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We study the asset allocation decision of a life insurance company’s general account with respect to the possibility of large negative economic shocks and examine how this account is affected by policyholder investment decisions in the company’s separate account. This is accomplished using a performance metric that incorporates downside risk measured using univariate and multivariate extreme value distributions. Because of its well-known price volatility, diversification attributes, and significant weight in the combined general and separate accounts, our primary focus is the company’s equity investments. Although industry asset allocations have varied over the past two decades, we find that the actual allocations to equity in the general account are close to the allocation percentages suggested by our extreme value metrics and both are far below the maximum values indicated by the relevant regulatory bodies.
OBJECTIVES/SPECIFIC AIMS: Clinical guidelines recommend using predicted atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk to inform treatment decisions. The objective was to compare the contribution of changes in modifiable risk factors Versus aging to the development of high 10-year predicted ASCVD risk. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: Prospective follow-up of the Jackson Heart Study, an exclusively African-American cohort, at visit 1 (2000–2004) and visit 3 (2009–2012). Analyses included 1115 African-American participants without a high 10-year predicted ASCVD risk (<7.5%), hypertension, diabetes, or ASCVD at visit 1. We used the Pooled Cohort equations to calculate the incidence of high (≥7.5%) 10-year predicted ASCVD risk at visit 3. We recalculated the percentage with a high 10-year predicted ASCVD risk at visit 3 assuming each risk factor [age, systolic blood pressure (SBP), antihypertensive medication use, diabetes, smoking, total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol], one at a time, did not change from visit 1. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: The mean age at visit 1 was 45.2±9.5 years. Overall, 30.9% (95% CI 28.3%–33.4%) of participants developed high 10-year predicted ASCVD risk. Aging accounted for 59.7% (95% CI 54.2%–65.1%) of the development of high 10-year predicted ASCVD risk compared with 32.8% (95% CI 27.0%–38.2%) for increases in SBP or antihypertensive medication initiation and 12.8% (95% CI 9.6%–16.5%) for incident diabetes. Among participants <50 years, the contribution of increases in SBP or antihypertensive medication initiation was similar to aging. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE OF IMPACT: Increases in SBP and antihypertensive medication initiation are major contributors to the development of high 10-year predicted ASCVD risk in African Americans, particularly among younger adults.
The collective response of electrons in an ultrathin foil target irradiated by an ultraintense (
) laser pulse is investigated experimentally and via 3D particle-in-cell simulations. It is shown that if the target is sufficiently thin that the laser induces significant radiation pressure, but not thin enough to become relativistically transparent to the laser light, the resulting relativistic electron beam is elliptical, with the major axis of the ellipse directed along the laser polarization axis. When the target thickness is decreased such that it becomes relativistically transparent early in the interaction with the laser pulse, diffraction of the transmitted laser light occurs through a so called ‘relativistic plasma aperture’, inducing structure in the spatial-intensity profile of the beam of energetic electrons. It is shown that the electron beam profile can be modified by variation of the target thickness and degree of ellipticity in the laser polarization.
Extensive long-term excavations at Gill Mill revealed polyfocal floodplain settlement of middle Iron Age date, one area continuing in occupation into the early/mid-third century a.d. Elsewhere a nucleated site of c. 10 ha developed de novo from the early second century around a network of minor roads. Characterised by extensive systems of enclosures and limited structural evidence (but probably including a shrine), this settlement, occupied up to about a.d. 370, is interpreted as concerned principally with cattle management and marketing, perhaps with a partly seasonal population base.