The incidence of scarlet fever has increased dramatically in recent years in Chongqing, China, but there has no effective method to forecast it. This study aimed to develop a forecasting model of the incidence of scarlet fever using a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. Monthly scarlet fever data between 2011 and 2019 in Chongqing, China were retrieved from the Notifiable Infectious Disease Surveillance System. From 2011 to 2019, a total of 5073 scarlet fever cases were reported in Chongqing, the male-to-female ratio was 1.44:1, children aged 3–9 years old accounted for 81.86% of the cases, while 42.70 and 42.58% of the reported cases were students and kindergarten children, respectively. The data from 2011 to 2018 were used to fit a SARIMA model and data in 2019 were used to validate the model. The normalised Bayesian information criterion (BIC), the coefficient of determination (R2) and the root mean squared error (RMSE) were used to evaluate the goodness-of-fit of the fitted model. The optimal SARIMA model was identified as (3, 1, 3) (3, 1, 0)12. The RMSE and mean absolute per cent error (MAPE) were used to assess the accuracy of the model. The RMSE and MAPE of the predicted values were 19.40 and 0.25 respectively, indicating that the predicted values matched the observed values reasonably well. Taken together, the SARIMA model could be employed to forecast scarlet fever incidence trend, providing support for scarlet fever control and prevention.

A smart morphing winglet driven by piezoelectric Macro Fiber Composite (MFC) is designed to adjust cant angle autonomously for various flight conditions. The smart morphing winglet is composed of the MFC actuator, DC-DC converter, power supply, winglet part and wing part. A hinge is designed to transfer the bending deformation of intelligent MFC bending actuator to rotation of the winglet structure so as to achieve the adaptive cant angle. Experimental and numerical work are conducted to evaluate the performance of smart morphing winglet. It is demonstrated that the proposed intelligent MFC bending actuator has an excellent bending performance and load resistance. This smart morphing winglet exhibits the excellent characteristic of flexibility on large deformation and lightweight. Moreover, a series of wind tunnel tests are performed, which demonstrate that the winglet driven by intelligent MFC bending actuator produces sufficient deformation in various wind speed. At high wind speed, the cant angle of the winglet can reach 16 degrees, which is still considered to be very useful for improving the aerodynamic performance of the aircraft. The aerodynamic characteristics are investigated by wind tunnel tests with various attack angles. As a result, when the morphing winglet is actuated, the lift-to-drag ratio could vary up to 11.9% and 6.4%, respectively, under wind speeds of 5.4 and 8.5m/s. Meanwhile, different flight phases such as take-off, cruise and landing are considered to improve aerodynamic performance by adjusting the cant angle of winglet. The smart morphing winglet varies the aerofoil autonomously by controlling the low winglet device input voltage to remain optimal aerodynamic performance during the flight process. It demonstrates the feasibility of piezoelectric composites driving intelligent aircraft.

Let $\mathcal {O}(\pi )$ denote the number of odd parts in an integer partition $\pi$. In 2005, Stanley introduced a new statistic $\operatorname {srank}(\pi )=\mathcal {O}(\pi )-\mathcal {O}(\pi ')$, where $\pi '$ is the conjugate of $\pi$. Let $p(r,\,m;n)$ denote the number of partitions of $n$ with srank congruent to $r$ modulo $m$. Generating function identities, congruences and inequalities for $p(0,\,4;n)$ and $p(2,\,4;n)$ were then established by a number of mathematicians, including Stanley, Andrews, Swisher, Berkovich and Garvan. Motivated by these works, we deduce some generating functions and inequalities for $p(r,\,m;n)$ with $m=16$ and $24$. These results are refinements of some inequalities due to Swisher.

Pneumatic launch systems for Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), including mechanical and pneumatic systems, are complex and non-linear. They are subjected to system parameters during launch, which leads to difficulty in engineering research analysis. For example, the mismatch between the UAV parameters and the parameter design indices of the launch system as well as the unclear design indices of the launching speed and overload of UAVs have a great impact on launch safety. Considering this situation, some studies are presented in this paper. Taking the pneumatic launch system as a research object, a pneumatic launcher dynamic simulation model is built based on co-simulation considering the coupling characteristics of the mechanical structure and transmission system. Its accuracy was verified by laboratory test results. Based on this model, the paper shows the effects of the key parameters, including the mass of the UAV, cylinder volume, pressure and moment of inertia of the pulley block, on the performance of the dynamic characteristics of the launch process. Then, a method for matching the parameter characteristics between the UAV and launch system based on batch simulation is proposed. The set of matching parameter values of the UAV and launch system that satisfy the launch take-off safety criteria are calculated. Finally, the influence of the system parameters of the launch process on the launch performance was analysed in detail, and the design optimised. Meaningful conclusions were obtained. The analysis method and its results can provide a reference for engineering and theoretical research and development of pneumatic launch systems.

Considering the shortcomings of current methods for real-time resolution of two-aircraft flight conflicts, a geometric optimal conflict resolution and recovery method based on the velocity obstacle method for two aircraft and a cooperative conflict resolution method for multiple aircraft are proposed. The conflict type was determined according to the relative position and velocity of the aircraft, and a corresponding conflict mitigation strategy was selected. A resolution manoeuvre and a recovery manoeuvre were performed. On the basis of a two-aircraft conflict resolution model, a multi-aircraft cooperative conflict resolution game was constructed to identify an optimal solution for maximising group welfare. The solution and recovery method is simple and effective, and no new flight conflicts are introduced during track recovery. For multi-aircraft conflict resolution, an equilibrium point that maximises the welfare function of the group was identified, and thus, an optimal strategy for multi-aircraft conflict resolution was obtained.

Carrier-based unmanned aerial aircraft (UAV) structure is subjected to severe tensile load during takeoff, especially the drawbar, which affects its fatigue performance and structural safety. However, the complex structural features pose great challenges for the engineering design. Considering this situation, a structural design, fatigue analysis, and parameters optimisation joint working platform are urgently needed to solve this problem. In this study, numerical analysis of strain fatigue is carried out based on the laboratory fatigue failure of the carrier-based aircraft drawbar. Taking the sensitivity of drawbar parameters to stress and life into account and optimum design of drawbar with fatigue life as a target using the parametric method, this study also includes cutting-edge parameters of milling cutters, structural details of the drawbar and so on. Then an experimental design is applied using the Latin hypercube sampling method, and a surrogate model based on RBF neural network is established. Lastly, a multi-island genetic algorithm is introduced for optimisation. The results show that the error between the obtained optimal solution and simulation is 0.26%, while the optimised stress level is reduced by 15.7%, and the life of the drawbar is increased by 122%.

To investigate the influences of dietary riboflavin (RF) addition on nutrient digestion and rumen fermentation, eight rumen cannulated Holstein bulls were randomly allocated into four treatments in a repeated 4 × 4 Latin square design. Daily addition level of RF for each bull in control, low RF, medium RF and high RF was 0, 300, 600 and 900 mg, respectively. Increasing the addition level of RF, DM intake was not affected, average daily gain tended to be increased linearly and feed conversion ratio decreased linearly. Total tract digestibilities of DM, organic matter, crude protein (CP) and neutral-detergent fibre (NDF) increased linearly. Rumen pH decreased quadratically, and total volatile fatty acids (VFA) increased quadratically. Acetate molar percentage and acetate:propionate ratio increased linearly, but propionate molar percentage and ammonia-N content decreased linearly. Rumen effective degradability of DM increased linearly, NDF increased quadratically but CP was unaltered. Activity of cellulase and populations of total bacteria, protozoa, fungi, dominant cellulolytic bacteria, Prevotella ruminicola and Ruminobacter amylophilus increased linearly. Linear increase was observed for urinary total purine derivatives excretion. The data suggested that dietary RF addition was essential for rumen microbial growth, and no further increase in performance and rumen total VFA concentration was observed when increasing RF level from 600 to 900 mg/d in dairy bulls.

An acute gastroenteritis (AGE) outbreak caused by a norovirus occurred at a hospital in Shanghai, China, was studied for molecular epidemiology, host susceptibility and serological roles. Rectal and environmental swabs, paired serum samples and saliva specimens were collected. Pathogens were detected by real-time polymerase chain reaction and DNA sequencing. Histo-blood group antigens (HBGA) phenotypes of saliva samples and their binding to norovirus protruding proteins were determined by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. The HBGA-binding interfaces and the surrounding region were analysed by the MegAlign program of DNAstar 7.1. Twenty-seven individuals in two care units were attacked with AGE at attack rates of 9.02 and 11.68%. Eighteen (78.2%) symptomatic and five (38.4%) asymptomatic individuals were GII.6/b norovirus positive. Saliva-based HBGA phenotyping showed that all symptomatic and asymptomatic cases belonged to A, B, AB or O secretors. Only four (16.7%) out of the 24 tested serum samples showed low blockade activity against HBGA-norovirus binding at the acute phase, whereas 11 (45.8%) samples at the convalescence stage showed seroconversion of such blockade. Specific blockade antibody in the population played an essential role in this norovirus epidemic. A wide HBGA-binding spectrum of GII.6 supports a need for continuous health attention and surveillance in different settings.

Gravitational waves from coalescing neutron stars encode information about nuclear matter at extreme densities, inaccessible by laboratory experiments. The late inspiral is influenced by the presence of tides, which depend on the neutron star equation of state. Neutron star mergers are expected to often produce rapidly rotating remnant neutron stars that emit gravitational waves. These will provide clues to the extremely hot post-merger environment. This signature of nuclear matter in gravitational waves contains most information in the 2–4 kHz frequency band, which is outside of the most sensitive band of current detectors. We present the design concept and science case for a Neutron Star Extreme Matter Observatory (NEMO): a gravitational-wave interferometer optimised to study nuclear physics with merging neutron stars. The concept uses high-circulating laser power, quantum squeezing, and a detector topology specifically designed to achieve the high-frequency sensitivity necessary to probe nuclear matter using gravitational waves. Above 1 kHz, the proposed strain sensitivity is comparable to full third-generation detectors at a fraction of the cost. Such sensitivity changes expected event rates for detection of post-merger remnants from approximately one per few decades with two A+ detectors to a few per year and potentially allow for the first gravitational-wave observations of supernovae, isolated neutron stars, and other exotica.

This article examines the French role in creating an integrated wine policy at the European level and demonstrates that political negotiations over the policy revealed competing European conceptions of agriculture and identity. Drawing on research in EEC and French historical archives, this article argues that in spite of the risks involved in relinquishing sovereignty over a key national industry with deep cultural resonance, the French government was determined to transfer responsibility for much of the sector to the European Community due to continued domestic pressure. Further, it suggests that common values around the centrality of agriculture in the European project meant that countries were persistent in realising a wine policy even though wine was not a natural fit in the pantheon of other goods for which common markets were created.

A disruption database characterizing the current quench of disruptions with ITER-like tungsten divertor has been developed on EAST. It provides a large number of plasma parameters describing the predisruptive plasma, current quench time, eddy current, and mitigation by massive impurity injection, which shows that the current quench time strongly depends on magnetic energy and post-disruption electron temperature. Further, the energy balance and magnetic energy dissipation during the current quench phase has been well analysed. Magnetic energy is also demonstrated to be dissipated mainly by ohmic reheating and inductive coupling, and both of the two channels have great effects on current quench time. Also, massive gas injection is an efficient method to speed up the current quench and increase the fraction of impurity radiation.

The effects of the Mg/Si ratio and aging treatment on the strength and electrical conductivity of Al–Mg–Si 6201 conductor alloys were investigated. Four experimental alloys with different Mg/Si ratios of 2, 1.5, 1, and 0.86 and with a constant Mg level of 0.65 wt% were prepared. It was revealed that excessive Si (a low Mg/Si ratio) increased the peak strength, while the corresponding electrical conductivity decreased. To fulfill the minimum required electrical conductivity (52.5% IACS), the alloys with low Mg/Si ratios required a longer aging time after peak aging to improve electrical conductivity. The alloy with an Mg/Si ratio of ~1 was the best candidate, exhibiting the highest strength up to 54% IACS. On the high end of electrical conductivity (54–56% IACS), the alloy with an Mg/Si ratio of ~1.5 provides a better compromise between strength and electrical conductivity. Furthermore, the strengthening mechanisms and the factors influencing electrical conductivity were discussed for further optimization.

A study of low-speed streaks (LSSs) embedded in the near-wall region of a turbulent boundary layer is performed using selective visualization and analysis of time-resolved tomographic particle image velocimetry (tomo-PIV). First, a three-dimensional velocity field database is acquired using time-resolved tomo-PIV for an early turbulent boundary layer. Second, detailed time-line flow patterns are obtained from the low-order reconstructed database using ‘tomographic visualizations’ by Lagrangian tracking. These time-line patterns compare remarkably well with previously observed patterns using hydrogen bubble flow visualization, and allow local identification of LSSs within the database. Third, the flow behaviour in proximity to selected LSSs is examined at varying wall distances ($10 < y^+ < 100$) and assessed using time-line and material surface evolution, to reveal the flow structure and evolution of a streak, and the flow structure evolving from streak development. It is observed that three-dimensional wave behaviour of the detected LSSs appears to develop into associated near-wall vortex flow structures, in a process somewhat similar to transitional boundary layer behaviour. Fourth, the presence of Lagrangian coherent structures is assessed in proximity to the LSSs using a Lagrangian-averaged vorticity deviation process. It is observed that quasi-streamwise vortices, adjacent to the sides of the streak-associated three-dimensional wave, precipitate an interaction with the streak. Finally, a hypothesis based on the behaviour of soliton-like coherent structures is made which explains the process of LSS formation, bursting behaviour and the generation of hairpin vortices. Comparison with other models is also discussed.

The aerodynamic performance of a deployable and low-cost unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) is investigated and improved in present work. The parameters of configuration, such as airfoil and winglet, are determined via an optimising process based on a discrete adjoint method. The optimised target is locked on an increasing lift-to-drag ratio with a limited variation of pitching moments. The separation that will lead to a stall is delayed after optimisation. Up to 128 design variables are used by the optimised solver to give enough flexibility of the geometrical transformation. As much as 20% enhancement of lift-to-drag ratio is gained at the cruise angle-of-attack, that is, a significant improvement in the lift-to-drag ratio adhering to the preferred configuration is obtained with increasing lift and decreasing drag coefficients, essentially entailing an improved aerodynamic performance.

Bordetella bronchiseptica is a potential zoonotic pathogen, which mainly causes respiratory diseases in humans and a variety of animal species. B. bronchiseptica is one of the important pathogens isolated from rabbits in Fujian Province. However, the knowledge of the epidemiology and characteristics of the B. bronchiseptica in rabbits in Fujian Province is largely unknown. In this study, 219 B. bronchiseptica isolates recovered from lung samples of dead rabbits with respiratory diseases in Fujian Province were characterised by multi-locus sequencing typing, screening virulence genes and testing antimicrobial susceptibility. The results showed that the 219 isolates were typed into 11 sequence types (STs) including five known STs (ST6, ST10, ST12, ST14 and ST33) and six new STs (ST88, ST89, ST90, ST91, ST92 and ST93) and the ST33 (30.14%, 66/219), ST14 (26.94%, 59/219) and ST12 (16.44%, 36/219) were the three most prevalent STs. Surprisingly, all the 219 isolates carried the five virulence genes (fhaB, prn, cyaA, dnt and bteA) in the polymerase chain reaction screening. Moreover, the isolates were resistant to cefixime, ceftizoxime, cefatriaxone and ampicillin at rates of 33.33%, 31.05%, 11.87% and 3.20%, respectively. This study showed the genetic diversity of B. bronchiseptica in rabbits in Fujian Province, and the colonisation of the human-associated ST12 strain in rabbits in Fujian Province. The results might be useful for monitoring the epidemic strains, developing preventive methods and preventing the transmission of epidemic strains from rabbits to humans.

The Eating Assessment in Toddlers FFQ (EAT FFQ) has been shown to have good reliability and comparative validity for ranking nutrient intakes in young children. With the addition of food items (n 4), we aimed to re-assess the validity of the EAT FFQ and estimate calibration factors in a sub-sample of children (n 97) participating in the Growing Up Milk – Lite (GUMLi) randomised control trial (2015–2017). Participants completed the ninety-nine-item GUMLi EAT FFQ and record-assisted 24-h recalls (24HR) on two occasions. Energy and nutrient intakes were assessed at months 9 and 12 post-randomisation and calibration factors calculated to determine predicted estimates from the GUMLi EAT FFQ. Validity was assessed using Pearson correlation coefficients, weighted kappa (κ) and exact quartile categorisation. Calibration was calculated using linear regression models on 24HR, adjusted for sex and treatment group. Nutrient intakes were significantly correlated between the GUMLi EAT FFQ and 24HR at both time points. Energy-adjusted, de-attenuated Pearson correlations ranged from 0·3 (fibre) to 0·8 (Fe) at 9 months and from 0·3 (Ca) to 0·7 (Fe) at 12 months. Weighted κ for the quartiles ranged from 0·2 (Zn) to 0·6 (Fe) at 9 months and from 0·1 (total fat) to 0·5 (Fe) at 12 months. Exact agreement ranged from 30 to 74 %. Calibration factors predicted up to 56 % of the variation in the 24HR at 9 months and 44 % at 12 months. The GUMLi EAT FFQ remained a useful tool for ranking nutrient intakes with similar estimated validity compared with other FFQ used in children under 2 years.