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As the global population continues to age, effective management of longevity risk becomes increasingly critical for various stakeholders. Accurate mortality forecasting serves as a cornerstone for addressing this challenge. This study proposes to leverage Kernel Principal Component Analysis (KPCA) to enhance mortality rate predictions. By extending the traditional Lee-Carter model with KPCA, we capture nonlinear patterns and complex relationships in mortality data. The newly proposed KPCA Lee-Carter algorithm is empirically tested and demonstrates superior forecasting performance. Furthermore, the model’s robustness was tested during the COVID-19 pandemic, showing that the KPCA Lee-Carter algorithm effectively captures increased uncertainty during extreme events while maintaining narrower prediction intervals. This makes it a valuable tool for mortality forecasting and risk management. Our findings contribute to the growing body of literature where actuarial science intersects with statistical learning, offering practical solutions to the challenges posed by an aging world population.
Major psychiatric disorders (MPDs) are delineated by distinct clinical features. However, overlapping symptoms and transdiagnostic effectiveness of medications have challenged the traditional diagnostic categorisation. We investigate if there are shared and illness-specific disruptions in the regional functional efficiency (RFE) of the brain across these disorders.
Methods
We included 364 participants (118 schizophrenia [SCZ], 80 bipolar disorder [BD], 91 major depressive disorder [MDD], and 75 healthy controls [HCs]). Resting-state fMRI was used to caclulate the RFE based on the static amplitude of low-frequency fluctuation, regional homogeneity, and degree centrality and corresponding dynamic measures indicating variability over time. We used principal component analysis to obtain static and dynamic RFE values. We conducted functional and genetic annotation and enrichment analysis based on abnormal RFE profiles.
Results
SCZ showed higher static RFE in the cortico-striatal regions and excessive variability in the cortico-limbic regions. SCZ and MDD shared lower static RFE with higher dynamic RFE in sensorimotor regions than BD and HCs. We observed association between static RFE abnormalities with reward and sensorimotor functions and dynamic RFE abnormalities with sensorimotor functions. Differential spatial expression of genes related to glutamatergic synapse and calcium/cAMP signaling was more likely in the regions with aberrant RFE.
Conclusions
SCZ shares more regions with disrupted functional integrity, especially in sensorimotor regions, with MDD rather than BD. The neural patterns of these transdiagnostic changes appear to be potentially driven by gene expression variations relating to glutamatergic synapses and calcium/cAMP signaling. The aberrant sensorimotor, cortico-striatal, and cortico-limbic integrity may collectively underlie neurobiological mechanisms of MPDs.
We reported on an efficient high-power continuous-wave laser operation on the 3H4 → 3H5 transition of Tm3+ ions in a diffusion-bonded composite YVO4/Tm:GdVO4 crystal. Pumped by a laser diode at 794 nm, a maximum output power of 7.5 W was obtained from a YVO4/Tm:GdVO4 laser at 2.29 μm, corresponding to a slope efficiency of 40.3% and exceeding the Stokes limit. To the best of our knowledge, this result represents the maximum power ever achieved from a Tm laser at 2.3 μm.
The high-power narrow-linewidth fiber laser has become the most widely used high-power laser source nowadays. Further breakthroughs of the output power depend on comprehensive optimization of stimulated Brillouin scattering (SBS), stimulated Raman scattering (SRS) and transverse mode instability (TMI). In this work, we aim to further surpass the power record of all-fiberized and narrow-linewidth fiber amplifiers with near-diffraction-limited (NDL) beam quality. SBS is suppressed by white-noise-signal modulation of a single-frequency seed. In particular, the refractive index of the large-mode-area active fiber in the main amplifier is controlled and fabricated, which could simultaneously increase the effective mode field area of the fundamental mode and the loss coefficient of higher-order modes for balancing SRS and TMI. Subsequent experimental measurements demonstrate a 7.03 kW narrow-linewidth fiber laser with a signal-to-noise ratio of 31.4 dB and beam quality factors of Mx2 = 1.26, My2 = 1.25. To the best of our knowledge, this is the highest reported power with NDL beam quality based on a directly laser-diode-pumped and all-fiberized format, especially with narrow-linewidth spectral emission.
Text readability assessment aims to automatically evaluate the degree of reading difficulty of a given text for a specific group of readers. Most of the previous studies considered it as a classification task and explored a wide range of linguistic features to express the readability of a text from different aspects, such as semantic-based and syntactic-based features. Intuitively, when the external form of a text becomes more complex, individuals will experience more reading difficulties. Based on this motivation, our research attempts to separate the textual external form from the text and investigate its efficiency in determining readability. Specifically, in this paper, we introduce a new concept, namely textual form complexity, to provide a novel insight into text readability. The main idea is that the readability of a text can be measured by the degree to which it is challenging for readers to overcome the distractions of external textual form and obtain the text’s core semantics. To this end, we propose a set of textual form features to express the complexity of the outer form of a text and characterize its readability. Findings show that the proposed external textual form features can be used as effective evaluation indexes to indicate the readability of text. It brings a new perspective to the existing research and provides a new complement to the existing rich features.
Despite mounting evidence linking neurological diseases with climate change, the link between autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and global warming has yet to be explored.
Aims
To examine the relationship between the incidence of ASD and global warming from 1990 to 2019 and estimate the trajectory of ASD incidence from 2020 to 2100 globally.
Method
We extracted meteorological data from TerraClimate between 1990 and 2019. To estimate the association between global ASD incidence and temperature variation, we adopted a two-stage analysis strategy using a generalised additive regression model. Additionally, we projected future ASD incidence under four representative shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs: 126, 245, 370 and 585) by bootstrapping.
Results
Between 1990 and 2019, the global mean incidence of ASD in children under 5 years old was 96.9 per 100 000. The incidence was higher in males (147.5) than in females (46.3). A 1.0 °C increase in the temperature variation was associated with a 3.0% increased risk of ASD incidence. The association was stronger in boys and children living in a low/low-middle sociodemographic index region, as well as in low-latitude areas. According to the SSP585 scenario, by 2100, the children living in regions between 10 and 20° latitude, particularly in Africa, will experience a 68.6% increase in ASD incidence if the association remains. However, the SSP126 scenario is expected to mitigate this increase, with a less than 10% increase in incidence across all latitudes.
Conclusions
Our study highlights the association between climate change and ASD incidence worldwide. Prospective studies are warranted to confirm the association.
DatalogMTL is an extension of Datalog with metric temporal operators that has found an increasing number of applications in recent years. Reasoning in DatalogMTL is, however, of high computational complexity, which makes reasoning in modern data-intensive applications challenging. In this paper we present a practical reasoning algorithm for the full DatalogMTL language, which we have implemented in a system called MeTeoR. Our approach effectively combines an optimised (but generally non-terminating) materialisation (a.k.a. forward chaining) procedure, which provides scalable behaviour, with an automata-based component that guarantees termination and completeness. To ensure favourable scalability of the materialisation component, we propose a novel seminaïve materialisation procedure for DatalogMTL enjoying the non-repetition property, which ensures that each rule instance will be applied at most once throughout its entire execution. Moreover, our materialisation procedure is enhanced with additional optimisations which further reduce the number of redundant computations performed during materialisation by disregarding rules as soon as it is certain that they cannot derive new facts in subsequent materialisation steps. Our extensive evaluation supports the practicality of our approach.
The internal flow within an evaporating sessile droplet has intriguing fluid mechanics important to various microfluidics applications. In the present study, a phenomenon is observed through numerical methods wherein the buoyancy-driven flow structure inside a droplet on a non-wetting substrate transitions from an axisymmetric toroidal vortex flow to a non-axisymmetric single vortex flow with increase in the substrate temperature. As the axisymmetric nature of the droplet flow field and evaporation characteristics are broken, the internal velocity accelerates significantly. The transition, which is attributed to a flow instability inside the droplet, is more prone to occur as the droplet volume or the contact angle increases. The onset of the flow transition is analysed as the amplification of a small perturbation, thereby establishing a correlation between the flow instability and the Rayleigh number (Ra). Specifically, when Ra exceeds some critical value, the onset of the flow transition is observed, which explains the effects of substrate temperature and droplet volume on the internal flow. Next, the influence of the droplet contact angle on the critical Ra was investigated, and the underlying reasons were analysed. Finally, we discuss the heat transfer efficiency within the droplet and analyse why the internal flow tends to transition to a non-axisymmetric flow pattern from an energy minimization perspective.
Identification of sugarcane hybrids is difficult when selections are based solely on morphological traits. Our objective was to combine morphological traits and molecular marker analysis to select F1 hybrids from two separate crosses between Djatiroto, a clone of Saccharum spontaneum, and elite sugarcane clones, LCP 85-384 (Cross 97-3144) and CP 62-258 (Cross 97-3146). The maternal inflorescences of Djatiroto were emasculated by submersion in a circulating 45°C hot-water tank for 10 min to minimize self-fertilization. Cross 97-3144 produced 4.7 g of seeds with 338 viable seeds per gram and Cross 97-3146 produced 2.4 g of seeds with 166 viable seeds per gram. After greenhouse germination, 96 progeny from each cross were evaluated in a field plot. Evaluations were conducted on the ratoon crops for stalk diameter (mm), juice Brix (percentage soluble solids), and a randomly amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) marker OPA-11-366 that was reproducibly amplified through PCR from the elite clones, but not the maternal S. spontaneum clone. Fifty progeny (52.1%) from Cross 97-3144 and 36 progeny (37.5%) from Cross 97-3146 inherited the RAPD marker. Five putative F1 progeny were selected from each cross, namely US 99-43, US 99-44, US 99-45, US 99-46 and US 99-47 from Cross 97-3144, and US 99-48, US 99-49, US 99-50, US 99-51 and US 99-52 from Cross 97-3146, based on their relatively larger stalk diameter, higher Brix and inheritance of the RAPD marker. The hybrid nature of these selected progeny was verified with sugarcane microsatellite markers. This is the first report of the development of Saccharum hybrids with the cytoplasm of S. spontaneum for breeding purpose through a combination of conventional and molecular breeding approaches. Availability of these F1 hybrids could enhance the genetic diversity of Saccharum germplasm and has enabled sugarcane geneticists and breeders to explore the possible contribution of S. spontaneum cytoplasm in the development of new sugarcane cultivars.
The prospective association between sleep duration and the development of late-life depressive symptomology is unclear.
Aims
To investigate sleep duration from midlife to late life in relation to risk of depressive symptoms in late life.
Method
A total of 14 361 participants from the Singapore Chinese Health Study were included in the present study. Daily sleep duration was self-reported at baseline (mean age of 52.4 years; 1993–98), follow-up 2 (mean age of 65.2 years; 2006–10) and follow-up 3 (mean age of 72.5 years; 2014–16) interviews. Depressive symptoms were evaluated using the Geriatric Depression Scale at follow-up 3 interviews. Modified Poisson regression models were performed to estimate relative risks and 95% confidence intervals of late-life depressive symptoms in relation to sleep duration at baseline and the two follow-up interviews.
Results
Compared with sleeping 7 h per day, a short sleep duration of ≤5 h per day at baseline (i.e. midlife) was related to a higher risk of depressive symptoms (relative risk 1.10, 95% CI 1.06–1.15), and this risk was not affected by subsequent prolongation of sleep. Conversely, a long sleep duration of ≥9 h per day at baseline was not related to risk of depressive symptoms. At follow-up 3 (i.e. late life), both short sleep (relative risk 1.20, 95% CI 1.16–1.25) and long sleep (relative risk 1.12, 95% CI 1.07–1.18) duration were cross-sectionally associated with depressive symptoms.
Conclusion
Short sleep duration in midlife, regardless of subsequent prolongation, is associated with an increased risk of depression in late life. Contrariwise, both short and long sleep duration in late life co-occur with depressive symptoms.
Suppressing mode degradation is the key issue for high-power laser delivery; however, diagnosing mode degradation in its entirety, ranging from the contents and origins to locations, has always been a major obstacle. Here, a versatile approach for tracing the origins of mode coupling is demonstrated through addressing the differential intermodal dispersions of fiber modes. Full recognition for modal contents and the origins of mode degradation are experimentally completed in a two-mode fiber laser delivery system, which assists a significant improvement of beam quality M2 from 1.35 to 1.15 at the highest power of over 300 W. This method yields a quantitative characterization for manipulating the individual mode of dual-mode coupling origins or their combinations. This work points toward a promising strategy for the online tracing of mode coupling in cascade fiber links, thus enabling further pursuit of seeking extreme beam quality in high-power fiber laser systems.
Panax L., renowned as ginseng genus, is a famous medicinal group of family Araliaceae. Within this genus, the taxa of Panax bipinnatifidus complex are mainly distributed in Himalayas and Hengduan Mountain areas. Due to the complex evolutionary history and short-term rapid radiation, the relationships among species within the complex have not been clearly resolved, and the taxa identification is difficult due to the intermediate morphological traits. This study aimed to use the available restriction-site associated DNA sequence data from 29 individuals of P. bipinnatifidus complex to mine high-polymorphic simple sequence repeat (SSR) markers, with the goal of evaluating their utility in taxa identification. Eleven polymorphic SSR loci were ultimately selected and validated through polymerase chain reactions amplifying across 63 individuals of P. bipinnatifidus complex and 13 individuals of three outgroup species. The subsequent genetic diversity analysis uncovered 76 alleles in total, ranging from 5 to 15 per locus. Observed heterozygosity spanned 0.241–0.512, while expected heterozygosity ranged between 0.345 and 0.644. The genetic kinship analysis revealed a sister relationship between Panax zingiberensis and Panax vietnamensis. The analysis result also supported the classification of samples from Hunan and Hubei provinces into a single genetic unit within the P. bipinnatifidus complex. These newly developed SSR markers will facilitate the identification of wild ginseng plants.
Aphis gossypii is one of the most economically important agricultural pests that cause serious crop losses worldwide, and the indiscriminate chemical application causes resistance development in A. gossypii, a major obstacle to successful control. In this study, we selected the up-regulated expression gene AgJHAMT, which was enriched into juvenile hormone pathway though transcriptome sequencing analysis of the cotton aphids that fed on transgenic cotton lines expressing dsAgCYP6CY3 (the TG cotton). The AgJHAMT gene was overexpressed in cotton aphids which fed on the TG cotton, and its expression profile during the nymphs was clarified. Then, silencing AgJHAMT could advance the developmental period of cotton aphids by 0.5 days compared with control groups. The T and t values of cotton aphids in the dsJHAMT treatment group (6.88 ± 0.15, 1.65 ± 0.06) were significantly shorter than that of the sprayed H2O control group (7.6 ± 0.14, 1.97 ± 0.09) (P < 0.05), respectively. The fast growth caused by AgJHAMT silencing was rescued by applying the JH analogue, methoprene. Overall, these findings clarified the function of AgJHAMT in the developmental period of A. gossypii. This study contributes to further clarify the molecular mechanisms of delaying the growth and development of cotton aphids by the transgenic cotton lines expressing dsAgCYP6CY3.
Chinese characters hold great potential to help inform and enrich psycholinguistic research on lexical ambiguity as a large portion of them are ambiguous in nature with meaning varying from context to context. This report presents a psycholinguistic database that contains over 2000 characters with normative measures for meaning dominance and meaning balance, that is, the relative frequency of each meaning associated with a target character and the degree of balance across the meanings of the character. The measurement process takes advantage of the fact that, in Chinese, generating words containing a target character is the most convenient way to specify and disambiguate character meanings. Character meanings stored in ordinary people’s mental lexicon are identified based on the words, along with a small portion of meaning descriptions, listed by over 900 native speakers. The measures of meaning dominance and meaning balance for the characters are derived from computing the relative frequencies of the meanings. Potential research and practical applications of the database, as a valuable tool, to enhance our understanding of the acquisition, representation, and processing of ambiguous lexical items are discussed.
Research evidence has established an association of obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) with suicidal thoughts and suicide attempts. However, further investigation is required to determine whether individuals with OCD have higher risk of death by suicide compared with those without OCD.
Methods
Of the entire Taiwanese population, between 2003 and 2017, 56,977 individuals with OCD were identified; they were then matched at a 1:4 ratio with 227,908 non-OCD individuals on the basis of their birth year and sex. Suicide mortality was assessed between 2003 and 2017 for both groups. Time-dependent Cox regression models were used to investigate the difference in suicide risk between individuals with versus without OCD.
Results
After adjustment for major psychiatric comorbidities (i.e., schizophrenia, bipolar disorder and major depressive disorder), the OCD group had higher risk of suicide (hazard ratio: 1.97, 95% confidence interval: 1.57–2.48) during the follow-up compared with the comparison group. Furthermore, OCD severity, as indicated by psychiatric hospitalizations due to OCD, was positively correlated with suicide risk.
Conclusions
Regardless of the existence of major psychiatric comorbidities, OCD was found to be an independent risk factor for death by suicide. A suicide prevention program specific to individuals with OCD may be developed in clinical practice in the future.
The aim was to explore whether the time-lapse imaging system can help day-3 single cleavage embryo transfer to obtain comparative clinical outcomes to day-4 or 5. The data of 1237 patients who underwent single embryo transfer from January 1, 2018, to September 30, 2020, in our reproductive medicine centre were retrospectively analysed. They were divided into the day-3 single cleavage-stage embryo transfer (SCT) group (n = 357), day-4 single morula transfer (SMT) group (n = 129) and day-5 single blastocyst transfer (SBT) group (n = 751) according to the different embryo transfer stage. The clinical and perinatal outcomes of the three groups were analysed and compared. The clinical pregnancy rates of the patients in the day-3 SCT group, day-4 SMT group and day-5 SBT group were 68.07, 70.54 and 72.04%, respectively. The live birth rates were 56.86, 61.24 and 60.99%, respectively. The monozygotic twin (MZT) rate in the day-3 SCT group was significantly lower than that in the day-5 SBT group (P = 0.049). Regarding perinatal outcomes, only the secondary sex ratio had a significant difference (P < 0.05). After age stratification, no improvement was found in the pregnancy outcomes of patients >35 years of age receiving blastocyst transfer. Our findings suggest that for patients with multiple high-quality embryos on day-3, prolonging the culture time can improve the pregnancy outcome to some extent, but it will bring risks. For centres that have established morphodynamic models, day-3 SCT can also achieve an ideal pregnancy outcome and reduce the rate of monozygotic twins and sex ratio.
Coffee is one of the most popular beverages worldwide, and there is an increasing concern of the health risk of coffee consumption in pregnancy. Preeclampsia (PE) is a serious pregnancy disease that causes elevated blood pressure and proteinuria in pregnant women and growth restriction of fetuses due to poorly developed placental vasculature. The aim of our study is to investigate the possible effect of coffee intake during pregnancy in rats with potential underlying vasculature conditions. The endothelial nitric oxide synthase inhibitor N(gamma)-nitro-L-arginine methyl ester (L-NAME) at a high dose (125 mg/kg/d) was used to induce PE in pregnant rats, which were used as the positive control group. In addition, low-dose L-NAME (10 mg/kg/d) was used to simulate the compromised placental vasculature function in pregnant rats. Coffee was given together with low-dose L-NAME to the pregnant rats from gestational day 10.5–18.5. Our results show that the pregnant rats treated with low-dose L-NAME + coffee, but not low-dose L-NAME alone, developed PE symptoms such as prominent fetal growth restriction, hypertension, and proteinuria. Therefore, our findings suggest that coffee intake during pregnancy may cause an increased risk of PE in susceptible women.