Syphilis remains a serious public health problem in mainland China that requires attention, modelling to describe and predict its prevalence patterns can help the government to develop more scientific interventions. The seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, long short-term memory network (LSTM) model, hybrid SARIMA-LSTM model, and hybrid SARIMA-nonlinear auto-regressive models with exogenous inputs (SARIMA-NARX) model were used to simulate the time series data of the syphilis incidence from January 2004 to November 2023 respectively. Compared to the SARIMA, LSTM, and SARIMA-LSTM models, the median absolute deviation (MAD) value of the SARIMA-NARX model decreases by 352.69%, 4.98%, and 3.73%, respectively. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) value decreases by 73.7%, 23.46%, and 13.06%, respectively. The root mean square error (RMSE) value decreases by 68.02%, 26.68%, and 23.78%, respectively. The mean absolute error (MAE) value decreases by 70.90%, 23.00%, and 21.80%, respectively. The hybrid SARIMA-NARX and SARIMA-LSTM methods predict syphilis cases more accurately than the basic SARIMA and LSTM methods, so that can be used for governments to develop long-term syphilis prevention and control programs. In addition, the predicted cases still maintain a fairly high level of incidence, so there is an urgent need to develop more comprehensive prevention strategies.

To optimize flapping foil performance, in the current study we apply deep reinforcement learning (DRL) to plan foil non-parametric motion, as the traditional control techniques and simplified motions cannot fully model nonlinear, unsteady and high-dimensional foil–vortex interactions. Therefore, a DRL training framework is proposed based on the proximal policy optimization algorithm and the transformer architecture, where the policy is initialized from the sinusoidal expert display. We first demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed DRL-training framework, learning the coherent foil flapping motion to generate thrust. Furthermore, by adjusting reward functions and action thresholds, DRL-optimized foil trajectories can gain significant enhancement in both thrust and efficiency compared with the sinusoidal motion. Last, through visualization of wake morphology and instantaneous pressure distributions, it is found that DRL-optimized foil can adaptively adjust the phases between motion and shedding vortices to improve hydrodynamic performance. Our results give a hint of how to solve complex fluid manipulation problems using the DRL method.

In order to investigate the three-dimensional effects on the flow characteristics of the thin water film for the three-dimensional wings, the numerical simulation of the droplet impingement and film flow on the MS-0317 wing is implemented based on the open-source package OpenFOAM. The simulation focuses on the effects of the angle-of-attack and the angle of sweepback. The movement and impingement of the droplets are calculated using the Lagrangian method, and the film flow is simulated using the thin film assumption and the finite area method. The simulation of the water film flow of the three-dimensional MS-0317 wing shows that there is a spanwise flow of the water film due to the three-dimensional effects. This suggests that more research should be conducted on the warm glaze ice with surface water film of three-dimensional ice accretion on three-dimensional geometries.

Competition among the two-plasmon decay (TPD) of backscattered light of stimulated Raman scattering (SRS), filamentation of the electron-plasma wave (EPW) and forward side SRS is investigated by two-dimensional particle-in-cell simulations. Our previous work [K. Q. Pan et al., Nucl. Fusion 58, 096035 (2018)] showed that in a plasma with the density near 1/10 of the critical density, the backscattered light would excite the TPD, which results in suppression of the backward SRS. However, this work further shows that when the laser intensity is so high ($>{10}^{16}$ W/cm2) that the backward SRS cannot be totally suppressed, filamentation of the EPW and forward side SRS will be excited. Then the TPD of the backscattered light only occurs in the early stage and is suppressed in the latter stage. Electron distribution functions further show that trapped-particle-modulation instability should be responsible for filamentation of the EPW. This research can promote the understanding of hot-electron generation and SRS saturation in inertial confinement fusion experiments.

The target backsheath field acceleration mechanism is one of the main mechanisms of laser-driven proton acceleration (LDPA) and strongly depends on the comprehensive performance of the ultrashort ultra-intense lasers used as the driving sources. The successful use of the SG-II Peta-watt (SG-II PW) laser facility for LDPA and its applications in radiographic diagnoses have been manifested by the good performance of the SG-II PW facility. Recently, the SG-II PW laser facility has undergone extensive maintenance and a comprehensive technical upgrade in terms of the seed source, laser contrast and terminal focus. LDPA experiments were performed using the maintained SG-II PW laser beam, and the highest cutoff energy of the proton beam was obviously increased. Accordingly, a double-film target structure was used, and the maximum cutoff energy of the proton beam was up to 70 MeV. These results demonstrate that the comprehensive performance of the SG-II PW laser facility was improved significantly.

The dynamics of hydrogen bubbles produced by water electrolysis in an acidic electrolyte is studied using electrochemical and optical methods. A defined cyclic modulation of the electric potential is applied at a microelectrode to produce pairs of interacting H$_2$ bubbles in a controlled manner. Three scenarios of interactions are identified and studied systematically. The most prominent one consists of a sudden reversal in the motion of the first detached bubble, its return to the electrode, and finally its coalescence with the second bubble. Attested by Toepler's schlieren technique, an explanation of contactless motion reversal is provided by the competition between buoyancy and thermocapillary effects.

As a basic flow model for engineering applications, wall-bounded turbulent flow has been widely studied in the field of aero-optics, but the flow control methods that could effectively suppress aero-optical effects are relatively rare. As an urgent requirement in engineering application, the concept of the steady wall blowing and suction is proposed by the author. Firstly, the author briefly described the flow model and physical method. Secondly, the choice of disturbance type is given. Then, the results of wall blowing-suction, suction and blowing ways based on steady and unsteady disturbance are compared. Finally, it is concluded that employing the high steady wall blowing disturbance (A = 0.2) could realise aero-optical suppression by around 20%. Besides, the steady wall suction scheme contributes to about 70%–80% reduction effect within a wide amplitude range (A = 0.2–1.0), which suppresses this effect by maintaining laminar state downstream contrasted by the baseline case.

In small seeds, light often promotes germination and longer-term exposure to darkness reduces light sensitivity. In cacti inhabiting harsh environments, a rapid response to light exposure is potentially advantageous for seedling establishment. We exposed dark-imbibed seeds of the cactus Cereus repandus to doses of red (RED) light and far-red (FR) light. The seeds exhibited positive photoblastism to RED light. Although the initial levels of germination varied between seed lots, the sensitivity to increasing the RED dose did not. As little as 5 min per day for 4 d was sufficient to saturate the light requirement for germination. The effects of RED light were reversed by FR exposure as long as the interval between RED and FR did not extend to 2 d, by which time the seeds had ‘committed’ to germinate. Dark incubation for 1–2 weeks prior to RED exposure reduced light sensitivity in two seed lots, such that RED only promoted around 20% germination. Phytochrome is assumed to mediate the reversibility of the RED:FR response. High sensitivity to light spectral quality suggests that seeds of C. repandus are able to germinate quickly in high-quality microsites, but seed burial or shading may commit the seeds to form a soil seed bank. The light characteristics of the germination trait in this species are typical of many small seeded species of the drylands.

The great demographic pressure brings tremendous volume of beef demand. The key to solve this problem is the growth and development of Chinese cattle. In order to find molecular markers conducive to the growth and development of Chinese cattle, sequencing was used to determine the position of copy number variations (CNVs), bioinformatics analysis was used to predict the function of ZNF146 gene, real-time fluorescent quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) was used for CNV genotyping and one-way analysis of variance was used for association analysis. The results showed that there exists CNV in Chr 18: 47225201-47229600 (5.0.1 version) of ZNF146 gene through the early sequencing results in the laboratory and predicted ZNF146 gene was expressed in liver, skeletal muscle and breast cells, and was amplified or overexpressed in pancreatic cancer, which promoted the development of tumour through bioinformatics. Therefore, it is predicted that ZNF146 gene affects the proliferation of muscle cells, and then affects the growth and development of cattle. Furthermore, CNV genotyping of ZNF146 gene was three types (deletion type, normal type and duplication type) by Real-time fluorescent quantitative PCR (qPCR). The association analysis results showed that ZNF146-CNV was significantly correlated with rump length of Qinchuan cattle, hucklebone width of Jiaxian red cattle and heart girth of Yunling cattle. From the above results, ZNF146-CNV had a significant effect on growth traits, which provided an important candidate molecular marker for growth and development of Chinese cattle.

Based on erosion coupon tests, a sand erosion model for 17-4PH steel was developed. The developed erosion model was validated against the results of compressor erosion tests from a generic rig and from other researchers. A high-fidelity computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model of the test rig was built, a user-defined function was developed to implement the erosion model into the ANSYS CFD software, and the turbulent, two-phase flow-field in multiple reference frames was solved. The simulation results are consistent with the test results from the compressor rig and with experimental findings from other researchers. Specifically, the sand erosion blunts the leading edge, sharpens the trailing edge and increases pressure-surface roughness. The comparisons between the experimental observations and numerical results as well as a quantitative comparison with three other sand erosion models indicate that the developed sand erosion model is adequate for erosion prediction of engine components made of 17-4PH steel.

Frequent freezing injury greatly influences winter wheat production; thus, effective prevention and a command of agricultural production are vital. The freezing injury monitoring method integrated with ‘3S’ (geographic information systems (GIS), global positioning system (GPS) and remote sensing (RS)) technology has an unparalleled advantage. Using HuanJing (HJ)-1A/1B satellite images of a winter wheat field in Shanxi Province, China plus a field survey, crop types and winter wheat planting area were identified through repeated visual interpretations of image information and spatial analyses conducted in GIS. Six vegetation indices were extracted from processed HJ-1A/1B satellite images to determine whether the winter wheat suffered from freezing injury and its degree of severity and recovery, using change vector analysis (CVA), the freeze injury representative vegetation index and the combination of the two methods, respectively. Accuracy of the freezing damage classification results was verified by determining the impact of freezing damage on yield and quantitative analysis. The CVA and the change of normalized difference vegetation index (ΔNDVI) monitoring results were different so a comprehensive analysis of the combination of CVA and ΔNDVI was performed. The area with serious freezing injury covered 0.9% of the total study area, followed by the area of no freezing injury (3.5%), moderate freezing injury (10.2%) and light freezing injury (85.4%). Of the moderate and serious freezing injury areas, 0.2% did not recover; 1.2% of the no freezing injury and light freezing injury areas showed optimal recovery, 15.6% of the light freezing injury and moderate freezing injury areas showed poor recovery, and the remaining areas exhibited general recovery.

To eliminate the effect of ocean currents for optimal path planning for unmanned underwater vehicles (UUVs) in the underwater environment, an intelligent algorithm is designed and proposed in this paper. The algorithm consists of two parts: an artificial potential field-based algorithm that derives the shortest path and avoids collision accidents; and an adjusting function that eliminates the effect of ocean currents. The planning results of the intelligent algorithm are presented in detail, and compared with the conventional algorithm that does not consider the effect of currents. The effectiveness of the optimised path planning method given in this paper is proved.

Particulate deposits in aero-engine turbines change the profile of blades, increase the blade surface roughness and block internal cooling channels and film cooling holes, which generally leads to the degradation of aerodynamic and cooling performance. To reveal particle deposition effects in the turbine, unsteady simulations were performed by investigating the migration patterns and deposition characteristics of the particle contaminant in a one-stage, high-pressure turbine of an aero-engine. Two typical operating conditions of the aero-engine, i.e. high-temperature take-off and economic cruise, were discussed, and the effects of particle size on the migration and deposition of fly-ash particles were demonstrated. A critical velocity model was applied to predict particle deposition. Comparisons between the stator and rotor were made by presenting the concentration and trajectory of the particles and the resulting deposition patterns on the aerofoil surfaces. Results show that the migration and deposition of the particles in the stator passage is dominated by the flow characteristics of fluid and the property of particles. In the subsequential rotor passage, in addition to these factors, particles are also affected by the stator–rotor interaction and the interference between rotors. With higher inlet temperature and larger diameter of the particle, the quantity of deposits increases and the deposition is distributed mainly on the Pressure Side (PS) and the Leading Edge (LE) of the aerofoil.

To improve the endurance performance of long-endurance Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), a smart morphing method to adjust the UAV and flight mode continuously during flight is proposed. Using this method as a starting point, a smart morphing long-endurance UAV design is conducted and the resulting improvement in the endurance performance studied. Firstly, the initial overall design of the smart morphing long-endurance UAV is carried out, then the morphing form is designed and various control parameters are selected. Secondly, based on multi-agent theory, an architecture for the smart morphing control system is built and the workflow of the smart morphing control system is planned. The morphing decision method is designed in detail based on the particle swarm optimisation algorithm. Finally, a simulation of the smart morphing approach in the climb and cruise stages is carried out to quantitatively verify the improvement in the endurance performance. The simulation results show that the smart morphing method can improve the cruise time by 4.1% with the same fuel consumption.

A variable annuity (VA) is an equity-linked annuity that provides investment guarantees to its policyholder and its contributions are normally invested in multiple underlying assets (e.g., mutual funds), which exposes VA liability to significant market risks. Hedging the market risks is therefore crucial in risk managing a VA portfolio as the VA guarantees are long-dated liabilities that may span decades. In order to hedge the VA liability, the issuing insurance company would need to construct a hedging portfolio consisting of the underlying assets whose positions are often determined by the liability Greeks such as partial dollar Deltas. Usually, these quantities are calculated via nested simulation approach. For insurance companies that manage large VA portfolios (e.g., 100k+ policies), calculating those quantities is extremely time-consuming or even prohibitive due to the complexity of the guarantee payoffs and the stochastic-on-stochastic nature of the nested simulation algorithm. In this paper, we extend the surrogate model-assisted nest simulation approach in Lin and Yang [(2020) Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 91, 85–103] to efficiently calculate the total VA liability and the partial dollar Deltas for large VA portfolios with multiple underlying assets. In our proposed algorithm, the nested simulation is run using small sets of selected representative policies and representative outer loops. As a result, the computing time is substantially reduced. The computational advantage of the proposed algorithm and the importance of dynamic hedging are further illustrated through a profit and loss (P&L) analysis for a large synthetic VA portfolio. Moreover, the robustness of the performance of the proposed algorithm is tested with multiple simulation runs. Numerical results show that the proposed algorithm is able to accurately approximate different quantities of interest and the performance is robust with respect to different sets of parameter inputs. Finally, we show how our approach could be extended to potentially incorporate stochastic interest rates and estimate other Greeks such as Rho.

Phytase has long been used to decrease the inorganic phosphorus (Pi) input in poultry diet. The current study was conducted to investigate the effects of Pi supplementation on laying performance, egg quality and phosphate–calcium metabolism in Hy-Line Brown laying hens fed phytase. Layers (n = 504, 29 weeks old) were randomly assigned to seven treatments with six replicates of 12 birds. The corn–soybean meal-based diet contained 0.12% non-phytate phosphorus (nPP), 3.8% calcium, 2415 IU/kg vitamin D3 and 2000 FTU/kg phytase. Inorganic phosphorus (in the form of mono-dicalcium phosphate) was added into the basal diet to construct seven experimental diets; the final dietary nPP levels were 0.12%, 0.17%, 0.22%, 0.27%, 0.32%, 0.37% and 0.42%. The feeding trial lasted 12 weeks (hens from 29 to 40 weeks of age). Laying performance (housed laying rate, egg weight, egg mass, daily feed intake and feed conversion ratio) was weekly calculated. Egg quality (egg shape index, shell strength, shell thickness, albumen height, yolk colour and Haugh units), serum parameters (calcium, phosphorus, parathyroid hormone, calcitonin and 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D), tibia quality (breaking strength, and calcium, phosphorus and ash contents), intestinal gene expression (type IIb sodium-dependent phosphate cotransporter, NaPi-IIb) and phosphorus excretion were determined at the end of the trial. No differences were observed on laying performance, egg quality, serum parameters and tibia quality. Hens fed 0.17% nPP had increased (P < 0.01) duodenum NaPi-IIb expression compared to all other treatments. Phosphorus excretion linearly increased with an increase in dietary nPP (phosphorus excretion = 1.7916 × nPP + 0.2157; R2 = 0.9609, P = 0.001). In conclusion, corn–soybean meal-based diets containing 0.12% nPP, 3.8% calcium, 2415 IU/kg vitamin D3 and 2000 FTU/kg phytase would meet the requirements for egg production in Hy-Line Brown laying hens (29 to 40 weeks of age).