This paper develops a formal model of the effect of time-varying asymmetric information on the timing and pricing of equity issues when managers are better informed than outside investors. We assume that as time passes, the adverse selection problem becomes more severe as more managers receive a private signal. Under this assumption, the model predicts temporal variation in the quantity of issues, with a bunching of issues after information releases. It also predicts that the price drop at issue announcement increases with the time since the last information release. These predictions are consistent with several recent empirical studies relating equity issues to earnings and dividend announcements.

We examine the determinants of cross-sectional differences in insider ownership, debt, and dividend policies. These policies are related not only directly, but also indirectly, through their relationship with operating characteristics of firms. To distinguish these effects, we examine the determinants of the three policy choices within a system of equations. Our empirical results support the hypothesis that levels of insider ownership differ systematically across firms. Further, high insider ownership firms choose lower levels of both debt and dividends. Finally, the effects of profitability, growth, and investment spending on debt and dividend policy support a modified “pecking order” hypothesis.

This paper extends the Palepu (1986) acquisition likelihood model by incorporating measures of insider and institutional shareholdings, by examining the deterrent effect of various takeover defenses, and by considering the effect of varying proportions of fixed (tangible) assets in a firm's total asset structure. We find that the probability of receiving a takeover bid is positively related to tangible assets, and negatively related to firm size and to the net change in institutional holdings. Blank-check preferred stock authorizations are the only common takeover defense significantly (negatively) correlated with acquisition likelihood.

This paper provides closed form solutions for futures and European futures options on pure discount bonds under the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (normal) process. A significant difference between Black's model (1976) and the model in this paper for futures options is discussed.

Assuming that individual investors account for most odd-lot transactions, we examine oddlot purchases and sales around the turn of the year and find a pattern that is related to the well-known January effect in stock returns. A significant change in the ratio of odd-lot sales to odd-lot purchases occurs at the turn of the year, which supports the hypothesis that the January effect results from trading by individual investors. The trading patterns that we find are not due entirely to tax considerations.

In a recent study, Tinic and West (1986) empirically reexamine the risk-return relationship posited by the traditional mean-variance CAPM. They find a positive nonlinear relationship between risk and return, except during January when the market rewards bearing nonsystematic risk. This study examines the hypothesis that nonnormality of return distributions may account for some of these anomalous results. We compare Shalit and Yitzhaki's (1984) mean-extended Gini CAPM—an equilibrium asset pricing relation that is independent of the form of the underlying asset distribution—with the traditional CAPM. Our results indicate that the nonlinear risk-return relationship and the size and January effects are robust to nonnormality of return distributions.

This study examines the average abnormal returns, average abnormal trading volume, and reported insider trading of corporate control target firms during a period of possibly informed trading. This period begins on the unpublicized initiation date (as reported in a postannouncement date proxy statement or 14-D1) and ends on the publication date of the first Wall Street Journal story signalling an impending change in corporate control. We find that the preannouncement date average abnormal return noted by other researchers begins after the unpublicized initiation date of the transaction. We find no evidence of the preannouncement date average abnormal trading volume noted by previous researchers; instead, we find average abnormal volume beginning with the first public information regarding the transaction.

Many empirical studies find that the distribution of stock returns departs from normality. In such cases, it is desirable to employ a statistical estimation procedure that may be more efficient than ordinary least squares. This paper describes various robust methods, which have attracted increasing attention in the statistical literature, in the context of estimating beta risk. The empirical analysis documents the potential efficiency gains from using robust methods as an alternative to ordinary least squares, based on both simulated and actual returns data.

Using data that contain bid and ask quotes for both options and stocks, the analysis investigates the constant volatility assumption of the Black-Scholes model. The analysis adjusts for bid-ask spreads and finds evidence that is inconsistent with the constant volatility assumption. Instead, the results reveal a strong negative correlation between volatility and stock price, and they suggest that using a nonconstant volatility model such as the CEV model would be more appropriate to price long-term options. Finally, transaction costs associated with the dynamic hedge tend to increase with an option's maturity, but decrease as a percentage of the option's price.

The much publicized Tylenol incident in 1982 led to stringent packaging regulations for over-the-counter pharmaceutical drugs. The sudden incident and the swift progression of associated events offer a unique opportunity to assess the wealth effects of the resultant regulations. The market value of common stock of Johnson & Johnson, makers of Tylenol, declined by approximately 29 percent, amounting to $2.31 billion. Although other firms in the industry also suffered significantly, their share price decline did not occur around the Tylenol incident but occurred around the subsequent packaging regulation proceedings. On average, 28 other pharmaceutical firms analyzed in this study experienced a decline of $310 million per firm, or a total of about $8.68 billion. The results suggest that the regulation had a significant negative effect on the common stock prices of firms in the pharmaceutical industry.

This paper examines holding period returns to constant duration portfolios of U.S. Government notes and bonds, and measures the return premium generated by liquidity differences in bonds. The approach compares constant duration portfolios constructed in two distinct ways: one using only bonds issued in the most recent Treasury auction, one using all other bonds. Comparisons of the resulting series are made meaningful by choosing narrow duration ranges in the portfolio formation procedure. This, in turn, induces a missing data problem in the created time series. Parameters of return distributions are therefore estimated employing a maximum likelihood framework that explicitly accounts for the missing data. It is estimated that recently issued bonds are priced to return a premium of around 55 basis points per annum over otherwise equivalent instruments.

Previous research has separately addressed the problem of estimating risk in the presence of infrequent trading and the problem of estimating quality-adjusted returns in markets with quality variation in the observed price series. This paper simultaneously addresses both problems by applying a signal extraction method for unequally spaced data to decompose the observed price series with varying times between transactions into a quality-adjusted, permanent component (which would be observable in the absence of quality variation) plus a stationary, transitory quality variation component. Stamp auction transaction prices provide an application. Auction quality grading is treated in a manner analogous to bond ratings. Almost all of the observed variance is attributed to the auction quality variation. The observed auction returns and stock index returns are not well related.

Current literature stresses that efficient funds do not exist when asset returns are continuously distributed. This paper shows that the existence of efficient funds can be restored if security returns are generated by a linear factor model.

This paper examines the relationships among capital regulation, deposit insurance, and the optimal bank interest margin. In a model where loan losses are the source of uncertainty, changes in capital regulation or deposit insurance premiums have direct effects on the bank's interest margin. An increase in bank capital requirement or in deposit insurance premiums results in a reduced interest margin under nonincreasing risk aversion. Comparative static analysis also explores the relation between asset quality and interest margin. It is shown that a mean-preserving spread of the distribution of loan losses results in a reduced margin.

This paper examines a dynamic production economy with incomplete information and shows that the set of myopic preferences, those that induce myopic decisions, depends on the representation of the information flow. For example, logarithmic preferences are nonmyopic when some of the economic state variables are unobservable. The analysis offers a broader definition of myopic behavior, termed “generalized myopia,” which is independent of the representation of the information flow. Allowing for any smooth concave utility function, logarithmic preferences endogenously emerge as necessary for generalized myopia in incomplete information economies; and when combined with restrictions on the information structure, they become sufficient.

This paper examines the temporal relationship between interest rates on Treasury securities ranging in maturity from three months to 30 years. We find strong empirical support that the seven Treasury rates selected are cointegrated, a conclusion that is insensitive to the normalization chosen. In particular, the hypothesis of noncointegration is rejected decisively regardless of the rate selected as the dependent variable in the cointegrating equation. To determine whether this information can be used to improve forecasts of Treasury rates, the seven rates are forecasted with a corresponding errorcorrection model that is shown to outperform an augmented VAR model that ignores the cointegration of the rates. The results are consistent with the belief that arbitrage limits the extent to which rates on different maturities of a given security diverge. In addition, the results confirm the appropriateness of imposing a common stochastic process for interest rates in equilibrium models of the term structure.

Recent papers by Lamoureux and Poon (1987) and Brennan and Copeland (1988) document a significant permanent increase in average beta subsequent to stock split ex-dates. This paper demonstrates that the shift in estimated beta following ex-dates decays as the measurement interval is lengthened. There is no statistically significant difference between pre- and post-split betas using the Scholes-Williams (1977) estimator and weekly return data, or using monthly returns. We conclude that Lamoureux and Poon's and Brennan and Copeland's results can be attributed to a bias created by using too short a return measurement interval to estimate beta.

This paper evaluates a nonparametric sign test for abnormal security price performance in event studies. The sign test statistic examined here does not require a symmetrical distribution of security excess returns for correct specification. Sign test performance is compared to a parametric t-test and a nonparametric rank test. Simulations with daily security return data show that the sign test is better specified under the null hypothesis and often more powerful under the alternative hypothesis than a t-test. The performance of the sign test is dominated by the performance of a rank test, however, indicating that the rank test is preferable to the sign test in obtaining nonparametric inferences concerning abnormal security price performance in event studies.