Coxiella burnetii, the causative agent of Q fever, is widely present in dairy products around the world. It has been isolated from unpasteurised milk and cheese and can survive for extended periods of time under typical storage conditions for these products. Although consumption of contaminated dairy products has been suggested as a potential route for transmission, it remains controversial. Given the high prevalence of C. burnetii in dairy products, we sought to examine the feasibility of transmitting the major sequence types (ST16, ST8 and ST20) of C. burnetii circulating in the United States. We delivered three strains of C. burnetii, comprising each sequence type, directly into the stomachs of immunocompetent BALB/c mice via oral gavage (OG) and assessed them for clinical symptoms, serological response and bacterial dissemination. We found that mice receiving C. burnetii by OG had notable splenomegaly only after infection with ST16. A robust immune response and persistence in the stomach and mesenteric lymph nodes were observed in mice receiving ST16 and ST20 by OG, and dissemination of C. burnetii to peripheral tissues was observed in all OG infected mice. These findings support the oral route as a mode of transmission for C. burnetii.

The response to the novel coronavirus outbreak in China suggests that many of the lessons from the 2003 SARS epidemic have been implemented and the response improved as a consequence. Nevertheless some questions remain and not all lessons have been successful. The national and international response demonstrates the complex link between public health, science and politics when an outbreak threatens to impact on global economies and reputations. The unprecedented measures implemented in China are a bold attempt to control the outbreak – we need to understand their effectiveness to balance costs and benefits for similar events in the future.

Encephalitis causes high morbidity and mortality. An incidence of 4.3 cases of encephalitis/100 000 population has been reported in the UK. We performed a retrospective evaluation of the diagnosis and management of adults admitted to hospital with a clinical diagnosis of encephalitis/meningoencephalitis. Clinical, laboratory and radiological data were collated from electronic records. Thirty-six patients, median age 55 years and 24 (67%) male were included. The aetiology was confirmed over nine months in 25 (69%) of whom 16 were infections (six viral, seven bacterial, two parasitic and one viral and parasitic co-infection); 7 autoimmune; 1 metabolic and 1 neoplastic. Of 24 patients with fever, 15 (63%) had an infection. The median time to computed topography, magnetic resonance imaging and electroencephalography (EEG) was 1, 8 and 3 days respectively. Neuroimaging was abnormal in 25 (69%) and 17 (89%) had abnormal EEGs. Only 19 (53%) received aciclovir treatment. Six (17%) made good recoveries, 16 (44%) had moderate disability, 8 (22%) severe disability and 6 (17%) died. Outcomes were worse for those with an infectious cause. In summary, a diagnosis was made in 69.4% of patients admitted with encephalitis/meningoencephalitis. Autoimmune causes are important to consider at an early stage due to a successful response to treatment. Only 53% of patients received aciclovir on admission. Neuroimaging and EEG studies were delayed. The results of this work resulted in further developing the clinical algorithm for managing these patients.

The practice of foodborne illness outbreak investigations has evolved, shifting away from large-scale community case-control studies towards more focused case exposure assessments and sub-cluster investigations to identify contaminated food sources. Criteria to include or exclude cases are established to increase the efficiency of epidemiological analyses and traceback activities, but these criteria can also affect the investigator's ability to implicate a suspected food vehicle. A 2010 outbreak of Salmonella ser. Hvittingfoss infections associated with a chain of quick-service restaurants (Chain A) provided a useful case study on the impact of exclusion criteria on the ability to identify a food vehicle. In the original investigation, a case-control study of restaurant-associated cases and well meal companions was conducted at the ingredient level to identify a suspected food vehicle; however, 21% of cases and 22% of well meal companions were excluded for eating at Chain A restaurants more than once during the outbreak. The objective of this study was to explore how this decision affected the results of the outbreak investigation.

Chickenpox is caused by varicella-zoster-virus (VZV) and is highly contagious. Immigration detention settings are a high-risk environment for primary VZV transmission, with large, rapidly-changing populations in close quarters, and higher susceptibility among non-UK-born individuals. During outbreaks, operational challenges occur in detention settings because of high-turnover and the potential need to implement population movement restriction for prolonged periods. Between December 2017 and February 2018, four cases of chickenpox were notified amongst 799 detainees in an immigration removal centre (IRC). Microbiological investigations included case confirmation by vesicular fluid polymerase chain reaction, and VZV serology for susceptibility testing. Control measures involved movement restrictions, isolation of cases, quarantining and cohorting of non-immune contacts and extending VZV immunity testing to the wider detainee population to support outbreak management. Immunity was tested for 301/532 (57%) detainees, of whom 24 (8%) were non-immune. The level of non-immunity was lower than expected based on the existing literature on VZV seroprevalence in detained populations in England. Serology results identified non-immune contacts who could be cohorted and, due to the lack of isolation capacity, allowed the placement of cases with immune detainees. The widespread immunity testing of all detainees was proving challenging to sustain because it required significant resources and was having a severe impact on operational capacity and the ability to maintain core business activities at the IRC. Therefore, mathematical modelling was used to assess the impact of scaling back mass immunity testing. Modelling demonstrated that interrupting testing posed a risk of one additional case compared to continuing with testing. As such, the decision was made to stop testing, and the outbreak was successfully controlled without excessive strain on resources. Operational challenges generated learning for future outbreaks, with implications for a local and national policy on IRC staff occupational health requirements, and proposed reception screening of detainees for VZV immunity.

Studies in countries with high immunisation coverage suggest that the re-emergence of pertussis may be caused by a decreased duration of protection resulting from the replacement of whole-cell pertussis vaccine (WPV) with the acellular pertussis vaccine (APV). In China, WPV was introduced in 1978. The pertussis vaccination schedule advanced from an all-WPV schedule (1978–2007), to a mixed WPV/APV schedule (2008–2009), then to an all-APV schedule (2010–2016). Increases in the incidence of pertussis have been reported in recent years in Jinan and other cities in China. However, there have been few Chinese-population-based studies focused on the impact of schedule changes. We obtained annual pertussis incidences from 1956 to 2016 from the Jinan Notifiable Conditions Database. We used interrupted time series and segmented regression analyses to assess changes in pertussis incidence at the beginning of each year, and average annual changes during the intervention. Pertussis incidence decreased by 1.11 cases per 100 000 population (P = 0.743) immediately following WPV introduction in 1978 and declined significantly by 1.21 cases per 100 000 population per year (P < 0.0001) between 1978 and 2001. Immediately after APV replaced the fourth dose of WPV in 2008, the second and third doses in 2009, then replaced all four doses in 2010, pertussis incidence declined by 1.98, 1.98 and 1.08 cases per 100 000 population, respectively. However, the results were not statistically significant. There were significant increasing trends in pertussis incidence after APV replacements: 1.63, 1.77 and 1.78 cases/year in 2008–2016, 2009–2016 and 2010–2016, respectively. Our study shows that the impact of an all-WPV schedule may be less than the impacts of the sequential WPV/APV schedules. The short-term impact of APV was better than that of WPV; however, the duration of APV-induced protection was not ideal. The impact and duration of protective immunity resulting from APVs produced in China need further evaluation. Further research on the effectiveness of pertussis vaccination programme in Jinan, China is also necessary.

Hepatitis B vaccination is recommended for men who have sex with men (MSM) in many countries, but information on vaccine coverage is scarce. We studied hepatitis B vaccination programmes and coverage among MSM in Europe to guide prevention. From a large (N = 174 209) pan-European MSM survey (EMIS-2010), we used data on self-reported hepatitis B vaccination, age, education, settlement size and disclosure of the same-sex sexual orientation (‘outness’). We excluded participants with a history of hepatitis B. In multilevel (participants, countries) logistic regression models, we calculated adjusted odds ratios (aOR) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). We analysed data of 163 987 MSM in 38 European countries: 38.3% were ‘out’ to all or almost all, 56.4% reported vaccination against hepatitis B and 65.5% lived in countries with free recommended hepatitis B vaccination for MSM. In the final model the odds for being vaccinated increased with outness (‘out to all or almost all’: aOR 1.76, 95% CI 1.70–1.83 vs. ‘out to no one’) and with living in countries, where hepatitis B vaccination was recommended and free-of-charge for MSM (aOR 2.21, 95% CI 1.47–3.32 vs. ‘no or unclear recommendation’). To increase hepatitis B vaccination coverage among MSM, implementation of MSM-specific recommendations and improvement of the societal climate for MSM is needed.

We have previously shown that the Egyptian Hepatitis C Virus Risk Score (EGCRISC), an Egyptian hepatitis C virus (HCV) risk-based screening tool, to be valid and cost-effective. Certain behaviours, occupations and diseases have been shown to be associated with an increased risk of exposure to HCV infection and constitute a major population reservoir of HCV infection. This study investigated the efficacy of EGCRISC in selected high-risk groups by testing 863 participants from four groups: slaughterhouse workers, illicit drug users (IDUs), female sex workers and human immune deficiency virus (HIV) patients. Data for this study were collected on EGCRISC and another pre-designed risk factor questionnaire. Sera were tested for HCV antibodies by ELISA. EGCRISC, at lower cut-off points, showed significantly good performance (P < 0.05) in all four groups except for females <45 years, but was reliable in detecting HCV cases (sensitivity: 84.21% and negative predictive value: 94.5%). Specific scores for IDUs and HIV patients were developed that showed high accuracy (P < 0.001). A modified EGCRISC for high-risk groups (EGCRISC-HRGs) was shown to be a valid tool that is recommended for use in high-risk populations if no other specific screening tool is available or universal screening is applied. EGCRISC for IDUs (EGCRISC-IDUs) and EGCRISC for HIV patients (EGCRISC-HIV) are useful tools for preselecting potentially HCV-infected cases for further testing in settings where serological analysis is not readily available or accessible.

In recent years, there have been a significant influenza activity and emerging influenza strains in China, resulting in an increasing number of influenza virus infections and leading to public health concerns. The aims of this study were to identify the epidemiological and aetiological characteristics of influenza and establish seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models for forecasting the percentage of visits for influenza-like illness (ILI%) in urban and rural areas of Shenyang. Influenza surveillance data were obtained for ILI cases and influenza virus positivity from 18 sentinel hospitals. The SARIMA models were constructed to predict ILI% for January–December 2019. During 2010–2018, the influenza activity was higher in urban than in rural areas. The age distribution of ILI cases showed the highest rate in young children aged 0–4 years. Seasonal A/H3N2, influenza B virus and pandemic A/H1N1 continuously co-circulated in winter and spring seasons. In addition, the SARIMA (0, 1, 0) (0, 1, 2)12 model for the urban area and the SARIMA (1, 1, 1) (1, 1, 0)12 model for the rural area were appropriate for predicting influenza incidence. Our findings suggested that there were regional and seasonal distinctions of ILI activity in Shenyang. A co-epidemic pattern of influenza strains was evident in terms of seasonal influenza activity. Young children were more susceptible to influenza virus infection than adults. These results provide a reference for future influenza prevention and control strategies in the study area.

The prevalence of many diseases in pigs displays seasonal distributions. Despite growing concerns about the impacts of climate change, we do not yet have a good understanding of the role that weather factors play in explaining such seasonal patterns. In this study, national and county-level aggregated abattoir inspection data were assessed for England and Wales during 2010–2015. Seasonally-adjusted relationships were characterised between weekly ambient maximum temperature and the prevalence of both respiratory conditions and tail biting detected at slaughter. The prevalence of respiratory conditions showed cyclical annual patterns with peaks in the summer months and troughs in the winter months each year. However, there were no obvious associations with either high or low temperatures. The prevalence of tail biting generally increased as temperatures decreased, but associations were not supported by statistical evidence: across all counties there was a relative risk of 1.028 (95% CI 0.776–1.363) for every 1 °C fall in temperature. Whilst the seasonal patterns observed in this study are similar to those reported in previous studies, the lack of statistical evidence for an explicit association with ambient temperature may possibly be explained by the lack of information on date of disease onset. There is also the possibility that other time-varying factors not investigated here may be driving some of the seasonal patterns.

Despite a sizeable evidence base for the risk of campylobacteriosis associated with eating chicken liver pâté, associated outbreaks continue to occur. In January 2017, six cases of campylobacteriosis reported having eaten a Christmas set-menu meal at the same hotel in North Yorkshire, England on the same day. A retrospective cohort study was undertaken to test the null hypothesis that consumption of individual food items was not associated with an increased risk of illness. There were 19 cases of campylobacteriosis linked to the outbreak; seven confirmed and 12 probable cases. Chicken liver pâté was the food item most strongly associated with illness (P < 0.001) with a corresponding high crude relative risk (12.95). This relationship was supported by multivariable analysis, sensitivity analyses and a clear dose–response relationship. Three cases reported an incubation period of <24 h, consistent with other outbreaks of campylobacteriosis associated with consumption of poultry liver. The findings were suggestive of a single point source exposure with a strong association between the consumption of chicken liver pâté and campylobacteriosis. This outbreak highlights that despite evidence that simple cooking techniques can ensure that all campylobacter are killed during cooking, outbreaks continue to occur. Public and professional awareness needs to be raised through a strategic communication plan to reduce the risk of further outbreaks of campylobacteriosis linked to incorrectly cooked chicken liver dishes.

In the event of a Legionnaires' disease outbreak, rapid location and control of the source of bacteria are crucial for outbreak management and regulation. In this paper, we describe an enhancement of the traditional wind rose for epidemiological use; shifting the focus of measurement from relative frequency of the winds speeds and directions to the relative volume of air carried, whilst also incorporating probability distributions of disease incubation periods to refine identification of the important wind directions during a cases window of exposure, i.e. from which direction contaminated aerosols most likely originated. The probability-weighted wind rose offers a potential improvement over the traditional wind rose by weighting the importance of wind measurements through incorporation of probability of exposure given an individual's time of symptom onset (obtained through knowledge of the incubation period), and by instead focusing on the volume of carrying air which offers better insight into the most probable direction of the source. This then provides a probabilistic distribution of which direction the wind was blowing around the time of infection. We discuss how the probability-weighted wind rose can be implemented during a Legionnaires' disease outbreak, and how outbreak control teams might use it as supportive evidence to identify the most likely direction of the contaminated source from the presumed site of exposure. In addition, this paper discusses how minor adjustments can be made to the method allowing the probability-weighted wind rose to be applied to other non-communicable airborne diseases, providing the disease's probability distribution for the incubation period distribution is well known.

Cytomegalovirus (CMV) enters latency after primary infection and can reactivate periodically with virus excreted in body fluids which can be called shedding. CMV shedding during the early stage of pregnancy is associated with adverse pregnancy outcome. The shedding pattern in healthy seropositive women who plan to have babies has not been well characterised. Vaginal swabs, urine and blood were collected from 1262 CMV IgG-positive women who intended to have babies and tested for CMV DNA by fluorogenic quantitative PCR method. Serum IgM was also detected. The association between sociodemographic characteristics and CMV shedding prevalence was analysed. Among 1262 seropositive women, 12.8% (161/1262) were detected CMV DNA positive in at least one body fluid. CMV DNA was more frequently detected in vaginal secretion (10.5%) than in urine (3.2%) and blood (0.6%) also with higher viral loads (P < 0.00). CMV shedding was more likely detected in IgM-positive women than IgM-negative women (29.5% (13/44) vs. 12.2% (148/1218); OR 3.03, 95% CI 1.55–5.93; P = 0.001). CMV shedding in vaginal secretion was highly correlated with shedding in urine, the immune state of IgM, the adverse pregnant history and younger age. CMV shedding was more commonly detected in vaginal secretion than in urine or blood with higher viral loads among healthy seropositive women of reproductive age. Further studies are needed to figure out whether the shedding is occasional or continuous and whether it is associated with adverse pregnancy outcomes.

We describe and analyse an outbreak of measles that affected Belgium early 2017. In total, 289 cases were reported, mostly (53%) in people 15 years or older. For 133 (46%) vaccination status was unknown and a further 117 (41%) were not vaccinated. According to national guidelines, 83 of the unvaccinated cases (29% of total cases) should have received minimum one dose of vaccine, but did not. One in five cases (21%) did not present with the classical triad of fever, rash and any of coryza, conjunctivitis or cough. Rash was the most sensitive symptom, being absent in only six cases. A large proportion of cases (125/289, 43%) required hospitalisation. In hospitalised patients, the most commonly observed complications were hepatic disorders (present in 58/125 hospitalised patients, 46%). Thirty-six of the cases (12%) were in healthcare workers and nosocomial spread contributed importantly to the outbreak. Older age at presentation, altered clinical presentations and presence of complications like hepatitis can delay the correct diagnosis of measles. Clinicians should maintain a high index of suspicion in any individual presenting with rash. If the elimination target is to be reached, catch-up vaccination campaigns should be intensified and target young adults and health care workers.

Since 2015, the number of hepatitis B virus (HBV) cases increased substantially in Germany. In 2015, a more sensitive HBV case definition was introduced. This coincided with an asylum seeker influx with differing screening strategies. Information on the asylum seeker status has been collected since 09/2015. We investigated this increase to interpret HBV notification data in Germany. We compared HBV surveillance data from 2010–2013 (baseline) with 2015–2016, excluding 2014 due to beginning of asylum seeker influx. We estimated the excess above the mean case number (baseline) using Poisson regression and compared asylum seeker cases and the excess of cases with the unknown asylum seeker status. HBV cases increased from 1855 (mean baseline) to 3873 (2015) and 3466 (2016) with 1903 asylum seeker cases and 1099 excess-cases with the unknown asylum seeker status in 2015–2016. Cases only fulfilling the changed case definition increased from 60% (1119) in baseline to 81% (P < 0.01) in 2015–2016; 69% of asylum seeker cases and 61% of excess-cases were males <40 years compared to 27% (baseline) (P < 0.01). Changed case definition increased the number of cases in official statistics substantially. Demographic and geographical distributions suggest that screening of asylum seekers increased the case numbers even to a higher extent than surveillance data indicates.

This study aims to ascertain the long-term epidemic trends of malaria and evaluates the probability of achieving the eradication goal by 2020 in China. Data on malaria incidence and deaths were extracted from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention. The epidemic trends by sex, age and spatial distribution and predictions of malaria were estimated by using Joinpoint and Poisson regressions. From 1950 to 2016, 227 668 374 malaria cases were reported in China, with an annualised average incidence of 337.02 (336.98–337.07, 95% confidence interval (CI)) per 100 000 population. The incidence decreased with an average annual per cent change (AAPC) of −11.4% (−16.6 to −6.0). There were 36 085 malaria deaths, with an annualised average mortality of 0.534 (0.529–0.540) per 1 000 000 population. The mortality decreased with an AAPC of −8.7% (−13.7 to −3.4). The predicted number of malaria cases and deaths for 2020 is 2 562 and 10, respectively, and zero for indigenous cases. The disease burden of malaria dramatically decreased in China. Though, the goal of malaria elimination is realistic by 2020 in China, routine clinical and entomological surveillance should be continually conducted, especially for the cross-border areas and imported malaria cases.

Early changes in biomarker levels probably occur before bloodstream infection (BSI) is diagnosed. However, this issue has not been fully addressed. We aimed at evaluating the kinetics of C-reactive protein (CRP) and plasma albumin (PA) in the 30 days before community-acquired (CA) BSI diagnosis. From a population-based BSI database we identified 658 patients with at least one measurement of CRP or PA from day −30 (D–30) through day −1 (D–1) before the day of CA-BSI (D0) and a measurement of the same biomarker at D0 or D1. Amongst these, 502 had both CRP and PA measurements which fitted these criteria. CRP and PA concentrations began to change inversely some days before CA-BSI diagnosis, CRP increasing by day −3.1 and PA decreasing by day −1.3. From D–30 to D–4, CRP kinetics (expressed as slopes – rate of concentration change per day) was −1.5 mg/l/day. From D–3 to D1, the CRP slope increased to 36.3 mg/l/day. For albumin, the slope between D–30 to D–2 was 0.1 g/l/day and changed to −1.8 g/l/day between D–1 and D1. We showed that biomarker levels begin to change some days before the CA-BSI diagnosis, CRP 3.1 days and PA 1.3 days before.

Nutritional factors and infectious agents may contribute to paediatric growth deficits in low- and middle-income countries; however, the contribution of enteric pathogens is only beginning to be understood. We analysed the stool from children <5 years old from an open cohort, cluster-randomised controlled trial of a point-of-collection water chlorinator in urban Bangladesh. We compared the presence/absence of 15 enteric pathogens detected via multiplex, molecular methods in the stool with concurrent Z-scores/Z-score cut-offs (−2 standard deviations (s.d.)) for height-for-age (HAZ/stunting), weight-for-age (WAZ/underweight) and weight-for-height (WHZ/wasting), adjusted for sociodemographic and trial-related factors, and measured caregiver-reported diarrhoea. Enteric pathogen prevalence in the stool was high (88% had ≥1 enteric pathogen, most commonly Giardia spp. (40%), Salmonella enterica (33%), enterotoxigenic E. coli (28%) and Shigella spp. (27%)) while reported 7-day diarrhoea prevalence was 6%, suggesting high subclinical infection rates. Many children were stunted (26%) or underweight (24%). Adjusted models suggested Giardia spp. detection was associated with lower HAZ (−0.22 s.d., 95% CI −0.44 to 0.00; prevalence ratio for stunting: 1.39, 95% CI 0.94–2.06) and potentially lower WAZ. No pathogens were associated with reported diarrhoea in adjusted models. Giardia spp. carriage may be associated with growth faltering, but not diarrhoea, in this and similar low-income settings. Stool-based enteric pathogen detection provides a direct indication of previous exposure that may be useful as a broader endpoint of trials of environmental interventions.

Sierra Leone is the country with highest maternal mortality and infections are the underlying cause in 11% of maternal deaths, but the real burden remains unknown. This study aims to determine the incidence and risk factors of surgical site infection (SSI) post-caesarean section (CS) in women admitted to Princess Christian Maternity Hospital (PCMH) in Freetown, Sierra Leone. A prospective case–control (1:3 ratio) study was implemented from 1 May 2018 to 30 April 2019 and 11 women presenting with suspected or confirmed infection post-CS were screened for inclusion as a case. For each case, three patients undergoing CS on the same day and admitted to the same ward, but not presenting with SSI, were selected as controls. The post-CS infection rate was 10.9%. Two hundred and fifty-four clinically confirmed cases were enrolled and matched with 762 control patients. By multivariable analysis, the risk factors for SSI were: being single (odds ratio (OR) 1.48, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.36–1.66), low education level (OR 1.68, 95% CI 1.55–1.84), previous CS (OR 1.27, 95% CI 1.10–1.52), presenting with premature membranes rupture (OR 1.49, 95% CI 1.18–1.88), a long decision–incision time (OR 2.08, 95% CI 1.74–2.24) and a high missing post-CS antibiotic doses rate (OR 2.52, 95% CI 2.10–2.85).