Consider a sum ∑1NYi of random variables conditioned on a given value of the sum ∑1NXi of some other variables, where Xi and Yi are dependent but the pairs (Xi,Yi) form an i.i.d. sequence. We consider here the case when each Xi is discrete. We prove, for a triangular array ((Xni,Yni)) of such pairs satisfying certain conditions, both convergence of the distribution of the conditioned sum (after suitable normalization) to a normal distribution, and convergence of its moments. The results are motivated by an application to hashing with linear probing; we give also some other applications to occupancy problems, random forests, and branching processes.

The paper characterizes matrices which have a given system of vectors orthogonal with respect to a given probability distribution as its right eigenvectors. Results of Hoare and Rahman are unified in this context, then all matrices with a given orthogonal polynomial system as right eigenvectors under the constraint a0j = 0 for j ≥ 2 are specified. The only stochastic matrices P = {pij} satisfying p00 + p01 = 1 with the Hahn polynomials as right eigenvectors have the form of the Moran mutation model.

We consider a continuous-time Markov additive process (Jt,St) with (Jt) an irreducible Markov chain on E = {1,…,s}; it is known that (St/t) satisfies the large deviations principle as t → ∞. In this paper we present a variational formula H for the rate function κ∗ and, in some sense, we have a composition of two large deviations principles. Moreover, under suitable hypotheses, we can consider two other continuous-time Markov additive processes derived from (Jt,St): the averaged parameters model (Jt,St(A)) and the fluid model (Jt,St(F)). Then some results of convergence are presented and the variational formula H can be employed to show that, in some sense, the convergences for (Jt,St(A)) and (Jt,St(F)) are faster than the corresponding convergences for (Jt,St).

The paper examines multivariate delayed marked renewal processes, of which one component is formed by a delayed compound Poisson process observed at epochs of some point process. In addition, the values of these observations (and other components) are watched when crossing their respective thresholds and the value of the original Poisson process at any moment of time, past the first passage time, is the objective of this investigation. The results (which are imperative for classes of semiregenerative processes) are given in closed analytical forms and illustrated on various stochastic models.

We consider a real-valued random walk which drifts to -∞ and is such that the step distribution is heavy tailed, say, subexponential. We investigate the asymptotic tail behaviour of the distribution of the upwards first passage times. As an application, we obtain the exact rate of convergence for the ruin probability in finite time. Our result supplements similar theorems in risk theory.

In this paper we study random variables related to a shock reliability model. Our models can be used to study systems that fail when k consecutive shocks with critical magnitude (e.g. above or below a certain critical level) occur. We obtain properties of the distribution function of the random variables involved and we obtain their limit behaviour when k tends to infinity or when the probability of entering a critical set tends to zero. This model generalises the Poisson shock model.

In this paper, a single channel FIFO fluid queue with an infinite buffer space and a long-range dependent input is studied. The input traffic is modeled by an average input rate plus a standard fractional Brownian motion as the fluctuation. Lower and upper bounds are derived for the tail distribution of the transient queue length at time T, which result in a logarithmic characterization of the asymptotic behavior of the tail distribution. Furthermore, the exact asymptotic is also obtained. It is observed that the transient queue length under fractional Brownian input does not suffer from the heavy-tail property as does the steady-state queue length. The results are used to compute the equivalent bandwidth requirement for ATM broadband connections with fractional Brownian traffic feed and finite connection holding time.

In this article, we prove the existence of critical Hawkes point processes with a finite average intensity, under a heavy-tail condition for the fertility rate which is related to a long-range dependence property. Criticality means that the fertility rate integrates to 1, and corresponds to the usual critical branching process, and, in the context of Hawkes point processes with a finite average intensity, it is equivalent to the absence of ancestors. We also prove an ergodic decomposition result for stationary critical Hawkes point processes as a mixture of critical Hawkes point processes, and we give conditions for weak convergence to stationarity of critical Hawkes point processes.

The application of the generalised ballot theorem to queueing theory leads to elegant results for the simple M/G/1 queue. It is thought that such results are not possible for more general M/G/1-type queues. We, however, derive a batch ballot theorem which can be applied to derive the first passage distribution matrix, G, for the general M/G/1-type queue.

Lenin et al. (2000) recently introduced the idea of similarity in the context of birth-death processes. This paper examines the extent to which their results can be extended to arbitrary Markov chains. It is proved that, under a variety of conditions, similar chains are strongly similar in a sense which is described, and it is shown that minimal chains are strongly similar if and only if the corresponding transition-rate matrices are strongly similar. A general framework is given for constructing families of strongly similar chains; it permits the construction of all such chains in the irreducible case.

An urn contains m minus balls and p plus balls, and we draw balls from this urn one at a time randomly without replacement until we wish to stop. Let Pn and Mn denote the respective numbers of plus balls and minus balls drawn by time n and define Z0 = 0, Zn = Pn - Mn, 1 ≤ n ≤ m + p. The main problem of this paper is to stop with maximum probability on the maximum of the trajectory formed by . This problem is closely related to the celebrated ballot problem, so that we obtain some identities concerning the ballot problem and then derive the optimal stopping rule explicitly. Some related modifications are also studied.

The coupon subset collection problem is a generalization of the classical coupon collecting problem, in that rather than collecting individual coupons we obtain, at each time point, a random subset of coupons. The problem of interest is to determine the expected number of subsets needed until each coupon is contained in at least one of these subsets. We provide bounds on this number, give efficient simulation procedures for estimating it, and then apply our results to a reliability problem.

Here we consider the Kohonen algorithm with a constant learning rate as a Markov process evolving in a topological space. Despite the fact that the algorithm is not weak Feller, we show that it is a T-chain, regardless of the dimensionalities of both data space and network and the special shape of the neighborhood function. In addition for the practically important case of the multi-dimensional setting, it is shown that the chain is irreducible and aperiodic. We show that these imply the validity of Doeblin's condition, which in turn ensures the convergence in distribution of the process to an invariant probability measure with a geometric rate. Furthermore, it is shown that the process is positive Harris recurrent, which enables us to use statistical devices to measure the centrality and variability of the invariant probability measure. Our results cover a wide class of neighborhood functions.

This paper considers the occurrence of patterns in sequences of independent trials from a finite alphabet; Gani and Irle (1999) have described a finite state automaton which identifies exactly those sequences of symbols containing the specific pattern, which may be thought of as the word of interest. Each word generates a particular Markov chain. Motivated by a result of Guibas and Odlyzko (1981) on stochastic monotonicity for the random times when a particular word is completed for the first time, a new level-crossing ordering is introduced for stochastic processes. A process {Yn : n = 0, 1, …} is slower in level-crossing than a process {Zn}, if it takes {Yn} stochastically longer than {Zn} to exceed any given level. This relation is shown to be useful for the comparison of stochastic automata, and is used to investigate this ordering for Markov chains in discrete time.

Consider a sequence X1,…,Xn of independent random variables with the same continuous distribution and the event Xi-r+1 < ⋯ < Xi of the appearance of an increasing sequence with length r, for i=r,…,n. Denote by W the number of overlapping appearances of the above event in the sequence of n trials. In this work, we derive bounds for the total variation and Kolmogorov distances between the distribution of W and a suitable compound Poisson distribution. Via these bounds, an associated theorem concerning the limit distribution of W is obtained. Moreover, using the previous results we study the asymptotic behaviour of the length of the longest increasing sequence. Finally, we suggest a non-parametric test based on W for checking randomness against local increasing trend.

Wang and Pötzelberger (1997) derived an explicit formula for the probability that a Brownian motion crosses a one-sided piecewise linear boundary and used this formula to approximate the boundary crossing probability for general nonlinear boundaries. The present paper gives a sharper asymptotic upper bound of the approximation error for the formula, and generalizes the results to two-sided boundaries. Numerical computations are easily carried out using the Monte Carlo simulation method. A rule is proposed for choosing optimal nodes for the approximating piecewise linear boundaries, so that the corresponding approximation errors of boundary crossing probabilities converge to zero at a rate of O(1/n2).

We investigate an optimal stopping time problem which arises from pricing Russian options (i.e. perpetual look-back options) on a stock whose price fluctuations are modelled by adjoining a hidden Markov process to the classical Black-Scholes geometric Brownian motion model. By extending the technique of smooth fit to allow jump discontinuities, we obtain an explicit closed-form solution. It gives a non-standard application of the well-known smooth fit principle where the optimal strategy involves jumping over the optimal boundary and by an arbitrary overshoot. Based on the optimal stopping analysis, an arbitrage-free price for Russian options under the hidden Markov model is derived.

The paper shows that the use of both types of random noise, white noise and Poisson noise, can be justified when using an innovations approach. The historical background for this is sketched, and then several methods of whitening dependent time series are outlined, including a mixture of Gaussian white noise and a compound Poisson process: this appears as a natural extension of the Gaussian white noise model for the prediction errors of a non-Gaussian time series. A statistical method for the identification of non-linear time series models with noise made up of a mixture of Gaussian white noise and a compound Poisson noise is presented. The method is applied to financial time series data (dollar-yen exchange rate data), and illustrated via six models.

In this paper we consider the stochastic wave equation in one spatial dimension driven by a two-parameter Gaussian noise which is white in time and has general spatial covariance. We give conditions on the spatial covariance of the driving noise sufficient for the string to have finite expected energy and calculate this energy as a function of time. We show that these same conditions on the spatial covariance of the driving noise are also sufficient to guarantee that the energy of the string has a version which is continuous almost surely.

In this paper we provide new results about stochastic comparisons of the excess lifetime at different times of a renewal process when the interarrival times belong to several ageing classes. We also provide a preservation result for the new better than used in the Laplace transform order ageing class for series systems.