Bølstad and Dinas (2017) propose a model of spatial voting, based on social identity theory, that suggests supporting a candidate/policy on the other side of the ideological spectrum has a disutility that is not accounted for by common spatial models. Unfortunately, the data they use cannot speak directly to whether the disutility arises because individuals perceive their ideology as a social identity. We present the results of an experimental study that measures the norm against crossing the ideological spectrum; tests the cost of doing so, controlling for spatial effects; and demonstrates that this cost increases with the salience and strength of identity norms. By demonstrating the norm mechanism for the disutility of crossing the ideological spectrum, we provide strong support for B&D's model.

The papers in this symposium use Monte Carlo simulations to demonstrate the consequences of estimating time series models with variables that are of different orders of integration. In this summary, I do the following: very briefly outline what we learn from the papers; identify an apparent contradiction that might increase, rather than decrease, confusion around the concept of a balanced time series model; suggest a resolution; and identify a few areas of research that could further increase our understanding of how variables with different dynamics might be combined. In doing these things, I suggest there is still a lack of clarity around how a research practitioner demonstrates balance, and demonstrates what Pickup and Kellstedt (2021) call I(0) balance.

It is understood that ensuring equation balance is a necessary condition for a valid model of times series data. Yet, the definition of balance provided so far has been incomplete and there has not been a consistent understanding of exactly why balance is important or how it can be applied. The discussion to date has focused on the estimates produced by the general error correction model (GECM). In this paper, we go beyond the GECM and beyond model estimates. We treat equation balance as a theoretical matter, not merely an empirical one, and describe how to use the concept of balance to test theoretical propositions before longitudinal data have been gathered. We explain how equation balance can be used to check if your theoretical or empirical model is either wrong or incomplete in a way that will prevent a meaningful interpretation of the model. We also raise the issue of “ $I(0)$ balance” and its importance.

Conventional OLS fixed-effects and GLS random-effects estimators of dynamic models that control for individual-effects are known to be biased when applied to short panel data (T ≤ 10). GMM estimators are the most used alternative but are known to have drawbacks. Transformed-likelihood estimators are unused in political science. Of these, orthogonal reparameterization estimators are only tangentially referred to in any discipline. We introduce these estimators and test their performance, demonstrating that the unused orthogonal reparameterization estimator in particular performs very well and is an improvement on the commonly used GMM estimators. When T and/or N are small, it provides efficiency gains and overcomes the issues GMM estimators encounter in the estimation of long-run effects when the coefficient on the lagged dependent variable is close to one.

The novel coronavirus reached the United States and Canada almost at the same time. The first reported American case was January 20, 2020, and in Canada it was January 15, 2020 (Canada, 2020; Holshue et al., 2020). Yet, the response to this crisis has been different in the two countries. In the US, President Donald Trump, prominent Republicans, and conservative media initially dismissed the dangers of COVID-19 (Stecula, 2020). The pandemic became politicized from the early days, and even though Trump and Republicans have walked back many of their initial claims, there continue to be media reports of partisan differences in public opinion shaped by that early response. At the same time, the response in Canada has been mostly characterized by across-the-board partisan consensus among political elites (Merkley et al., 2020).

Decades of research have established the direct influence of partisanship on voter perception of a host of real-world conditions. Even so, numerous factors have been found to moderate this “partisan bias.” We examine one plausible moderator: the volume of perceptually relevant information that is available in the mass media. Both dissonance-theoretic and motivated-reasoning formulations of partisan bias in political perception suggest that the availability of perceptually relevant information may constrain perceptual bias. Yet this proposition has rarely been investigated systematically. This article investigates the moderation of partisan bias by informational conditions, focusing on the impact of economic news on economic perceptions during five Canadian general elections (1993–2006). Although the overall pattern is mixed, evidence suggests that bias reduction in response to information depends on the broader economic and political context.

What are the lessons of the 2016 referendum on UK membership of the European Union (EU) regarding the effects of message framing? This article reports findings from an innovative online survey experiment based on a two-wave panel design. The findings show that, despite the expectation that campaign effects are generally small for high-salience issues – such as Brexit – the potential for campaign effects was high for the pro-EU frames. This suggests that within an asymmetrical information environment – in which the arguments for one side of an issue (anti-EU) are ‘priced in’, while arguments for the other side (pro-EU) have been understated – the potential for campaign effects in a single direction are substantial. To the extent that this environment is reflected in other referendum campaigns, the potential effect of pro-EU frames may be substantial.

In this research note we replicate, update and expand innovative research by Sniderman et al. conducted in the Netherlands in the late 1990s, and ask whether the relative primacy of cultural compared with economic and safety threats in explaining ethnic prejudice remains true under markedly different national, economic and political contexts. Using two national British surveys conducted in 2011 and 2016, we examine the impact of threat on hostility toward three minority groups. Our results confirm the primacy of cultural threat as the strongest and most consistent predictor of hostility, while demonstrating the more context-specific effects of safety and economic concerns, with safety threats playing an overall more prominent role and increased economic concerns being related to less hostility post-Brexit.

Regular physical activity is an important means of promoting health, both in people and their pets. Walking is the most common method used for dogs, but there is a lack of clarity on how much daily activity different breeds of dog require. Data from an online survey of UK dog owners were collected between June and August in 2014. The University of Liverpool Ethics Committee approved the project, and owners consented to data use. The initial dataset (17 028 dogs) was first cleaned to remove erroneous data, and then edited to remove mixed breed dogs, leaving a total of 12 314 dogs from known pedigree breeds. Other information collected included sex, age, neuter status, breed, and amount and frequency of exercise. Exercise frequency and duration were estimated across different breeds, and compared with Kennel Club recommendations, using χ2 tests and binary logistic regression. The online survey data indicated differences amongst breeds in the amount of walking reported (P < 0·001). Afghan hounds were the least exercised breed, whilst breeds reportedly exercised most included: English setter, foxhound, Irish setter and Old English sheepdog. Gundogs were most likely to be walked once per d or more (P < 0·001), whilst smaller dogs were more likely to meet their UK Kennel Club guidelines for dog walking (P < 0·001). The frequency of dog walking varies both within and amongst breeds, and many do not currently receive the recommended amount of exercise. This may constitute a canine welfare problem and also have an impact on the physical activity levels of their owners.

In this paper, we initiate a discussion within the Canadian political science community about research openness and its implications for our discipline. This discussion is important because the Tri-Agency has recently released guidelines on data management and because a number of political science journals, from several subfields, have signed the Journal Editors’ Transparency Statement requiring data access and research transparency (DA-RT). As norms regarding research openness develop, an increasing number and range of journals and funding agencies may begin to implement DA-RT-type requirements. If Canadian political scientists wish to continue to participate in the global political science community, we must take careful note of and be proactive participants in the ongoing developments concerning research openness.

Abstract. Although “horserace journalism” is thought to be central to contemporary election news coverage and has generated a great deal of criticism, there is no general model of the nature and dynamics of horserace journalism or “poll reporting.” This paper proposes and empirically evaluates such a model. The model builds on and extends John Zaller's “theory of media politics” to consider specifically what citizens demand from polls and what journalists supply. Aside from the generic motivations of politicians, citizens and journalists, the model emphasizes the unique features of polls as objects of news coverage. The paper finds considerable support for the model in an analysis of newspaper coverage of horserace polls (that is, vote intention polls) in the Canadian general election of 2006. Our findings from this one case have potentially broad implications for our understanding of the relationship between polls and electoral democracy both empirically and normatively.

Résumé. Même si le journalisme de course (“horserace journalism”) est vu comme étant une composante centrale de la couverture électorale et qu'il a généré sa part de critiques, il n'existe pas de modèle général de la nature et de la dynamique de ce type de journalisme. Cet article propose, et évalue empiriquement, un tel modèle. Prenant comme point de départ la « Theory of Media Politics » de John Zaller, ce modèle considère plus spécifiquement ce que les citoyens demandent des sondages et ce que les journalistes leurs procurent. Au-delà des motivations génériques des politiciens, citoyens et journalistes, le modèle met l'accent sur les caractéristiques uniques des sondages en tant qu'objet de couverture journalistique. L'article présente des résultats supportant considérablement le modèle à travers une analyse de la couverture des sondages par les journaux (c'est-à-dire des sondages sur les intentions de vote) durant l'élection générale canadienne de 2006. Nos résultats émanant de ce cas ont potentiellement des implications beaucoup plus grandes pour notre compréhension de la relation entre les sondages et la démocratie électorale, à la fois sur le plan empirique et sur le plan normatif.

Abstract. Using time series, cross-sectional econometric modelling, an analysis is made of competing political and economic determinants of Canadian provincial government fiscal policy during the 1980s and 1990s. It is determined that provincial government spending responses to trade liberalization are dependent upon the ideology of the government and conditioned by the degree of provincial unionization. When relatively high levels of unionization prevail, those governments that typically spend the most reduce total spending to a lowest common denominator. However, when unionization is low, provincial government spending responses to increasing trade openness is primarily compensatory. This is in contradiction to the “race to the bottom” theory. The contingent nature of the provincial government spending response to trade openness means that despite overall pressures for fiscal convergence, political, economic and regional factors continue to contribute to distinct provincial spending policies.

Résumé. Cet article utilise une modélisation économétrique transversale en série chronologique pour analyser les déterminants politiques et économiques en compétition au niveau de la politique fiscale du gouvernement provincial canadien durant les années 1980 et 1990. Il est établi qu'en termes de dépenses publiques, les réactions du gouvernement provincial face à la libéralisation des échanges sont tributaires de l'idéologie du gouvernement et déterminées par le niveau de syndicalisation provincial. Lorsque le niveau de syndicalisation est relativement élevé, ce sont les gouvernements provinciaux qui dépensent le plus qui réduisent leurs dépenses totales au plus bas dénominateur commun. Par contre, plus le niveau de syndicalisation est bas, plus les dépenses publiques face à la libéralisation des échanges sont principalement compensatoires. Cela vient contredire la théorie du “ nivellement par le bas ”. La nature conditionnelle de la réaction du gouvernement provincial en termes de dépenses publiques signifie qu'en dépit des pressions globales pour la convergence fiscale, des facteurs politiques, économiques et régionaux continuent de contribuer aux politiques de dépenses publiques distinctes.

To understand amorphous and structurally disordered materials requires the application of a wide-range of advanced physical probe techniques and herein a combined methodology is outlined. The relatively short-range structural sensitivity of solid state NMR means that it is a core probe technique for characterizing such materials. The aspects of the solid state NMR contribution are emphasized here with examples given from a number of systems, with especial emphasis on the information available from 17O NMR in oxygen-containing materials. 17O NMR data for crystallization of pure sol-gel prepared oxides is compared, with new data presented from In2O3 and Sc2O3. Sol-gel formed oxide mixtures containing silica have been widely studied, but again the role and effect of the other added oxide varies widely. In a ternary ZrO2-TiO2-SiO2 silicate sol-gel the level of Q4 formation is dependent not only on the composition, as expected, but also the nature of the second added oxide. Sol-gel formed phosphates have been much less widely studied than silicates and some 31P NMR data from xerogel, sonogel and melt-quench glasses of the same composition are compared. The effect of small amounts of added antibacterial copper on phosphate glass networks is also explored.

Abstract. We investigate the nature of civic community and social capital in Alberta. We find a civic community with high levels of interpersonal trust and civic participation, that values formal political equality and direct participation, yet expresses high levels of alienation from and low levels of confidence in its governments. While exogenous variables contribute to a strong civic community, only endogenous variables can account for the comparatively higher levels of participation and trust. Using a model developed by John Brehm and Wendy Rahn, we discover a virtuous circle between trust and participation, with its roots in the agrarian, populist past of the province. Economic and social changes have helped sustain this pattern, as have politicians bent on using it to defend Alberta's exceptionalism.

Résumé. Nous examinons la nature de la communauté civique et du capital social en Alberta. Nous y trouvons une communauté civique riche en confiance interpersonnelle et en participation civique et trés attachée à la fois à l'égalité politique formelle et à la participation directe. Cette communauté exprime cependant un profond sentiment d'aliénation et de méfiance à l'égard de ses gouvernements. Alors que des variables exogènes contribuent au développement d'une communauté civique vigoureuse, seules les variables endogènes peuvent expliquer les niveaux relativement élevés de participation et de confiance. En nous servant du modèle développé par John Brehm et Wendy Rahn, nous avons découvert une relation circulaire “ vertueuse ” entre la confiance et la participation, ayant des racines dans le passé agraire et populiste de la province. Les changements économiques et sociaux ont aidé à promouvoir ce modèle comme le font aussi les politiciens enclins à défendre l'exceptionalisme albertain.