The incidence of scarlet fever has increased dramatically in recent years in Chongqing, China, but there has no effective method to forecast it. This study aimed to develop a forecasting model of the incidence of scarlet fever using a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. Monthly scarlet fever data between 2011 and 2019 in Chongqing, China were retrieved from the Notifiable Infectious Disease Surveillance System. From 2011 to 2019, a total of 5073 scarlet fever cases were reported in Chongqing, the male-to-female ratio was 1.44:1, children aged 3–9 years old accounted for 81.86% of the cases, while 42.70 and 42.58% of the reported cases were students and kindergarten children, respectively. The data from 2011 to 2018 were used to fit a SARIMA model and data in 2019 were used to validate the model. The normalised Bayesian information criterion (BIC), the coefficient of determination (R2) and the root mean squared error (RMSE) were used to evaluate the goodness-of-fit of the fitted model. The optimal SARIMA model was identified as (3, 1, 3) (3, 1, 0)12. The RMSE and mean absolute per cent error (MAPE) were used to assess the accuracy of the model. The RMSE and MAPE of the predicted values were 19.40 and 0.25 respectively, indicating that the predicted values matched the observed values reasonably well. Taken together, the SARIMA model could be employed to forecast scarlet fever incidence trend, providing support for scarlet fever control and prevention.

We report on experimental observation of non-laminar proton acceleration modulated by a strong magnetic field in laser irradiating micrometer aluminum targets. The results illustrate the coexistence of ring-like and filamentation structures. We implement the knife edge method into the radiochromic film detector to map the accelerated beams, measuring a source size of 30–110 μm for protons of more than 5 MeV. The diagnosis reveals that the ring-like profile originates from low-energy protons far off the axis whereas the filamentation is from the near-axis high-energy protons, exhibiting non-laminar features. Particle-in-cell simulations reproduced the experimental results, showing that the short-term magnetic turbulence via Weibel instability and the long-term quasi-static annular magnetic field by the streaming electric current account for the measured beam profile. Our work provides direct mapping of laser-driven proton sources in the space-energy domain and reveals the non-laminar beam evolution at featured time scales.

Background: Standardized magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) guidelines published in 2015 by the Europoean MAGNIMS group and in 2016 by the CMSC are important for the diagnosis and monitoring of patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) and for the appropriate use of MRI in routine clinical practice. Methods: Two panels of experts convened to update existing guidelines for a standardized MRI protocol. The MAGNIMS panel convened in Graz, Austria in April 2019. The CMSC NAIMS panel met separately and independently in Newark, USA in October 2019. Subsequently, the MAGNIMS, NAIMS, and CMSC working groups combined their efforts to reach an international consensus Results: The revised guidelines on MRI in MS merges recommendations from MAGNIMS, CMSC, and NAIMS to improve the use of MRI for diagnosis, prognosis and monitoring of individuals with MS. 3D acquisitions are emphasized for optimal comparison over time. Core brain sequences include a 3D-T2wFLAIR for lesion identification and monitoring treatment effectiveness. Gadolinium-based contrast is recommended for diagnostic studies and judicious use for routine monitoring of MS patients. DWI sequences are recommended for PML safety monitoring. Conclusions: The international consensus guidelines strive for global acceptance of a useful and usable standard of care for patients with MS.

Pneumatic launch systems for Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), including mechanical and pneumatic systems, are complex and non-linear. They are subjected to system parameters during launch, which leads to difficulty in engineering research analysis. For example, the mismatch between the UAV parameters and the parameter design indices of the launch system as well as the unclear design indices of the launching speed and overload of UAVs have a great impact on launch safety. Considering this situation, some studies are presented in this paper. Taking the pneumatic launch system as a research object, a pneumatic launcher dynamic simulation model is built based on co-simulation considering the coupling characteristics of the mechanical structure and transmission system. Its accuracy was verified by laboratory test results. Based on this model, the paper shows the effects of the key parameters, including the mass of the UAV, cylinder volume, pressure and moment of inertia of the pulley block, on the performance of the dynamic characteristics of the launch process. Then, a method for matching the parameter characteristics between the UAV and launch system based on batch simulation is proposed. The set of matching parameter values of the UAV and launch system that satisfy the launch take-off safety criteria are calculated. Finally, the influence of the system parameters of the launch process on the launch performance was analysed in detail, and the design optimised. Meaningful conclusions were obtained. The analysis method and its results can provide a reference for engineering and theoretical research and development of pneumatic launch systems.

We use a continuous wavelet transform to analyse the daily hemispheric sunspot area data from the Greenwich Royal Observatory during cycles 12–24 and then study the cause of the appearance or disappearance of the Rieger-type periodicity in the northern and southern hemispheres during a certain cycle. The Rieger-type periodicity in the northern and southern hemispheres should be developed independently in the two hemispheres. This periodicity in the northern hemisphere is generally anti-correlated with the long-term variations in the mean solar cycle strength of hemispheric activity, but the correlation of the two parameters in the southern hemisphere shows a weak correlation. The appearance or disappearance of Rieger-type periodicity in the northern and southern hemispheres during a certain solar cycle is not directly correlated with their corresponding hemispheric mean activity strength but should be related to the strength of the hemispheric activity during sunspot maximum times, which hints the Rieger-type periodicity is more related to temporal evolution of toroidal magnetic field. The Rieger-type periodicity in the two hemispheres disappears in those solar cycles with relatively weak hemispheric activity during sunspot maximum times. The reason for the disappearance of this periodicity may be due to the combined influence of relatively weak toroidal magnetic fields and torsional oscillations, the differential rotation parameters vary through the solar cycle and may not remain more or less unchanged during some time, which does not permit the strong growth of magnetic Rossby waves.

It is important to understand the temporal trend of the paediatric severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) viral load to estimate the transmission potential of children in schools and communities. We determined the differences in SARS-CoV-2 viral load dynamics between nasopharyngeal samples of infected asymptomatic and symptomatic children. Serial cycle threshold values of SARS-CoV-2 from the nasopharynx of a cohort of infected children were collected for analysis. Among 17 infected children, 10 (58.8%) were symptomatic. Symptomatic children, when compared to asymptomatic children, had higher viral loads (mean cycle threshold on day 7 of illness 28.6 vs. 36.7, P = 0.02). Peak SARS-CoV-2 viral loads occurred around day 2 of illness in infected children. Although we were unable to directly demonstrate infectivity, the detection of significant amount of virus in the upper airway of asymptomatic children suggest that they have the potential to shed and transmit SARS-CoV-2. Our study highlights the importance of contact tracing and screening for SARS-CoV-2 in children with epidemiological risk factors regardless of their symptom status, in order to improve containment of the virus in the community, including educational settings.

Glutamine synthetase (GS) and glutamate synthase (GOGAT) play a central role in plant nitrogen (N) metabolism. In order to study the effect of powdery mildew (Blumeria graminis f. sp. tritici, Bgt) on N metabolism, field experiments were carried out to evaluate GS and GOGAT activity, GS expression and grain protein content (GPC) in susceptible (Xi'nong 979) and resistant (Zhengmai 103) wheat cultivars under three treatments. The three treatments were no inoculation (CK), inoculated once with Bgt (MP) and inoculated nine times with Bgt (HP). For Xi'nong 979, the activities of GS and GOGAT in grains as well as GS activity in flag leaves increased at 10–15 days after anthesis (DAA), and decreased significantly at 15 or 20–30 DAA in HP and MP. However, GS activity in grains decreased from 20 DAA, which was later than that of flag leaves (15 DAA). At the same time, GS expression in grains was up-regulated at early stage, with GS1 at 10 DAA and GS2 at 15 DAA, followed by a continuous down-regulation. This result indicated that GS and GOGAT activity as well as GS expression were inhibited by powdery mildew, indicating that N metabolism in grains was inhibited at 20–30 DAA. The current study also found out that the yield of the susceptible cultivar decreased significantly, while its GPC increased obviously in HP. It was shown that the increase of GPC was not due to the enhancement of N metabolism, but due to the passive increase caused by yield reduction.

A new near-infrared direct acceleration mechanism driven by Laguerre–Gaussian laser is proposed to stably accelerate and concentrate electron slice both in longitudinal and transversal directions in vacuum. Three-dimensional simulations show that a 2-μm circularly polarized ${\mathrm{LG}}_p^l$ (p = 0, l = 1, σz = −1) laser can directly manipulate attosecond electron slices in additional dimensions (angular directions) and give them annular structures and angular momentums. These annular vortex attosecond electron slices are expected to have some novel applications such as in the collimation of antiprotons in conventional linear accelerators, edge-enhancement electron imaging, structured X-ray generation, and analysis and manipulation of nanomaterials.

Previous studies have revealed associations of meteorological factors with tuberculosis (TB) cases. However, few studies have examined their lag effects on TB cases. This study was aimed to analyse nonlinear lag effects of meteorological factors on the number of TB notifications in Hong Kong. Using a 22-year consecutive surveillance data in Hong Kong, we examined the association of monthly average temperature and relative humidity with temporal dynamics of the monthly number of TB notifications using a distributed lag nonlinear models combined with a Poisson regression. The relative risks (RRs) of TB notifications were >1.15 as monthly average temperatures were between 16.3 and 17.3 °C at lagged 13–15 months, reaching the peak risk of 1.18 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.02–1.35) when it was 16.8 °C at lagged 14 months. The RRs of TB notifications were >1.05 as relative humidities of 60.0–63.6% at lagged 9–11 months expanded to 68.0–71.0% at lagged 12–17 months, reaching the highest risk of 1.06 (95% CI 1.01–1.11) when it was 69.0% at lagged 13 months. The nonlinear and delayed effects of average temperature and relative humidity on TB epidemic were identified, which may provide a practical reference for improving the TB warning system.

We study the evolution of unidirectional water waves from a randomly forced input condition with uncorrelated Fourier components. We examine the kurtosis of the linearised free surface as a convenient proxy for the probability of a rogue wave. We repeat the laboratory experiments of Onorato et al. (Phys. Rev. E, vol. 70, 2004, 067302), both experimentally and numerically, and extend the parameter space in our numerical simulations. We consider numerical simulations based on the modified nonlinear Schrödinger equation and the fully nonlinear water wave equations, which are in good agreement. For low steepness, existing analytical models based on the nonlinear Schrödinger equation (NLS) are found to be accurate. For cases which are steep or have very narrow bandwidths, these analytical models over-predict the rate at which excess kurtosis develops. In these steep cases, the kurtosis in both our experiments and numerical simulations peaks before returning to an equilibrium level. Such transient maxima are not predicted by NLS-based analytical models. Above a certain threshold of steepness, the steady-state value of kurtosis is primarily dependent on the spectral bandwidth. We also examine how the average shape of extreme events is modified by nonlinearity over the evolution distance, showing significant asymmetry during the initial evolution, which is greatly reduced once the spectrum has reached equilibrium. The locations of the maxima in asymmetry coincide approximately with the locations of the maxima in kurtosis.

The current study investigated associations between variation in the bovine perilipin-2 gene (PLIN2) and milk traits (milk fat content, milk protein content, milk yield and milk fatty acid (FA) component levels) in 409 New Zealand pasture-grazed Holstein-Friesian × Jersey-cross (HF × J-cross or Kiwicross™) cows. Five nucleotide sequence variants were found in three regions of the gene, including c.17C>T in exon 2, c.53A>G in exon 3, c.595+23G>A and c.595+104_595+108del in intron 5, and c.*302T>C in the 3′-untranslated region. The c.*302T>C substitution produces two nucleotide sequence variants (A5 and B5), and this variation was associated with variation in milk protein content and milkfat composition for C10:0, C11:0, C12:0, C13:0 and C16:0 FA and medium-chain fatty acid (MCFA) and long-chain fatty acid (LCFA) groups. After correcting for the effect of variation in the diacylglycerol acyl-CoA acyltransferase 1 gene (DGAT1) that results in the amino acid substitution p.K232A, variation in the FA binding protein 4 gene (FABP4) and variation in the stearoyl-CoA desaturase (Δ-9-desaturase) gene (SCD) that results in the amino acids substitution p.A293V, significant differences between A5A5 and B5B5 cows were found for C10:0, C11:0, C12:0, C13:0, C16:0, and the MCFA, LCFA, total saturated FA and C10:1 index groups. This suggests that nucleotide sequence variation in PLIN2 may be affecting milk FA component levels.

Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) is a disease with a high case-fatality rate that is caused by infection with the SFTS virus (SFTSV). Five electronic databases were systematically searched to identify relevant articles published from 1 January 2011 to 1 December 2019. The pooled rates with 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated by a fixed-effect or random-effect model analysis. The results showed that 92 articles were included in this meta-analysis. For the confirmed SFTS cases, the case-fatality rate was 0.15 (95% CI 0.11, 0.18). Two hundred and ninety-six of 1384 SFTS patients indicated that they had been bitten by ticks and the biting rate was 0.21 (95% CI 0.16, 0.26). The overall pooled seroprevalence of SFTSV antibodies among the healthy population was 0.04 (95% CI 0.03, 0.05). For the overall seroprevalence of SFTSV in animals, the seroprevalence of SFTSV was 0.25 (95% CI 0.20, 0.29). The infection rate of SFTSV in ticks was 0.08 (95% CI 0.05, 0.11). In conclusion, ticks can serve as transmitting vectors of SFTSVs and reservoir hosts. Animals can be infected by tick bites, and as a reservoir host, SFTSV circulates continuously between animals and ticks in nature. Humans are infected by tick bites and direct contact with patient secretions.

Longan is an economically important sub-tropical fruit tree native to southern China and southeast Asia. Its production has been affected significantly by climate change, but the underlying reasons remain unclear. Herein, the potential growing areas of longan were simulated by the Maxent model under current and future conditions. The results showed excellent prediction performance, with an area under curve of >0.9 for model training and validation. The key environmental variables identified were mean temperature of the coldest quarter, minimum temperature of the coldest month, annual mean temperature and mean temperature of the driest quarter. The optimum suitable areas of longan were found to be concentrated mainly in south-western, southern and eastern China, with a slight increase in optimum suitable areas under two different emission scenarios of three global climatic models. However, its future potential growing areas were predicted to differ among provinces or cities. Suitable growing areas in Sichuan, Jiangxi, Guangxi and Chongqing will first increase and then remain approximately unchanged between the 2050s and 2070s; those in Yunnan, Guangdong and Hainan will remain approximately unchanged from the present to the 2070s; those in Fujian and Guizhou will fluctuate slightly from the present to the 2050s and then increase to the 2070s; those in Taiwan will first decrease and then increase. In summary, the major future production areas of longan will be Guangdong, Hainan and Guangxi provinces, followed by Chongqing, Yunnan, Fujian and Taiwan. Thus, this study serves as a useful guide for the management of longan.