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The most commonly used technique for the analysis of quantitative data in business research is multiple regression analysis. This is a powerful technique for understanding the relationships between variables, which variables have the most impact, and for prediction. In this chapter, we consider how to specify regression models, how to estimate the models, and how to use the estimated models to undertake some simple hypothesis tests. We emphasize that the researcher has to exercise his/her judgement in deciding not only the specification of the initial model but also in how to adapt and interpret the model in response to the various statistical tests.
Information about the ideological positions of different political actors is crucial in answering questions regarding political representation, polarization, and voting behavior. One way to obtain such information is to ask survey respondents to place actors on a common ideological scale, but, unfortunately, respondents typically display a set of biases when performing such placements. Key among these are rationalization bias and differential item functioning (DIF). While Aldrich–McKelvey (AM) scaling offers a useful solution to DIF, it ignores the issue of rationalization bias, and this study presents Monte Carlo simulations demonstrating that AM-type models thus can give inaccurate results. As a response to this challenge, this study develops an alternative Bayesian scaling approach, which simultaneously estimates DIF and rationalization bias, and therefore performs better when the latter bias is present.
We consider signal denoising via transform-domain shrinkage based on a novel risk criterion called the minimum probability of error (MPE), which measures the probability that the estimated parameter lies outside an ε-neighborhood of the true value. The underlying parameter is assumed to be deterministic. The MPE, similar to the mean-squared error (MSE), depends on the ground-truth parameter, and therefore, has to be estimated from the noisy observations. The optimum shrinkage parameter is obtained by minimizing an estimate of the MPE. When the probability of error is integrated over ε, it leads to the expected ℓ1 distortion. The proposed MPE and ℓ1 distortion formulations are applicable to various noise distributions by invoking a Gaussian mixture model approximation. Within the realm of MPE, we also develop a specific extension to subband shrinkage. The denoising performance of MPE turns out to be better than that obtained using the minimum MSE-based approaches formulated within Stein's unbiased risk estimation (SURE) framework, especially in the low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) regime. Performance comparisons with three benchmarking algorithms carried out on electrocardiogram signals and standard test signals taken from the Wavelab toolbox show that the MPE framework results in SNR gains particularly for low input SNR.
I develop a procedure for estimating local-area public opinion called stacked regression and poststratification (SRP), a generalization of classical multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP). This procedure employs a diverse ensemble of predictive models—including multilevel regression, LASSO, k-nearest neighbors, random forest, and gradient boosting—to improve the cross-validated fit of the first-stage predictions. In a Monte Carlo simulation, SRP significantly outperforms MRP when there are deep interactions in the data generating process, without requiring the researcher to specify a complex parametric model in advance. In an empirical application, I show that SRP produces superior local public opinion estimates on a broad range of issue areas, particularly when trained on large datasets.
In human–robot cooperative industrial manipulators, safety issues are crucial. To control force safely, contact force information is necessary. Since force/torque sensors are expensive and hard to integrate into the robot design, estimation methods are used to estimate external forces. In this paper, the goal is to estimate external forces acting on the end-effector of the robot. The forces at the task space affect the joint space torques. Therefore, by employing an observer to estimate the torques, the task space forces can be obtained. To accomplish this, loadcells are employed to compute the net torques at the joints. The considered observers are extended Kalman filter (EKF) and nonlinear disturbance observer (NDOB). Utilizing the computed torque obtained based on the loadcells measurements and the observer, the estimates of external torques applied on the robot end-effector can be achieved. Moreover, to improve the degree of safety, an algorithm is proposed to distinguish between intentional contact force from an operator and accidental collisions. The proposed algorithms are demonstrated on a robot, namely WallMoBot, which is designed to help the operator to install heavy glass panels. Simulation results and preliminary experimental results are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods in estimating the joint space torques generated by the external forces applied to the WallMoBot end-effector and to distinguish between the user-input force and accidental collisions.
The random encounter model, a method for estimating animal density using camera traps without the need for individual recognition, has been developed over the past decade. A key assumption of this model is that cameras are placed randomly in relation to animal movements, requiring that cameras are not set only at sites thought to have high animal traffic. The aim of this study was to define a correction factor that allows the random encounter model to be applied in photo-trapping surveys in which cameras are placed along tracks to maximize capture probability. Our hypothesis was that applying such a correction factor would compensate for the different rates at which lynxes use tracks and the surrounding area, and should thus improve the estimates obtained with the random encounter model. We tested this using data from a well-known Iberian lynx Lynx pardinus population. Firstly, we estimated Iberian lynx densities using a traditional camera-trapping design followed by spatially explicit capture–recapture analyses. We estimated the differential use rate for tracks vs the surrounding area using data from a lynx equipped with a GPS collar, and subsequently calculated the correction factor. As expected, the random encounter model overestimated densities by 378%. However, the application of the correction factor improved the estimate and reduced the error to 16%. Although there are limitations to the application of the correction factor, the corrected random encounter model shows potential for density estimation of species for which individual identification is not possible.
Signaling games are central to political science but often have multiple equilibria, leading to no definitive prediction. We demonstrate that these indeterminacies create substantial problems when fitting theory to data: they lead to ill-defined and discontinuous likelihoods even if the game generating the data has a unique equilibrium. In our experiments, currently used techniques frequently fail to uncover the parameters of the canonical crisis-signaling game, regardless of sample size and number of equilibria in the data generating process. We propose three estimators that remedy these problems, outperforming current best practices. We fit the signaling model to data on economic sanctions. Our solutions find a novel U-shaped relationship between audience costs and the propensity for leaders to threaten sanctions, which current best practices fail to uncover.
We assess the reliability of relational event model (REM) parameters estimated under two sampling schemes: (1) uniform sampling from the observed events and (2) case–control sampling which samples nonevents, or null dyads (“controls”), from a suitably defined risk set. We experimentally determine the variability of estimated parameters as a function of the number of sampled events and controls per event, respectively. Results suggest that REMs can be reliably fitted to networks with more than 12 million nodes connected by more than 360 million dyadic events by analyzing a sample of some tens of thousands of events and a small number of controls per event. Using the data that we collected on the Wikipedia editing network, we illustrate how network effects commonly included in empirical studies based on REMs need widely different sample sizes to be reliably estimated. For our analysis we use an open-source software which implements the two sampling schemes, allowing analysts to fit and analyze REMs to the same or other data that may be collected in different empirical settings, varying sample parameters or model specification.
Navigational accidents (collisions and groundings) account for approximately 85% of mari-time accidents, and consequence estimation for such accidents is essential for both emergency resource allocation when such accidents occur and for risk management in the framework of a formal safety assessment. As the traditional Bayesian network requires expert judgement to develop the graphical structure, this paper proposes a mutual information-based Bayesian network method to reduce the requirement for expert judgements. The central premise of the proposed Bayesian network method involves calculating mutual information to obtain the quantitative element among multiple influencing factors. Seven-hundred and ninety-seven historical navigational accident records from 2006 to 2013 were used to validate the methodology. It is anticipated the model will provide a practical and reasonable method for consequence estimation of navigational accidents.
Earth’s magnetic field as it is measured by satellite missions is mainly generated by the dynamo process in the liquid outer core of the Earth. Other sources that are also regarded as internal are the static lithospheric field due to crustal magnetisation, the induced field in the mantle, lithospheric and Oceanic induced fields. The latter are generated by secondary dynamo processes, where the motion of conductive seawater in an ambient magnetic field induces a magnetic field. External fields originate in Earth’s magnetosphere and ionosphere. All these individual source fields differ in their strength, they spatially overlap and vary on similar time scales. These characteristics are challenging in resolving the processes that are related to these sources. The aim of this article is to provide a brief review of current geomagnetic field modelling techniques, which are based on measurements of Earth’s magnetic field at satellite altitude. Furthermore, we discuss different applications of the field modelling techniques and their limitations.
The prime focus of this work is to estimate stability and control derivatives of an airship in a completely nonlinear environment. A complete six degrees of freedom airship model has its aerodynamic model as nonlinear functions of angle of attack. Estimating the parameters of aerodynamic model in a nonlinear environment is challenging as it demands an exhaustive dataset that could cover the entire regime of operation of airship. In this work, data generation is achieved by simulating the mathematical model of airship for different trim conditions obtained from continuation analysis. The mathematical model is simulated using predicted parameter values obtained using DATCOM methodology. A modular neural network is then trained using back-propagation and Adam optimisation algorithm for each of the aerodynamic coefficients separately. The estimated nonlinear airship parameters are found to be consistent with the DATCOM parameter values which were used for open-loop simulation. This validates the proposed methodology and could be extended to estimate airship parameters from real flight data.
We consider the problem of estimating the rate of defects (mean number of defects per item), given the counts of defects detected by two independent imperfect inspectors on one sample of items. In contrast with the setting for the well-known method of Capture–Recapture, we do not have information regarding the number of defects jointly detected by both inspectors. We solve this problem by constructing two types of estimators—a simple moment-type estimator, and a complicated maximum-likelihood (ML) estimator. The performance of these estimators is studied analytically and by means of simulations. It is shown that the ML estimator is superior to the moment-type estimator. A systematic comparison with the Capture–Recapture method is also made.
Different from traditional multiple-input and multiple-output (MIMO) radar, the frequency diverse array MIMO (FDA-MIMO) radar generates beampattern that is dependent on both range and angle, making it applicable for joint range–angle estimation of targets. In this paper, we propose a novel time reversal based FDA-MIMO (TR-FDA-MIMO) approach for target detection. Based on the time reversal theory, the TR-FDA-MIMO signal model is established, the TR transmitting–receiving and signal processing procedure are analyzed, and the resulting range–angle spectra for targets imaging are acquired by utilizing the multiple signal classification algorithm. Numerical simulations are carried out for both single and multiple targets cases. The imaging resolution and robustness to the noise of the proposed approach are investigated and results are compared with conventional FDA-MIMO radar. It turned out that by cooperating with TR, the performance of FDA-MIMO radar for target range–angle estimation is effectively enhanced, consequently improving its applicability in practical target-detecting cases.
Experiments should be designed to facilitate the detection of experimental measurement error. To this end, we advocate the implementation of identical experimental protocols employing diverse experimental modes. We suggest iterative nonparametric estimation techniques for assessing the magnitude of heterogeneous treatment effects across these modes. And we propose two diagnostic strategies—measurement metrics embedded in experiments, and measurement experiments—that help assess whether any observed heterogeneity reflects experimental measurement error. To illustrate our argument, first we conduct and analyze results from four identical interactive experiments: in the lab; online with subjects from the CESS lab subject pool; online with an online subject pool; and online with MTurk workers. Second, we implement a measurement experiment in India with CESS Online subjects and MTurk workers.
Cognitive behavioural models of hypochondriasis assume that dysfunctional illness-related beliefs are involved in the genesis and maintenance of the disorder. The role that other more general dysfunctional beliefs about thoughts play in this disorder has also been highlighted. Internal triggers such as illness-related intrusive thoughts could activate these beliefs.
The present paper examines whether general dysfunctional beliefs about distressing thoughts, such as intolerance of uncertainty, over-estimation of threat, and thought-action fusion-likelihood, mediate between illness-related intrusive thoughts and health anxiety symptoms.
A group of participants composed of individuals with hypochondriasis (n = 31; 51.5% women; mean age = 32.74 years, SD = 9.96) and community individuals (n = 219; 54.3% women; mean age = 39.56 years, SD = 15.20) completed a series of questionnaires to assess illness-related intrusive thoughts (INPIE), dysfunctional beliefs about thoughts (OBSI-R), and health anxiety symptoms (SHAI).
Results from a multiple parallel mediation analysis indicate that over-estimation of threat partially mediated the relationship between illness-related intrusive thoughts and health anxiety symptoms.
The results support the importance of the tendency to over-estimate the threat in the relationship between intrusive thoughts related to illness contents and health anxiety. Conceptual and clinical implications of these results are discussed.
The research paper addresses the problem of estimating aerodynamic parameters using a Gauss-Newton-based optimisation method. The process of the optimisation method lies on the principle of minimising the residual error between the measured and simulated responses of the system. Usually, the simulated response is obtained by integrating the dynamic equations of the system, which is found to be susceptible to the initial values, and the integration method. With the advent of the feedforward neural network, the data-driven regression methods have been widely used for identification of the system. Among them, a variant of feedforward neural network, extreme learning machine, which has proven the performance in terms of computational cost, generalisation, and so forth, has been addressed to predict the responses in the present study. The real flight data of longitudinal and lateral-directional motion have been considered to estimate their respective aerodynamic parameters. Furthermore, the estimates have been validated with the values of the classical estimation methods, such as the equation-error and filter-error methods. The sample standard deviations of the estimates demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. Lastly, the proof-of-match exercise has been conducted with the other set of flight data to validate the estimated parameters.
In the manufacturing process of sophisticated and individualized large components, classical solutions to build large machine tools cannot meet the demand. A hybrid robot, which is made up of a 3 degree-of-freedom (3-DOF) parallel manipulator and a 2-DOF serial manipulator, has been developed as a plug-and-play robotized module that can be rapidly located in multi-stations where machining operations can be performed in situ. However, processing towards high absolute accuracy has become a huge challenge due to the movement of robot platform. In this paper, a human-guided vision system is proposed and integrated in the robot system to improve the accuracy of the end-effector of a robot. A handheld manipulator is utilized as a tool for human–robot interaction in the large-scale unstructured circumstances without intelligence. With 6-DOF, humans are able to manipulate the robot (end-effector) so as to guide the camera to see target markers mounted on the machining datum. Simulation is operated on the virtual control platform V-Rep, showing a high robust and real-time performance on mapping human manipulation to the end-effector of robot. And then, a vision-based pose estimation method on a target marker is proposed to define the position and orientation of machining datum, and a compensation method is applied to reduce pose errors on the entire machining trajectory. The algorithms are tested on V-Rep, and the results show that the absolute pose error reduces greatly with the proposed methods, and the system is immune to the motion deviation of the robot platform.
Temperature resulting from the joule heating power and the turn-on and turn-off dissipation of high-power, high-frequency applications is the root cause of their thermal instability, electrical performance degradation, and even thermal-fatigue failure. Thus, the study presents thermal and electrical characterizations of the power MOSFET module packaged in SOT-227 under natural convection and forced convection through three-dimensional (3D) thermal-electric (TE) coupled field analysis. In addition, the influences of some key parameters like electric loads, ambient conditions, thermal management considerations (heat sink, heat spreader) and operation conditions (duty cycle and switching frequency) on the power loss and thermal performance of the power module are addressed. The study starts from a suitable estimation of the power losses, where the conduction losses are calculated using the temperature- and gate-voltage-dependent on-state resistance and drain current through the device, and the switching losses are predicted based on the ideal switching waveforms of the power MOSFETs applied. The effectiveness of the theoretical predictions in terms of device’s power losses and temperatures is demonstrated through comparison with the results of circuit simulation and thermal experiment.