A general multi-type population model is considered, where individuals live and reproduce according to their age and type, but also under the influence of the size and composition of the entire population. We describe the dynamics of the population as a measure-valued process and obtain its asymptotics as the population grows with the environmental carrying capacity. Thus, a deterministic approximation is given, in the form of a law of large numbers, as well as a central limit theorem. This general framework is then adapted to model sexual reproduction, with a special section on serial monogamic mating systems.

It is well-known that in a small Pólya urn, i.e., an urn where the second largest real part of an eigenvalue is at most half the largest eigenvalue, the distribution of the numbers of balls of different colours in the urn is asymptotically normal under weak additional conditions. We consider the balanced case, and then give asymptotics of the mean and the covariance matrix, showing that after appropriate normalization, the mean and covariance matrix converge to the mean and covariance matrix of the limiting normal distribution.

An important problem in modeling networks is how to generate a randomly sampled graph with given degrees. A popular model is the configuration model, a network with assigned degrees and random connections. The erased configuration model is obtained when self-loops and multiple edges in the configuration model are removed. We prove an upper bound for the number of such erased edges for regularly-varying degree distributions with infinite variance, and use this result to prove central limit theorems for Pearson’s correlation coefficient and the clustering coefficient in the erased configuration model. Our results explain the structural correlations in the erased configuration model and show that removing edges leads to different scaling of the clustering coefficient. We prove that for the rank-1 inhomogeneous random graph, another null model that creates scale-free simple networks, the results for Pearson’s correlation coefficient as well as for the clustering coefficient are similar to the results for the erased configuration model.

Consider a Pólya urn with balls of several colours, where balls are drawn sequentially and each drawn ball is immediately replaced together with a fixed number of balls of the same colour. It is well known that the proportions of balls of the different colours converge in distribution to a Dirichlet distribution. We show that the rate of convergence is $\Theta(1/n)$ in the minimal $L_p$ metric for any $p\in[1,\infty]$ , extending a result by Goldstein and Reinert; we further show the same rate for the Lévy distance, while the rate for the Kolmogorov distance depends on the parameters, i.e. on the initial composition of the urn. The method used here differs from the one used by Goldstein and Reinert, and uses direct calculations based on the known exact distributions.

In this paper, we show that the numbers of t-stack sortable n-permutations with k − 1 descents satisfy central and local limit theorems for t = 1, 2, n − 1 and n − 2. This result, in particular, gives an affirmative answer to Shapiro's question about the asymptotic normality of the Narayana numbers.

We consider autocorrelation functions for supersymmetric quantum mechanical systems (consisting of a fermion and a boson) confined in trigonometric Pöschl–Teller partner potentials. We study the limit of rescaled autocorrelation functions (at random time) as the localization of the initial state goes to infinity. The limiting distribution can be described using pairs of Jacobi theta functions on a suitably defined homogeneous space, as a corollary of the work of Cellarosi and Marklof. A construction by Contreras-Astorga and Fernández provides large classes of Pöschl-Teller partner potentials to which our analysis applies.

Let $a_1$ , $a_2$ , and $a_3$ be distinct reduced residues modulo q satisfying the congruences $a_1^2 \equiv a_2^2 \equiv a_3^2 \ (\mathrm{mod}\ q)$ . We conditionally derive an asymptotic formula, with an error term that has a power savings in q, for the logarithmic density of the set of real numbers x for which $\pi (x;q,a_1)> \pi (x;q,a_2) > \pi (x;q,a_3)$ . The relationship among the $a_i$ allows us to normalize the error terms for the $\pi (x;q,a_i)$ in an atypical way that creates mutual independence among their distributions, and also allows for a proof technique that uses only elementary tools from probability.

We obtain large and moderate deviation estimates for both sequential and random compositions of intermittent maps. We also address the question of whether or not centering is necessary for the quenched central limit theorems obtained by Nicol, Török and Vaienti [Central limit theorems for sequential and random intermittent dynamical systems. Ergod. Th. & Dynam. Sys.38(3) (2018), 1127–1153] for random dynamical systems comprising intermittent maps. Using recent work of Abdelkader and Aimino [On the quenched central limit theorem for random dynamical systems. J. Phys. A 49(24) (2016), 244002] and Hella and Stenlund [Quenched normal approximation for random sequences of transformations. J. Stat. Phys.178(1) (2020), 1–37] we extend the results of Nicol, Török and Vaienti on quenched central limit theorems for centered observables over random compositions of intermittent maps: first by enlarging the parameter range over which the quenched central limit theorem holds; and second by showing that the variance in the quenched central limit theorem is almost surely constant (and the same as the variance of the annealed central limit theorem) and that centering is needed to obtain this quenched central limit theorem.

We prove an almost sure central limit theorem on the Poisson space, which is perfectly tailored for stabilizing functionals arising in stochastic geometry. As a consequence, we provide almost sure central limit theorems for (i) the total edge length of the k-nearest neighbors random graph, (ii) the clique count in random geometric graphs, and (iii) the volume of the set approximation via the Poisson–Voronoi tessellation.

We study a stationary Gibbs particle process with deterministically bounded particles on Euclidean space defined in terms of an activity parameter and non-negative interaction potentials of finite range. Using disagreement percolation, we prove exponential decay of the correlation functions, provided a dominating Boolean model is subcritical. We also prove this property for the weighted moments of a U-statistic of the process. Under the assumption of a suitable lower bound on the variance, this implies a central limit theorem for such U-statistics of the Gibbs particle process. A by-product of our approach is a new uniqueness result for Gibbs particle processes.

We study the long-term behaviour of a random walker embedded in a growing sequence of graphs. We define a (generally non-Markovian) real-valued stochastic process, called the knowledge process, that represents the ratio between the number of vertices already visited by the walker and the current size of the graph. We mainly focus on the case where the underlying graph sequence is the growing sequence of complete graphs.

We consider the generalization of the Pólya urn scheme with possibly infinitely many colors, as introduced in [37], [4], [5], and [6]. For countably many colors, we prove almost sure convergence of the urn configuration under the uniform ergodicity assumption on the associated Markov chain. The proof uses a stochastic coupling of the sequence of chosen colors with a branching Markov chain on a weighted random recursive tree as described in [6], [31], and [26]. Using this coupling we estimate the covariance between any two selected colors. In particular, we re-prove the limit theorem for the classical urn models with finitely many colors.

We introduce a class of non-uniform random recursive trees grown with an attachment preference for young age. Via the Chen–Stein method of Poisson approximation, we find that the outdegree of a node is characterized in the limit by ‘perturbed’ Poisson laws, and the perturbation diminishes as the node index increases. As the perturbation is attenuated, a pure Poisson limit ultimately emerges in later phases. Moreover, we derive asymptotics for the proportion of leaves and show that the limiting fraction is less than one half. Finally, we study the insertion depth in a random tree in this class. For the insertion depth, we find the exact probability distribution, involving Stirling numbers, and consequently we find the exact and asymptotic mean and variance. Under appropriate normalization, we derive a concentration law and a limiting normal distribution. Some of these results contrast with their counterparts in the uniform attachment model, and some are similar.

In this paper, we consider functional limit theorems for Poisson cluster processes. We first present a maximal inequality for Poisson cluster processes. Then we establish a functional central limit theorem under the second moment and a functional moderate deviation principle under the Cramér condition for Poisson cluster processes. We apply these results to obtain a functional moderate deviation principle for linear Hawkes processes.

Suppose k balls are dropped into n boxes independently with uniform probability, where n, k are large with ratio approximately equal to some positive real $\lambda$ . The maximum box count has a counterintuitive behavior: first of all, with high probability it takes at most two values $m_n$ or $m_n+1$ , where $m_n$ is roughly $\frac{\ln n}{\ln \ln n}$ . Moreover, it oscillates between these two values with an unusual periodicity. In order to prove this statement and various generalizations, it is first shown that for $X_1,\ldots,X_n$ independent and identically distributed discrete random variables with common distribution F, under mild conditions, the limiting distribution of their maximum oscillates in three possible families, depending on the tail of the distribution. The result stated at the beginning follows from the ensemble equivalence for the order statistics in various allocations problems, obtained via conditioning limit theory. Results about the number of ties for the maximum, as well as applications, are also provided.

In this paper we first use the distribution of the number of records to demonstrate that the right tail probabilities of counts of rare events are generally better approximated by the right tail probabilities of a Poisson distribution than those of the normal distribution. We then show that the moderate deviations in Poisson approximation generally require an adjustment and, with suitable adjustment, we establish better error estimates of the moderate deviations in Poisson approximation than those in [18]. Our estimates contain no unspecified constants and are easy to apply. We illustrate the use of the theorems via six applications: Poisson-binomial distribution, the matching problem, the occupancy problem, the birthday problem, random graphs, and 2-runs. The paper complements the works [16], [8], and [18].

We investigate the Hawkes processes on the positive real line exhibiting both self-excitation and inhibition. Each point of such a point process impacts its future intensity by the addition of a signed reproduction function. The case of a nonnegative reproduction function corresponds to self-excitation, and has been widely investigated in the literature. In particular, there exists a cluster representation of the Hawkes process which allows one to apply known results for Galton–Watson trees. We use renewal techniques to establish limit theorems for Hawkes processes that have reproduction functions which are signed and have bounded support. Notably, we prove exponential concentration inequalities, extending results of Reynaud-Bouret and Roy (2006) previously proven for nonnegative reproduction functions using a cluster representation no longer valid in our case. Importantly, we establish the existence of exponential moments for renewal times of M/G/ $\infty$ queues which appear naturally in our problem. These results possess interest independent of the original problem.

We establish a fundamental property of bivariate Pareto records for independent observations uniformly distributed in the unit square. We prove that the asymptotic conditional distribution of the number of records broken by an observation given that the observation sets a record is Geometric with parameter 1/2.

A new approach to prove weak convergence of random polytopes on the space of compact convex sets is presented. This is used to show that the profile of the rescaled Schläfli random cone of a random conical tessellation, generated by n independent and uniformly distributed random linear hyperplanes in $\mathbb {R}^{d+1}$ , weakly converges to the typical cell of a stationary and isotropic Poisson hyperplane tessellation in $\mathbb {R}^d$ , as $n\to \infty $ .