This paper presents a framework to support decision-making in aircraft conceptual design optimisation under uncertainty. Emphasis is given to graphical visualisation methods capable of providing holistic yet intuitive relationships between design, objectives, feasibility and uncertainty spaces. Two concepts are introduced to allow interactive exploration of the effects of (1) target probability of constraint satisfaction (price of feasibility robustness) and (2) uncertainty reduction through increased state-of-knowledge (cost of uncertainty) on design and objective spaces. These processes are tailored to handle multi-objective optimisation problems and leverage visualisation techniques for dynamic inter-space mapping. An information reuse strategy is presented to enable obtaining multiple robust Pareto sets at an affordable computational cost. A case study demonstrates how the presented framework addresses some of the challenges and opportunities regarding the adoption of Uncertainty-based Multidisciplinary Design Optimisation (UMDO) in the aerospace industry, such as design margins policy, systematic and conscious definition of target robustness and uncertainty reduction experiments selection and prioritisation.

A first attempt is made to use recently developed, non-conventional Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models with Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), Radial Basis Function (RBF) and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Interference System (ANFIS) architectures to predict the fuel flow rate of a commercial aircraft using real data obtained from Flight Data Records (FDRs) of the cruise, climb and descent phases. The training of the architectures with a single hidden layer is performed by utilising the Delta-Bar-Delta (DBD), Conjugate Gradient (CG) and Quickprop (QP) algorithms. The optimum network topologies are sought by varying the number of processing elements in the hidden layer of the networks using a trial-and-error method. An evaluation of the approximate fuel intake values against the ideal fuel intake data from the FDRs indicates a good fit for all three ANN models. Thus, more accurate fuel intake estimations can be obtained by applying the RBF-ANN model during the climb and descent flight stages, whereas the MLP-ANN model is more effective for the cruise phase. The best accuracy obtained in terms of the linear correlation coefficient is 0.99988, 0.91946 and 0.95252 for the climb, cruise and descent phase, respectively.

In this paper, recent developments in quasi-3D aerodynamic methods are presented. At their core, these methods are based on the lifting-line theory and vortex lattice method, but with a relaxed set of hypotheses, while also considering the effect of viscosity (to a certain degree) by introducing a strong non-linear coupling with two-dimensional viscous aerofoil aerodynamics. These methods can provide more accurate results compared with their inviscid classical counterparts and have an extended range of applicability with respect to the lifting surface geometry. Verification results are presented for both steady-state and unsteady flows, as well as case studies related to their integration into aerodynamic shape optimisation tools. The good accuracy achieved using relatively low computational time makes such quasi-3D methods a solid choice for conducting conceptual-level design and optimisation of lifting surfaces.

This paper presents an aeromechanics investigation of tiltrotor aircraft through the conversion regime of flight. The effects of the rotors-on-wing, rotors-on-empennage and wing-on-empennage interactions were investigated singularly and collectively to assess their impacts on trim behaviour, performance and conversion boundaries. The rotors-on-wing download was found to be dominant in the prediction of hover and low-speed flight performance and had a degrading effect overall. The fuselage pitch attitude and stick position were found to be significantly affected by the empennage interaction cases throughout the conversion domain. The large flap/flaperon settings used to alleviate the rotor download contributed considerably to the low-speed trim behaviour. The conversion boundaries were found to be insensitive to all the interaction cases, though the min-speed boundary was reduced marginally due to the wing-on-empennage interaction. The results showed that the combined interactions were important factors to accurately predict the trim behaviour and aircraft performance throughout the conversion corridor.

This paper is one of a series addressing the need for simple, yet accurate, methods for the estimation of cruise fuel burn and other important aircraft performance parameters. Here, a previously published, constant Reynolds number model for turbofan-powered, civil transport aircraft is extended to include Reynolds number effects. Provided the variation of temperature with pressure is known, the method is applicable to flight in any atmospheric conditions. For a given aircraft, cruising in a given atmosphere, there is a single Mach number and Flight Level pair, at which the fuel burn per unit distance travelled through the air has an absolute minimum value. Both these quantities depend upon the Reynolds number, which, in turn, depends upon the aircraft weight and the atmospheric vertical temperature profile. Simple, explicit expressions are developed for all parameters at the optimum condition. These are shown to be in close agreement with numerical solutions of the governing equations. It is found that typical operational mass and temperature profile variations can change cruise fuel burn rate by several percent. In the International Standard Atmosphere, when the speed and altitude deviate from their optimum values, the fuel burn penalty is reduced slightly relative to the constant Reynolds number case. By way of example, the method is used to estimate the minimum fuel, speed-versus-height trajectory for cruise in a realistic atmosphere.

For each aircraft, cruise fuel burn is found to be governed by six independent parameters. All are constants. Two are simple, involving only size and weight, whereas four are complex and must be determined by either theoretical, or empirical, means. The estimation of these quantities will be considered in Part 2.

In this paper, the accuracy and practical capabilities of three different reduced-order models (ROMs) are explored: an enhanced implicit condensation and expansion (EnICE) model, a finite element beam model, and a finite volume beam model are compared for their capability to accurately predict the nonlinear structural response of geometrically nonlinear built-up wing structures. This work briefly outlines the different order reduction methods, highlighting the associated assumptions and computational effort. The ROMs are then used to calculate the wing deflection for different representative load cases and these results are compared with the global finite element model (GFEM) predictions when possible. Overall, the ROMs are found to be able to capture the nonlinear GFEM behaviour accurately, but differences are noticed at very large displacements and rotations due to local geometrical effects.

There are significant variations in the fuel consumption of aircraft during the descent phase of a flight. This paper uses aircraft flight data measurements to develop an improved understanding of these variations. A model of the aircraft engines is developed that is matched to flight data and shown to reproduce the time history of engine parameters. This model is used to determine the overall engine efficiency at each point during a descent. This enables an energy breakdown to be completed, in terms of mechanical energy from fuel, gravitational potential energy and kinetic energy. During descent, the aircraft engines operate at low overall pressure ratios corresponding to low fuel flow rates and low overall efficiencies. On average, the engine overall efficiency during descent is one-third of cruise efficiency. The airframe aerodynamic performance is deteriorated during descent with an average lift-to-drag ratio that is 87% of the average value at cruise. There are also large variations in air-track efficiency, and for the flights analysed the great circle descent distance was found to be 85% of the average descent air distance. To minimise fuel burn, flights should cruise as far as possible before starting descent and follow a trajectory with the shortest possible air distance. The descent air speed should be set to maximise the aircraft lift-to-drag ratio. Such descents could save up to 0.5% of the total aircraft mass in fuel.

The full-wing solar-powered UAV has a large aspect ratio, special configuration, and excellent aerodynamic performance. This UAV converts solar energy into electrical energy for level flight and storage to improve endurance performance. The UAV only uses a differential throttle for lateral control, and the insufficient control capability during crosswind landing results in a large lateral distance bias and leads to multiple landing failures. This paper analyzes 11 landing failures and finds that a large lateral distance bias at the beginning of the approach and the coupling of base and differential throttle control is the main reason for multiple landing failures. To improve the landing performance, a heading angle-based vector field (VF) method is applied to the straight-line and orbit paths following and two novel 3D Dubins landing paths are proposed to reduce the initial lateral control bias. The results show that the straight-line path simulation exhibits similar phenomenon with the practical failure; the single helical path has the highest lateral control accuracy; the left-arc to left-arc (L-L) path avoids the saturation of the differential throttle; and both paths effectively improve the probability of successful landing.

The International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) audits its Member States for safety oversight and monitors its Effective Implementation (EI). The global average EI was 68.83% in 2019, with 46% audited Member States achieving 75% EI (2022 target); however, an ICAO (2016 – 2018) audit highlighted six Annex 13 non-compliance issues. One issue was that more than 60% of Member States do not have a comprehensive and detailed investigator training program, contributing to many shortcomings that include a lack of essential and volatile evidence preservation, investigation management, investigation reporting and/or safety recommendations. This paper proposes an Expert System that captures knowledge in aircraft accident investigation generated over many years and allows aircraft investigators to share, access and interrogate accumulated knowledge to support the aircraft accident investigation process. The Expert System will improve the evidence analysing timeline, conclusion consistency and accuracy and support the on-the-job “field” training of evidence analysis through self-discovery.

This paper presents a new flight trajectory optimisation method, based on genetic algorithms, where the selected optimisation criterion is the minimisation of the total cost. The candidate flight trajectories evaluated in the optimisation process are defined as flight plans with two components: a lateral flight plan (the set of geographic points that define the flight trajectory track segments) and a vertical flight plan (the set of data that define the altitude and speed profiles, as well as the points where the altitude and/or speed changes occur). The lateral components of the candidate flight plans are constructed by selecting a set of adjacent nodes from a routing grid. The routing grid nodes are generated based on the orthodromic route between the flight trajectory’s initial and final points, a selected maximum lateral deviation from the orthodromic route and a selected grid node step size along and across the orthodromic route. Two strategies are investigated to handle invalid flight plans (relative to the aircraft’s flight envelope) and to compute their flight performance parameters. A first strategy is to assign a large penalty total cost to invalid flight profiles. The second strategy is to adjust the invalid flight plan parameters (altitude and/or speed) to the nearest limit of the flight envelope, with priority being given to maintaining the planned altitude. The tests performed in this study show that the second strategy is computationally expensive (requiring more than twice the execution time relative to the first strategy) and yields less optimal solutions. The performance of the optimal profiles identified by the proposed optimisation method, using the two strategies regarding invalid flight profile performance evaluation, were compared with the performance data of a reference flight profile, using identical input data: initial aircraft weight, initial and final aircraft geographic positions, altitudes and speed, cost index, and atmospheric data. The initial and final aircraft geographic positions, and the reference flight profile data, were retrieved from the FlightAware web site. This data corresponds to a real flight performed with the aircraft model used in this study. Tests were performed for six Cost Index values. Given the randomness of the genetic algorithms, the convergence to a global optimal solution is not guaranteed (the solution may be non-optimal or a local optima). For a better evaluation of the performance of the proposed method, ten test runs were performed for each Cost Index value. The total cost reduction for the optimal flight plans obtained using the proposed method, relative to the reference flight plan, was between 0.822% and 3.042% for the cases when the invalid flight profiles were corrected, and between 1.598% and 3.97% for the cases where the invalid profiles were assigned a penalty total cost.

A simple yet physically comprehensive and accurate method for the estimation of the cruise fuel burn rate of turbofan powered transport aircraft operating in a general atmosphere was developed in part 1. The method is built on previously published work showing that suitable normalisation reduces the governing relations to a set of near-universal curves. However, to apply the method to a specific aircraft, values must be assigned to six independent parameters and the more accurate these values are the more accurate the estimates will be. Unfortunately, some of these parameters rarely appear in the public domain. Consequently, a scheme for their estimation is developed herein using basic aerodynamic theory and data correlations. In addition, the basic method is extended to provide estimates for cruise lift-to-drag ratio, engine thrust and engine overall efficiency. This step requires the introduction of two more independent parameters, increasing the total number from six to eight. An error estimate and sensitivity analysis indicates that, in the aircraft’s normal operating range and using the present results, estimates of fuel burn rate are expected to be in error by no more than 5% in the majority of cases. Initial estimates of the characteristic parameters have been generated for 53 aircraft types and engine combinations and a table is provided.

This study investigates a new aircraft flight trajectory optimisation method, derived from the Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II method used for multi-objective optimisations. The new method determines, in parallel, a set of optimal flight plan solutions for a flight. Each solution is optimal (requires minimum fuel) for a Required Time of Arrival constraint from a set of candidate time constraints selected for the final waypoint of the flight section under optimisation. The set of candidate time constraints is chosen so that their bounds are contiguous, i.e. they completely cover a selected time domain. The proposed flight trajectory optimisation method may be applied in future operational paradigms, such as Trajectory-Based Operations/free flight, where aircraft do not need to follow predetermined routes. The intended application of the proposed method is to support Decision Makers in the planning phase when there is a time constraint or a preferred crossing time at the final point of the flight section under optimisation. The Decision Makers can select, from the set of optimal flight plans, the one that best fits their criteria (minimum fuel burn or observes a selected time constraint). If the Air Traffic Management system rejects the flight plan, then they can choose the next best solution from the set without having to perform another optimisation. The method applies for optimisations performed on lateral and/or vertical flight plan components. Seven proposed method variants were evaluated, and ten test runs were performed for each variant. For five variants, the worst results yielded a fuel burn less than 90kg (0.14%) over the ‘global’ optimum. The worst variant yielded a maximum of 321kg (0.56%) over the ‘global’ optimum.

“Urban air vehicles” have been hailed as the next revolution in aviation. Prototypes of various sizes have been flown to demonstrate basic flight (hover and climb), but in most cases there is no demonstration of full flight capability, for example conversion from vertical to level flight (conversion corridor). There are proposals for vehicles in a wide range of scales: from drones specifically designed to deliver goods, to full size vehicles for manned transportation. Most of the concepts proposed include full electric propulsion, multiple (often convertible) rotors (ducted or un-ducted, counter-rotating), and widespread use of composite materials. Start-up companies are seeking funding with high-profile demonstrations in front of the media, but many unresolved technical problems are not been solved. Large aerospace companies have joined the fray. These initiatives are fuelling expectations that achieving the next milestone is within easy reach. This paper aims to fill some gaps in understanding and curb optimism. It takes a holistic view in order to establish a scientific basis for design, manufacturing, operations.

The addition of wedge-like fairings onto the side of missiles and space launch vehicles, to shield devices such as cameras and reaction jet nozzles, creates additional drag, particularly when in supersonic and hypersonic freestream flow. An experimental and computational study was performed to obtain aerodynamic data on simple representative configurations to test the accuracy of simple theories for the drag increment due to these types of fairings. A semi-empirical method to estimate drag on wedge-shaped projections is presented, which may be used by missile designers to provide predictions of the drag increment due to wedge-like fairings. The method is shown to be valid where the wedge width is much smaller than body diameter, and across the Mach number range 4–8.2 but is likely to be valid for higher Mach numbers. Drag coefficient is found to increase with increasing wedge angle and reducing wedge slenderness, although increasing slenderness tends to increase skin friction drag.

Stratospheric airships are promising aircraft, usually designed as a non-rigid airship. As an essential part of the non-rigid airship, the envelope plays a significant role in maintaining its shape and bearing the external force load. Generally, the envelope material of a flexible airship consists of plain-weave fabric, composed of warp and weft fibre yarn. At present, biaxial tensile experiments are the primary method used to study the stress–strain characteristics of such flexible airship materials. In this work, biaxial tensile testing of UN-5100 material was carried out. The strain on the material under unusual stress and the stress ratio were obtained using Digital Image Correlation (DIC) technology. Also, the stress–strain curve was corrected by polynomial fitting. The slope of the stress–strain curve at different points, the Membrane Structures Association of Japan (MSAJ) standard and the Radial Basis Function (RBF) model were compared to identify the stress–strain characteristics of the materials. Some conclusions on the mechanical properties of the flexible airship material can be drawn and will play a significant role in the design of such envelopes.

A practical method to evaluate quantitatively the uniformity of fuel/air mixing is essential for research and development of advanced low-emission combustion systems. Typically, this is characterised by measuring an unmixedness parameter or a uniformity index. An alternative approach, based on the fuel/air equivalence ratio distribution, is proposed and demonstrated in a simple methane/air venturi mixer. This approach has two main advantages: it is correlated with the fuel/air mixture combustion temperature, and the maximum temperature variation caused by fuel/air non-uniformity can be estimated. Because of these, it can be used as a criterion to check fuel/air mixing quality, or as a target for fuel/air mixer design with acceptable maximum temperature variation. For the situations where the fuel/air distribution non-uniqueness issue becomes important for fuel/air mixing check or mixer design, an additional statistical supplementary criterion should also be used.

With the development of China’s economy, China’s aviation market has expanded, and related industries have also developed rapidly. For the long-term development of the industry, many countries and enterprises began to make demand forecasts with different levels for the product market. The same is true for China’s civil aircraft-related industries. There are a variety of predictive models, but not all of them are appropriate for the prediction of civil aircraft market demand. This paper introduces a variety of modelling methods for forecasting models, including time series forecasting models and causal analysis forecasting models. The contribution of our work is the adoption of a new coefficient determination method to establish a variable-weight combination forecasting model, which greatly improves the forecasting accuracy. In addition, we also propose a new and more stable prediction model, the chain prediction model. Simulation prediction is carried out for each model in this work. Through the analysis and comparison of the prediction results, we conclude that the prediction effects of the variable weight combination prediction model and the chain prediction model are superior to those of other single prediction models. The chain prediction model in particular has better performance in medium- and long-term prediction, compared with the other prediction models. Finally, the model is applied to predict the demand of Chinese civil aircraft in the next 20 years, which confirms that the Chinese civil aircraft market will expand in the future.