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A picture of Anglo-Welsh relations in the eleventh century must be pieced together from scattered and fragmentary evidence, including references to conflict and co-operation in various chronicles (whether English, Welsh or Irish) and the patterns of land-holding along the border revealed in Domesday Book and charters. This picture is consequently something of a patchwork, but nevertheless offers a tantalizing glimpse of complex and fluctuating interactions. For the period after the Norman Conquest of England, there have been numerous studies of interaction in the Welsh march, with focus especially on relations between native Welsh rulers and Marcher lords. The activities of Gruffudd ap Llywelyn (d. 1063) have dominated discussion of the decades prior to 1066, partly because of the impression this Welsh king made on English sources, including multiple appearances in the Anglo-Saxon Chronicles. Indeed, prior to the beginning of Gruffudd ap Llywelyn's rule over Gwynedd in 1039, Kari Maund has suggested that ‘Wales was not a major English concern in this period’, and nor were the Welsh particularly interested in England, focusing instead on internal conflict.
This understanding of Anglo-Welsh relations is not unproblematic. Whilst clearly an important figure, the unprecedented nature of Gruffudd ap Llywelyn's career ought not be exaggerated, and neither can a clear distinction between internal and external affairs in eleventh-century Wales be maintained. An overriding focus on the process of conquest has also resulted in the examination of Welsh relations with the Anglo-Normans primarily in terms of conflict. Placing Anglo-Welsh relations in a broader context has proved a more productive approach, as scholars have recognized that interaction across the Irish Sea region played a formative role in Welsh politics during this period, and that relations with England cannot be divorced from this wider setting. Indeed, Colmán Etchingham has made the case for expanding the borders of this theatre of interaction to cover the Scottish Isles and even Scandinavia itself, designating the whole area an ‘insular Viking zone’, of which north Wales was a key part. Etchingham has productively reinterpreted certain eleventh-century events in this broader context, such as the assistance given by Gruffudd ap Llywelyn and Magnús son of king Haraldr Harðráði of Norway to Earl Ælfgar of Mercia on his expulsion from England in 1058, and the killing of Hugh of Shrewsbury by Magnús Berfoettr on Anglesey in 1098.
To assess the utility of an automated, statistically-based outbreak detection system to identify clusters of hospital-acquired microorganisms.
Multicenter retrospective cohort study.
The study included 43 hospitals using a common infection prevention surveillance system.
A space–time permutation scan statistic was applied to hospital microbiology, admission, discharge, and transfer data to identify clustering of microorganisms within hospital locations and services. Infection preventionists were asked to rate the importance of each cluster. A convenience sample of 10 hospitals also provided information about clusters previously identified through their usual surveillance methods.
We identified 230 clusters in 43 hospitals involving Gram-positive and -negative bacteria and fungi. Half of the clusters progressed after initial detection, suggesting that early detection could trigger interventions to curtail further spread. Infection preventionists reported that they would have wanted to be alerted about 81% of these clusters. Factors associated with clusters judged to be moderately or highly concerning included high statistical significance, large size, and clusters involving Clostridioides difficile or multidrug-resistant organisms. Based on comparison data provided by the convenience sample of hospitals, only 9 (18%) of 51 clusters detected by usual surveillance met statistical significance, and of the 70 clusters not previously detected, 58 (83%) involved organisms not routinely targeted by the hospitals’ surveillance programs. All infection prevention programs felt that an automated outbreak detection tool would improve their ability to detect outbreaks and streamline their work.
Automated, statistically-based outbreak detection can increase the consistency, scope, and comprehensiveness of detecting hospital-associated transmission.
For decades, political and private polling operations have informed about the public’s perceptions regarding a range of topics. In particular, universities (e.g., Marist and Quinnipiac) provide noteworthy research to inform and predict the outcomes of US elections. Yet, what role do our classrooms play in advancing the public opinion polling skills of our students? This article uses experiential learning as a descriptive framework to illustrate how a yearlong, immersive, and student-led public opinion polling experience, the Big Sky Poll, advances students’ social-science and data-fluency skills. Our findings suggest important insights into the future of public opinion polling from the vantage point of a rural Western state, which can be replicated in other academic institutions.
Internationally, intimate partner violence (IPV) cohorts have demonstrated associations with depression and anxiety. However, this association has not yet been described in a UK population, nor has the association with serious mental illness (SMI).
To explore the relationship between IPV exposure and mental illness in a UK population.
We designed a retrospective cohort study whereby we matched 18 547 women exposed to IPV to 74 188 unexposed women. Outcomes of interest (anxiety, depression and SMI) were identified through clinical codes.
At baseline, 9174 (49.5%) women in the exposed group had some form of mental illness compared with 17 768 (24.0%) in the unexposed group, described as an adjusted odds ratio of 2.62 (95% CI 2.52–2.72). Excluding those with mental illness at baseline, 1254 exposed women (incidence rate 46.62 per 1000 person-years) went on to present with any type of mental illness compared with 3119 unexposed women (incidence rate 14.93 per 1000 person-years), with an aIRR of 2.77 (95% CI 2.58–2.97). Anxiety (aIRR 1.99, 95% CI 1.80–2.20), depression (aIRR 3.05, 95% CI 2.81–3.31) and SMI (aIRR 3.08, 95% CI 2.19–4.32) were all associated with exposure to IPV.
IPV remains a significant public health issue in the UK. We have demonstrated the significant recorded mental health burden associated with IPV in primary care, at both baseline and following exposure. Clinicians must be aware of this association to reduce mental illness diagnostic delay and improve management of psychological outcomes in this group of patients.
Research in big data, informatics, and bioinformatics has grown dramatically (Andreu-Perez J, et al., 2015, IEEE Journal of Biomedical and Health Informatics 19, 1193–1208). Advances in gene sequencing technologies, surveillance systems, and electronic medical records have increased the amount of health data available. Unconventional data sources such as social media, wearable sensors, and internet search engine activity have also contributed to the influx of health data. The purpose of this study was to describe how ‘big data’, ‘informatics’, and ‘bioinformatics’ have been used in the animal health and veterinary medical literature and to map and chart publications using these terms through time. A scoping review methodology was used. A literature search of the terms ‘big data’, ‘informatics’, and ‘bioinformatics’ was conducted in the context of animal health and veterinary medicine. Relevance screening on abstract and full-text was conducted sequentially. In order for articles to be relevant, they must have used the words ‘big data’, ‘informatics’, or ‘bioinformatics’ in the title or abstract and full-text and have dealt with one of the major animal species encountered in veterinary medicine. Data items collected for all relevant articles included species, geographic region, first author affiliation, and journal of publication. The study level, study type, and data sources were collected for primary studies. After relevance screening, 1093 were classified. While there was a steady increase in ‘bioinformatics’ articles between 1995 and the end of the study period, ‘informatics’ articles reached their peak in 2012, then declined. The first ‘big data’ publication in animal health and veterinary medicine was in 2012. While few articles used the term ‘big data’ (n = 14), recent growth in ‘big data’ articles was observed. All geographic regions produced publications in ‘informatics’ and ‘bioinformatics’ while only North America, Europe, Asia, and Australia/Oceania produced publications about ‘big data’. ‘Bioinformatics’ primary studies tended to use genetic data and tended to be conducted at the genetic level. In contrast, ‘informatics’ primary studies tended to use non-genetic data sources and conducted at an organismal level. The rapidly evolving definition of ‘big data’ may lead to avoidance of the term.
We present Phantom, a fast, parallel, modular, and low-memory smoothed particle hydrodynamics and magnetohydrodynamics code developed over the last decade for astrophysical applications in three dimensions. The code has been developed with a focus on stellar, galactic, planetary, and high energy astrophysics, and has already been used widely for studies of accretion discs and turbulence, from the birth of planets to how black holes accrete. Here we describe and test the core algorithms as well as modules for magnetohydrodynamics, self-gravity, sink particles, dust–gas mixtures, H2 chemistry, physical viscosity, external forces including numerous galactic potentials, Lense–Thirring precession, Poynting–Robertson drag, and stochastic turbulent driving. Phantom is hereby made publicly available.
The role that vitamin D plays in pulmonary function remains uncertain. Epidemiological studies reported mixed findings for serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D)–pulmonary function association. We conducted the largest cross-sectional meta-analysis of the 25(OH)D–pulmonary function association to date, based on nine European ancestry (EA) cohorts (n 22 838) and five African ancestry (AA) cohorts (n 4290) in the Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology Consortium. Data were analysed using linear models by cohort and ancestry. Effect modification by smoking status (current/former/never) was tested. Results were combined using fixed-effects meta-analysis. Mean serum 25(OH)D was 68 (sd 29) nmol/l for EA and 49 (sd 21) nmol/l for AA. For each 1 nmol/l higher 25(OH)D, forced expiratory volume in the 1st second (FEV1) was higher by 1·1 ml in EA (95 % CI 0·9, 1·3; P<0·0001) and 1·8 ml (95 % CI 1·1, 2·5; P<0·0001) in AA (Prace difference=0·06), and forced vital capacity (FVC) was higher by 1·3 ml in EA (95 % CI 1·0, 1·6; P<0·0001) and 1·5 ml (95 % CI 0·8, 2·3; P=0·0001) in AA (Prace difference=0·56). Among EA, the 25(OH)D–FVC association was stronger in smokers: per 1 nmol/l higher 25(OH)D, FVC was higher by 1·7 ml (95 % CI 1·1, 2·3) for current smokers and 1·7 ml (95 % CI 1·2, 2·1) for former smokers, compared with 0·8 ml (95 % CI 0·4, 1·2) for never smokers. In summary, the 25(OH)D associations with FEV1 and FVC were positive in both ancestries. In EA, a stronger association was observed for smokers compared with never smokers, which supports the importance of vitamin D in vulnerable populations.
OBJECTIVES/SPECIFIC AIMS: Our study seeks to answer the following questions: (1) To determine whether higher numbers of gravidity and parity are associated with a decreased risk of mild cognitive impairment or dementia; (2) To determine whether higher numbers of gravidity and parity are associated with a decreased risk of amyloid deposition by PET MRI. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: Our study population includes all female study participants in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study who did not have a diagnosis of dementia before enrollment. Participants were also required to have been evaluated for cognitive impairment in the ARIC-NCS ancillary study, or to have received an MRI PET scan of their brain as part of the ARIC-PET ancillary study. Baseline information on the gravidity and parity of all the women was recorded at initial enrollment. We use statistical analyses and epidemiological measures to explore our study questions. For our first question, we use logistic regression to evaluate the association of gravidity and parity as two separate ordinal variables using adjudicated mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and dementia. For our second question, we use logistic regression to evaluate the association of gravidity and parity (again as ordinal variables) with amyloid positivity. We use STATA for our statistical analyses. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: We hypothesize that increased gravidity and parity will have either no effect or a protective effect against MCI, dementia, and amyloid deposition. Our preliminary analyses show that older age of a woman at first pregnancy and at first live birth are both positively correlated with increased incidence of cognitive impairment. No relationship was found between these surrogates of lifetime estrogen exposure and cerebral amyloid deposition. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE OF IMPACT: Multiple basic science and clinical research studies have shown that estrogen exposure has an effect on cognitive function, likely through a complex interplay of multiple physiologic systems. Our study expands the research in this area by using a large, established epidemiologic cohort to examine gravidity and parity as important factors in lifetime estrogen exposure as they relate to cognitive impairment and amyloid plaque deposition.
This article examines the connections between Asser's Life of King Alfred and the tenthcentury Welsh poem Armes Prydein Vawr. It studies the use of the place-name Santwic ‘Sandwich’ in Armes Prydein, and presents evidence that this form derives from a written source. An investigation of the sources containing this place-name before the late tenth century raises the distinct possibility that Asser's Life was the source drawn upon by the Welsh poet. Examination of the context in which Sandwich occurs in Asser and Armes Prydein highlights striking similarities in usage, strengthening the argument for a connection between the two texts. Further correspondences between these works are noted before discussing the potential implications of this new finding for our understanding of Asser (and his reception) and Armes Prydein more generally.
West Antarctic climate and surface mass balance (SMB) records are sparse. To fill this gap, regional atmospheric climate modelling is useful, providing that such models are employed at sufficiently high horizontal resolution and coupled with a snow model. Here we present the results of a high-resolution (5.5 km) regional atmospheric climate model (RACMO2) simulation of coastal West Antarctica for the period 1979–2015. We evaluate the results with available in situ weather observations, remote-sensing estimates of surface melt, and SMB estimates derived from radar and firn cores. Moreover, results are compared with those from a lower-resolution version, to assess the added value of the resolution. The high-resolution model resolves small-scale climate variability invoked by topography, such as the relatively warm conditions over ice-shelf grounding zones, and local wind speed accelerations. Surface melt and SMB are well reproduced by RACMO2. This dataset will prove useful for picking ice core locations, converting elevation changes to mass changes, for driving ocean, ice-sheet and coupled models, and for attributing changes in the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and shelves to changes in atmospheric forcing.
Bandelier National Monument (BNM) was created to protect an extraordinary inventory of archaeological resources carved in the Tshirege Member of the Bandelier Tuff. These include more than one thousand excavated chambers, called cavates, used for dwelling, storage, and textile production. The glass-rich tuffs at the base of the Tshirege Member are poorly consolidated and susceptible to erosion by wind, rain, and mechanical abrasion, with resultant loss of cultural material. However, rock surfaces develop protective weathering rinds that are resistant to erosion. Using optical microscopy, SEM-EDS, XRD, and electron microprobe analysis, we determined that this rind consists of clay and silt sediments colonized by lichens and other surface biota, accompanied by the precipitation of secondary minerals in the near-surface pore space. Scoping experiments focused on glass-organic acid interactions indicate that oxalic acid excreted by microbial crust constituents catalyzes biogeochemical reactions that lead to the preferential dissolution of Si, Al, and Fe components of the volcanic glass; these cations become available for precipitation of opal, and smectite and sepiolite clays. Enzyme assays that quantify biological activity at outcrop surfaces indicate that microbial populations initially thrive as they derive nutrients from the dissolution reactions of the glass, but activity starts to decline as precipitation of secondary minerals limits access to new sources of nutrients, so that alteration processes are self-limiting. As case hardening progresses, imbibition rates at the surface decrease, and the erosion resistance of the altered surfaces is substantially improved. This article presents summary results of research conducted over a period of five years to characterize the roles of lichens and other microflora in rind formation, and the resulting contributions to tuff stability. The interaction of lichens and other microflora with rock surfaces in archaeological sites and monuments is usually explored in terms of biodeterioration and consequent damage. However, this study shows that, under some circumstances, lichens and microflora provide a level of erosion protection to relatively porous and unconsolidated rock strata that outweighs their biodeteriorative effects.
Extensive marine terraces along the North Canterbury coast of the South Island of New Zealand record uplift in this tectonically active area. Although the terraces have been studied previously, applications of Quaternary geochronological techniques to the region have been limited. We use infrared-stimulated luminescence (IRSL), amino acid racemization (AAR), and radiocarbon to determine ages of terraces at three locations—Glenafric, Motunau Beach, and Haumuri Bluff. We develop an AAR calibration curve for the mollusk species Tawera spissa from sites of known age, including the sedimentary sequence of the Whanganui Basin. Bayesian model averaging of the results is used to estimate ages of marine shells from the North Canterbury terraces. By using both IRSL and AAR, we are able to confirm ages using two independent dating methods and to identify one IRSL result that is likely in error. We develop new age estimates for the marine terraces of North Canterbury and propose correlations between sites. This terrace chronology differs significantly from most previous studies, highlighting the importance of numerical dating. The most extensive terraces are from marine isotope stages (MISs) 5a and 5c, with partial reoccupation of one terrace during MIS 3, whereas MIS 5e terraces are notably lacking among those dated.
This paper presents the first major data release and survey description for the ANU WiFeS SuperNovA Programme. ANU WiFeS SuperNovA Programme is an ongoing supernova spectroscopy campaign utilising the Wide Field Spectrograph on the Australian National University 2.3-m telescope. The first and primary data release of this programme (AWSNAP-DR1) releases 357 spectra of 175 unique objects collected over 82 equivalent full nights of observing from 2012 July to 2015 August. These spectra have been made publicly available via the WISEREP supernova spectroscopy repository.
We analyse the ANU WiFeS SuperNovA Programme sample of Type Ia supernova spectra, including measurements of narrow sodium absorption features afforded by the high spectral resolution of the Wide Field Spectrograph instrument. In some cases, we were able to use the integral-field nature of the Wide Field Spectrograph instrument to measure the rotation velocity of the SN host galaxy near the SN location in order to obtain precision sodium absorption velocities. We also present an extensive time series of SN 2012dn, including a near-nebular spectrum which both confirms its ‘super-Chandrasekhar’ status and enables measurement of the sub-solar host metallicity at the SN site.
Stonehenge is a site that continues to yield surprises. Excavation in 2009 added a new and unexpected feature: a smaller, dismantled stone circle on the banks of the River Avon, connected to Stonehenge itself by the Avenue. This new structure has been labelled ‘Bluestonehenge’ from the evidence that it once held a circle of bluestones that were later removed to Stonehenge. Investigation of the Avenue closer to Stonehenge revealed deep periglacial fissures within it. Their alignment on Stonehenge's solstitial axis (midwinter sunset–midsummer sunrise) raises questions about the early origins of this ritual landscape.
Nitrous oxide (N2O) is a potent greenhouse gas with implication
for climate change. Agriculture accounts for 10% of all greenhouse gas
emissions in the United States, but 75% of the country's N2O
emissions. In the absence of PRE herbicides, weeds compete with soybean for
available soil moisture and inorganic N, and may reduce N2O
emissions relative to a weed-free environment. However, after weeds are
killed with a POST herbicide, the dead weed residues may stimulate
N2O emissions by increasing soil moisture and supplying carbon
and nitrogen to microbial denitrifiers. Wider soybean rows often have more
weed biomass, and as a result, row width may further impact how weeds
influence N2O emissions. To determine this relationship, field
studies were conducted in 2013 and 2014 in Arlington, WI. A two-by-two
factorial treatment structure of weed management (PRE + POST vs. POST-only)
and row width (38 or 76 cm) was arranged in a randomized complete block
design with four replications. N2O fluxes were measured from
static gas sampling chambers at least weekly starting 2 wk after planting
until mid-September, and were compared for the periods before and after weed
termination using a repeated measures analysis. N2O fluxes were
not influenced by the weed by width
interaction or width before termination, after termination,
or for the full duration of the study at P ≤ 0.05. Interestingly, we
observed that POST-only treatments had lower fluxes on the sampling day
immediately prior to POST application (P = 0.0002), but this was the only
incidence where weed influenced N2O fluxes, and
overall, average fluxes from PRE + POST and POST-only treatments were not
different for any period of the study. Soybean yield was not influenced by
width (P = 0.6018) or weed by
width (P = 0.5825), but yield was 650 kg ha−1
higher in the PRE + POST than POST-only treatments (P = 0.0007). These
results indicate that herbicide management strategy does not influence
N2O emissions from soybean, and the use of a PRE herbicide
prevents soybean yield loss.
Radiological terror presents a real threat, but little is known about how low-income, urban African Americans may respond to such threats. The aim of this study was to understand the unique challenges of this group and to explore their knowledge of what a “dirty bomb” is, their intended behaviors should one occur, and their barriers to complying with “shelter in place” recommendations.
Thirty-seven 18-65-year-olds who were users of community centers in disadvantaged areas participated in 3 focus groups in Philadelphia. Results were analyzed by using the Krueger method of analyzing narrative text.
The responses highlighted little knowledge or concern about a dirty bomb. Lack of trust in local authorities was expressed, with participants indicating that they did not feel their needs were addressed. While shelter in place was understood, most said they would still check on family or talk with others to get the “whole truth” because the most trusted information sources were neighbors and community leaders.
Our results indicate that a risk communication intervention for urban minorities may support desirable behaviors in the event of a dirty bomb, but successful communication will require establishing a local leader as a spokesperson to convince people of the importance of sheltering in place.(Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2015;0:1-10)