Within Model-based Systems Engineering different kinds of model will be created to support the execution of engineering activites. This contribution introduces an evaluation concept which focuses on the model informativity and its usefulness within the modelling process. Thereby, it shall be investigated which advantages the integration of model elements based on different levels of abstraction and a reduction of model formalisation enables. For the model creation the analogue modelling method will be applied, which uses physical (tangible) model elements.

We investigated the efficiency of the autoregressive repeatability model (AR) for genetic evaluation of longitudinal reproductive traits in Portuguese Holstein cattle and compared the results with those from the conventional repeatability model (REP). The data set comprised records taken during the first four calving orders, corresponding to a total of 416, 766, 872 and 766 thousand records for interval between calving to first service, days open, calving interval and daughter pregnancy rate, respectively. Both models included fixed (month and age classes associated to each calving order) and random (herd-year-season, animal and permanent environmental) effects. For AR model, a first-order autoregressive (co)variance structure was fitted for the herd-year-season and permanent environmental effects. The AR outperformed the REP model, with lower Akaike Information Criteria, lower Mean Square Error and Akaike Weights close to unity. Rank correlations between estimated breeding values (EBV) with AR and REP models ranged from 0.95 to 0.97 for all studied reproductive traits, when the total bulls were considered. When considering only the top-100 selected bulls, the rank correlation ranged from 0.72 to 0.88. These results indicate that the re-ranking observed at the top level will provide more opportunities for selecting the best bulls. The EBV reliabilities provided by AR model was larger for all traits, but the magnitudes of the annual genetic progress were similar between two models. Overall, the proposed AR model was suitable for genetic evaluations of longitudinal reproductive traits in dairy cattle, outperforming the REP model.

The herd dynamic milk (HDM) model is a dynamic model capable of simulating the performance of individual dairy animals (from birth to death), with a daily time step. Within this study, the HDM model is described and evaluated in relation to milk production, body condition score (BCS) and BCS change throughout lactation by comparing model simulations against data from published experimental studies. The model’s response to variation in genetic potential, herbage allowance and concentrate supplementation was tested in a sensitivity analysis. Data from experiments in Ireland and France over a 3-year period (2009–11) were used to complete the evaluation. The aim of the Irish experiment was to determine the impact of different stocking rates (SRs) (SR1: 3.28 cow/ha, SR2: 2.51 cow/ha) on key physical, biological and economic performance. The aim of the French experiment was to evaluate over a prolonged time period, the ability of two breeds of dairy cows (Holstein and Normande) to produce and to reproduce under two feeding strategies (high level and low level) in the context of compact calving. The model evaluation was conducted at the herd level with separate evaluations for the primiparous and multiparous cows. The evaluation included the two extreme SRs for the Irish experiment, and an evaluation at the overall herd and individual animal level for the different breeds and feeding levels for the French data. The comparison of simulation and experimental data for all scenarios resulted in a relative prediction error, which was consistently <15% across experiments for weekly milk production and BCS. In relation to BCS, the highest root mean square error was 0.27 points of BCS, which arose for Holstein cows in the low feeding group in late lactation. The model responded in a realistic fashion to variation in genetic potential for milk production, herbage allowance and concentrate supplementation.

Laboratory somatic cell count (LSCC) records are usually recorded monthly and provide an important information source for breeding and herd management. Daily milk viscosity detection in composite milking (expressed as drain time) with an automated on-line California Mastitis Test (CMT) could serve immediately as an early predictor of udder diseases and might be used as a selection criterion to improve udder health. The aim of the present study was to clarify the relationship between the well-established LSCS and the new trait,‘drain time’, and to estimate their correlations to important production traits. Data were recorded on the dairy research farm Karkendamm in Germany. Viscosity sensors were installed on every fourth milking stall in the rotary parlour to measure daily drain time records. Weekly LSCC and milk composition data were available. Two data sets were created containing records of 187 692 milkings from 320 cows (D1) and 25 887 drain time records from 311 cows (D2). Different fixed effect models, describing the log-transformed drain time (logDT), were fitted to achieve applicable models for further analysis. Lactation curves were modelled with standard parametric functions (Ali and Schaeffer, Legendre polynomials of second and third degree) of days in milk (DIM). Random regression models were further applied to estimate the correlations between cow effects between logDT and LSCS with further important production traits. LogDT and LSCS were strongest correlated in mid-lactation (r = 0·78). Correlations between logDT and production traits were low to medium. Highest correlations were reached in late lactation between logDT and milk yield (r = −0·31), between logDT and protein content (r = 0·30) and in early as well as in late lactation between logDT and lactose content (r = −0·28). The results of the present study show that the drain time could be used as a new trait for daily mastitis control.

Predictive modelling of deep-sea species and assemblages with multibeam acoustic datasets as input variables is now a key tool in the provision of maps upon which spatial planning and management of the marine environment can be based. However, with a multitude of methods available, advice is needed on the best methods for the task at hand. In this study, we predictively modelled the distribution and extent of three vulnerable marine ecosystems (VMEs) at the assemblage level (‘Lophelia pertusa reef frameworks’; ‘Stylasterids and lobose sponges’; and ‘Xenophyophore fields’) on the eastern flank of Rockall Bank, using three modelling methods: MaxEnt; RandomForests classification with multiple assemblages (gRF); and RandomForests classification with the presence/absence of a single VME (saRF). Performance metrics indicated that MaxEnt performed the best, but all models were considered valid. All three methods broadly agreed with regard to broad patterns in distribution. However, predicted extent presented a variation of up to 35 % between the different methods, and clear differences in predicted distribution were observed. We conclude that the choice of method is likely to influence the results of predicted maps, potentially impacting political decisions about deep-sea VME conservation.

The Antarctic coast is an area of high cyclonic activity. Specifically, the regions of Terra Nova Bay, in the western Ross Sea, and Byrd Glacier, in the western Ross Ice Shelf, are prone to cyclone development. The United States, New Zealand, and Italian Antarctic programmes conduct extensive research activities in the region of the western Ross Sea. Due to the harsh weather conditions associated with the cyclonic systems that occur in this region and the abundant research activities in the area, it is important to be able to accurately predict the timing, location and strength of cyclones in this sector of Antarctica. This study evaluates the ability of the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (from 2006–09) to accurately forecast cyclones in the region of the western Ross Sea by comparing the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System forecasts to cyclones identified in infrared satellite imagery. The results indicate that the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System is able to accurately predict the presence of cyclones about 40% of the time (at a minimum) and the presence of no cyclones about 70% of the time.

Daily financial returns (and daily stock returns, in particular) are commonly modeled as GARCH(1, 1) processes. Here we test this specification using new model evaluation technology developed by Ashley and Patterson that examines the ability of the estimated model to reproduce features of particular interest: various aspects of nonlinear serial dependence, in the present instance. Using daily returns to the CRSP equally weighted stock index, we find that the GARCH(1, 1) specification cannot be rejected; thus, this model appears to be reasonably adequate in terms of reproducing the kinds of nonlinear serial dependence addressed by the battery of nonlinearity tests used here.

According to both cybernetics and general system theory, a subject develops and uses an adequate model of a system to widen his/her knowledge about the system. Models are then the interface between a subject and a real-world system to solve a problem and to construct knowledge. Hence, evaluating these models is crucial to ensure the quality of the constructed knowledge. We propose here an evaluation framework to assess complex models based on the intrinsic properties of these models as well as the properties of the derived knowledge. A series of 40 evaluation criteria are proposed under the four systemic axes: ontology, functioning, evolution, and teleology. Through a case study, we show how our evaluation model allows both presenting a given model and assessing it.

Atmospheric pollution models are generally evaluated using measures of the difference between predicted and observed concentrations. These statistics can be inadequate as they tend to be sensitive to small errors in the timing of peak events that are generally of little consequence from a health point of view. This paper presents a technique for evaluating atmospheric carbon monoxide models based on the statistical properties of the uptake of carbon monoxide, rather than relying on traditional model evaluation measures. A simple semi-empirical atmospheric carbon monoxide model is used as an example to illustrate the approach.

We develop a protocol for estimating the free energy difference between different conformations of the same polypeptide chain. The conformational free energy evaluation combines the CHARMM force field with a continuum treatment of the solvent. In almost all cases studied, experimentally determined structures are predicted to be more stable than misfolded “decoys.” This is due in part to the fact that the Coulomb energy of the native protein is consistently lower than that of the decoys. The solvation free energy generally favors the decoys, although the total electrostatic free energy (sum of Coulomb and solvation terms) favors the native structure. The behavior of the solvation free energy is somewhat counterintuitive and, surprisingly, is not correlated with differences in the burial of polar area between native structures and decoys. Rather, the effect is due to a more favorable charge distribution in the native protein, which, as is discussed, will tend to decrease its interaction with the solvent. Our results thus suggest, in keeping with a number of recent studies, that electrostatic interactions may play an important role in determining the native topology of a folded protein. On this basis, a simplified scoring function is derived that combines a Coulomb term with a hydrophobic contact term. This function performs as well as the more complete free energy evaluation in distinguishing the native structure from misfolded decoys. Its computational efficiency suggests that it can be used in protein structure prediction applications, and that it provides a physically well-defined alternative to statistically derived scoring functions.