We test the ability of a two-dimensional flux model to simulate polynya events with narrow open-water zones by comparing model results to ice-thickness and ice-production estimates derived from thermal infrared Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) observations in conjunction with an atmospheric dataset. Given a polynya boundary and an atmospheric dataset, the model correctly reproduces the shape of an 11 day long event, using only a few simple conservation laws. Ice production is slightly overestimated by the model, owing to an underestimated ice thickness. We achieved best model results with the consolidation thickness parameterization developed by Biggs and others (2000). Observed regional discrepancies between model and satellite estimates might be a consequence of the missing representation of the dynamic of the thin-ice thickening (e.g. rafting). We conclude that this simplified polynya model is a valuable tool for studying polynya dynamics and estimating associated fluxes of single polynya events.

Calving from the floating termini of outlet glaciers and ice shelves is just the beginning of an interesting chain of events that can subsequently have important impacts on human life and property. Immediately after calving, many icebergs capsize (roll over by 90°) due to the instability of their initial geometry. As icebergs melt and respond to the cumulative effects of ocean swell, they can also reorient their mass distribution by further capsize and fragmentation. These processes release gravitational potential energy and can produce impulsive large-amplitude surface-gravity waves known as tsunamis (a term derived from the Japanese language). Iceberg-capsize tsunamis in Greenland fjords can be of sufficient amplitude to threaten human life and cause destruction of property in settlements. Iceberg-capsize tsunamis may also have a role in determining why some ice shelves along the Antarctic Peninsula disintegrate ‘explosively’ in response to general environmental warming. To quantify iceberg tsunami hazards we investigate iceberg-capsize energetics, and develop a rule relating tsunami height to iceberg thickness. This rule suggests that the open-water tsunami height (located far from the iceberg and from shorelines where the height can be amplified) has an upper limit of 0.01H where H is the initial vertical dimension of the iceberg.

Results from electromagnetic induction surveys of sea-ice thickness in Storfjorden, Svalbard, reveal large interannual ice-thickness variations in a region which is typically characterized by a reoccurring polynya. the surveys were performed in March 2003, May 2006 and March 2007 with helicopter- and ship-based sensors. the thickness distributions are influenced by sea-ice and atmospheric boundary conditions 2 months prior to the surveys, which are assessed with synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images, regional QuikSCAT backscatter maps and wind information from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis dataset. Locally formed thin ice from the Storfjorden polynya was frequently observed in 2003 and 2007 (mean thickness 0.55 and 0.37 m, respectively) because these years were characterized by prevailing northeasterly winds. In contrast, the entire fjord was covered with thick external sea ice in 2006 (mean thickness 2.21 m), when ice from the Barents Sea was driven into the fjord by predominantly southerly winds. the modal thickness of this external ice in 2006 increased from 1.2m in the northern fjord to 2.4 m in the southern fjord, indicating stronger deformation in the southern part. This dynamically thickened ice was even thicker than multi-year ice advected from the central Arctic Ocean in 2003 (mean thickness 1.83 m). the thermodynamic ice thickness of fast ice as boundary condition is investigated with a one-dimensional sea-ice growth model (1DICE) forced with meteorological data from the weather station at the island of Hopen, southeast of Storfjorden. the model results are in good agreement with the modal thicknesses of fast-ice measurements in all years.

Potential energy released from the capsize of ice-shelf fragments (icebergs) is the immediate driver of the brief explosive phase of ice-shelf disintegration along the Antarctic Peninsula (e.g. the Larsen A, Larsen B and Wilkins ice shelves). The majority of this energy powers the rapidly expanding plume of ice-shelf fragments that expands outward into the open ocean; a smaller fraction of this energy goes into surface gravity waves and other dynamic interactions between ice and water that can sustain the continued fragmentation and break-up of the original ice shelf. As an initial approach to the investigation of ice-shelf fragment capsize in ice-shelf collapse, we develop a simple conceptual model involving ideal rectangular icebergs, initially in unstable or metastable orientations, which are assembled into a tightly packed mass that subsequently disassembles via massed capsize. Computations based on this conceptual model display phenomenological similarity to aspects of real ice-shelf collapse. A promising result of the conceptual model presented here is a description of how iceberg aspect ratio and its statistical variance, the two parameters related to ice-shelf fracture patterns, influence the enabling conditions to be satisfied by slow-acting processes (e.g. environmentally driven melting) that facilitate ice-shelf disintegration.

Assessing the significance of current glacier loss on Kilimanjaro, Tanzania, demands a well-constrained temporal perspective. That context is provided by direct measurements, ancillary observations of the ice fields and the analyses of the ice cores collected from them. Ice retreat mechanisms observed there today are consistent with the preservation of the oldest ice, ~11.7 ka, in the central deepest part of the Northern Ice Field (NIF). This ice-core derived paleoclimate history published by Thompson and others (2002) is further confirmed by more recent paleoclimate records from tropical East Africa. Mounting evidence suggests that the (anticipated) loss of the entire NIF will be unprecedented within the past 10 000 years. New evidence bears directly on the mechanisms driving the current ice loss. Measurements made in 2000 on the NIF document that air temperature at 0.5 and 1.5 m above the surface remained below 5°C, while a surface temperature of 0.0°C was sustained for up to 8 hours d-1 under clear conditions, consistent with observations of melting on all Kilimanjaro summit ice fields. The linear relationship between oxygen and hydrogen isotopic ratios for all six ice cores drilled in 2000 lies very close to the global meteoric waterline and does not support sublimation (evaporation) as a major driver of ice loss today or in the past on Kilimanjaro.

Here we apply a two-phase flow model to simulate snow avalanche motion. Flowing snow is modeled as a Bingham fluid. Small-scale laboratory experiments were conducted using a rotating viscometer to validate the constitutive model. Experimental scale model test-runs were also performed, and run-out distances and impact pressures obtained in the model tests were reproduced using the two-phase flow model. Comparisons revealed that the simulated results were strongly dependent on the basal friction angle and calculation mesh size. Although the method reproduced the laboratory model results quite well, constitutive aspects of the basal surface remained unsolved. Future research will need to incorporate a numerical technique to handle the basal boundary, such as a boundary-fitted coordinate technique.

With the conclusion of the science phase of the Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) mission in late 2009, and the planned launch of ICESat-2 in late 2015, NASA has recently established the IceBridge program to provide continuity between missions. A major goal of IceBridge is to obtain a sea-ice thickness time series via airborne surveys over the Arctic and Southern Oceans. Typically two laser altimeters, the Airborne Topographic Mapper (ATM) and the Land, Vegetation and Ice Sensor (LVIS), are utilized during IceBridge flights. Using laser altimetry simulations of conventional analogue systems such as ICESat, LVIS and ATM, with the multi-beam system proposed for ICESat-2, we investigate differences in measurements gathered at varying spatial resolutions and the impact on sea-ice freeboard. We assess the ability of each system to reproduce the elevation distributions of two sea-ice models and discuss potential biases in lead detection and sea-surface elevation, arising from variable footprint size and spacing. The conventional systems accurately reproduce mean freeboard over 25 km length scales, while ICESat-2 offers considerable improvements over its predecessor ICESat. In particular, its dense along-track sampling of the surface will allow flexibility in the algorithmic approaches taken to optimize the signal-to-noise ratio for accurate and precise freeboard retrieval.

The Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS) is relatively new. Its optical sensors are capable of making high-resolution digital surface models (DSMs). For the first time, the task of constructing a regional-scale inventory of glacial lakes based on ALOS data has been undertaken. This study presents the data-processing methods and the results of validation and analysis on the ALOS-based glacial lake inventory of Bhutan in the Himalaya. The analysis based on GPS measurements taken at Metatshota lake in the Mangde Chu sub-basin, one of the glacial lakes assessed as presenting a potential flood danger, shows a validation estimate of 9.5 m for the location of the ALOS-based polygon, with a root mean square of 11.7 m. A comparison with digitized data from the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) shows that positioning and evaluation of terrain changes can be significantly improved using ALOS data. Preliminary analysis of the glacial lakes in four sub-basins, Mo Chu, Pho Chu, Mangde Chu and Dangme Chu, reveals that the frequency distribution of lake sizes biases towards smaller lakes. Glacial lakes 0.01–0.05km2 in area account for ~55% of the total number and occupy 13% of the total area. Together our results demonstrate the usefulness of high-resolution ALOS data with accurate DSMs for studying glacial lakes. High priority must be given to continuously improving and updating the glacial lake inventory with high-resolution satellite data.

A complete glacier inventory of the Himalaya and Karakoram (H-K) has been created by merging records from the Chinese Glacier Inventory, several regional inventories produced by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, Kathmandu, Nepal, and partial inventories from the Geological Survey of India. The only remaining gap, the Indian part of Kashmir, has been filled by a reconnaissance inventory based on Soviet military maps at 1 : 200 000 scale representing the late 1970s. It contains records for 3526 glaciers covering 9584 km2. The new H-K inventory contains records and outlines for 20 812 glaciers covering 43 178 km2. The extent of ice in the Karakoram is slightly less than in the Himalaya, but the Karakoram glaciers are on average twice as thick (~160m as against ~80 m). A glacier-by-glacier analysis, relying on estimates of mass balance for the entire mountain range and on an extension of the often-used volume–area scaling relation, suggests that up to about one-fifth of the glaciers present in 1985 may have disappeared already. If mass loss were to remain constant at the average rate for 1975–2008, from 3000 to 13 000 more glaciers might disappear by 2035. If mass loss were to continue to accelerate as inferred for 1985–2008, only a few thousand to a few hundred glaciers might remain in 2035. Total area and total mass would each decrease by about one-half (constant-rate assumption) or three-quarters (constant-trend assumption). These projections, which are uncertain and neglect some possibly important mitigating controls, such as variable extents of debris cover and the feedback due to retreat to higher elevations, demonstrate the need for more complete analyses to inform public perceptions of, and policy decisions relating to, the health of H-K glaciers.

Grease ice is a mixture of sea water and frazil ice crystals forming in Arctic and Antarctic waters. the initial grease-ice cover, or the grease ice forming during winter in leads and polynyas, may therefore have mixed properties of water and ice. Most sea-ice models use a lower thickness limit on the solid sea ice, representing a transition from grease ice to solid ice. Before grease ice solidifies it is often packed into a layer by the local wind. Existing field measurements of grease ice are compared and used to evaluate a new thickness parameterization including the drag from the wind as well as the ocean current. the measurements support a scaling of the wind drag and the back pressure from the grease-ice layer using a nonlinear relation. the relation is consistent with an increasing grease-ice thickness towards a solid boundary. Grease-ice data from Storfjorden, Svalbard, confirm that tidal currents are strong enough to add significant drag force on the grease ice. A typical wind speed of only 10ms −1 results in a 0.3m thick layer of grease ice. Tidal currents of 0.5ms −1 will pack the grease ice further towards a stagnant boundary to a mean thickness of 0.8 m.

Ice surface altimetry from ICESat-1 and NASA aircraft altimeter overflights spanning 2002–09 indicate that a region of lower Crane Glacier, Antarctic Peninsula, shows an unusual temporal pattern of elevation loss: a period of very rapid drawdown (~91ma–1 between September 2004 and September 2005) bounded by periods of large but more moderate rates (23ma–1 until September 2004; 12ma–1 after September 2005). The region of increased drawdown is ~4.5 km ×2.2 km based on satellite (ASTER and SPOT-5) stereo-image digital elevation model (DEM) differencing spanning the event. In a later differential DEM the anomalous drawdown feature is not seen. Bathymetry in Crane Glacier fjord reveals a series of flat-lying, formerly subglacial deeps interpreted as lake sediment basins. We conclude that the elevation-change feature resulted from drainage of a small, deep subglacial lake. We infer that the drainage event was induced by hydraulic forcing of subglacial water past a downstream obstruction. However, only a fraction of Crane Glacier’s increase in flow speed that occurred near the time of lake drainage (derived from image feature tracking) appears to be directly attributable to the event; instead, retreat of the ice front off a subglacial ridge 6 km downstream of the lake is likely the dominant cause of renewed fast flow and more negative mass balance in the subsequent 4 years.

Digital elevation models (DEMs), represent the three-dimensional terrain and are the basic input for numerical snow avalanche dynamics simulations. DEMs can be acquired using topographic maps or remote-sensing technologies, such as photogrammetry or lidar. Depending on the acquisition technique, different spatial resolutions and qualities are achieved. However, there is a lack of studies that investigate the sensitivity of snow avalanche simulation algorithms to the quality and resolution of DEMs. Here, we perform calculations using the numerical avalance dynamics model RAMMS, varying the quality and spatial resolution of the underlying DEMs, while holding the simulation parameters constant. We study both channelized and open-terrain avalanche tracks with variable roughness. To quantify the variance of these simulations, we use well-documented large-scale avalanche events from Davos, Switzerland (winter 2007/08), and from our large-scale avalanche test site, Vallée de la Sionne (winter 2005/06).We find that the DEM resolution and quality is critical for modeled flow paths, run-out distances, deposits, velocities and impact pressures. Although a spatial resolution of ∼25m is sufficient for large-scale avalanche modeling, the DEM datasets must be checked carefully for anomalies and artifacts before using them for dynamics calculations.

A discrete-element model of sea ice is used to study how a 90˚ change in wind direction alters the pattern of faults generated through mechanical failure of the ice. the sea-ice domain is 400 km in size and consists of polygonal floes obtained through a Voronoi tessellation. Initially the floes are frozen together through viscous–elastic joints that can break under sufficient compressive, tensile and shear deformation. A constant wind-stress gradient is applied until the initially frozen ice pack is broken into roughly diamond-shaped aggregates, with crack angles determined by wing-crack formation. Then partial refreezing of the cracks delineating the aggregates is modelled through reduction of their length by a particular fraction, the ice pack deformation is neglected and the wind stress is rotated by 90˚. New cracks form, delineating aggregates with a different orientation. Our results show the new crack orientation depends on the refrozen fraction of the initial faults: as this fraction increases, the new cracks gradually rotate to the new wind direction, reaching 90˚ for fully refrozen faults. Such reorientation is determined by a competition between new cracks forming at a preferential angle determined by the wing-crack theory and at old cracks oriented at a less favourable angle but having higher stresses due to shorter contacts across the joints.

The stable oxygen isotopic composition (δ18O), texture and stratigraphy of landfast ice in Santala Bay, Gulf of Finland, were studied annually from 1999 to 2009. Apart from one year when there was no ice, maximum ice thickness ranged from 0.22 to 0.60 m. Maximum ice thickness was determined primarily by average air temperature, and a simple accumulated freezing-degree-day–ice-thickness model explained 86% of ice-thickness variance. the total ice thickness each winter was dominated by columnar ice and intermediate granular/columnar ice formed at the base of the ice cover. Meteoric ice (snow ice and superimposed ice) accumulated at the top of the ice cover each winter and constituted 4–39% of the total ice thickness (ice mass). Snow ice formed in seven of the ten winters; superimposed ice formed in only three winters. the snow fraction in the meteoric ice contributed 1–30% annually of the total ice mass, with an average of 8.8%.

We used atmospheric air-temperature data from the Chinese radiosonde network to analyze changes in freezing-level heights (FLHs) during the past 48 years and studied their impacts on the cryosphere. We examined radiosonde time-series data from 92 selected Chinese radiosonde network stations. Generally, FLH exhibited a latitudinal zone, declining from the south. The FLH trend during 1958–2005 showed spatial inhomogeneity, most uniform distributions during autumn, and significant upward trends. Temporal variability of FLH in eastern China was briefly associated with El Niño Southern Oscillation events, but the causes of FLH changes in western China require further investigation. FLH in western and northern China has mostly increased since 1958, and might be considered a possible indicator of cryospheric change during the second half of the 20th century. There were significant correlations between FLH and changes in snow cover, glaciers and permafrost.

In this study we aim to connect glacier extent in 1998 with general climatic conditions, and glacier changes between 1969 and 1998 with climate change in the Austrian Alps. The investigations are based on two complete glacier inventories, a homogenized gridded precipitation dataset and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts re-analysis (ERA-40) data of air temperature at different levels. A relationship between median glacier elevation, minimal elevation, the general elevation of the surrounding mountains and mean climatic values was found. In the Austrian Alps, the existence of glaciers at low elevations can only be maintained with above-average accumulation or strong dynamic ice supply. For debris-free glaciers, we found a limit of ~2080ma.s.l., where mean summer temperatures (June–August) exceed 4°C. Glacier changes from 1969 to 1998 are strongly negative both in relative area and in mean thickness. There is a weak and regionally varying negative trend in precipitation over this period. A spatially consistent sequence of positive temperature anomalies in the early 1980s and after 1990 offers an explanation for the retreat. The study shows that the observed spatial variability of glacier changes is connected more strongly to the topographic differences than to a regionally different climate change signal.

Local and transect ice-thickness measurements were performed between May and November 2007 on an ice floe in the Transpolar Drift of the Arctic Ocean using an ice mass-balance buoy and electromagnetic induction (EM) sounding. Repeated EM surveys along an originally 2160m long profile including level and deformed ice showed that between June and September modal and mean thicknesses decreased by 0.6 and 0.86m respectively. the modal thickness decrease is in good agreement with the thinning of 0.6m observed by the ice mass-balance buoy at one location on unponded ice during the same period, although the local observations do not capture the different melt rates on level and rough ice. the paper discusses methodological and operational challenges in sustaining both measurements over periods of several months, and concludes that more work needs to be done to better understand their representativeness.

Area changes at 39 of the widest Greenland marine-terminating glacier outlets are measured in consecutive annual end-of-melt-season Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) scenes spanning ten annual intervals (2000–10). The rates of cumulative area change for glaciers and ice shelves are well represented by linear least-squares fits, R = –0.99 and R = –0.94, with average rates of –70 and –65km2 a–1, respectively. Collectively, during this decade, the 39 glaciers lost a cumulative area of 1368 km2. More than three-quarters of the total area change occurred north of 72˚N. The largest 11-year area change for a single glacier during the survey period is the 311km2 loss at Humboldt Glacier. The largest annual change for a single glacier was extreme compared with the others, where Petermann glacier retreated 17km between 3 and 5 August 2010. For the 10 year sample, on average, the count of glaciers retreating is twice that advancing. A larger distinction is evident considering area change, with the ratio of retreat and advance, on average, nine times the gain. For glaciers with ice shelves, we find no year with collective area gain. The area change data from this study are posted at: http://bprc.osu.edu/~jbox/data/GAC/

This study illustrates the relevance of cryospheric changes for, and their impact on, ski tourism in Austria. The results of several case studies on snow reliability, snow production and mass balance in glacier ski resorts in the Ötz and Stubai valleys are summarized. Climate data from Obergurgl (1936ma.s.l.) in the Ötz valley are analyzed with respect to the amount and duration of natural snow cover and the possibility of snow production. A case study on Mittelbergferner focuses on the impacts of glacial recession on a ski resort and possible adaptation measures. From long-term glacier inventory and short-term mass-balance data, the effect of operating ski resorts on glaciers is investigated. At Obergurgl, the probability of both snow cover and snow production is >80% from December to March and decreases significantly in the months before and after this peak season. The interannual variability of snow cover and production is low during the main season and higher in other months. Year-to-year differences are larger than any long-term trend. Glacier ski resorts must adapt to shrinking glacial area and falling glacier surface. Covering the glacier with textiles reduces ablation by 60% and results in significantly less volume loss than on uncovered parts of the glacier. Neither the mass-balance comparison between groomed and ungroomed areas nor the comparison of long-term volume changes between 10 ski resort glaciers and 100 surrounding glaciers showed evidence for an impact of the operation of ski resorts on the glaciers.

To understand the formation of hard snow in the field and its relationship to the physical parameters of snow surfaces, we carried out snowpack observations at a flat and snow-covered field in Barrow, Alaska. These observations were performed in the middle of winter and included two drifting snow events. After the end of each drifting snow event, the minimum snow surface density increased slightly with time and there was a rapid increase in the minimum snow surface hardness. There was no rain during our observations. Therefore, the strong bonds among the snow surface particles were not due to melting and refreezing; they formed because of hardening during water-vapor transport under a temperature gradient and also by exposure of the inner snow layer through erosion. As a consequence, the snow formed a hard surface following the drifting snow events.