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We studied trends in the incidence of health care-associated infections (HAIs) in LTCFs between 2009 and 2015 and determined the effect of participation in our network. Elder-care physicians reported weekly the number of cases of influenza-like illness, gastroenteritis, (probable) pneumonia, urinary tract infections (UTIs) and all-cause mortality. Trends in the incidence of infection and mortality in relation to LTCF characteristics were calculated using multilevel univariate and multivariate logistic regression. Thirty LTCF participated for 3 years or more, 16 for 2 years and the remaining 12 LTCF for 1 year. During the study period, the median number of beds decreased from 158 to 139, whereas the percentage of residents with private bedrooms increased from 14% to 87%. UTIs were the most frequently reported infections, followed by (probable) pneumonia and gastroenteritis. Adjusted for calendar year and season, we observed a statistically significant decrease in the incidence of influenza-like illness (odds ratio (OR) = 0.8, P < 0.01) and (probable) pneumonia (OR = 0.8, P < 0.01) for each extra year an LTCF participated. Although there are other likely contributors, such as more private rooms and enhanced infection control measures, the decreasing trend of HAI in LTCFs participating in surveillance implies that surveillance is a valuable addition to current strategies to optimise infection control.
Music performance anxiety (MPA) is one of the most common disorders among professional musicians, nevertheless, little is known about the disease. With this systematic review, prevalence, risk factors and treatment procedures for MPA were assessed, and for the first time, quality assessments were carried out for all studies using standardized assessment tools. A systematic literature search was conducted via search algorithms in the databases MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, PsycArticles, PsycInfo and ERIC. Included were case reports, case–control, cohort, cross-sectional and intervention studies examining professional musicians with MPA. For quality assessment, adapted tools of the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute were used. A total of 43 studies were included (10 case reports, 21 intervention, 11 cross-sectional, one cohort study). Quality ratings ranged from −11 to 6 out of a maximum of 15/16 points for cross-sectional/cohort studies and −4 to 11 out of 18 points for intervention studies. The prevalence of MPA was between 16.5% and 60%. More women than men were affected and musicians older than 45–50 years reported less MPA than younger musicians. Regarding treatment cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) and β-blockers were most often researched with beneficial results for CBT. However, studies with adequate control groups for CBT interventions are needed to clarify its efficacy. Studies showed methodological weaknesses, especially in the selection of participants, recording of influencing factors, blinding of interventions, randomization of participants and analysis of comorbidity. Recommendations for further research are made.
Paediatric hearing loss rates in Ghana are currently unknown.
A cross-sectional study was conducted in peri-urban Kumasi, Ghana; children (aged 3–15 years) were recruited from randomly selected households. Selected children underwent otoscopic examination prior to in-community pure tone screening using the portable ShoeBox audiometer. The LittlEars auditory questionnaire was also administered to caregivers and parents.
Data were collected from 387 children. After conditioning, 362 children were screened using monaural pure tones presented at 25 dB. Twenty-five children could not be conditioned to behavioural audiometric screening. Eight children were referred based on audiometric screening results. Of those, four were identified as having hearing loss. Four children scored less than the maximum mark of 35 on the LittleEars questionnaire. Of those, three had hearing loss as identified through pure tone screening. The predominant physical finding on otoscopy was ear canal cerumen impaction.
Paediatric hearing loss is prevalent in Ghana, and should be treated as a public health problem warranting further evaluation and epidemiology characterisation.
In the Republic of Korea, despite the introduction of one-dose universal varicella vaccination in 2005 and achieving a high coverage rate of 98.9% in 2012, the incidence rate has been increased sevenfold. This study aimed to investigate time trends of varicella incidence rate, assessing the age, period and birth cohort effects. We used national data on the annual number of reported cases from 2006 to 2017. A log-linear Poisson regression model was used to estimate age–period–cohort effects on varicella incidence rate. From 2006 to 2017, the incidence of varicella increased from 22.5 cases to more than 154.8 cases per 100 000. Peak incidence has shifted from 4 to 6 years old. The estimated period and cohort effects showed significant upward patterns, with a linear increasing trend by net drift. There has been an increase in the incidence among the Korean population regarding period and cohort despite the universal vaccination of varicella vaccine. Our data suggest the need for additional studies to address the current gap in herd immunity.
We conducted probabilistic data linkage of three population datasets for the Northern Territory (NT), Australia, to describe the incidence of preterm births, stillbirths, low birthweight and small for gestational age (SGA) per 1000 NT births; and influenza and pertussis hospitalisations per 1 00 000 NT births in infants <7 months of age, in a pre-maternal vaccination era. The Perinatal Trends dataset (1994–2014) formed the cohort of 78 382 births. Aboriginal mother–infant pairs (37%) had disproportionately higher average annual rates (AR) for all adverse birth outcomes compared to their non-Aboriginal counterparts; rate ratios: preterm births 2.2 (AR 142.4 vs. 64.7); stillbirths 2.3 (AR 10.8 vs. 4.6); low birthweight 2.9 (AR 54 vs. 19); and SGA 1.7 (AR 187 vs. 111). Hospitalisation (2000–2015) and Immunisation Register datasets (1994–2015), showed that influenza hospitalisations (n = 53) and rates were 42.3 times higher in Aboriginal infants (AR 254 vs. 6); and that pertussis hospitalisations (n = 37) were 7.1 times higher in Aboriginal infants (AR 142.5 vs. 20.2) compared to non-Aboriginal infants. These baseline data are essential to assess the safety and effectiveness of influenza and pertussis vaccinations in pregnant women from the NT. Remote living Aboriginal women and infants stand to benefit the most from these vaccines.
Diagnosing eating disorders can be difficult and few people with the disorder receive specialist services despite the associated high morbidity and mortality.
To examine the burden of eating disorders in the population in terms of incidence, comorbidities and survival.
We used linked electronic health records from general practitioner and hospital admissions in Wales, UK within the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) databank to investigate the incidence of new eating disorder diagnoses. We examined the frequency of comorbid diagnoses and prescribed medications in cases and controls in the 2 years before and 3 years after diagnosis, and performed a survival analysis.
A total of 15 558 people were diagnosed with eating disorders between 1990 and 2017. The incidence peaked at 24 per 100 000 people in 2003/04. People with eating disorders showed higher levels of other mental disorders (odds ratio 4.32, 95% CI 4.01–4.66) and external causes of morbidity and mortality (odds ratio 2.92, 95% CI 2.44–3.50). They had greater prescription of central nervous system drugs (odds ratio 3.15, 95% CI 2.97–3.33), gastrointestinal drugs (odds ratio 2.61, 95% CI 2.45–2.79) and dietetic drugs (odds ratio 2.42, 95% CI 2.24–2.62) before diagnosis. These excess diagnoses and prescriptions remained 3 years after diagnosis. Mortality was raised compared with controls for some eating disorders, particularly in females with anorexia nervosa.
Incidence of diagnosed eating disorders is relatively low in the population but there is a major longer term burden in morbidity and mortality to the individual.
Optimal transition from child to adult services involves continuity, joint care, planning meetings and information transfer; commissioners and service providers therefore need data on how many people require that service. Although attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) frequently persists into adulthood, evidence is limited on these transitions.
To estimate the national incidence of young people taking medication for ADHD that require and complete transition, and to describe the proportion that experienced optimal transition.
Surveillance over 12 months using the British Paediatric Surveillance Unit and Child and Adolescent Psychiatry Surveillance System, including baseline notification and follow-up questionnaires.
Questionnaire response was 79% at baseline and 82% at follow-up. For those aged 17–19, incident rate (range adjusted for non-response) of transition need was 202–511 per 100 000 people aged 17–19 per year, with successful transition of 38–96 per 100 000 people aged 17–19 per year. Eligible young people with ADHD were mostly male (77%) with a comorbid condition (62%). Half were referred to specialist adult ADHD and 25% to general adult mental health services; 64% had referral accepted but only 22% attended a first appointment. Only 6% met optimal transition criteria.
As inclusion criteria required participants to be on medication, these estimates represent the lower limit of the transition need. Two critical points were apparent: referral acceptance and first appointment attendance. The low rate of successful transition and limited guideline adherence indicates significant need for commissioners and service providers to improve service transition experiences.
We estimated the incidence of first-episode psychosis over a 3-year period in a Brazilian catchment area comprising the region's main city, Ribeirão Preto (1 425 306 persons-years at risk), and 25 other municipalities with a total of 1 646 556 persons-years at risk. The incidence rates were estimated and adjusted by gender and age, using the direct standardisation method to the world population as reference. The incidence of psychosis was higher in the younger groups, men, and among Black and minority ethnic Brazilians. Psychosis incidence was lower in Ribeirão Preto (16.69/100 000 person-years at risk; 95% CI 15.68–17.70) compared with the average incidence in the remaining municipalities (21.25/100 000 person-years at risk; 95% CI 20.20–22.31), which have lower population density, suggesting a distinct role for urbanicity in the incidence of first-episode psychosis in low- and middle-income countries.
Guangxi, a province in southwestern China, has the second highest reported number of HIV/AIDS cases in China. This study aimed to develop an accurate and effective model to describe the tendency of HIV and to predict its incidence in Guangxi. HIV incidence data of Guangxi from 2005 to 2016 were obtained from the database of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network models, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models, generalised regression neural network (GRNN) models and exponential smoothing (ES) were used to fit the incidence data. Data from 2015 and 2016 were used to validate the most suitable models. The model performances were evaluated by evaluating metrics, including mean square error (MSE), root mean square error, mean absolute error and mean absolute percentage error. The LSTM model had the lowest MSE when the N value (time step) was 12. The most appropriate ARIMA models for incidence in 2015 and 2016 were ARIMA (1, 1, 2) (0, 1, 2)12 and ARIMA (2, 1, 0) (1, 1, 2)12, respectively. The accuracy of GRNN and ES models in forecasting HIV incidence in Guangxi was relatively poor. Four performance metrics of the LSTM model were all lower than the ARIMA, GRNN and ES models. The LSTM model was more effective than other time-series models and is important for the monitoring and control of local HIV epidemics.
Ehrlichiosis is a zoonotic illness caused by Ehrlichia pathogens transmitted by ticks. Case data from 1999 to 2015, provided by the Missouri Department of Health and Senior Services (DHSS), were used to compare the seasonality and the change in incidence over time of ehrlichiosis infection in two Missouri ecoregions, Eastern Temperate Forest (ETF) and Great Plains (GP). Although the number of cases has increased over time in both ecoregions, the rate of change was significantly faster in ETF region. There was no significant difference in seasonality of ehrlichiosis between ecoregions. In Missouri, the estimated ehrlichiosis season begins, on average, in mid-March, peaks in June, and concludes in mid-October. Our results show that the exposure and risk season for ehrlichiosis in Missouri is at least 7 months long.
Objectives: We assessed trends in the incidence, prevalence, and post-diagnosis mortality of parkinsonism in Ontario, Canada over 18 years. We also explored the influence of a range of risk factors for brain health on the trend of incident parkinsonism. Methods: We established an open cohort by linking population-based health administrative databases from 1996 to 2014 in Ontario. The study population comprised residents aged 20–100 years with an incident diagnosis of parkinsonism ascertained using a validated algorithm. We calculated age- and sex-standardized incidence, prevalence, and mortality of parkinsonism, stratified by young onset (20–39 years) and mid/late onset (≥40 years). We assessed trends in incidence using Poisson regression, mortality using negative binomial regression, and prevalence of parkinsonism and pre-existing conditions (e.g., head injury) using the Cochran–Armitage trend test. To better understand trends in the incidence of mid/late-onset parkinsonism, we adjusted for various pre-existing conditions in the Poisson regression model. Results: From 1996 to 2014, we identified 73,129 incident cases of parkinsonism (source population of ∼10.5 million), of whom 56% were male, mean age at diagnosis was 72.6 years, and 99% had mid/late-onset parkinsonism. Over 18 years, the age- and sex-standardized incidence decreased by 13.0% for mid/late-onset parkinsonism but remained unchanged for young-onset parkinsonism. The age- and sex-standardized prevalence increased by 22.8%, while post-diagnosis mortality decreased by 5.5%. Adjustment for pre-existing conditions did not appreciably explain the declining incidence of mid/late-onset parkinsonism. Conclusion: Young-onset and mid/late-onset parkinsonism exhibited differing trends in incidence over 18 years in Ontario. Further research to identify other factors that may appreciably explain trends in incident parkinsonism is warranted.
Studying birth-cohort differences in depression incidence and their explanatory factors may provide insight into the aetiology of depression and could help to optimise prevention strategies to reduce the worldwide burden of depression.
Data were used from the Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam, a nationally representative study among community dwelling older adults in the Netherlands. Cohort differences in depression incidence over a 10-year-period (score ⩾16 on the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression scale) were tested using a cohort-sequential-longitudinal-design, comparing two identically measured cohorts of non-depressed 55–64-year-olds, born 10-years apart. Baseline measurements took place in 1992/93 (early cohort, n = 794), and 2002/03 (recent cohort, n = 771). As indicated by the dynamic equilibrium model of depression, potential explanatory factors were distinguished in risk and protective factors.
The incidence rates for depression in the early and recent cohort were 1.91 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.59–2.27) and 1.60 (95% CI 1.31–1.94) per 100 person-years, respectively. A 29% risk reduction in depression incidence was observed in the recent cohort (HRcohort: 0.71, 95% CI 0.54–0.92, p = 0.011), as compared with the early cohort, even though average levels of risk factors such as chronic disease and functional limitations had increased. This reduction was primarily explained by increased levels of education, mastery and labour market participation.
These findings suggest that favourable developments of protective factors have counterbalanced unfavourable effects of risk factors on the incidence of depression, resulting in a net reduction of depression incidence among young-old adults. However, maintaining a good physical health must be a priority to further decrease depression rates.
Chagas disease, whose aetiological agent is the protozoan Trypanosoma cruzi, mainly occurs in Latin America. In order to know the epidemiology and the geographical distribution of this disease in Mexico, the present work analyses the national surveillance data (10 years) for Chagas disease issued by the General Directorate of Epidemiology (GDE). An ecological analysis of Chagas disease (2007–2016) was performed in the annual reports issued by the GDE in Mexico. The cases and incidence were classified by year, state, age group, gender and seasons. A national distribution map showing Chagas disease incidence was generated. An increase of new cases was identified throughout the country (rates from 0.37 to 0.81 per 100 000 inhabitants). Of the total cases accumulated (7388), the major cases were attributed to the states of Veracruz, Chiapas, Quintana Roo, Oaxaca, Morelos and Yucatán. The analysis per age groups and gender revealed that, in most age groups, the incidence was higher in the male population. The most number of cases was identified in spring and summer; a direct relationship between the environmental temperature increase and the number of new cases was identified. The analysis showed that the rate of Chagas disease increased presumably due to state programmes; the search for new cases has expanded and we speculate that the disease is associated with occupational activities. These results summarise and recall how important it is to implement the monitoring of Chagas disease mainly in south states of the Mexican Republic in order to implement strategies to control this disease.
Japan is still a medium-burden tuberculosis (TB) country. We aimed to examine trends in newly notified active TB incidence and TB-related mortality in the last two decades in Japan. This is a population-based study using Japanese Vital Statistics and Japan Tuberculosis Surveillance from 1997 to 2016. We determined active TB incidence and mortality rates (per 100 000 population) by sex, age and disease categories. Joinpoint regression was applied to calculate the annual percentage change (APC) in age-adjusted mortality rates and to identify the years showing significant trend changes. Crude and age-adjusted incidence rates reduced from 33.9 to 13.9 and 37.3 to 11.3 per 100 000 population, respectively. Also, crude and age-adjusted mortality rates reduced from 2.2 to 1.5 and 2.8 to 1.0 per 100 000 population, respectively. Average APC in the incidence and mortality rates showed significant decline both in men (−6.2% and −5.4%, respectively) and women (−5.7% and −4.6%, respectively). Age-specific analysis demonstrated decreases in incidence and mortality rates for every age category, except for the incidence trend in the younger population. Although trends in active TB incidence and mortality rates in Japan have favourably decreased, the rate of decline is far from achieving TB elimination by 2035.
Due to differences in the circulation of influenza viruses, distribution and antigenic drift of A subtypes and B lineages, and susceptibility to infection in the population, the incidence of symptomatic influenza infection can vary widely between seasons and age-groups. Our goal was to estimate the symptomatic infection incidence in the Netherlands for the six seasons 2011/2012 through 2016/2017, using Bayesian evidence synthesis methodology to combine season-specific sentinel surveillance data on influenza-like illness (ILI), virus detections in sampled ILI cases and data on healthcare-seeking behaviour. Estimated age-aggregated incidence was 6.5 per 1000 persons (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 4.7–9.0) for season 2011/2012, 36.7 (95% UI: 31.2–42.8) for 2012/2013, 9.1 (95% UI: 6.3–12.9) for 2013/2014, 41.1 (95% UI: 35.0–47.7) for 2014/2015, 39.4 (95% UI: 33.4–46.1) for 2015/2016 and 27.8 (95% UI: 22.7–33.7) for season 2016/2017. Incidence varied substantially between age-groups (highest for the age-group <5 years: 23 to 47/1000, but relatively low for 65+ years: 2 to 34/1000 over the six seasons). Integration of all relevant data sources within an evidence synthesis framework has allowed the estimation – with appropriately quantified uncertainty – of the incidence of symptomatic influenza virus infection. These estimates provide valuable insight into the variation in influenza epidemics across seasons, by virus subtype and lineage, and between age-groups.
Discrepancies between population-based estimates of the incidence of psychotic disorder and the treated incidence reported by early psychosis intervention (EPI) programs suggest additional cases may be receiving services elsewhere in the health system. Our objective was to estimate the incidence of non-affective psychotic disorder in the catchment area of an EPI program, and compare this to EPI-treated incidence estimates.
We constructed a retrospective cohort (1997–2015) of incident cases of non-affective psychosis aged 16–50 years in an EPI program catchment using population-based linked health administrative data. Cases were identified by either one hospitalization or two outpatient physician billings within a 12-month period with a diagnosis of non-affective psychosis. We estimated the cumulative incidence and EPI-treated incidence of non-affective psychosis using denominator data from the census. We also estimated the incidence of first-episode psychosis (people who would meet the case definition for an EPI program) using a novel approach.
Our case definition identified 3245 cases of incident non-affective psychosis over the 17-year period. We estimate that the incidence of first-episode non-affective psychosis in the program catchment area is 33.3 per 100 000 per year (95% CI 31.4–35.1), which is more than twice as high as the EPI-treated incidence of 18.8 per 100 000 per year (95% CI 17.4–20.3).
Case ascertainment strategies limited to specialized psychiatric services may substantially underestimate the incidence of non-affective psychotic disorders, relative to population-based estimates. Accurate information on the epidemiology of first-episode psychosis will enable us to more effectively resource EPI services and evaluate their coverage.
To establish the prevalence of hypocalcaemia following laryngectomy and demonstrate that total thyroidectomy is a risk factor.
A retrospective cohort study was conducted that included all patients who underwent total laryngectomy from 1st January 2006 to 1st August 2017. Exclusion criteria were: pre-operative calcium derangement, previous thyroid or parathyroid surgery, concurrent glossectomy, pharyngectomy, or oesophagectomy.
Ninety patients were included. Sixteen patients had early hypocalcaemia (18 per cent), seven had protracted hypocalcaemia (8 per cent) and six had permanent hypocalcaemia (10 per cent). Exact logistic regression values for hypocalcaemia following total thyroidectomy compared to other patients were: early hypocalcaemia, odds ratio = 15.5 (95 per cent confidence interval = 2.2–181.9; model p = 0.002); protracted hypocalcaemia, odds ratio = 13.3 (95 per cent confidence interval = 1.5–117.1; model p = 0.01); and permanent hypocalcaemia, odds ratio = 22.7 (95 per cent confidence interval = 1.9–376.5; model p = 0.005).
This is the largest study to investigate the prevalence of hypocalcaemia following laryngectomy and the first to include follow up of longer than three months. Total thyroidectomy significantly increased the risk of hypocalcaemia at all time frames and independent of other variables.
At present, the number of people with tuberculosis in China is second only to India and ranks second in the world. Under such a severe case of tuberculosis in China, prevention and control of pulmonary tuberculosis are urgently needed. This study aimed to study the temporal and geographical relevance of the pathogenesis of pulmonary tuberculosis and the factors affecting the incidence of tuberculosis. Spatial autocorrelation model was used to study the spatial distribution characteristics of pulmonary tuberculosis from a quantitative level. The research results showed that the overall incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis (IPT) in China was low in the east, high in the west and had certain seasonal characteristics. We use Spatial Lag Model to explore influencing factors of pulmonary tuberculosis. It indicates that the IPT is high in areas with underdeveloped economics, poor social services and low average smoking ages. Additionally, the IPT is high in areas with high AIDS prevalence. Also, compared with Classical Regression Model and Spatial Error Model, our model has smaller values of Akaike information criterion and Schwarz criterion. Besides, our model has bigger values of coefficient of determination (R2) and log-likelihood (log L) than the other two models. Apart from that, it is more significant than Spatial Error Models in the spatial dependence test for the IPT.
Tardive dyskinesia is a common iatrogenic neurological and neurobehavioural syndrome associated with the use of antidopaminergic medication, especially antipsychotics. Prior to the introduction of the newer antipsychotics in the 1990s, it was one of the major areas of psychiatric research but interest waned as the new drugs were reputed to have a reduced liability to extrapyramidal adverse effects in general, a claim now discredited by numerous pragmatic research studies. Early small-scale short-term prevalence studies were presented as evidence to support the assumption that patients on the newer drugs did indeed have a lower prevalence of tardive dyskinesia but recent large-scale review of studies with patients exposed for longer suggest that things have not changed. This article presents a clinical overview of a complex and varied syndrome in terms of its phenomenology, epidemiology and risk factors; a companion article will consider treatment. This overview aims to highlight tardive dyskinesia once again, especially to practitioners who have trained in an environment where this was considered mainly in historical terms.
•Understand the complex phenomenology comprising the syndrome of tardive dyskinesia
•Appreciate recent data on prevalence and incidence with the newer antipsychotics
•Be aware of risk factors when recommending antipsychotic (and other antidopaminergic) drugs
Abdominal obesity (AO) is a relative risk factor for cardiovascular events. We aimed to determine the 6-year incidence of AO and its risk factors among Tehranian adults.
In this population-based cohort study, non-abdominally obese participants, aged ≥20 years, were followed for incidence of AO. Cumulative incidence and incidence rate of AO were calculated for each sex. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to determine the association of potential risk factors including age, BMI, dysmetabolic state, smoking, marital status, educational level and physical activity (PA).
A total of 5044 participants (1912 men) were followed for a median of 6 years. Mean age was 37·7 (sd 13·5) years at baseline, with mean BMI of 24·3 (sd 3·1) kg/m2 (men, 23·0 (sd 2·4) kg/m2; women, 25·0 (sd 3·2) kg/m2). During follow-up, 3093 (1373 men) developed AO with total cumulative incidence of 76·02, 83·59 and 70·90 %, for the whole population, men and women, respectively. Corresponding incidence rates were 96·0, 138·7 and 77·1 per 1000 person-years. The highest incidence rate was observed during their 30s and 50s, in men and women, respectively. Subjects with dysmetabolic state in both sexes, married women, men with lower PA and higher educational levels at baseline were at higher risk of AO.
The incidence of AO is high among Tehranian adults, especially in young men. The risk factors for developing AO should be highlighted to halt this growing trend of AO.