Customer churn, which insurance companies use to describe the non-renewal of existing customers, is a widespread and expensive problem in general insurance, particularly because contracts are usually short-term and are renewed periodically. Traditionally, customer churn analyses have employed models which utilise only a binary outcome (churn or not churn) in one period. However, real business relationships are multi-period, and policyholders may reside and transition between a wider range of states beyond that of the simply churn/not churn throughout this relationship. To better encapsulate the richness of policyholder behaviours through time, we propose multi-state customer churn analysis, which aims to model behaviour over a larger number of states (defined by different combinations of insurance coverage taken) and across multiple periods (thereby making use of readily available longitudinal data). Using multinomial logistic regression (MLR) with a second-order Markov assumption, we demonstrate how multi-state customer churn analysis offers deeper insights into how a policyholder’s transition history is associated with their decision making, whether that be to retain the current set of policies, churn, or add/drop a coverage. Applying this model to commercial insurance data from the Wisconsin Local Government Property Insurance Fund, we illustrate how transition probabilities between states are affected by differing sets of explanatory variables and that a multi-state analysis can potentially offer stronger predictive performance and more accurate calculations of customer lifetime value (say), compared to the traditional customer churn analysis techniques.

This study aimed to identify clinical features for prognosing mortality risk using machine-learning methods in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). A retrospective study of the inpatients with COVID-19 admitted from 15 January to 15 March 2020 in Wuhan is reported. The data of symptoms, comorbidity, demographic, vital sign, CT scans results and laboratory test results on admission were collected. Machine-learning methods (Random Forest and XGboost) were used to rank clinical features for mortality risk. Multivariate logistic regression models were applied to identify clinical features with statistical significance. The predictors of mortality were lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), C-reactive protein (CRP) and age based on 500 bootstrapped samples. A multivariate logistic regression model was formed to predict mortality 292 in-sample patients with area under the receiver operating characteristics (AUROC) of 0.9521, which was better than CURB-65 (AUROC of 0.8501) and the machine-learning-based model (AUROC of 0.4530). An out-sample data set of 13 patients was further tested to show our model (AUROC of 0.6061) was also better than CURB-65 (AUROC of 0.4608) and the machine-learning-based model (AUROC of 0.2292). LDH, CRP and age can be used to identify severe patients with COVID-19 on hospital admission.

An effective multiplex real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay for the simultaneous detection of three major pathogens, Nosema bombycis Nägeli (Microsporidia: Nosematidae), Bombyx mori nucleopolyhedrovirus (Baculoviridae: genus Alphabaculovirus) (NPV), and Bombyx mori densovirus (Parvoviridae: genus Iteravirus) (DNV), in silkworms (Bombyx mori (Linnaeus); Lepidoptera: Bombycidae) was developed in this study. Polymerase chain reaction and real-time PCR tests and basic local alignment search tool searches revealed that the primers and probes used in this study had high specificities for their target species. The ability of each primer/probe set to detect pure pathogen DNA was determined using a plasmid dilution panel, in which under optimal conditions the multiplex real-time PCR assay showed high efficiency in the detection of three mixed target plasmids with a detection limit of 8.5×103 copies for N. bombycis and Bombyx mori NPV (BmNPV) and 8.5×104 copies for Bombyx mori DNV (BmDNV). When the ability to detect these three pathogens was examined in artificially inoculated silkworms, our method presented a number of advantages over traditional microscopy, including specificity, sensitivity, and high-throughput capabilities. Under the optimal volume ratio for the three primer/probe sets (3:2:2=N. bombycis:BmNPV:BmDNV), the multiplex real-time PCR assay showed early detection of BmNPV and BmDNV by day 1 post inoculation using DNA templates of the three pathogens in various combinations from individually infected silkworms; the early detection of N. bombycis was possible by day 3 post inoculation using the DNA isolated from the midgut of N. bombycis-infected silkworms.

In this paper, the recent studies of laboratory astrophysics with strong magnetic fields in China have been reviewed. On the Shenguang-II laser facility of the National Laboratory on High-Power Lasers and Physics, a laser-driven strong magnetic field up to 200 T has been achieved. The experiment was performed to model the interaction of solar wind with dayside magnetosphere. Also the low beta plasma magnetic reconnection (MR) has been studied. Theoretically, the model has been developed to deal with the atomic structures and processes in strong magnetic field. Also the study of shock wave generation in the magnetized counter-streaming plasmas is introduced.

Experimental X-ray powder diffraction data, unit-cell parameters, and space group for [C6Trop]+[PF6]−, C14H27NOPF6, are reported [a = 16.1879(6) Å, b = 11.4271(2) Å, c = 10.3966(5) Å, α = 66.4949(3)°, β = 94.5589(0)°, γ = 93.3092(4)°, unit-cell volume V = 1923.17 Å3, Z = 1, and space group P1]. No detectable impurities were observed.

The hot ductility of Ti-bearing steel was studied by theoretical calculation and a thermal simulation experiment. Meanwhile, microsegregation and precipitates were analyzed. The results showed that the S, P and O elements were enriched at the grain boundaries, while the hot ductility was deteriorated by inclusions of (Fe, Mn, Si, Al)(S,O) in the interdendritic region. At a temperature of 1300 °C, large TiN particles have little effect on the hot ductility. In the temperature range from 1000 °C to 900 °C, the Reduction of Area (R.A) declined rapidly from 81.77% to 31.77%, with the size of particles decreasing from 5 to 20 nm and quantity increasing from 1.2 inds/μm2 to 354 inds/μm2, respectively. In the temperature range from 900 °C to 850 °C, R.A decreased from 31.77% to 30.12% with the ferric films gradually thickening. The critical stress, 63.58 MPa, was equal to tensile strength at 912 °C. Intergranular fracture occurred easily with higher critical stress below 912 °C.

Ultrashort electron bunch trains can be used for plasma wake field acceleration (PWFA) to overcome the limit of transformer ratio of a single electron bunch, or high-power terahertz (Thz) radiation production by various radiation mechanisms. Basic facility for high-power THz radiation development based on ultrashort electron beam has been set up at accelerator lab of TUB. Using birefringent crystal serials, ultraviolet (UV) pulse shaping for photocathode radio frequency gun to produce THz-repetition-rate pulse train was realized. Driven by such pulses, ultrashort electron bunch train with picosecond (ps) spacing was obtained for THz production. Measurement of the stacked UV pulse trains was done by difference frequency generation (DFG), and the measured group velocity mismatch of α-BBO crystal at 266.7-nm wavelength was 0.8 ps/mm. This method may also be applied to form ramped electron bunch trains for PWFA.

A traditional assumption is that schistosome cercariae lose their tails at the onset of penetration. It has, however, recently been demonstrated that, for Schistosoma mansoni, cercarial tails were not invariably being shed as penetration took place and a high proportion of tails entered human skin under experimental conditions. This phenomenon was termed delayed tail loss (DTL). In this paper, we report that DTL also happens with S. japonicum cercariae during penetration of mouse skin. It occurred at all cercarial densities tested, from as few as 10 cercariae/2·25 cm2 of mouse skin up to 200 cercariae. Furthermore, it was demonstrated that there was a density-dependent increase in DTL as cercarial densities increased. No such density-dependent enhancement was shown for percentage attachment over the same cercarial density range.

The testosterone-inducible regulator (teiR) gene was cloned from Comamonas testosteroni chromosomal DNA, and introduced into plasmids pKtac2 (containing a tac promoter) and pK18 to yield plasmids pKtac2-teiR and pKteiR100. The recombinant plasmids were transformed into competent Escherichia coli HB101 and total protein was extracted to detect the TeiR protein expression level using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). E. coli transformed by pKtac2-teiR and pKteiR100 produced 6.65 and 5.93 μg/mg of TeiR protein, respectively. Recombinant plasmids were also co-transformed into competent E. coli HB101 with plasmid p6 [containing hsdA gene (3α-HSD/CR, 3α-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase/carbonyl reductase encoding gene)] to reveal the relationship between 3α-HSD/CR and TeiR by ELISA. The amounts of TeiR protein expressed by E. coli containing pKtac2-teiR and pKteiR100 were 5.94 μg/mg and 5.33 μg/mg, respectively, and these increased up to 6.81 μg/mg and 6.10 μg/mg after inducing with 1 mmol/l isopropyl-β-d-thiogalactoside (IPTG). Interestingly, 3α-HSD/CR protein expression level, after co-transformation with plasmids pKtac2-teiR and p6, was lower than that observed in the co-transformation with pKteiR100 and p6. The first co-transformation induced 1.20 μg/mg 3α-HSD/CR protein and the second 1.71 μg/mg. These values rose to 1.42 and 1.80 μg/mg, respectively, after treatment with 1 mmol/l IPTG. Our results proved that the tac promoter was more efficient than the lacZ promoter and that the teiR gene could act as an activator for hsdA gene expression.

Spermatogonial stem cells (SSCs), which were isolated from chicken (Gallus gallus) embryo testes 16 days after laying, were cultured, subcultured, and induced into adipocytes in vitro. The differentiated cells were identified by oil red-O staining. Dexamethasone, insulin and 3-isobutyl-1-methylxanthine (IBMX) were tested for their induction potential. About 7–21 days after induction, SSCs differentiated into adipocytes, and the resulting adipocytes strongly expressed peroxisome proliferation activation receptor-γ (PPAR-γ). The assay outcome showed that an optimal treatment consisted of dexamethasone, insulin and IBMX application for 3 days and insulin for 1 day (3 cycles), then insulin for 21 days. The differentiation ratio was 85%, better than the combined use of dexamethasone, insulin and IBMX (P<0.01). However, the combination of the three derivatives triggered a stronger induction than any of them used alone (P<0.01). This study has demonstrated the potential of chicken embryonic SSCs to differentiate in vitro into adipocytes.

Two suites of granitoids, the Late Jurassic (158 ± 3 Ma) Linglong suite and the Early Cretaceous (130–126 Ma) Guojialing suite, crop out in the northwestern Jiaodong Peninsula, eastern China. The Linglong suite is a monzogranite, comprising alkali feldspar, plagioclase, quartz and Fe-rich biotite. The Guojialing suite includes at least five plutonic bodies of both granodiorite and monzo-granite. The rocks are composed of plagioclase, alkali feldspar, quartz, Mg-rich amphibole and Mg-rich biotite. Both the Linglong and Guojialing suites have adakitic affinity. They are enriched in LREE with high La/Yb ratios and show positive Eu anomalies. The rocks are also enriched in LILE and depleted in HFSE with high Sr/Y ratios. The Linglong granite shows very uniform Sr–Nd isotopic compositions with initial 87Sr/86Sr ratios of 0.7119–0.7126 and εNd (T) values of −21.3 to −21.6, which are similar to those of the local Neoarchaean basement. The Guojialing suite has variable initial 87Sr/86Sr ratios (0.7108–0.7120) and εNd (T) values (−10.8 to −17.2), which are distinct both from those of the Neoarchaean basement and from those of the local enriched lithospheric mantle inferred from the coeval mafic dykes in the studied area. Detailed petrological and geochemical data indicate that the Linglong suite was derived by partial melting of Neoarchaean metamorphic lower-crustal rocks at depth of > 50 km with a eclogite residue, whereas the Guojialing suite was formed by the reaction of delaminated eclogitic crust-derived melt with the upwelling asthenospheric mantle. The petrogenesis of these two contrasting adakitic granitoids suggests intensive lower-crustal delamination during Early Cretaceous times, following a crustal thickening process from the late stage of the Early Jurassic to early stage of the Late Jurassic with crustal thickness of < 32 km to > 50 km, respectively.

To increase our understanding of the relationships of trunk fat mass (FMtrunk) and four anthropometric indices in Chinese males, 1090 males aged 20–40 years were randomly recruited from the city of Changsha, China. Waist circumference (WC) and hip circumference (HC) were measured using standardized equipment, and three other anthropometric indices of BMI, waist:hip ratio (WHR) and conicity index (CoI) were calculated using weight, height, HC and WC. FMtrunk (in kg) was measured using a Hologic QDR 4500 W dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry scanner. There was an increasing trend of FMtrunk, %FMtrunk (percentage of FMtrunk) and BMI, WC, WHR, CoI in successively older age groups (e.g. the mean FMtrunk values were 4·63 (sd 2·58), 5·39 (sd 2·74), 5·93 (sd 2·82), 6·57 (sd 2·94) in four 5-year age groups, respectively). FMtrunk and %FMtrunk were significantly correlated with four anthropometric indices with the Pearson's correlation coefficients ranging from 0·25 to 0·86. Principal component analysis was performed to form three principal components that interpreted over 99·5% of the total variation of four related anthropometric indices in all age groups, with over 65% of the total variation accounted by principal component 1. Multiple regression analyses showed that three principal components explained a greater variance (R2 70·0–80·1%) in FMtrunk than did BMI or WC alone (R2 57·8–74·1%). The present results suggest that there is an increasing trend of FMtrunk and four anthropometric indices in successively older age groups; that age has important effects on the relationships of FMtrunk and studied anthropometric indices; and that the accuracy of predicting FMtrunk using four anthropometric indices is higher than using BMI or WC alone.

A late Mesozoic belt of volcanic-intrusive complexes occurs in Southeast China. The Qianlishan granites are distributed in the northwest of the belt. The pluton is composed of porphyritic biotite granite (153 Ma) and equigranular biotite granite (151 Ma) and was intruded by granite-porphyry dykes (144 Ma) and mafic dykes such as lamprophyre and diabase (142 Ma). The granitic rocks, consisting mainly of K-feldspar, plagioclase, quartz and Fe-rich biotite, have SiO2 contents of 72.9–76.9%, and are enriched in alkalis, rare earth elements (REE), high field strength elements (HFSE) and Ga with high Ga/Al ratios, but depleted in Ba, Sr and transition metals. Trace-element geochemistry and Sr–Nd isotope systematics further imply that the Qianlishan granitic magmas were most probably derived by partial melting of Palaeo- to Mesoproterozoic metamorphic lower-crustal rocks that had been granulitized during an earlier thermal event. These features suggest an A-type affinity. The Qianlishan lamprophyre and neighbouring coeval mafic dykes (SiO2 = 47.9–53.8 wt%) have high MgO and compatible element contents. These rocks also have high K2O contents and are enriched in alkalis, light REE, large ion lithophile elements, and depleted in HFSE. They have low initial εNd values and relatively high initial 87Sr/86Sr ratios. We suggest a subduction-modified refractory lithospheric mantle (phlogopite-bearing harzburgite or lherzolite) for these high-Mg potassic magmas. The Qianlishan diabases (SiO2 = 48.4–48.7 wt%) are alkaline and have high TiO2 and total Fe2O3 contents, together with the positive initial εNd value, suggesting derivation from fertile asthenopheric mantle (phlogopite-bearing lherzolite). A back-arc extensional setting, related to subduction of the Palaeo-Pacific plate, is favoured to explain the petrogenesis of the Qianlishan granites and associated mafic dykes. Between 180 and 160 Ma, Southeast China was a continental arc, forming the 180–160 Ma plutons of the late Mesozoic volcanic-intrusive complex belt, and the lower-crust was granulitized. Since 160 Ma the northwestern belt has been in a back-arc extensional setting as a consequence of slab roll-back, resulting in the lithosphere thinning and an influx of asthenophere. The upwelling asthenosphere, on the one hand, induced the local lithospheric mantle to melt partially, forming high-Mg potassic magmas, and on the other hand it underwent decompression melting itself to form alkaline diabase magma. Pulsatory injection of such high-temperature magmas into the granulitized crustal source region induced them to partially melt and generate the A-type magmas of the Qianlishan granitic rocks.

Upstream open reading frames (uORFs) in 5′-untranslated regions (5′-UTRs) of eukaryotic mRNAs play an important role in translation efficiency. Computational analysis of the upstream ATG (uATG) and uORFs of 5′-UTRs of plant mRNAs, adopted from the nucleotide sequence databank, was carried out. Statistical analysis revealed that up to 18% of 5′-UTRs contain uATG, which is much higher than the earlier estimate. Among them, about 50% of the genes have one uATG and nearly 20% of them have two uATGs. About 85% of uORFs are non-overlapping. Thirty per cent of uORF peptides comprise 1–5 aa, and about 80% of uORFs fall in the range of below 20 aa. Sequences flanking the uATG codon differ strikingly from the functional initiation codon and the uATG triplet is more frequently located in a non-optimal context. Consensus sequences of the ATG codon context of mRNA with and without uATG are similar, whereas the ATG codon context of mRNA without uATG is more frequently located in an optimal context than is mRNA with uATG. Most mRNAs with uATGs are possibly related to regulatory functions. In addition, most mRNA uORFs have no similarity between plant species whereas sequences of a few uORFs are highly conserved. For example, mRNA uORFs encoding S-adenosyl-l-methionine decarboxylase (AdoMetDC) share 75–100% homology between plant species, which is much more conserved than AdoMetDC protein.