Reduction in seroprevalence of Hepatitis A virus (HAV) is known to be associated with improvements in socioeconomic conditions of the community. National Institute of Virology, Pune has been studying seroprevalence of hepatitis viruses in Pune region over the past four decades. In total, 1438 samples were collected from urban general (UGEN), urban lower socioeconomic stratum (ULSES) and rural (RURAL) populations of the Pune district. Based on estimates in previous studies, subjects were enrolled from age groups ‘6–10’, ‘15–25’ and ‘40 + ’ years. HAV seroprevalence in younger population showed a significant decline. A significant decline in HAV seroprevalence in ‘15–25’ years age group in UGEN (from 85.9% to 73.9%; OR = 0.46, 95% CI: 0.25–0.86) and RURAL (from 98.6% to 91.4%; OR = 0.15, 95% CI: 0.05–0.45) populations suggested that the trend probably started more than a decade ago. Seroprevalence of HAV among ULSES ‘6–10’ children was found to be significantly higher (70.4%) than that among the RURAL children (44.2%; OR = 3.0, 95%CI: 1.7–5.2) and UGEN children (40.4%; OR = 3.5, 95%CI: 1.8–6.7). In view of increasing rates of urbanisation in India, ULSES population needs special consideration while designing future studies and viral hepatitis vaccination/elimination strategies. Our findings call for robust population-based studies that consider heterogeneity within populations and dynamics of socio-economic parameters in various regions of a country.

The COVID-19 pandemic is exerting major pressures on society, health and social care services and science. Understanding the progression and current impact of the pandemic is fundamental to planning, management and mitigation of future impact on the population. Surveillance is the core function of any public health system, and a multi-component surveillance system for COVID-19 is essential to understand the burden across the different strata of any health system and the population. Many countries and public health bodies utilise ‘syndromic surveillance’ (using real-time, often non-specific symptom/preliminary diagnosis information collected during routine healthcare provision) to supplement public health surveillance programmes. The current COVID-19 pandemic has revealed a series of unprecedented challenges to syndromic surveillance including: the impact of media reporting during early stages of the pandemic; changes in healthcare-seeking behaviour resulting from government guidance on social distancing and accessing healthcare services; and changes in clinical coding and patient management systems. These have impacted on the presentation of syndromic outputs, with changes in denominators creating challenges for the interpretation of surveillance data. Monitoring changes in healthcare utilisation is key to interpreting COVID-19 surveillance data, which can then be used to better understand the impact of the pandemic on the population. Syndromic surveillance systems have had to adapt to encompass these changes, whilst also innovating by taking opportunities to work with data providers to establish new data feeds and develop new COVID-19 indicators. These developments are supporting the current public health response to COVID-19, and will also be instrumental in the continued and future fight against the disease.

This study aims to identify the risk factors associated with mortality and survival of COVID-19 cases in a state of the Brazilian Northeast. It is a historical cohort with a secondary database of 2070 people that presented flu-like symptoms, sought health assistance in the state and tested positive to COVID-19 until 14 April 2020, only moderate and severe cases were hospitalised. The main outcome was death as a binary variable (yes/no). It also investigated the main factors related to mortality and survival of the disease. Time since the beginning of symptoms until death/end of the survey (14 April 2020) was the time variable of this study. Mortality was analysed by robust Poisson regression, and survival by Kaplan–Meier and Cox regression. From the 2070 people that tested positive to COVID-19, 131 (6.3%) died and 1939 (93.7%) survived, the overall survival probability was 87.7% from the 24th day of infection. Mortality was enhanced by the variables: elderly (HR 3.6; 95% CI 2.3–5.8; P < 0.001), neurological diseases (HR 3.9; 95% CI 1.9–7.8; P < 0.001), pneumopathies (HR 2.6; 95% CI 1.4–4.7; P < 0.001) and cardiovascular diseases (HR 8.9; 95% CI 5.4–14.5; P < 0.001). In conclusion, mortality by COVID-19 in Ceará is similar to countries with a large number of cases of the disease, although deaths occur later. Elderly people and comorbidities presented a greater risk of death.

The majority of available US-published reports present populations with community spread in urban areas. The objective of this report is to describe a rural healthcare system's utilisation of therapeutic options available to treat Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) and subsequent patient outcomes. A total of 150 patients were treated for COVID-19 at three hospitals in the Dakotas from 21 March 2020 to 30 April 2020. The most common pharmacological treatment regimens administered were zinc, hydroxychloroquine plus azithromycin and convalescent plasma. Adjunctive treatments included therapeutic anticoagulation, tocilizumab and corticosteroids. As of 1 June 2020, 127 patients have survived to hospital discharge, 12 patients remain hospitalised and 11 patients have expired. The efficacy of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin use has yet to be determined but was not without risks of corrected QT interval prolongation and arrhythmias in our cohort. We did not appreciate any adverse effects that appeared related to tocilizumab or convalescent plasma administration in those patient subsets. These findings may provide insight into disease severity and treatment options in the rural setting with limited resources to participate in clinical trials and encourage larger comparative studies evaluating treatment efficacy.

The clinical characteristics of patients with COVID-19 were analysed to determine the factors influencing the prognosis and virus shedding time to facilitate early detection of disease progression. Logistic regression analysis was used to explore the relationships among prognosis, clinical characteristics and laboratory indexes. The predictive value of this model was assessed with receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, calibration and internal validation. The viral shedding duration was calculated using the Kaplan–Meier method, and the prognostic factors were analysed by univariate log-rank analysis and the Cox proportional hazards model. A retrospective study was carried out with patients with COVID-19 in Tianjin, China. A total of 185 patients were included, 27 (14.59%) of whom were severely ill at the time of discharge and three (1.6%) of whom died. Our findings demonstrate that patients with an advanced age, diabetes, a low PaO2/FiO2 value and delayed treatment should be carefully monitored for disease progression to reduce the incidence of severe disease. Hypoproteinaemia and the fever duration warrant special attention. Timely interventions in symptomatic patients and a time from symptom onset to treatment <4 days can shorten the duration of viral shedding.

Spontaneous abortion is considered a public health problem having several causes, including infections. Among the infectious agents, bacteria of the vaginal microbiota and Ureaplasma parvum have been associated with abortion, but their participation needs to be further elucidated. This study aims to evaluate the influence of Mollicutes on the development of spontaneous abortion. Women who underwent spontaneous abortion and those with normal birth (control) were studied. Samples of cervical mucus (CM) and placental tissue were collected to identify Mollicutes using the quantitative polymerase chain reaction methodology. Eighty-nine women who had a miscarriage and 20 women with normal pregnancies were studied. The presence of Mollicutes in placental tissue increased the chance of developing miscarriage sevenfold. The prevalence of U. parvum in women who experienced spontaneous abortion was 66.3% in placental tissue. A positive association was observed between the detection of U. parvum in samples of placental tissue and abortion. There was a significant increase in microbial load in placental tissue for M. hominis, U. urealyticum and U. parvum compared to the control group. Detection of U. parvum in CM in pregnant women can ascend to the region of the placental tissue and trigger a spontaneous abortion.

Transmission of varicella occurs frequently in schools and households. We investigated the characteristics of varicella cases derived from within-household transmission and the modes of varicella transmission between school and household settings in Shanghai, China, from 2009 to 2018. Within-household transmission occurred in 278 households, of which 134 transmission events were between children. Sixty-one household varicella transmission events may be attributed to isolation procedures for infected students during school outbreaks, and 7.6% of school outbreaks were caused by schoolchildren cases derived from within-household transmission. The frequency of ‘school-household-school’ transmission adds an additional layer of complexity to the control of school varicella outbreaks. Administration of varicella vaccine as post-exposure prophylaxis after exposure is considered to be an effective measure to control varicella spread within households and schools.

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious viral disease that affects domestic and wild artiodactyl animals and causes considerable economic losses related to outbreak management, production losses and trade impacts. In Tunisia, the last FMD outbreak took place in 2018–2019. The effectiveness of control measures implemented to control FMD depends, in particular, on the human resources used to implement them. Tunisia has the ultimate objective of obtaining OIE status as ‘FMD-free with vaccination’. The aim of this study was to determine and compare the necessary and available human resources to control FMD outbreaks in Tunisia using emergency vaccination and to assess the gaps that would play a role in the implementation of the strategy. We developed a resources-requirement grid of necessary human resources for the management of the emergency vaccination campaign launched after the identification of a FMD-infected premises in Tunisia. Field surveys, conducted in the 24 governorates of Tunisia, allowed quantifying the available human resources for several categories of skills considered in the resources-requirement grid. For each governorate, we then compared available and necessary human resources to implement vaccination according to eight scenarios mixing generalised or cattle-targeted vaccination and different levels of human resources. The resources-requirement grid included 11 tasks in three groups: management of FMD-infected premises, organisational tasks and vaccination implementation. The available human resources for vaccination-related tasks included veterinarians and technicians from the public sector and appointed private veterinarians. The comparison of available and necessary human resources showed vaccination-related tasks to be the most time-consuming in terms of managing a FMD outbreak. Increasing the available human resources using appointed private veterinarians allowed performing the emergency vaccination of animals in the governorate in due time, especially if vaccination was targeted on cattle. The overall approach was validated by comparing the predicted and observed durations of a vaccination campaign conducted under the same conditions as during the 2014 Tunisian outbreak. This study could provide support to the Tunisian Veterinary Services or to other countries to optimise the management of a FMD outbreak.

To describe the laboratory findings of cases of death with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and to establish a scoring system for predicting death, we conducted this single-centre, retrospective, observational study including 336 adult patients (≥18 years old) with severe or critically ill COVID-19 admitted in two wards of Union Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology in Wuhan, who had definite outcomes (death or discharge) between 1 February 2020 and 13 March 2020. Single variable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to identify mortality-related factors. We combined multiple factors to predict mortality, which was validated by receiver operating characteristic curves. As a result, in a total of 336 patients, 34 (10.1%) patients died during hospitalisation. Through multivariable logistic regression, we found that decreased lymphocyte ratio (Lymr, %) (odds ratio, OR 0.574, P < 0.001), elevated blood urea nitrogen (BUN) (OR 1.513, P = 0.009), and raised D-dimer (DD) (OR 1.334, P = 0.002) at admission were closely related to death. The combined prediction model was developed by these factors with a sensitivity of 100.0% and specificity of 97.2%. In conclusion, decreased Lymr, elevated BUN, and raised DD were found to be in association with death outcomes in critically ill patients with COVID-19. A scoring system was developed to predict the clinical outcome of these patients.

Our understanding of the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to evolve and there are many unknowns about its epidemiology. This study aims to synthesise case fatality rate (CFR) among confirmed COVID-19 patients, incubation period and time from onset of COVID-19 symptoms to first medical visit, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, recovery, and death. We searched MEDLINE, Embase, Google Scholar, and bibliographies of relevant articles from 01 December 2019 to 11 March 2020 without any language restrictions. Quantitative studies that recruited people with confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis were included. Two independent reviewers extracted the data. Out of 1675 non-duplicate studies, 43 were included in the meta-analysis. The pooled mean incubation period was 5.68 (99% confidence interval [CI]: 4.78, 6.59) days. The pooled mean number of days from the onset of COVID-19 symptoms to first clinical visit was 4.92 (95% CI: 3.95, 5.90), ICU admission was 9.84 (95% CI: 8.78, 10.90), recovery was 18.55 (95% CI: 13.69, 23.41), and death was 15.93 (95% CI: 13.07, 18.79). Pooled CFR among confirmed COVID-19 patients was 0.02 (95% CI: 0.02, 0.03). We found that the incubation period and lag between the onset of symptoms and first clinical visit for COVID-19 are longer than other respiratory viral infections including Middle East respiratory syndrome and severe acute respiratory syndrome; however, the current policy of 14 days of mandatory quarantine for everyone potentially exposed to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) might be too conservative. Longer quarantine periods might be more justified for extreme cases.

Another large outbreak of mumps occurred in Lothian from October 2017, which coincided with the commencement of the higher education term. During this period 324 cases were notified, most of whom were aged 18–22 years old. Although previous outbreaks had a focus in student populations, 43% of current cases reported that they were not a student. There has been increases in private student housing where students from all universities live, which may have contributed to the wide spread of the outbreak and complicated outbreak control. Information on vaccination status was available for 244 cases (75%), of whom the majority (75.8%) reported having two MMR doses. To investigate potential waning vaccine immunity the mean length of time since last mumps containing vaccine was calculated as 14.3 years. The outbreak was declared over in May 2018 after case numbers returned to background levels. This outbreak highlighted that mumps outbreaks occur cyclically coinciding with new cohorts of susceptible students entering the Lothian population. The lessons from this outbreak are to encourage students to have two MMR doses and also be prepared for mumps outbreaks in the near future. In future outbreaks the utility of a third MMR for outbreak control could be examined.

Hubei province in China has had the most confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases and has reported sustained transmission of the disease. Although Lu'an city is adjacent to Hubei province, its community transmission was blocked at the early stage, and the impact of the epidemic was limited. Therefore, we summarised the overall characteristics of the entire epidemic course in Lu'an to help cities with a few imported cases better contain the epidemic. A total of 69 confirmed COVID-19 cases and 11 asymptomatic carriers were identified in Lu'an during the epidemic from 12 January to 21 February 2020. Fifty-two (65.0%) cases were male, and the median age was 40 years. On admission, 56.5% of cases had a fever as the initial symptom, and pneumonia was present in 89.9% of cases. The mean serial interval and the mean duration of hospitalisation were 6.5 days (95% CI: 4.8–8.2) and 18.2 days (95% CI: 16.8–19.5), respectively. A total of 16 clusters involving 60 cases (17 first-generation cases and 43 secondary cases) were reported during the epidemic. We observed that only 18.9% (7/37) index cases resulted in community transmission during the epidemic in Lu'an, indicating that the scale of the epidemic was limited to a low level in Lu'an city. An asymptomatic carrier caused the largest cluster, involving 13 cases. Spread of COVID-19 by asymptomatic carriers represents an enormous challenge for countries responding to the pandemic.

The aim of this study was to review microbiology results from testing >2500 raw drinking milk and dairy products made with unpasteurised milk examined in England between 2013 and 2019. Samples were collected as part of incidents of contamination, investigation of infections or as part of routine monitoring and were tested using standard methods for a range of both pathogens and hygiene indicators. Results from testing samples of raw cow's milk or cheese made from unpasteurised milk for routine monitoring purposes were overall of better microbiological quality than those collected during incident or investigations of infections. Results from routine monitoring were satisfactory for 62% of milks, 82% of cream, 100% of ice-cream, 51% of butter, 63% of kefir and 79% of cheeses, with 5% of all samples being considered potentially hazardous. Analysis of data from cheese demonstrated a significant association between increasing levels of indicator Escherichia coli with elevated levels of coagulase positive staphylococci and decreased probability of isolation of Shiga toxin-producing E. coli. These data highlight the public health risk associated with these products and provide further justification for controls applied to raw drinking milk and dairy products made with unpasteurised milk.

Chest CT evaluation is often vital to determine patients suspected of COVID-19 pneumonia. The aim of this study was to determine the evolution of lung abnormalities evaluated by quantitative CT techniques in patients with COVID-19 infection from initial diagnosis to recovery. This retrospective study included 16 patients with COVID-19 infection from 30 January 2020 through 11 March 2020. Repeat chest CT examinations were obtained for three or more scans per patient. We measured total volume and mean CT value of lung lesions in each patient per scan, and then calculated the mass, which equals to volume × (CT value + 1000). Dynamic evolution of chest CT imaging as a function of time was fitted by non-linear regression model in terms of mass, volume and CT value, respectively. According to the fitting curves, we redefined the evolution of lung abnormalities: progressive stage (0–5 days), infection emerged and rapidly aggravated; peak stage (5–15 days), the greatest severity at approximate 7–8 days after onset; and absorption stage (15–30 days), the lesions slowly and gradually resolved.

From 21 January 2020 to 9 February 2020, three family clusters involving 31 patients with coronavirus disease 2019 were identified in Wenzhou, China. The epidemiological and clinical characteristics of the family cluster patients were analysed and compared with those of 43 contemporaneous sporadic cases. The three index cases transmitted the infection to 28 family members 2–10 days before illness onset. Overall, 28 of the 41 sporadic cases and three of 31 patients in the family clusters came back from Wuhan (65.12 vs. 9.68%, P< 0.001). In terms of epidemiological characters and clinical symptoms, no significant differences were observed between the family cluster and sporadic cases. However, the lymphocyte counts of sporadic cases were significantly lower than those of family cluster cases ((1.32 ± 0.55) × 109/l vs. (1.63 ± 0.70) × 109/l, P = 0.037), and the proportion of hypoalbuminaemia was higher in sporadic cases (18/43, 41.86%) than in the family clusters (6/31, 19.35%) (P < 0.05). Within the family cluster, the second- and third-generation cases had milder clinical manifestations, without severe conditions, compared with the index and first-generation cases, indicating that the virulence gradually decreased following passage through generations within the family clusters. Close surveillance, timely recognition and isolation of the suspected or latent patient is crucial in preventing family cluster infection.

Since 2016, the European Region has experienced large-scale measles outbreaks. Several measles outbreaks in England during 2017/18 specifically affected Romanian and Romanian Roma communities. In this qualitative interview study, we looked at the effectiveness of outbreak responses and efforts to promote vaccination uptake amongst these underserved communities in three English cities: Birmingham, Leeds and Liverpool. Semi-structured in-depth interviews were conducted with 33 providers involved in vaccination delivery and outbreak management in these cities. Interviews were analysed thematically and factors that influenced the effectiveness of responses were categorised into five themes: (1) the ability to identify the communities, (2) provider knowledge and understanding of the communities, (3) the co-ordination of response efforts and partnership working, (4) links to communities and approaches to community engagement and (5) resource constraints. We found that effective partnership working and community engagement were key to the prevention and management of vaccine-preventable disease outbreaks in the communities. Effective engagement was found to be compromised by cuts to public health spending and services for underserved communities. To increase uptake in under-vaccinated communities, local knowledge and engagement are vital to build trust and relationships. Local partners must work proactively to identify, understand and build connections with communities.

In December 2019, cases of severe coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) infection rapidly progressed to acute respiratory failure. This study aims to assess the association between the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and the incidence of severe COVID-19 infection. A retrospective cohort study was conducted on 210 patients with COVID-19 infection who were admitted to the Central Hospital of Wuhan from 27 January 2020 to 9 March 2020. Peripheral blood samples were collected and examined for lymphocyte subsets by flow cytometry. Associations between tertiles of NLR and the incidence of severe illness were analysed by logistic regression.

Of the 210 patients with COVID-19, 87 were diagnosed as severe cases. The mean NLR of the severe group was higher than that of the mild group (6.6 vs. 3.3, P < 0.001). The highest tertile of NLR (5.1–19.7) exhibited a 5.9-fold (95% CI 1.3–28.5) increased incidence of severity relative to that of the lowest tertile (0.6–2.5) after adjustments for age, diabetes, hypertension and other confounders. The number of T cells significantly decreased in the severe group (0.5 vs. 0.9, P < 0.001). COVID-19 might mainly act on lymphocytes, particularly T lymphocytes. NLR was identified as an early risk factor for severe COVID-19 illness. Patients with increased NLR should be admitted to an isolation ward with respiratory monitoring and supportive care.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has resulted in a global pandemic, and there is limited data on effective therapies. Bacillus Calmette–Guérin (BCG) vaccine, a live-attenuated strain derived from an isolate of Mycobacterium bovis and originally designed to prevent tuberculosis, has shown some efficacy against infection with unrelated pathogens. In this study, we reviewed 120 consecutive adult patients (≥18 years old) with COVID-19 at a major federally qualified health centre in Rhode Island, United States from 19 March to 29 April 2020. Median age was 39.5 years (interquartile range, 27.0–50.0), 30% were male and 87.5% were Latino/Hispanics. Eighty-two (68.3%) patients had BCG vaccination. Individuals with BCG vaccination were less likely to require hospital admission during the disease course (3.7% vs. 15.8%, P = 0.019). This association remained unchanged after adjusting for demographics and comorbidities (P = 0.017) using multivariate regression analysis. The finding from our study suggests the potential of BCG in preventing more severe COVID-19.