The incidence of scarlet fever has increased dramatically in recent years in Chongqing, China, but there has no effective method to forecast it. This study aimed to develop a forecasting model of the incidence of scarlet fever using a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. Monthly scarlet fever data between 2011 and 2019 in Chongqing, China were retrieved from the Notifiable Infectious Disease Surveillance System. From 2011 to 2019, a total of 5073 scarlet fever cases were reported in Chongqing, the male-to-female ratio was 1.44:1, children aged 3–9 years old accounted for 81.86% of the cases, while 42.70 and 42.58% of the reported cases were students and kindergarten children, respectively. The data from 2011 to 2018 were used to fit a SARIMA model and data in 2019 were used to validate the model. The normalised Bayesian information criterion (BIC), the coefficient of determination (R2) and the root mean squared error (RMSE) were used to evaluate the goodness-of-fit of the fitted model. The optimal SARIMA model was identified as (3, 1, 3) (3, 1, 0)12. The RMSE and mean absolute per cent error (MAPE) were used to assess the accuracy of the model. The RMSE and MAPE of the predicted values were 19.40 and 0.25 respectively, indicating that the predicted values matched the observed values reasonably well. Taken together, the SARIMA model could be employed to forecast scarlet fever incidence trend, providing support for scarlet fever control and prevention.

ABSTRACT IMPACT: Our results reveal a limited amount of breast cancer survivorship print materials as both understandable and actionable, and indicate a need to supplement material with personalized teaching. OBJECTIVES/GOALS: Using educational print material for young women breast cancer survivors (YBCS) is considered a best practice in patient teaching. Little is known about how well YBCS understand or act upon the material. The purpose of this study was to assess the understandability and actionability of commonly distributed breast cancer survivorship print materials. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: We used an environmental scan approach to obtain breast cancer survivorship print materials available in eight outpatient oncology clinics and one electronic medical record used in a Midwestern state. Print materials were included if they were freely available to patients, were specific to breast cancer, provided detailed information about survivorship, and were directly given to patients by physicians or nurses. Print materials were excluded if topics were related to treatment, diagnosis, or prevention. All brochures, drug advertisements, and advertisements for support services were excluded. The understandability and actionability analyses of the breast cancer survivorship print materials were analyzed using Patient Education Materials Assessment Tool for Printable Materials (PEMAT-P). RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: The environmental scan resulted in 82 individual print materials. After applying the inclusion and exclusion criteria, eight breast cancer survivorship print materials were included in the final sample. The final sample included two books, two patient education handouts from the electronic medical record, two multi-page booklets, and two pamphlets. The overall mean understandability score of the print materials was 68.9% ? 11.3 with a range of 47% to 80%. Five materials scored above the recommended 70% in understandability. The overall mean actionability score of the print materials was much higher at 81.3% ? 21.6 with a range of 67% to 100%. Five materials scored above 70% in actionability. However, only three of the eight materials scored above the recommended 70% in both understandability and actionability. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE OF FINDINGS: Limited breast cancer survivorship print materials exist as both understandable and actionable. Personalized instruction provided by oncology team members may be indicated to supplement the material. This additional teaching may help ensure survivors comprehend messages and act upon specific tasks as indicated in survivorship print material.

Toxoplasma gondii infections are common in humans and animals worldwide. Wild and domestic avian species are important in the epidemiology of T. gondii infections because felids prey on them and excrete millions of oocysts in the environment, disseminating the infection. Herbivorous birds are also excellent sentinels of environmental contamination with T. gondii oocysts because they feed on the ground. Toxoplasma gondii infections in birds of prey reflect infections in intermediate hosts. Humans can become infected by consuming undercooked avian tissues. Here, the authors reviewed prevalence, persistence of infection, clinical disease, epidemiology and genetic diversity of T. gondii strains isolated from turkeys, geese, ducks, ratites and avian species (excluding chickens) worldwide 2009–2020. Genetic diversity of 102 T. gondii DNA samples isolated worldwide is discussed. The role of migratory birds in dissemination of T. gondii infection is discussed.

Based on an accurate numerical solution of the kinetic equation using well-resolved spatial and velocity grids, the separation of rarefied gas flow in a microchannel with double rectangular bends is investigated over a wide range of Knudsen and Reynolds numbers. Rarefaction effects are found to play different roles in flow separation (vortex formation) at the concave and convex corners. Flow separations near the concave and convex corners are only observed for a Knudsen number up to $0.04$ and $0.01$, respectively. With further increase of the Knudsen number, flow separation disappears. Due to the velocity slip at the solid walls, the concave (convex) vortex is suppressed (enhanced), which leads to the late (early) onset of separation of rarefied gas flows with respect to the Reynolds number. The critical Reynolds numbers for the emergence of concave and convex vortices are found to be as low as $0.32\times 10^{-3}$ and $30.8$, respectively. The slip velocity near the concave (convex) corner is found to increase (decrease) when the Knudsen number increases. An adverse pressure gradient appears near the concave corner for all the examined Knudsen numbers, while for the convex corner it only occurs when the Knudsen number is less than $0.1$. Due to the secondary flow and adverse pressure gradient near the rectangular bends, the mass flow rate ratio between the bent and straight channels of the same length is a non-monotonic function of the Knudsen number. Our results clarify the diversified and often contradictory observations reported in the literature about flow rate enhancement and vortex formation in bent microchannels.

Toxoplasma gondii infections are common in humans and animals worldwide. Domestic free-range chickens (Gallus domesticus) are excellent sentinels of environmental contamination with T. gondii oocysts because they feed on the ground. Chickens can be easily infected with T. gondii; however, clinical toxoplasmosis is rare in these hosts. Chickens are comparatively inexpensive and thus are good sentinel animals for T. gondii infections on the farms. Here, the authors reviewed prevalence, the persistence of infection, clinical disease, epidemiology and genetic diversity of T. gondii strains isolated from chickens worldwide for the past decade. Data on phenotypic and molecular characteristics of 794 viable T. gondii strains from chickens are discussed, including new data on T. gondii isolates from chickens in Brazil. This paper will be of interest to biologists, epidemiologists, veterinarians and parasitologists.

Fluid motion has two well-known fundamental processes: the vector transverse process characterized by vorticity, and the scalar longitudinal process consisting of a sound mode and an entropy mode, characterized by dilatation and thermodynamic variables. The existing theories for the sound mode involve the multi-variable issue and its associated difficulty of source identification. In this paper, we define the source of sound inside the fluid by the objective causality inherent in dynamic equations relevant to a longitudinal process, which naturally favours the material time-rate operator $D/Dt$ rather than the local time-rate operator $\unicode[STIX]{x2202}/\unicode[STIX]{x2202}t$, and describes the sound mode by inhomogeneous advective wave equations. The sources of sound physical production inside the fluid are then examined at two levels. For the conventional formulation in terms of thermodynamic variables at the first level, we show that the universal kinematic source can be condensed to a scalar invariant of the surface deformation tensor. Further, in the formulation in terms of dilatation at the second level, we find that the sound mode in viscous and heat-conducting flow has sources from rich nonlinear couplings of vorticity, entropy and surface deformation, which cannot be disclosed at the first level. Preliminary numerical demonstration of the theoretical findings is made for two typical compressible flows, i.e. the interaction of two corotating Gaussian vortices and the unsteady type IV shock/shock interaction. The results obtained in this study provide a new theoretical basis for, and physical insight into, understanding various nonlinear longitudinal processes and the interactions therein.

To assess the role of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus, WTD) in the epidemiology of toxoplasmosis, we conducted a national survey of WTD across the USA for Toxoplasma gondii infection. To do this, we combined serology with parasite isolation to evaluate the prevalence and genetic diversity of T. gondii in this game species. From October 2012 to March 2019, serum and tissues were collected from 914 WTD across the USA. Serum samples were screened for antibodies to T. gondii, and then the tissues of seropositive WTD were bioassayed in mice. Antibodies were detected in 329 (36%) of 914 WTD tested by the modified agglutination test (positive reaction at 1:25 or higher). Viable T. gondii was isolated from the heart of 36 WTD from 11 states. Three of the 36 isolates were pathogenic but not highly virulent to outbred Swiss Webster mice and all 36 isolates could be propagated further in cell culture and were genotyped. For genotyping, DNA extracted from cell culture-derived tachyzoites was characterized by polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR-RFLP) using the genetic markers SAG1, SAG2, SAG3, BTUB, GRA6, c22-8, c29-2, L358, PK1 and Apico. Genotyping revealed seven ToxoDB PCR-RFLP genotypes, including 24 isolates for genotype #5 (haplogroup 12), four isolates for #2 (type III, haplogroup 3), three isolates for genotypes #1 (type II, haplogroup 2), two isolates for genotypes #3 (type II, haplogroup 2) and one isolate each for #39, #221 and #224. Genotype #5 was the most frequently isolated, accounting for 66.6% (24 of 36) of the isolates. Combining the 36 isolates from this study with previously reported 69 isolates from WTD, 15 genotypes have been identified. Among these, 50.4% (53/105) isolates belong to genotype #5. Our results indicate moderate genetic diversity of T. gondii in WTD. The results also indicate that undercooked venison should not be consumed by humans or fed to cats.

The Murchison Widefield Array (MWA) is an open access telescope dedicated to studying the low-frequency (80–300 MHz) southern sky. Since beginning operations in mid-2013, the MWA has opened a new observational window in the southern hemisphere enabling many science areas. The driving science objectives of the original design were to observe 21 cm radiation from the Epoch of Reionisation (EoR), explore the radio time domain, perform Galactic and extragalactic surveys, and monitor solar, heliospheric, and ionospheric phenomena. All together $60+$ programs recorded 20 000 h producing 146 papers to date. In 2016, the telescope underwent a major upgrade resulting in alternating compact and extended configurations. Other upgrades, including digital back-ends and a rapid-response triggering system, have been developed since the original array was commissioned. In this paper, we review the major results from the prior operation of the MWA and then discuss the new science paths enabled by the improved capabilities. We group these science opportunities by the four original science themes but also include ideas for directions outside these categories.

Feral swine are known reservoirs of various pathogens, including Toxoplasma gondii. Here, we report the first national survey of viable T. gondii in feral swine in the USA. We paired serological surveys with parasite isolation and bioassay to evaluate the prevalence and genetic diversity of these parasites. From 2012–2017, sera and tissues from 1517 feral swine across the USA were collected for the isolation of viable T. gondii. Serum samples were initially screened for antibodies to T. gondii, and then the tissues of seropositive feral swine were bioassayed in mice. Antibodies were detected in 27.7% of feral swine tested by the modified agglutination test (1:25 or higher). Antibody positive rates increased significantly with age, with 10.1% of juveniles, 16.0% of sub-adults and 38.4% of adults testing seropositive. Myocardium (50 g) from 232 seropositive feral swine was digested in pepsin and bioassayed in mice. Viable T. gondii was isolated from 78 feral swine from 21 states. Twelve of the 78 isolates were pathogenic to outbred Swiss Webster mice and 76 of the 78 isolates could be propagated further in cell culture and were genotyped. For genotyping, deoxyribonucleic acid extracted from cell culture-derived tachyzoites was characterized by polymerase chain reaction restriction fragment length polymorphism using the genetic markers SAG1, SAG2, SAG3, BTUB, GRA6, c22-8, c29-2, L358, PK1 and Apico. Genotyping revealed 15 ToxoDB genotypes, including 43 isolates for genotype #5 (haplogroup 12), 11 isolates for #24, four isolates for #2 (haplogroup 3), two isolates for each of genotypes #3 (haplogroup 2), #4 (haplogroup 12), #216, #221, #289 and #297 and one isolate for each of genotypes #1 (haplogroup 2), #39, #66, #260, #261 and #299. Genotype #5 was the most frequently isolated, accounted for 57% (43/76) of the isolates, followed by #24, accounted for 14% (11/76). Genotypes #260, #289, #297 and #299 are new types. Genotype #289 was highly virulent to mice and originated from feral swine collected in Louisiana on the same day at the same location. Genotype #216 was previously demonstrated to be highly virulent to mice. Our results indicate moderate genetic diversity of T. gondii in feral swine in the USA, with the genotype #5 (haplogroup 12) dominant in the continental USA, whereas genotype #24 (10/14) was dominant in Hawaii, suggesting different population structures of the parasites among the two distinct geographical locations.

Precise bone cut is fundamental in total knee arthroplasty. However, notching of anterior femoral is not uncommon in clinical practice. Reviewing the article, notching and its complication may reach up to 30% and 2.5%, and there is scanty study of notching on the femoral strength. We therefore conduct the finite element analysis to elucidate the effect of notching on femoral mechanical strength. The computerized tomography images were used as the basis to develop the knee model, which was assumed mainly to consist of cortical and cancellous bones. For the implant joint, Zimmer data was considered partly as the basis to develop the model. This study investigated the femoral improper cut effect on the surgery with a static standing condition. The results show that the anterior femoral cut should be undercut 2 mm to overcut 1 mm during the surgery, in order to prevent bone materials from yielding. The exposure of the cancellous bone may cause bone materials to yield when the femur overcut was 2 mm; the cancellous bone may load too much and result in a fracture when the undercut was 3 mm. The effect of undercut, which was rarely discussed, was particularly addressed in our study. Precise femoral cut is crucial for the longevity of total knee arthroplasty.

Thermosonic wire bonding is a common fabrication process for connecting devices in electronic packaging. However, when the free air ball (FAB) is compressed onto the I/O pad of the chip during bonding procedure, chip cracking may occur if the contact pressure is too large. This study proposes an effective simulation technique that can predict the wire ball geometry after bonding in an accurate range. The contact force obtained in the simulation can be used for possible die cracking behavior evaluation. The simulation in this study used the explicit time integration scheme to deal with the time marching problem, and the second-order precision arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian (ALE) algorithm was used to deal with the large deformation of the wire ball during the bonding process. In addition, the equilibrium smoothing algorithm in LS-DYNA can make the contact behavior and geometry of the bonding wire almost the same as the experiment, which can also significantly reduce the distortion of the mesh geometry after remeshing.

Planetary material in the atmospheres of white dwarfs is thought to be scattered inwards from outer planetary systems. Dusty emission in the infrared traces the accretion. As the scattering of many small asteroids is a stochastic process, variability in the infrared emission is predicted. We report a 3 year near-infrared (J, H and K) monitoring campaign of 34 dusty, polluted white dwarfs which aims to search for dust emission variability. We find all white dwarfs have consistent near-infrared fluxes, implying the excess emission is stable. This suggests tidal disruption events which lead to large variabilities are rare and quick (<1 year) and become stable within a few years. For WD 0408–041, the system that shows both increases and decreases in dust emission over 11 years, our K band data suggest a potential colour change associated with the dust emission that needs further confirmation.