance, and financial management. The study results should be useful in determining appropriate risk management education program content and in identifying and tailoring to specific target audiences.

Increases in the United States tariff-rate quota for sugar are simulated to determine the impact of Cuban market access and an increased Mexican allotment. The effects on both domestic and international sugar markets, including production, consumption, prices, and trade, are determined and welfare effects identified. This analysis is carried out using a partial-equilibrium simplified world trade model, Modele Internationale Simplifié de Simulation (MISS), which simulates, in a comparative-static framework, the effects of various policy actions.

Since the farm financial crisis of the 1980s, Farm Credit System banks continue to merge and consolidate to enhance competitiveness. Two mixed-integer programming models of AgChoice Agricultural Credit Association (ACA), a recently merged ACA in Pennsylvania, were developed to determine the optimal number, location, and territory of branches. The approach suggests useful information can be determined regarding the reconfiguration process after bank mergers, especially given the fact that the current AgChoice ACA configuration is available for comparison purposes.

Shrimp farming in Thailand has had disastrous effects on the environment in the past, which has prompted a government ban on shrimp production in inland areas. However, a new low-salinity shrimp farming system has developed that seems to have fewer disease and environmental problems than previous systems but competes with rice production for land and water resources. The present study found that shrimp farming exhibits increasing returns to scale and is much more profitable than rice farming, which offers opportunities for rice farmers to improve their incomes through diversification. No evidence was found for external environmental effects of shrimp production on rice production or vice versa. A total ban on shrimp production in rice farming areas does not seem justified, although further analysis on the environmental effects of this farming system is warranted.

Price elasticities and flexibilities for frozen dessert products were estimated from weekly scanner data, with emphasis on functional form selection, system misspecification testing, and endogeneity testing. Reciprocals of elasticities and elasticity matrix inversion were invalid means of obtaining flexibility estimates, leaving direct estimation as the only viable, albeit resource-intensive, approach.

Treatment of time in travel cost models has been a source of contention among economists. The debate persists because welfare estimates, which are the principal objectives of these studies, are highly sensitive to the treatment of time. The present study examines the dual role of on-site time using evidence from two wilderness areas in Alabama. The empirical results comply with the theoretical expectation that on-site time is both a source of utility and cost. The exclusion of on-site time from demand functions results in biased parameter estimates. In particular, it yields smaller own-price coefficients and higher welfare estimates.

The premise of this paper is that agricultural economics, as a distinct subdiscipline of economics, faces perhaps the most serious challenges since struggling for a separate identity nearly a century ago. I fully appreciate the fact that nearly all professional presidential addresses key on the theme of change to one extent or another. However, the environment within which we practice our profession is undergoing such significant transition that I believe radical changes are needed in how we frame and implement our instructional, research, and outreach programs. In his 1986 American Agricultural Economics Association presidential address, Joe Havlicek identified five megatrends affecting agriculture that he believed would have profound implications for our profession: (1) food consumption changes, (2) internationalism and macroeconomic forces, (3) technological change, (4) structural change, and (5) environmentalism.

The efficiency of public education is examined using a cost indirect output distance function. Efficiency estimates are obtained using data envelopment analysis applied to data from Georgia public schools. Georgia school districts utilize educational budgets with reasonable efficiency, achieving an overall efficiency of 98% with a range of 93%–100%. If all school districts were 100% efficient, outputs could be expanded 2%. This could be achieved by increasing funding $75.46 million state-wide in total for each of the 3 years. From the consumers' (voters') point of view, this result suggests that inefficiency costs Georgia, on average, a total of $226.38 million from 1994 to 1996.

The value of an innovative seed technology is estimated in a discrete stochastic programming framework for a representative farm in the northern Corn Belt. Temperature-activated polymer-coated seed has the potential to increase net returns by increasing yields due to early planting and use of longer season varieties, as well as reducing yield loss due to delayed planting. A biophysical simulation model was used to estimate die impact of polymer-coated seed on corn and soybean yields and on field day availability for five planting periods, three crop varieties, and two tillage systems on two different soils under varying weather conditions.

Key demographic trends in the rural South over the next decade—the aging of the population as baby boomers enter retirement, continued migration to the South, and rapid increases in shares of Hispanic residents—may have profound consequences for the financing of rural community public services. In this paper, we provide an overview of demographic and economic trends that are expected to influence the ability of rural communities to provide essential public services. In addition, we provide econometric evidence on the impacts that these trends are likely to have on the financing of K-12 education in South Carolina.

Fats and oils play a prominent role in U.S. dietary patterns. Recent concerns over the negative health consequences associated with fats and oils have led many to suspect structural change in demand conditions. Our analysis considers short run (monthly) demand relationships for edible fats and oils. In that monthly quantities of fats and oils are likely to be relatively fixed, an inverse almost ideal demand system specification is used. A smooth transition function is used to model a switching inverse almost ideal demand system that assesses short-run demand conditions for edible fats and oils in the United States. The results suggest that short-run demand conditions for fats and oils experienced a gradual structural shift that began in the late 1980s or early 1990s and persisted into the mid-1990s. Although this shift generally made price flexibilities more elastic, differences in scale flexibilities across regimes were modest in most cases. The results suggest that decreases in marginal valuations for most fats and oils in response to consumption increases are rather small. Scale flexibilities are relatively close to –1, suggesting near homothetic preferences for fats and oils.

This paper uses the results of a nationwide survey of coastal property owners to estimate the demand for insurance against erosion damage. The National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) does not technically cover such damage, although in practice there is considerable uncertainty about this point. The ability to insure against such losses has implications for the choice of beach management strategies and for NFIP management. We find significant demand for insurance at prices in the range of current flood insurance premiums, although median willingness to pay appears to be less than the cost of providing such insurance.