In 2008, Tóth and Vető defined the self-repelling random walk with directed edges as a non-Markovian random walk on $\unicode{x2124}$: in this model, the probability that the walk moves from a point of $\unicode{x2124}$ to a given neighbor depends on the number of previous crossings of the directed edge from the initial point to the target, called the local time of the edge. Tóth and Vető found that this model exhibited very peculiar behavior, as the process formed by the local times of all the edges, evaluated at a stopping time of a certain type and suitably renormalized, converges to a deterministic process, instead of a random one as in similar models. In this work, we study the fluctuations of the local times process around its deterministic limit, about which nothing was previously known. We prove that these fluctuations converge in the Skorokhod $M_1$ topology, as well as in the uniform topology away from the discontinuities of the limit, but not in the most classical Skorokhod topology. We also prove the convergence of the fluctuations of the aforementioned stopping times.

We consider an SIR (susceptible $\to$ infective $\to$ recovered) epidemic in a closed population of size n, in which infection spreads via mixing events, comprising individuals chosen uniformly at random from the population, which occur at the points of a Poisson process. This contrasts sharply with most epidemic models, in which infection is spread purely by pairwise interaction. A sequence of epidemic processes, indexed by n, and an approximating branching process are constructed on a common probability space via embedded random walks. We show that under suitable conditions the process of infectives in the epidemic process converges almost surely to the branching process. This leads to a threshold theorem for the epidemic process, where a major outbreak is defined as one that infects at least $\log n$ individuals. We show further that there exists $\delta \gt 0$, depending on the model parameters, such that the probability that a major outbreak has size at least $\delta n$ tends to one as $n \to \infty$.

Given a connected graph $H$ which is not a star, we show that the number of copies of $H$ in a dense uniformly random regular graph is asymptotically Gaussian, which was not known even for $H$ being a triangle. This addresses a question of McKay from the 2010 International Congress of Mathematicians. In fact, we prove that the behavior of the variance of the number of copies of $H$ depends in a delicate manner on the occurrence and number of cycles of $3,4,5$ edges as well as paths of $3$ edges in $H$. More generally, we provide control of the asymptotic distribution of certain statistics of bounded degree which are invariant under vertex permutations, including moments of the spectrum of a random regular graph. Our techniques are based on combining complex-analytic methods due to McKay and Wormald used to enumerate regular graphs with the notion of graph factors developed by Janson in the context of studying subgraph counts in $\mathbb {G}(n,p)$.

Extreme value theory plays an important role in providing approximation results for the extremes of a sequence of independent random variables when their distribution is unknown. An important one is given by the generalised Pareto distribution $H_\gamma(x)$ as an approximation of the distribution $F_t(s(t)x)$ of the excesses over a threshold t, where s(t) is a suitable norming function. We study the rate of convergence of $F_t(s(t)\cdot)$ to $H_\gamma$ in variational and Hellinger distances and translate it into that regarding the Kullback–Leibler divergence between the respective densities.

Motivated by applications to COVID dynamics, we describe a model of a branching process in a random environment $\{Z_n\}$ whose characteristics change when crossing upper and lower thresholds. This introduces a cyclical path behavior involving periods of increase and decrease leading to supercritical and subcritical regimes. Even though the process is not Markov, we identify subsequences at random time points $\{(\tau_j, \nu_j)\}$—specifically the values of the process at crossing times, viz. $\{(Z_{\tau_j}, Z_{\nu_j})\}$—along which the process retains the Markov structure. Under mild moment and regularity conditions, we establish that the subsequences possess a regenerative structure and prove that the limiting normal distributions of the growth rates of the process in supercritical and subcritical regimes decouple. For this reason, we establish limit theorems concerning the length of supercritical and subcritical regimes and the proportion of time the process spends in these regimes. As a byproduct of our analysis, we explicitly identify the limiting variances in terms of the functionals of the offspring distribution, threshold distribution, and environmental sequences.

Real networks often exhibit clustering, the tendency to form relatively small groups of nodes with high edge densities. This clustering property can cause large numbers of small and dense subgraphs to emerge in otherwise sparse networks. Subgraph counts are an important and commonly used source of information about the network structure and function. We study probability distributions of subgraph counts in a community affiliation graph. This is a random graph generated as an overlay of m partly overlapping independent Bernoulli random graphs (layers) $G_1,\dots,G_m$ with variable sizes and densities. The model is parameterised by a joint distribution of layer sizes and densities. When m grows linearly in the number of nodes n, the model generates sparse random graphs with a rich statistical structure, admitting a nonvanishing clustering coefficient and a power-law limiting degree distribution. In this paper we establish the normal and $\alpha$-stable approximations to the numbers of small cliques, cycles, and more general 2-connected subgraphs of a community affiliation graph.

We consider parallel single-server queues in heavy traffic with randomly split Hawkes arrival processes. The service times are assumed to be independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) in each queue and are independent in different queues. In the critically loaded regime at each queue, it is shown that the diffusion-scaled queueing and workload processes converge to a multidimensional reflected Brownian motion in the non-negative orthant with orthonormal reflections. For the model with abandonment, we also show that the corresponding limit is a multidimensional reflected Ornstein–Uhlenbeck diffusion in the non-negative orthant.

We use Stein’s method to establish the rates of normal approximation in terms of the total variation distance for a large class of sums of score functions of samples arising from random events driven by a marked Poisson point process on $\mathbb{R}^d$ . As in the study under the weaker Kolmogorov distance, the score functions are assumed to satisfy stabilisation and moment conditions. At the cost of an additional non-singularity condition, we show that the rates are in line with those under the Kolmogorov distance. We demonstrate the use of the theorems in four applications: Voronoi tessellations, k-nearest-neighbours graphs, timber volume, and maximal layers.

We consider infinitely wide multi-layer perceptrons (MLPs) which are limits of standard deep feed-forward neural networks. We assume that, for each layer, the weights of an MLP are initialized with independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) samples from either a light-tailed (finite-variance) or a heavy-tailed distribution in the domain of attraction of a symmetric $\alpha$ -stable distribution, where $\alpha\in(0,2]$ may depend on the layer. For the bias terms of the layer, we assume i.i.d. initializations with a symmetric $\alpha$ -stable distribution having the same $\alpha$ parameter as that layer. Non-stable heavy-tailed weight distributions are important since they have been empirically seen to emerge in trained deep neural nets such as the ResNet and VGG series, and proven to naturally arise via stochastic gradient descent. The introduction of heavy-tailed weights broadens the class of priors in Bayesian neural networks. In this work we extend a recent result of Favaro, Fortini, and Peluchetti (2020) to show that the vector of pre-activation values at all nodes of a given hidden layer converges in the limit, under a suitable scaling, to a vector of i.i.d. random variables with symmetric $\alpha$ -stable distributions, $\alpha\in(0,2]$ .

We show how convergence to the Gumbel distribution in an extreme value setting can be understood in an information-theoretic sense. We introduce a new type of score function which behaves well under the maximum operation, and which implies simple expressions for entropy and relative entropy. We show that, assuming certain properties of the von Mises representation, convergence to the Gumbel distribution can be proved in the strong sense of relative entropy.

This paper investigates properties of the class of graphs based on exchangeable point processes. We provide asymptotic expressions for the number of edges, number of nodes, and degree distributions, identifying four regimes: (i) a dense regime, (ii) a sparse, almost dense regime, (iii) a sparse regime with power-law behaviour, and (iv) an almost extremely sparse regime. We show that, under mild assumptions, both the global and local clustering coefficients converge to constants which may or may not be the same. We also derive a central limit theorem for subgraph counts and for the number of nodes. Finally, we propose a class of models within this framework where one can separately control the latent structure and the global sparsity/power-law properties of the graph.

In this paper, we consider the convergence rate with respect to Wasserstein distance in the invariance principle for deterministic non-uniformly hyperbolic systems. Our results apply to uniformly hyperbolic systems and large classes of non-uniformly hyperbolic systems including intermittent maps, Viana maps, unimodal maps and others. Furthermore, as a non-trivial application to the homogenization problem, we investigate the Wasserstein convergence rate of a fast–slow discrete deterministic system to a stochastic differential equation.

A system of interacting multi-class finite-state jump processes is analyzed. The model under consideration consists of a block-structured network with dynamically changing multi-color nodes. The interactions are local and described through local empirical measures. Two levels of heterogeneity are considered: between and within the blocks where the nodes are labeled into two types. The central nodes are those connected only to nodes from the same block, whereas the peripheral nodes are connected to both nodes from the same block and nodes from other blocks. Limits of such systems as the number of nodes tends to infinity are investigated. In particular, under specific regularity conditions, propagation of chaos and the law of large numbers are established in a multi-population setting. Moreover, it is shown that, as the number of nodes goes to infinity, the behavior of the system can be represented by the solution of a McKean–Vlasov system. Then, we prove large deviations principles for the vectors of empirical measures and the empirical processes, which extends the classical results of Dawson and Gärtner (Stochastics 20, 1987) and Léonard (Ann. Inst. H. Poincaré Prob. Statist. 31, 1995).

We study homogenization for a class of non-symmetric pure jump Feller processes. The jump intensity involves periodic and aperiodic constituents, as well as oscillating and non-oscillating constituents. This means that the noise can come both from the underlying periodic medium and from external environments, and is allowed to have different scales. It turns out that the Feller process converges in distribution, as the scaling parameter goes to zero, to a Lévy process. As special cases of our result, some homogenization problems studied in previous works can be recovered. We also generalize the approach to the homogenization of symmetric stable-like processes with variable order. Moreover, we present some numerical experiments to demonstrate the usage of our homogenization results in the numerical approximation of first exit times.

We study the large-volume asymptotics of the sum of power-weighted edge lengths $\sum_{e \in E}|e|^\alpha$ in Poisson-based spatial random networks. In the regime $\alpha > d$ , we provide a set of sufficient conditions under which the upper-large-deviation asymptotics are characterized by a condensation phenomenon, meaning that the excess is caused by a negligible portion of Poisson points. Moreover, the rate function can be expressed through a concrete optimization problem. This framework encompasses in particular directed, bidirected, and undirected variants of the k-nearest-neighbor graph, as well as suitable $\beta$ -skeletons.

In this paper we consider the problem of averaging for a class of piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMPs) whose dynamic is constrained by the presence of a boundary. On reaching the boundary, the process is forced to jump away from it. We assume that this boundary is attractive for the process in question in the sense that its averaged flow is not tangent to it. Our averaging result relies strongly on the existence of densities for the process, allowing us to study the average number of crossings of a smooth hypersurface by an unconstrained PDMP and to deduce from this study averaging results for constrained PDMPs.

The basic idea of voting protocols is that nodes query a sample of other nodes and adjust their own opinion throughout several rounds based on the proportion of the sampled opinions. In the classic model, it is assumed that all nodes have the same weight. We study voting protocols for heterogeneous weights with respect to fairness. A voting protocol is fair if the influence on the eventual outcome of a given participant is linear in its weight. Previous work used sampling with replacement to construct a fair voting scheme. However, it was shown that using greedy sampling, i.e., sampling with replacement until a given number of distinct elements is chosen, turns out to be more robust and performant.

In this paper, we study fairness of voting protocols with greedy sampling and propose a voting scheme that is asymptotically fair for a broad class of weight distributions. We complement our theoretical findings with numerical results and present several open questions and conjectures.

We study the distribution of the consensus formed by a broadcast-based consensus algorithm for cases in which the initial opinions of agents are random variables. We first derive two fundamental equations for the time evolution of the average opinion of agents. Using the derived equations, we then investigate the distribution of the consensus in the limit in which agents do not have any mutual trust, and show that the consensus without mutual trust among agents is in sharp contrast to the consensus with complete mutual trust in the statistical properties if the initial opinion of each agent is integrable. Next, we provide the formulation necessary to mathematically discuss the consensus in the limit in which the number of agents tends to infinity, and derive several results, including a central limit theorem concerning the consensus in this limit. Finally, we study the distribution of the consensus when the initial opinions of agents follow a stable distribution, and show that the consensus also follows a stable distribution in the limit in which the number of agents tends to infinity.

We show that, under finitely many ergodicity assumptions, any multicorrelation sequence defined by invertible measure-preserving $\mathbb {Z}^d$ -actions with multivariable integer polynomial iterates is the sum of a nilsequence and a nullsequence, extending a recent result of the second author. To this end, we develop a new seminorm bound estimate for multiple averages by improving the results in a previous work of the first, third, and fourth authors. We also use this approach to obtain new criteria for joint ergodicity of multiple averages with multivariable polynomial iterates on ${\mathbb Z}^{d}$ -systems.