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Health system preparedness for COVID-19 includes projecting the number and timing of cases requiring various types of treatment. Several tools were developed to assist in this planning process. This review highlights models that project both caseload and hospital capacity requirements over time.
We systematically reviewed the medical and engineering literature according to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. We completed searches using PubMed, EMBASE, ISI Web of Science, Google Scholar and the Google search engine.
The search strategy identified 690 articles. For detailed review, we selected six models that met our pre-defined criteria. Half of the models did not include age-stratified parameters, and only one included the option to represent a second wave. Hospital patient flow was simplified in all models; however, some considered more complex patient pathways. One model included fatality ratios with Length of Stay (LOS) adjustments for survivors versus those who die, and accommodated different LOS for critical care patients with or without a ventilator.
The results of our study provide information to physicians, hospital administrators, emergency response personnel and governmental agencies on available models for preparing scenario-based plans for responding to the COVID-19 or similar type of outbreak.
To elucidate mechanisms across family function, home environment and eating behaviours within sociocultural context among Hispanic youth.
Two models tested via path analysis (youth fruit and vegetable (FV) consumption; empty energy consumption) using data from the Study of Latino Youth (2011–2013).
Chicago, IL; Miami, FL; Bronx, NY; San Diego, CA.
Youth (8–16-year-olds), n 1466.
Youth ate 2·4 servings of FV per d and received 27 % of total energy from empty energies. Perceiving higher acculturative stress was indirectly associated with lower FV consumption via a pathway of low family function and family support for FV (β = −0·013, P < 0·001) and via lower family closeness and family support (β = −0·004, P = 0·004). Being >12-year-olds was indirectly associated with lower FV consumption via lower family closeness and family support (β = −0·006, P < 0·001). Household food security was indirectly associated with greater FV consumption via family closeness and family support (β = 0·005, P = 0·003). In contrast, perceiving higher acculturative stress was indirectly associated with higher empty energy consumption (via family closeness and family support: β = 0·003, P = 0·028 and via low family function and low family support: β = 0·008, P = 0·05). Being older was associated with higher consumption of empty energies via family closeness (related to family support: β = 0·04, P = 0·016; parenting strategies for eating: β = 0·002, P = 0·049).
Findings suggest pathways of influence across demographic and sociocultural context, family dynamics and home environment. The directionality of these associations needs confirmation using longitudinal data.
Radiocarbon (14C) ages cannot provide absolutely dated chronologies for archaeological or paleoenvironmental studies directly but must be converted to calendar age equivalents using a calibration curve compensating for fluctuations in atmospheric 14C concentration. Although calibration curves are constructed from independently dated archives, they invariably require revision as new data become available and our understanding of the Earth system improves. In this volume the international 14C calibration curves for both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, as well as for the ocean surface layer, have been updated to include a wealth of new data and extended to 55,000 cal BP. Based on tree rings, IntCal20 now extends as a fully atmospheric record to ca. 13,900 cal BP. For the older part of the timescale, IntCal20 comprises statistically integrated evidence from floating tree-ring chronologies, lacustrine and marine sediments, speleothems, and corals. We utilized improved evaluation of the timescales and location variable 14C offsets from the atmosphere (reservoir age, dead carbon fraction) for each dataset. New statistical methods have refined the structure of the calibration curves while maintaining a robust treatment of uncertainties in the 14C ages, the calendar ages and other corrections. The inclusion of modeled marine reservoir ages derived from a three-dimensional ocean circulation model has allowed us to apply more appropriate reservoir corrections to the marine 14C data rather than the previous use of constant regional offsets from the atmosphere. Here we provide an overview of the new and revised datasets and the associated methods used for the construction of the IntCal20 curve and explore potential regional offsets for tree-ring data. We discuss the main differences with respect to the previous calibration curve, IntCal13, and some of the implications for archaeology and geosciences ranging from the recent past to the time of the extinction of the Neanderthals.
In this paper the configurations of shock wave–boundary layer interactions (SWBLI) are studied theoretically and experimentally in Mach number 2 and 2.5 flows on test models with various wedge angles ranging from
. The proposed theoretical method couples the free interaction theory (FIT) with the minimum entropy production (MEP) principle to predict the appearance of separation shock, resulting in convex, straight and concave separation shock waves according to different solution combinations, which agree well with current experiments. Additionally, several influences on SWBLI are studied experimentally, in which the parameters related to theoretical solutions are found mostly determining the flow configuration, and SWBLI is much more sensitive to incident shock strength than incoming flow properties. Separation could be suppressed by incident shock when the MEP solution is smaller than the FIT, while it could be intensified when the MEP solution is larger than FIT; by contrast, the effects of separation position and model mounting height could be very weak.
Phytase has long been used to decrease the inorganic phosphorus (Pi) input in poultry diet. The current study was conducted to investigate the effects of Pi supplementation on laying performance, egg quality and phosphate–calcium metabolism in Hy-Line Brown laying hens fed phytase. Layers (n = 504, 29 weeks old) were randomly assigned to seven treatments with six replicates of 12 birds. The corn–soybean meal-based diet contained 0.12% non-phytate phosphorus (nPP), 3.8% calcium, 2415 IU/kg vitamin D3 and 2000 FTU/kg phytase. Inorganic phosphorus (in the form of mono-dicalcium phosphate) was added into the basal diet to construct seven experimental diets; the final dietary nPP levels were 0.12%, 0.17%, 0.22%, 0.27%, 0.32%, 0.37% and 0.42%. The feeding trial lasted 12 weeks (hens from 29 to 40 weeks of age). Laying performance (housed laying rate, egg weight, egg mass, daily feed intake and feed conversion ratio) was weekly calculated. Egg quality (egg shape index, shell strength, shell thickness, albumen height, yolk colour and Haugh units), serum parameters (calcium, phosphorus, parathyroid hormone, calcitonin and 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D), tibia quality (breaking strength, and calcium, phosphorus and ash contents), intestinal gene expression (type IIb sodium-dependent phosphate cotransporter, NaPi-IIb) and phosphorus excretion were determined at the end of the trial. No differences were observed on laying performance, egg quality, serum parameters and tibia quality. Hens fed 0.17% nPP had increased (P < 0.01) duodenum NaPi-IIb expression compared to all other treatments. Phosphorus excretion linearly increased with an increase in dietary nPP (phosphorus excretion = 1.7916 × nPP + 0.2157; R2 = 0.9609, P = 0.001). In conclusion, corn–soybean meal-based diets containing 0.12% nPP, 3.8% calcium, 2415 IU/kg vitamin D3 and 2000 FTU/kg phytase would meet the requirements for egg production in Hy-Line Brown laying hens (29 to 40 weeks of age).
To understand hospital policies and practices as the COVID-19 pandemic accelerated, the Society for Healthcare Epidemiology of America (SHEA) conducted a survey through the SHEA Research Network (SRN). The survey assessed policies and practices around the optimization of personal protection equipment (PPE), testing, healthcare personnel policies, visitors of COVID-19 patients in relation to procedures, and types of patients. Overall, 69 individual healthcare facilities responded in the United States and internationally, for a 73% response rate.
Yushu Prefecture in Qinghai Province provides some of the largest known stretches of habitat for the Vulnerable snow leopard Panthera uncia in China. People living in these areas are dependent on agropastoralism. Support from local communities is necessary for effective long-term conservation action for snow leopards, but loss of livestock to snow leopards can create financial burdens that induce negative attitudes and encourage retaliatory killing. We assessed factors driving herders' attitudes towards snow leopards and their conservation. We found that herders had higher agreement with positive than with negative statements about snow leopards despite nearly half reporting livestock loss to snow leopards within the last 5 years. No retaliatory killing was reported. Herders with more years of formal education and fewer livestock losses were more likely to have positive attitudes whereas those with lower importance of snow leopards to their religion, fewer livestock losses, and fewer years of education were more likely to have negative attitudes. Understanding the multifaceted mechanisms responsible for positive views towards species is imperative for reaching conservation goals. Our findings ascribe to the importance of increased education and adherence to Tibetan beliefs in promoting conservation tolerance towards snow leopards in Qinghai Province, but also indicate a need for further research into the impact of livestock loss.
Background: In patients with acute hip fracture, a fascia iliaca compartment block (FICB) has been shown to provide effective non-opioid analgesia, reduce the incidence of pneumonia, and potentially decrease the rate of delirium . However, this procedure was infrequently used in the St. Michael's Hospital (SMH) emergency department (ED). Aim Statement: Our aim was to increase the proportion of patients with hip fracture receiving FICB in the ED to 50% in six months. Measures & Design: We completed two Plan-Do-Study-Act (PDSA) cycles, measuring rates of FICB before and after each cycle. The first was a departmental rounds presentation with information about the process and benefits of FICB, addressing barriers identified by surveying the group. The second cycle included a bundle of interventions comprising of an “instruction card” with the steps required to do the procedure, access to a video tutorial, and a list of experienced physicians willing to help less experienced providers perform FICB. Evaluation/Results: In the three months prior to the project, the rate of FICB in the ED was 12.5% (3/24). For the three months after the first PDSA cycle, the rate increased to 22.2% (8/36). Then, the second cycle was performed. In the following two months the rate further increased to 36.8% (7/19). Discussion/Impact: Despite the clear increase in FICB rate, these changes were not statistically significant (p = 0.063). Our methodology was shown to be safe and effective, and our model can be applied to other ED groups looking to increase their rates of FICB.
Introduction: Several recent observational studies have presented concerning data regarding the safety of cardioversion (CV) for acute atrial fibrillation and flutter (AAFF). We conducted this systematic review to determine whether it is safe to cardiovert AAFF patients without prescribing oral anticoagulation (OAC) post-CV for those who are CHADS-65 negative. Methods: We conducted a librarian assisted search of MEDLINE, Embase, and Cochrane from inception through November 23, 2019. We included observational studies and randomized trials reporting thromboembolic (TE) events (i.e. stroke, transient ischemic attack, or systemic thromboembolism) within 30 days following CV in patients with AAFF, where onset of symptoms was <48 hours. Two reviewers independently screened studies and extracted data. The main outcome was risk of TE events within 30 days post-CV, stratified by OAC use. Risk of bias was assessed with the Quality in Prognostic Studies (QUIPS) tool. The primary analysis was based on prospective studies and the secondary analysis was based on retrospective studies. We performed meta-analyses for TE events where 2 or more studies were available, by applying the DerSimonian-Laird random-effects model. We implemented analyses stratified by study design using Open MetaAnalyst and generated the forest plots. Results: Our search yielded 969 titles; 74 were selected for full-text review and 20 studies were included in the review. The primary meta-analysis of 6 prospective studies, including two randomized trials, found a TE event rate of 0.15% (2 TE events/1,314 CVs). Within this prospective group, lack of OAC use was associated with a decreased risk of TE events (RR = 2.15 where RR >1 indicates increased risk of TE events with OAC compared to no OAC; 95% CI 0.50 to 9.31; I2 = 0%). Five of the 6 prospective studies had a low or moderate risk of bias in all QUIPS domains. Secondary meta-analysis of 6 retrospective studies revealed a TE event rate of 0.53% (56 TE events/10,521 CVs). This subgroup showed a trend favouring OAC use with decreased risk of TE events (RR = 0.34 where RR <1 suggests decreased risk of TE events with OAC; 95% CI 0.17 to 0.72; I2 = 0%). Conclusion: In the primary analysis of prospective studies, we found a low TE event rate following CV of AAFF, irrespective of OAC use. This contradicts previous analyses of retrospective studies. Our study supports the longstanding practice of not necessarily prescribing OAC post-CV in the ED for AAFF patients who are CHADS-65 negative.
The volume of evidence from scientific research and wider observation is greater than ever before, but much is inconsistent and scattered in fragments over increasingly diverse sources, making it hard for decision-makers to find, access and interpret all the relevant information on a particular topic, resolve seemingly contradictory results or simply identify where there is a lack of evidence. Evidence synthesis is the process of searching for and summarising a body of research on a specific topic in order to inform decisions, but is often poorly conducted and susceptible to bias. In response to these problems, more rigorous methodologies have been developed and subsequently made available to the conservation and environmental management community by the Collaboration for Environmental Evidence. We explain when and why these methods are appropriate, and how evidence can be synthesised, shared, used as a public good and benefit wider society. We discuss new developments with potential to address barriers to evidence synthesis and communication and how these practices might be mainstreamed in the process of decision-making in conservation.
Little is known about medication adherence among Asians and Asian Americans in psychiatric treatment.
We conducted a systematic review of studies of Asian American and Asian patients with depression or schizophrenia to understand adherence rates and tools used to measure adherence.
A key word search of PubMED and PsycINFO, restricted to journal articles available in English or Chinese and published between 1960 and March 2010 was performed. Reference lists of studies meeting inclusion criteria were manually reviewed and content experts were consulted. Two investigators independently reviewed all identified publications for inclusion using predetermined criteria and a pilot tested data-abstraction form.
Of the 1520 journal articles retrieved, 10 met criteria for inclusion. Adherence rates among patients with schizophrenia ranged from 5–71%; adherence rates among patients with depression ranged from 16–67%. Adherence rates varied among Asian sub-populations: Chinese patients’ rates ranged from 6–56%; Taiwanese patients’ rate was 46–61%; Asian American patients’ rate was 16%; Japanese patients’ rate was 56–71%; and Singaporean patients’ rate was 4.3%. Adherence was measured by: self-report; blood levels; refill rates; chart review; or physician/nurse or family caregiver report.
Medication adherence rates varied across clinical populations and country of origin. Nearly all of the rates are lower than many clinicians would consider acceptable. A critical step to research on improving adherence will involve reaching consensus on how to measure rates.
We describe an ultra-wide-bandwidth, low-frequency receiver recently installed on the Parkes radio telescope. The receiver system provides continuous frequency coverage from 704 to 4032 MHz. For much of the band (
), the system temperature is approximately 22 K and the receiver system remains in a linear regime even in the presence of strong mobile phone transmissions. We discuss the scientific and technical aspects of the new receiver, including its astronomical objectives, as well as the feed, receiver, digitiser, and signal processor design. We describe the pipeline routines that form the archive-ready data products and how those data files can be accessed from the archives. The system performance is quantified, including the system noise and linearity, beam shape, antenna efficiency, polarisation calibration, and timing stability.
As an epigenetic modification, DNA methylation may reflect the interaction between genetic and environmental factors in the development of schizophrenia (SCZ). Catechol-O-methyltransferase (COMT) gene is a promising candidate gene of SCZ. In the present study, we investigate the association of COMT methylation with the risk of SCZ using bisulfite pyrosequencing technology. Significant association between DNA methylation of COMT and the risk of SCZ is identified (P = 1.618e−007). A breakdown analysis by gender shows that the significance is driven by males (P = 3.310e−009), but not by females. DNA methylation of COMT is not significantly associated with SCZ clinical phenotypes, including p300 and cysteine level. No interaction is found between COMT genotypes and the percent methylation of this gene. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve shows that DNA methylation of COMT is able to predict the SCZ risk in males (area under curve [AUC] = 0.802, P = 1.91e−007). The current study indicates the clinical value of COMT methylation as a potential male-specific biomarker in SCZ diagnosis.
Recent technological advances have led to unprecedented amounts of generated data that originate from the Web, sensor networks, and social media. Analytics in terms of defeasible reasoning – for example, for decision making – could provide richer knowledge of the underlying domain. Traditionally, defeasible reasoning has focused on complex knowledge structures over small to medium amounts of data, but recent research efforts have attempted to parallelize the reasoning process over theories with large numbers of facts. Such work has shown that traditional defeasible logics come with overheads that limit scalability. In this work, we design a new logic for defeasible reasoning, thus ensuring scalability by design. We establish several properties of the logic, including its relation to existing defeasible logics. Our experimental results indicate that our approach is indeed scalable and defeasible reasoning can be applied to billions of facts.
Uranium–35 wt.% zirconium (U–35 wt.% Zr) alloy was annealed for 1 h and 24 h at 650 °C and characterized to understand the early-stage microstructure evolution. Dendritic microstructure with fine (∼300 nm in length) α-U precipitates clustered between dendrite branches were observed in the 1-h annealed sample. After 24-h annealing at 650 °C, the α-U precipitates coarsened, and the dendritic microstructure disappeared because of microstructure homogenization. Furthermore, microchemical homogenization observed with energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy analysis suggests that α-U precipitates are approaching thermodynamic equilibrium in the 24-h annealed sample. The findings from this study have potential impacts on the manufacturing and computer modeling of metallic nuclear fuel.
In this note we use some
-congruences proved by the method of ‘creative microscoping’ to prove two conjectures on supercongruences involving central binomial coefficients. In particular, we confirm the
case of Conjecture 1.1 of Guo [‘Some generalizations of a supercongruence of Van Hamme’, Integral Transforms Spec. Funct.28 (2017), 888–899].
The fatty acid composition of chicken’s meat is largely influenced by dietary lipids, which are often used as supplements to increase dietary caloric density. The underlying key metabolites and pathways influenced by dietary oils remain poorly known in chickens. The objective of this study was to explore the underlying metabolic mechanisms of how diets supplemented with mixed or a single oil with distinct fatty acid composition influence the fatty acid profile in breast muscle of Qingyuan chickens. Birds were fed a corn-soybean meal diet supplemented with either soybean oil (control, CON) or equal amounts of mixed edible oils (MEO; soybean oil : lard : fish oil : coconut oil = 1 : 1 : 0.5 : 0.5) from 1 to 120 days of age. Growth performance and fatty acid composition of muscle lipids were analysed. LC-MS was applied to investigate the effects of CON v. MEO diets on lipid-related metabolites in the muscle of chickens at day 120. Compared with the CON diet, chickens fed the MEO diet had a lower feed conversion ratio (P < 0.05), higher proportions of lauric acid (C12:0), myristic acid (C14:0), palmitoleic acid (C16:1n-7), oleic acid (C18:1n-9), EPA (C20:5n-3) and DHA (C22:6n-3), and a lower linoleic acid (C18:2n-6) content in breast muscle (P < 0.05). Muscle metabolome profiling showed that the most differentially abundant metabolites are phospholipids, including phosphatidylcholines (PC) and phosphatidylethanolamines (PE), which enriched the glycerophospholipid metabolism (P < 0.05). These key differentially abundant metabolites – PC (14:0/20:4), PC (18:1/14:1), PC (18:0/14:1), PC (18:0/18:4), PC (20:0/18:4), PE (22:0/P-16:0), PE (24:0/20:5), PE (22:2/P-18:1), PE (24:0/18:4) – were closely associated with the contents of C12:0, C14:0, DHA and C18:2n-6 in muscle lipids (P < 0.05). The content of glutathione metabolite was higher with MEO than CON diet (P < 0.05). Based on these results, it can be concluded that the diet supplemented with MEO reduced the feed conversion ratio, enriched the content of n-3 fatty acids and modified the related metabolites (including PC, PE and glutathione) in breast muscle of chickens.
We aimed to comprehensively examine the association of breast-feeding, types and initial timing of complementary foods with adolescent cognitive development in low- and middle-income countries. We conducted a prospective cohort study of 745 adolescents aged 10–12 years who were born to women who participated in a randomised trial of prenatal micronutrient supplementation in rural Western China. An infant feeding index was constructed based on the current WHO recommendations. Full-scale intelligence quotient (FSIQ) was assessed and derived by the fourth edition of the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children. The duration of exclusive or any breast-feeding was not significantly associated with adolescent cognitive development. Participants who regularly consumed Fe-rich or Fe-fortified foods during 6–23 months of age had higher FSIQ than those who did not (adjusted mean differences 4·25; 95 % CI 1·99, 6·51). For cows’/goats’ milk and high protein-based food, the highest FSIQ was found in participants who initially consumed at 10–12 and 7–9 months, respectively. A strong dose–response relationship of the composite infant feeding index was also identified, with participants in the highest tertile of overall feeding quality having 3·03 (95 % CI 1·37, 4·70) points higher FSIQ than those in the lowest tertile. These findings suggest that appropriate infant feeding practices (breast-feeding plus timely introduction of appropriate complementary foods) were associated with significantly improved early adolescent cognitive development scores in rural China. In addition, improvement in Fe-rich or Fe-fortified foods complementary feeding may produce better adolescent cognitive development outcomes.
Enteric illness outbreaks are complex events, therefore, outbreak investigators use many different hypothesis generation methods depending on the situation. This scoping review was conducted to describe methods used to generate a hypothesis during enteric illness outbreak investigations. The search included five databases and grey literature for articles published between 1 January 2000 and 2 May 2015. Relevance screening and article characterisation were conducted by two independent reviewers using pretested forms. There were 903 outbreaks that described hypothesis generation methods and 33 papers which focused on the evaluation of hypothesis generation methods. Common hypothesis generation methods described are analytic studies (64.8%), descriptive epidemiology (33.7%), food or environmental sampling (32.8%) and facility inspections (27.9%). The least common methods included the use of a single interviewer (0.4%) and investigation of outliers (0.4%). Most studies reported using two or more methods to generate hypotheses (81.2%), with 29.2% of studies reporting using four or more. The use of multiple different hypothesis generation methods both within and between outbreaks highlights the complexity of enteric illness outbreak investigations. Future research should examine the effectiveness of each method and the contexts for which each is most effective in efficiently leading to source identification.
We describe the case of an 11-month-old girl with a rare cerebellar glioblastoma driven by a NACC2-NTRK2 (Nucleus Accumbens Associated Protein 2-Neurotrophic Receptor Tyrosine Kinase 2) fusion. Initial workup of our case demonstrated homozygous CDKN2A deletion, but immunohistochemistry for other driver mutations, including IDH1 R132H, BRAF V600E, and H3F3A K27M were negative, and ATRX was retained. Tissue was subsequently submitted for personalized oncogenomic analysis, including whole genome and whole transcriptome sequencing, which demonstrated an activating NTRK2 fusion, as well as high PD-L1 expression, which was subsequently confirmed by immunohistochemistry. Furthermore, H3 and IDH demonstrated wildtype status. These findings suggested the possibility of treatment with either NTRK- or immune checkpoint- inhibitors through active clinical trials. Ultimately, the family pursued standard treatment that involved Head Start III chemotherapy and proton radiotherapy. Notably, at most recent follow upapproximately two years from initial diagnosis, the patient is in disease remission and thriving, suggesting favorable biology despite histologic malignancy. This case illustrates the value of personalized oncogenomics, as the molecular profiling revealed two actionable changes that would not have been apparent through routine diagnostics. NTRK fusions are known oncogenic drivers in a range of cancer types, but this is the first report of a NACC2-NTRK2 fusion in a glioblastoma.
This presentation will enable the learner to:
1.Explore the current molecular landscape of pediatric high grade gliomas
2.Recognize the value of personalized oncogenomic analysis, particularly in rare and/or aggressive tumors
3.Discuss the current status of NTRK inhibitor clinical trials