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Risk of suicide-related behaviors is elevated among military personnel transitioning to civilian life. An earlier report showed that high-risk U.S. Army soldiers could be identified shortly before this transition with a machine learning model that included predictors from administrative systems, self-report surveys, and geospatial data. Based on this result, a Veterans Affairs and Army initiative was launched to evaluate a suicide-prevention intervention for high-risk transitioning soldiers. To make targeting practical, though, a streamlined model and risk calculator were needed that used only a short series of self-report survey questions.
Methods
We revised the original model in a sample of n = 8335 observations from the Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers-Longitudinal Study (STARRS-LS) who participated in one of three Army STARRS 2011–2014 baseline surveys while in service and in one or more subsequent panel surveys (LS1: 2016–2018, LS2: 2018–2019) after leaving service. We trained ensemble machine learning models with constrained numbers of item-level survey predictors in a 70% training sample. The outcome was self-reported post-transition suicide attempts (SA). The models were validated in the 30% test sample.
Results
Twelve-month post-transition SA prevalence was 1.0% (s.e. = 0.1). The best constrained model, with only 17 predictors, had a test sample ROC-AUC of 0.85 (s.e. = 0.03). The 10–30% of respondents with the highest predicted risk included 44.9–92.5% of 12-month SAs.
Conclusions
An accurate SA risk calculator based on a short self-report survey can target transitioning soldiers shortly before leaving service for intervention to prevent post-transition SA.
Obesity is highly prevalent and disabling, especially in individuals with severe mental illness including bipolar disorders (BD). The brain is a target organ for both obesity and BD. Yet, we do not understand how cortical brain alterations in BD and obesity interact.
Methods:
We obtained body mass index (BMI) and MRI-derived regional cortical thickness, surface area from 1231 BD and 1601 control individuals from 13 countries within the ENIGMA-BD Working Group. We jointly modeled the statistical effects of BD and BMI on brain structure using mixed effects and tested for interaction and mediation. We also investigated the impact of medications on the BMI-related associations.
Results:
BMI and BD additively impacted the structure of many of the same brain regions. Both BMI and BD were negatively associated with cortical thickness, but not surface area. In most regions the number of jointly used psychiatric medication classes remained associated with lower cortical thickness when controlling for BMI. In a single region, fusiform gyrus, about a third of the negative association between number of jointly used psychiatric medications and cortical thickness was mediated by association between the number of medications and higher BMI.
Conclusions:
We confirmed consistent associations between higher BMI and lower cortical thickness, but not surface area, across the cerebral mantle, in regions which were also associated with BD. Higher BMI in people with BD indicated more pronounced brain alterations. BMI is important for understanding the neuroanatomical changes in BD and the effects of psychiatric medications on the brain.
Avian endoparasites play important roles in conservation, biodiversity and host evolution. Currently, little is known about the epidemiology of intestinal helminths and protozoans infecting wild birds of Britain and Ireland. This study aimed to determine the rates of parasite prevalence, abundance and infection intensity in wild passerines. Fecal samples (n = 755) from 18 bird families were collected from 13 sites across England, Wales and Ireland from March 2020 to June 2021. A conventional sodium nitrate flotation method allowed morphological identification and abundance estimation of eggs/oocysts. Associations with host family and age were examined alongside spatiotemporal and ecological factors using Bayesian phylogenetically controlled models. Parasites were detected in 20.0% of samples, with corvids and finches having the highest prevalences and intensities, respectively. Syngamus (33%) and Isospora (32%) were the most prevalent genera observed. Parasite prevalence and abundance differed amongst avian families and seasons, while infection intensity varied between families and regions. Prevalence was affected by diet diversity, while abundance differed by host age and habitat diversity. Infection intensity was higher in birds using a wider range of habitats, and doubled in areas with feeders present. The elucidation of these patterns will increase the understanding of parasite fauna in British and Irish birds.
Individuals often assess themselves as being less susceptible to common biases compared to others. This bias blind spot (BBS) is thought to represent a metacognitive error. In this research, we tested three explanations for the effect: The cognitive sophistication hypothesis posits that individuals who display the BBS more strongly are actually less biased than others. The introspection bias hypothesis posits that the BBS occurs because people rely on introspection more when assessing themselves compared to others. The conversational processes hypothesis posits that the effect is largely a consequence of the pragmatic aspects of the experimental situation rather than true metacognitive error. In two experiments (N = 1057) examining 18 social/motivational and cognitive biases, there was strong evidence of the BBS. Among the three hypotheses examined, the conversational processes hypothesis attracted the greatest support, thus raising questions about the extent to which the BBS is a metacognitive effect.
Migratory birds are implicated in dispersing haemosporidian parasites over great geographic distances. However, their role in sharing these vector-transmitted blood parasites with resident avian host species along their migration flyway is not well understood. We studied avian haemosporidian parasites in 10 localities where Chilean Elaenia, a long-distance Neotropical austral migrant species, spends part of its annual cycle to determine local parasite transmission among resident sympatric host species in the elaenia's distributional range across South America. We sampled 371 Chilean Elaenias and 1,818 birds representing 243 additional sympatric species from Brazilian wintering grounds to Argentinian breeding grounds. The 23 haemosporidian lineages found in Chilean Elaenias exhibited considerable variation in distribution, specialization, and turnover across the 10 avian communities in South America. Parasite lineage dissimilarity increased with geographic distance, and infection probability by Parahaemoproteus decreased in localities harbouring a more diverse haemosporidian fauna. Furthermore, blood smears from migrating Chilean Elaenias and local resident avian host species did not contain infective stages of Leucocytozoon, suggesting that transmission did not take place in the Brazilian stopover site. Our analyses confirm that this Neotropical austral migrant connects avian host communities and transports haemosporidian parasites along its distributional range in South America. However, the lack of transmissive stages at stopover site and the infrequent parasite lineage sharing between migratory host populations and residents at breeding and wintering grounds suggest that Chilean Elaenias do not play a significant role in dispersing haemosporidian parasites, nor do they influence local transmission across South America.
Adequate equitable recruitment of underrepresented groups in clinical research and trials is a national problem and remains a daunting challenge to translating research discoveries into effective healthcare practices. Engagement, recruitment, and retention (ER&R) training programs for Clinical Research Professionals (CRPs) often focus on policies and regulations. Although some training on the importance of diversity and inclusion in clinical research participation has recently been developed, there remains a need for training that couples critical equity, diversity, and inclusion (EDI) concepts with skill development in effective recruitment and retention strategies, regulations, and best practices.
Approach and methods:
We developed the ER&R Certificate program as a holistic approach to provide Duke University CRPs the opportunity to build competency in gap areas and to increase comfort in championing equitable partnerships with clinical research participants. The thirteen core and elective courses include blended learning elements, such as e-learning and wiki journaling prompts, to facilitate meaningful discussions. Pre- and post-assessments administered to CRP program participants and their managers assessed program impact on CRP skills in ER&R tasks and comfort in equitable, diverse, and inclusive engagement of clinical research participants.
Results and discussion:
Results from the first two cohorts indicate that CRPs perceived growth in their own comfort with program learning objectives, especially those centered on participant partnership and EDI principles, and most managers witnessed growth in competence and responsibility for ER&R-related tasks. Results suggest value in offering CRPs robust training programs that integrate EDI and ER&R training.
Incorporating theoretic insights from ageing biology could advance the “staying alive” hypothesis. Higher male extrinsic mortality can weaken selection against ageing-related diseases and self-preservation, leading to high male intrinsic mortality. This may incidentally result in female-biased longevity-promoting traits, a possibility that will require rigorous testing in order to disentangle from the adaptive self-preservation hypothesis presented in the target article.
Only a limited number of patients with major depressive disorder (MDD) respond to a first course of antidepressant medication (ADM). We investigated the feasibility of creating a baseline model to determine which of these would be among patients beginning ADM treatment in the US Veterans Health Administration (VHA).
Methods
A 2018–2020 national sample of n = 660 VHA patients receiving ADM treatment for MDD completed an extensive baseline self-report assessment near the beginning of treatment and a 3-month self-report follow-up assessment. Using baseline self-report data along with administrative and geospatial data, an ensemble machine learning method was used to develop a model for 3-month treatment response defined by the Quick Inventory of Depression Symptomatology Self-Report and a modified Sheehan Disability Scale. The model was developed in a 70% training sample and tested in the remaining 30% test sample.
Results
In total, 35.7% of patients responded to treatment. The prediction model had an area under the ROC curve (s.e.) of 0.66 (0.04) in the test sample. A strong gradient in probability (s.e.) of treatment response was found across three subsamples of the test sample using training sample thresholds for high [45.6% (5.5)], intermediate [34.5% (7.6)], and low [11.1% (4.9)] probabilities of response. Baseline symptom severity, comorbidity, treatment characteristics (expectations, history, and aspects of current treatment), and protective/resilience factors were the most important predictors.
Conclusions
Although these results are promising, parallel models to predict response to alternative treatments based on data collected before initiating treatment would be needed for such models to help guide treatment selection.
Barrett’s oesophagus (BE) is the precursor of oesophageal adenocarcinoma, which has become the most common type of oesophageal cancer in many Western populations. Existing evidence on diet and risk of BE predominantly comes from case–control studies, which are subject to recall bias in measurement of diet. We aimed to investigate the potential effect of diet, including macronutrients, carotenoids, food groups, specific food items, beverages and dietary scores, on risk of BE in over 20 000 participants of the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study. Diet at baseline (1990–1994) was measured using a food frequency questionnaire. The outcome was BE diagnosed between baseline and follow-up (2007–2010). Logistic regression models were used to estimate OR and 95 % CI for diet in relation to risk of BE. Intakes of leafy vegetables and fruit were inversely associated with risk of BE (highest v. lowest quartile: OR = 0·59; CI: 0·38, 0·94; P-trend = 0·02 and OR = 0·58; CI: 0·37, 0·93; P-trend = 0·02 respectively), as were dietary fibre and carotenoids. Stronger associations were observed for food than the nutrients found in them. Positive associations were observed for discretionary food (OR = 1·54; CI: 0·97, 2·44; P-trend = 0·04) and total fat intake (OR per 10 g/d = 1·11; CI: 1·00, 1·23), the association for fat was less robust in sensitivity analyses. No association was observed for meat, protein, dairy products or diet scores. Diet is a potential modifiable risk factor for BE. Public health and clinical guidelines that incorporate dietary recommendations could contribute to reduction in risk of BE and, thereby, oesophageal adenocarcinoma.
Background: Eye movements reveal neurodegenerative disease processes due to overlap between oculomotor circuitry and disease-affected areas. Characterizing oculomotor behaviour in context of cognitive function may enhance disease diagnosis and monitoring. We therefore aimed to quantify cognitive impairment in neurodegenerative disease using saccade behaviour and neuropsychology. Methods: The Ontario Neurodegenerative Disease Research Initiative recruited individuals with neurodegenerative disease: one of Alzheimer’s disease, mild cognitive impairment, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, frontotemporal dementia, Parkinson’s disease, or cerebrovascular disease. Patients (n=450, age 40-87) and healthy controls (n=149, age 42-87) completed a randomly interleaved pro- and anti-saccade task (IPAST) while their eyes were tracked. We explored the relationships of saccade parameters (e.g. task errors, reaction times) to one another and to cognitive domain-specific neuropsychological test scores (e.g. executive function, memory). Results: Task performance worsened with cognitive impairment across multiple diseases. Subsets of saccade parameters were interrelated and also differentially related to neuropsychology-based cognitive domain scores (e.g. antisaccade errors and reaction time associated with executive function). Conclusions: IPAST detects global cognitive impairment across neurodegenerative diseases. Subsets of parameters associate with one another, suggesting disparate underlying circuitry, and with different cognitive domains. This may have implications for use of IPAST as a cognitive screening tool in neurodegenerative disease.
The Hierarchical Taxonomy of Psychopathology (HiTOP) has emerged out of the quantitative approach to psychiatric nosology. This approach identifies psychopathology constructs based on patterns of co-variation among signs and symptoms. The initial HiTOP model, which was published in 2017, is based on a large literature that spans decades of research. HiTOP is a living model that undergoes revision as new data become available. Here we discuss advantages and practical considerations of using this system in psychiatric practice and research. We especially highlight limitations of HiTOP and ongoing efforts to address them. We describe differences and similarities between HiTOP and existing diagnostic systems. Next, we review the types of evidence that informed development of HiTOP, including populations in which it has been studied and data on its validity. The paper also describes how HiTOP can facilitate research on genetic and environmental causes of psychopathology as well as the search for neurobiologic mechanisms and novel treatments. Furthermore, we consider implications for public health programs and prevention of mental disorders. We also review data on clinical utility and illustrate clinical application of HiTOP. Importantly, the model is based on measures and practices that are already used widely in clinical settings. HiTOP offers a way to organize and formalize these techniques. This model already can contribute to progress in psychiatry and complement traditional nosologies. Moreover, HiTOP seeks to facilitate research on linkages between phenotypes and biological processes, which may enable construction of a system that encompasses both biomarkers and precise clinical description.
Fewer than half of patients with major depressive disorder (MDD) respond to psychotherapy. Pre-emptively informing patients of their likelihood of responding could be useful as part of a patient-centered treatment decision-support plan.
Methods
This prospective observational study examined a national sample of 807 patients beginning psychotherapy for MDD at the Veterans Health Administration. Patients completed a self-report survey at baseline and 3-months follow-up (data collected 2018–2020). We developed a machine learning (ML) model to predict psychotherapy response at 3 months using baseline survey, administrative, and geospatial variables in a 70% training sample. Model performance was then evaluated in the 30% test sample.
Results
32.0% of patients responded to treatment after 3 months. The best ML model had an AUC (SE) of 0.652 (0.038) in the test sample. Among the one-third of patients ranked by the model as most likely to respond, 50.0% in the test sample responded to psychotherapy. In comparison, among the remaining two-thirds of patients, <25% responded to psychotherapy. The model selected 43 predictors, of which nearly all were self-report variables.
Conclusions
Patients with MDD could pre-emptively be informed of their likelihood of responding to psychotherapy using a prediction tool based on self-report data. This tool could meaningfully help patients and providers in shared decision-making, although parallel information about the likelihood of responding to alternative treatments would be needed to inform decision-making across multiple treatments.
To describe the epidemiology of patients with nonintestinal carbapenem-resistant Enterobacterales (CRE) colonization and to compare clinical outcomes of these patients to those with CRE infection.
Design:
A secondary analysis of Consortium on Resistance Against Carbapenems in Klebsiella and other Enterobacteriaceae 2 (CRACKLE-2), a prospective observational cohort.
Setting:
A total of 49 US short-term acute-care hospitals.
Patients:
Patients hospitalized with CRE isolated from clinical cultures, April, 30, 2016, through August 31, 2017.
Methods:
We described characteristics of patients in CRACKLE-2 with nonintestinal CRE colonization and assessed the impact of site of colonization on clinical outcomes. We then compared outcomes of patients defined as having nonintestinal CRE colonization to all those defined as having infection. The primary outcome was a desirability of outcome ranking (DOOR) at 30 days. Secondary outcomes were 30-day mortality and 90-day readmission.
Results:
Of 547 patients with nonintestinal CRE colonization, 275 (50%) were from the urinary tract, 201 (37%) were from the respiratory tract, and 71 (13%) were from a wound. Patients with urinary tract colonization were more likely to have a more desirable clinical outcome at 30 days than those with respiratory tract colonization, with a DOOR probability of better outcome of 61% (95% confidence interval [CI], 53%–71%). When compared to 255 patients with CRE infection, patients with CRE colonization had a similar overall clinical outcome, as well as 30-day mortality and 90-day readmission rates when analyzed in aggregate or by culture site. Sensitivity analyses demonstrated similar results using different definitions of infection.
Conclusions:
Patients with nonintestinal CRE colonization had outcomes similar to those with CRE infection. Clinical outcomes may be influenced more by culture site than classification as “colonized” or “infected.”
Caregivers of patients with cancer are at significant risk for existential distress. Such distress negatively impacts caregivers’ quality of life and capacity to serve in their role as healthcare proxies, and ultimately, contributes to poor bereavement outcomes. Our team developed Meaning-Centered Psychotherapy for Cancer Caregivers (MCP-C), the first targeted psychosocial intervention that directly addresses existential distress in caregivers.
Method
Nine caregivers of patients with glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) enrolled in a pilot randomized controlled trial evaluating the feasibility, acceptability, and effects of MCP-C, and completed in-depth interviews about their experience in the therapy. One focus group with three MCP-C interventionists was also completed.
Results
Four key themes emerged from interviews: (1) MCP-C validated caregivers’ experience of caregiving; (2) MCP-C helped participants reframe their “caregiving identity” as a facet of their larger self-identity, by placing caregiving in the context of their life's journey; (3) MCP-C enabled caregivers to find ways to assert their agency through caregiving; and (4) the structure and sequence of sessions made MCP-C accessible and feasible. Feedback from interventionists highlighted several potential manual changes and overall ways in which MCP-C can help facilitate caregivers’ openness to discussing death and engaging in advanced care planning discussions with the patient.
Significance of results
The overarching goal of MCP-C is to allow caregivers to concurrently experience meaning and suffering; the intervention does not seek to deny the reality of challenges endured by caregivers, but instead to foster a connection to meaning and purpose alongside their suffering. Through in-depth interviews with caregivers and a focus group with MCP interventionists, we have refined and improved our MCP-C manual so that it can most effectively assist caregivers in experiencing meaning and purpose, despite inevitable suffering.
The distinct turbulence dynamics and transport modulated by a common seagrass species were investigated experimentally using a flexible surrogate canopy in a refractive-index-matching environment that enabled full optical access. The surrogate seagrass replicated the dynamic behaviour and morphological properties of its natural counterpart. The flows studied were subcritical with Froude numbers $Fr<0.26$ and concerned five Reynolds numbers $Re\in [3.4\times 10^{4}, 1.1\times 10^{5}]$ and Cauchy numbers $Ca\in [120, 1200]$. Complementary rigid canopy experiments were also included to aid comparative insight. The flow was quantified in wall-normal planes in a developed region using high-frame-rate particle image velocimetry. Results show that the deflection and coordinated waving motion of the blades redistributed the Reynolds stresses above and below the canopy top. Critically, in-canopy turbulence associated with the seagrass lacked periodic stem wake vortex shedding present in the rigid canopy, yet the flexible canopy induced vortex shedding from the blade tips. Inspection of spatial and temporal characteristics of coherent flow structures using spectral proper orthogonal decomposition reveals that Kelvin–Helmholtz-type vortices are the dominant flow structures associated with the waving motion of the seagrass and that modulated the local flow exchange in both rigid and flexible canopies. A barrier-like effect produced by the blade deflections blocked large-scale turbulence transport, thereby reducing vortex penetration into the canopy. In addition, we uncovered a transition from sweep-dominated to ejection-dominated behaviour in the surrogate seagrass. We hypothesise that the vortices created during the upward blade motion period play a major role in the sweep-to-ejection-dominated transition. Conditionally averaged quadrant analysis on the downward and upward blade motion supports this contention.
Capacity development is critical to long-term conservation success, yet we lack a robust and rigorous understanding of how well its effects are being evaluated. A comprehensive summary of who is monitoring and evaluating capacity development interventions, what is being evaluated and how, would help in the development of evidence-based guidance to inform design and implementation decisions for future capacity development interventions and evaluations of their effectiveness. We built an evidence map by reviewing peer-reviewed and grey literature published since 2000, to identify case studies evaluating capacity development interventions in biodiversity conservation and natural resource management. We used inductive and deductive approaches to develop a coding strategy for studies that met our criteria, extracting data on the type of capacity development intervention, evaluation methods, data and analysis types, categories of outputs and outcomes assessed, and whether the study had a clear causal model and/or used a systems approach. We found that almost all studies assessed multiple outcome types: most frequent was change in knowledge, followed by behaviour, then attitude. Few studies evaluated conservation outcomes. Less than half included an explicit causal model linking interventions to expected outcomes. Half of the studies considered external factors that could influence the efficacy of the capacity development intervention, and few used an explicit systems approach. We used framework synthesis to situate our evidence map within the broader literature on capacity development evaluation. Our evidence map (including a visual heat map) highlights areas of low and high representation in investment in research on the evaluation of capacity development.
With an annual growth in travel demand of about 5% globally, managing the environmental impact is a challenge. In 2019, the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) issued emission reduction targets, including well-to-wake greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduced at least 50% from 2005 levels by 2050. This discusses several technologies from an aircraft design perspective that can contribute to achieving these targets. One thing is certain: aircraft will look different in the future. The Transonic Truss-Braced Wing and Flying V configurations are promising significant efficiency improvements over conventional configurations. Electric propulsion, in various architectures, is becoming a feasible option for general aviation and commuter aircraft. It will be a growing field of aviation with zero-emissions flight and opportunities for special missions. Lastly, this paper discusses methods and design processes that include all relevant disciplines to ensure that the aircraft is optimised as a complete system. While empirical methods are essential for initial design, Multidisciplinary Design Optimisation (MDO) incorporates models and simulations integrated in an optimisation environment to capture critical trade-offs. Concurrent design places domain experts in one site to facilitate collaboration, interaction, and joint decision-making, and to ensure all disciplines are equally considered. It is supported by a Collaborative Design Facility (CDF), an information technology facility with connected hardware and software tools for design analysis.
Antisociality across adolescence and young adulthood puts individuals at high risk of developing a variety of problems. Prior research has linked antisociality to autonomic nervous system and endocrinological functioning. However, there is large heterogeneity in antisocial behaviors, and these neurobiological measures are rarely studied conjointly, limited to small specific studies with narrow age ranges, and yield mixed findings due to the type of behavior examined.
Methods
We harmonized data from 1489 participants (9–27 years, 67% male), from six heterogeneous samples. In the resulting dataset, we tested relations between distinct dimensions of antisociality and heart rate, pre-ejection period (PEP), respiratory sinus arrhythmia, respiration rate, skin conductance levels, testosterone, basal cortisol, and the cortisol awakening response (CAR), and test the role of age throughout adolescence and young adulthood.
Results
Three dimensions of antisociality were uncovered: ‘callous-unemotional (CU)/manipulative traits’, ‘intentional aggression/conduct’, and ‘reactivity/impulsivity/irritability’. Shorter PEPs and higher testosterone were related to CU/manipulative traits, and a higher CAR is related to both CU/manipulative traits and intentional aggression/conduct. These effects were stable across age.
Conclusions
Across a heterogeneous sample and consistent across development, the CAR may be a valuable measure to link to CU/manipulative traits and intentional aggression, while sympathetic arousal and testosterone are additionally valuable to understand CU/manipulative traits. Together, these findings deepen our understanding of the fundamental mechanisms underlying different components of antisociality. Finally, we illustrate the potential of using current statistical techniques for combining multiple datasets to draw robust conclusions about biobehavioral associations.