Why do so many voters in African countries vote for minor ethnic parties instead of unifying into a powerful multi-ethnic opposition coalition? I present a model that demonstrates that as the incumbent devotes more resources to programmatic goods, which voters can access regardless of how they voted, the opportunity cost of voting for a sincerely preferred, but losing, candidate decreases. I provide experimental and cross-national observational evidence that voters are more likely to support a minor party as they perceive more or more valuable goods being distributed programmatically. Those who perceive poor distribution, or only clientelist distribution, instead vote strategically for a major opposition party. In general, support for minor parties increases along with positive outcomes and approval of the incumbent.

Stressful experiences affect biological stress systems, such as the hypothalamic–pituitary–adrenal (HPA) axis. Life stress can potentially alter regulation of the HPA axis and has been associated with poorer physical and mental health. Little, however, is known about the relative influence of stressors that are encountered at different developmental periods on acute stress reactions in adulthood. In this study, we explored three models of the influence of stress exposure on cortisol reactivity to a modified version of the Trier Social Stress Test (TSST) by leveraging 37 years of longitudinal data in a high-risk birth cohort (N = 112). The cumulative stress model suggests that accumulated stress across the lifespan leads to dysregulated reactivity, whereas the biological embedding model implicates early childhood as a critical period. The sensitization model assumes that dysregulation should only occur when stress is high in both early childhood and concurrently. All of the models predicted altered reactivity, but do not anticipate its exact form. We found support for both cumulative and biological embedding effects. However, when pitted against each other, early life stress predicted more blunted cortisol responses at age 37 over and above cumulative life stress. Additional analyses revealed that stress exposure in middle childhood also predicted more blunted cortisol reactivity.

The design of field experiments makes them inappropriate for testing many common political theories. These theories propose that certain factors—for example, income or information—affect how individuals make choices. To test these theories, researchers typically investigate the correlation between the relevant factor and individuals’ choices, holding other factors constant. Field experiments, in contrast, allow multiple factors to vary at once: they create real-world disruption and do not control how actors behave in response. Subjects’ choices will be affected by the experimental treatment as well as by other changes that occur as the larger system reacts. It will be difficult to isolate the effect of any one factor, particularly without a good preexisting model of the system and how it is likely to respond. If a field experiment will not tell us what we need to know, the benefit of the study cannot outweigh harm, and it also will be unethical.

This randomized controlled trial investigated the efficacy of Attachment and Biobehavioral Catch-up (ABC; Dozier, Bick, & Bernard, 2011) in reducing disrupted parenting behavior (affective communication errors, role/boundary confusion, fearful/disoriented, intrusive/negativity, and withdrawal) and its association with disorganized attachment. Participants were 105 mother–child dyads randomized to receive either ABC or a control intervention (a 10-session home-visiting intervention focused on improving children's cognitive abilities, gross and fine motor abilities, and language development). At the time of study enrollment, mothers were approximately 26.7 years old (SD = 7.8) and predominantly Black or African American (73.9%). At the first follow-up visit, children were approximately 20.7 months old (SD = 6.3) and most were identified as Black or African American (61.9%). Fifty-two percent of children were male (n = 55). Assessments of disrupted parenting behavior and child attachment quality were assessed approximately 7 months postintervention (SD = 5.8). A one-way analysis of variance revealed that parents who received ABC demonstrated lower levels of parental withdrawal than parents who received the control condition. A structural equation model revealed a significant indirect effect of intervention group on attachment quality through lower levels of parental withdrawal. Results add to the efficacy of the ABC intervention and identified parental withdrawal as a mediator of change.

In this article, we describe the results of the second phase of a randomized controlled trial of Minding the Baby (MTB), an interdisciplinary reflective parenting intervention for infants and their families. Young first-time mothers living in underserved, poor, urban communities received intensive home visiting services from a nurse and social worker team for 27 months, from pregnancy to the child's second birthday. Results indicate that MTB mothers' levels of reflective functioning was more likely to increase over the course of the intervention than were those of control group mothers. Likewise, infants in the MTB group were significantly more likely to be securely attached, and significantly less likely to be disorganized, than infants in the control group. We discuss our findings in terms of their contribution to understanding the impacts and import of intensive intervention with vulnerable families during the earliest stages of parenthood in preventing the intergenerational transmission of disrupted relationships and insecure attachment.

Previous research suggests that the experience of abuse and neglect in childhood has negative implications for physical health in adulthood. Using data from the Minnesota Longitudinal Study of Risk and Adaptation (N = 115), the present research examined the predictive significance of childhood physical abuse, sexual abuse, and physical/cognitive neglect for multilevel assessments of physical health at midlife (age 37–39 years), including biomarkers of cardiometabolic risk, self-reports of quality of health, and a number of health problems. Analyses revealed that childhood physical/cognitive neglect, but not physical or sexual abuse, predicted all three health outcomes in middle adulthood, even when controlling for demographic risk factors and adult health maintenance behaviors. We discuss possible explanations for the unique significance of neglect in this study and suggest future research that could clarify previous findings regarding the differential impact of different types of abuse and neglect on adult health.

The present report used data from the Minnesota Longitudinal Study of Risk and Adaptation to investigate the factor structure and childhood abuse and/or neglect related antecedents of adults’ attachment states of mind in a high-risk sample. Adult Attachment Interviews (AAIs) were collected when participants were age 26 years (N = 164) and Current Relationship Interviews (CRIs) were collected from participants (N = 116) and their romantic partners when target participants were between ages 20 and 28 years (M = 25.3 years). For both the AAI and the CRI, exploratory factor analyses revealed that (a) attachment state of mind scales loaded on two weakly correlated dimensions reflecting dismissing and preoccupied states of mind and (b) ratings of unresolved discourse loaded on the same factor as indicators of preoccupied states of mind. Experiencing any subtype of abuse and/or neglect, especially during multiple developmental periods, and experiencing multiple subtypes of abuse and/or neglect during childhood were associated with risk for preoccupied (but not dismissing) AAI states of mind regarding childhood relationships with caregivers. Analyses focused on the particular subtypes, and perpetrators indicated that the predictive significance of childhood abuse/neglect for adult's AAI preoccupied states of mind was specific to experiences of abuse (but not neglect) perpetrated by primary caregivers. In addition, experiencing chronic or multiple subtypes of childhood abuse and/or neglect increased risk for dismissing (but not preoccupied) CRI states of mind regarding adult romantic partners.

We assessed the ability of climatic, environmental, and anthropogenic variables to predict areas of high-risk for plant invasion and consider the relative importance and contribution of these predictor variables by considering two spatial scales in a region of rapidly changing climate. We created predictive distribution models, using Maxent, for three highly invasive plant species (Canada thistle, white sweetclover, and reed canarygrass) in Alaska at both a regional scale and a local scale. Regional scale models encompassed southern coastal Alaska and were developed from topographic and climatic data at a 2 km (1.2 mi) spatial resolution. Models were applied to future climate (2030). Local scale models were spatially nested within the regional area; these models incorporated physiographic and anthropogenic variables at a 30 m (98.4 ft) resolution. Regional and local models performed well (AUC values > 0.7), with the exception of one species at each spatial scale. Regional models predict an increase in area of suitable habitat for all species by 2030 with a general shift to higher elevation areas; however, the distribution of each species was driven by different climate and topographical variables. In contrast local models indicate that distance to right-of-ways and elevation are associated with habitat suitability for all three species at this spatial level. Combining results from regional models, capturing long-term distribution, and local models, capturing near-term establishment and distribution, offers a new and effective tool for highlighting at-risk areas and provides insight on how variables acting at different scales contribute to suitability predictions. The combinations also provides easy comparison, highlighting agreement between the two scales, where long-term distribution factors predict suitability while near-term do not and vice versa.

The development of adult personality disorder symptoms, including transactional processes of relationship representational and behavioral experience from infancy to early adolescence, was examined using longitudinal data from a risk sample (N = 162). Significant preliminary correlations were found between early caregiving experience and adult personality disorder symptoms and between representational and behavioral indices across time and adult symptomatology. Significant correlations were also found among diverse representational assessments (e.g., interview, drawing, and projective narrative) and between concurrent representational and observational measures of relationship functioning. Path models were analyzed to investigate the combined relations of caregiving experience in infancy; relationship representation and experience in early childhood, middle childhood, and early adolescence; and personality disorder symptoms in adulthood. The hypothesized model representing interactive contributions of representational and behavioral experience represented the data significantly better than competing models representing noninteractive contributions. Representational and behavioral indicators mediated the link between early caregiving quality and personality disorder symptoms. The findings extend previous studies of normative development and support an organizational developmental view that early relationship experiences contribute to socioemotional maladaptation as well as adaptation through the progressive transaction of mutually informing expectations and experience.

The strong support that African presidents retain among voters of their own ethnicity, despite clear evidence of shirking and corruption, has prompted numerous empirical investigations into whether an incumbent's ethnicity or performance is more important to African voters. The model of vote choice underlying almost all of these studies is additive and implies that either coethnicity or good performance can increase a candidate's vote share. However, there is little theoretical justification for such a model. In the dominant theory of ethnic voting in Africa, coethnicity is a signal of better outcomes, indicating that ethnicity and performance are not separate considerations. Using an experiment that is designed to determine how Ugandan voters make choices, the author shows that the effects of coethnicity and good performance interact: neither attribute increases support for a candidate in the absence of the other. Though previous analyses indicate that, all else being equal, voters always prefer coethnics, this study demonstrates that coethnics only have an advantage when they are not shirkers. Additionally, though previous studies indicate that voters always prefer good performers, this analysis shows that voters are indifferent to the performance of non-coethnic candidates. The article provides evidence that this pattern is in fact a result of voters' beliefs that they will only receive future goods from coethnics, making a demonstrated ability to provide such goods relevant for the electability of coethnic candidates, but not for non-coethnics. Since a large number of African voters do not share the ethnicity of their incumbent, this finding has troubling implications for accountability of African leaders.

This study examined the formation and quality of attachment of 65 postinstitutionalized (PI) toddlers with their parents at 1–3 and 7–9 months postadoption compared to 52 nonadopted (NA) children. The formation of attachment relationships of PI children with adoptive parents occurred relatively quickly. Children exposed to greater preadoption adversity took longer to form an attachment to their adoptive parents, although by 7–9 months postadoption, nearly all (90%) of the children achieved the highest level on an attachment formation rating scale. PI children did not differ from NA children in attachment security, based either on the Attachment Q-Sort or Strange Situation categorical scoring. However, the PI children were more likely to be disorganized in their attachment patterns. Preadoption adversity was related to lower Q-sort security scores especially at the initial assessment 1–3 months postadoption. The results indicated that attachment formation and attachment quality in PI children are differentiable constructs with different precursors.

Evidence for the intergenerational transmission of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is documented in the literature, although the underlying mechanisms are poorly understood. Attachment theory provides a framework for elucidating the ways in which maternal PTSD may increase offspring PTSD vulnerability. The current study utilized two independent prospective data sets to test the hypotheses that (a) maternal PTSD increases the probability of developing an insecure mother–infant attachment relationship and (b) an insecure mother–infant attachment relationship increases the risk of developing PTSD following trauma exposure in later life. In the first study of urban, primarily low-income ethnic/racial minority mothers and infants (N = 45 dyads), elevated maternal PTSD symptoms at 6 months were associated with increased risk for an insecure, particularly disorganized, mother–infant attachment relationship at 13 months. In the second birth cohort of urban, low-income mothers and children (N = 96 dyads), insecure (avoidant or resistant) attachment in infancy was associated in a dose–response manner with increased lifetime risk for a diagnosis of PTSD by adolescence. A history of disorganized attachment in infancy predicted severity of PTSD symptoms, including reexperiencing, avoidance, hyperarousal, and total symptoms, at 17.5 years. In both studies, associations between attachment and PTSD were not attributable to numerous co-occurring risk factors. The findings suggest that promoting positive mother–child relationships in early development, particularly in populations at high risk for trauma exposure, may reduce the incidence of PTSD.

The antecedents and developmental course of borderline personality disorder symptoms were examined prospectively from infancy to adulthood using longitudinal data from a risk sample (N = 162). Borderline personality disorder symptom counts were derived from the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM Disorders diagnostic interview at age 28 years. Correlational analyses confirmed expected relations between borderline symptoms and contemporary adult disturbance (e.g., self-injurious behavior, dissociative symptoms, drug use, relational violence) as well as maltreatment history. Antecedent correlational and regression analyses revealed significant links between borderline symptoms in adulthood and endogenous (i.e., temperament) and environmental (e.g., attachment disorganization, parental hostility) history in early childhood and disturbance across domains of child functioning (e.g., attention, emotion, behavior, relationship, self-representation) in middle childhood/early adolescence. Process analyses revealed a significant mediating effect of self-representation on the relation between attachment disorganization on borderline symptoms. The findings are discussed within a developmental psychopathology framework in which disturbance in self-processes is constructed through successive transactions between the individual and environment.

Resilience, the development of competence despite severe or pervasive adversity, is examined using data from a longitudinal study of high-risk children and families. The study is guided by an organizationaldevelopmental perspective. Resilience is conceived not as a childhood given, but as a capacity that develops over time in the context of person-environment interactions. Factors related to resilience in our study are examined in terms of this transactional process. From our studies, we have found emotionally responsive caregiving to mediate the effects of high-risk environments and to promote positive change for children who have experienced poverty, family stress, and maltreatment. The implications of these findings are discussed.

Continuity in individual patterns of adaptation and maladaptation was examined across the years from infancy to preadolescence. Forty-seven preadolescent subjects from a 15-year longitudinal study of children at risk for developmental problems participated. Subjects were intensively observed in a 4-week summer daycamp at age 10. Children were then rated on scales of agency, social skill, dependency, positive and negative affect, and ranked on emotional health. In addition, Q-sorts were performed to obtain an overall description of the child's personality, and observations were made of child-adult interactions. Significant differences were found between secure and insecure attachment groups on molar measures of adaptation including social competence and ego resiliency. Children with anxious histories were also rated higher on dependency and were found to be more frequently involved in interactions with adults than children with secure histories. In addition, differences were found in the patterns of adaptation exhibited by children with the two types of anxious attachment history. Children with resistant histories were found to be more often the recipients of adult-initiated contact, specifically support and nurturance, than were children with avoidant attachment histories. Comparison of overall personality style through correlations of composite counselor Q-sorts identified children with secure and resistant attachment histories as most like other children with the same attachment history. Results for avoidant children did not achieve significance. Patterns of contemporary child behavior revealed through counselor Q-sorts were also found to be related to theoretically derived predictions from patterns observed in infancy.