The incidence of scarlet fever has increased dramatically in recent years in Chongqing, China, but there has no effective method to forecast it. This study aimed to develop a forecasting model of the incidence of scarlet fever using a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. Monthly scarlet fever data between 2011 and 2019 in Chongqing, China were retrieved from the Notifiable Infectious Disease Surveillance System. From 2011 to 2019, a total of 5073 scarlet fever cases were reported in Chongqing, the male-to-female ratio was 1.44:1, children aged 3–9 years old accounted for 81.86% of the cases, while 42.70 and 42.58% of the reported cases were students and kindergarten children, respectively. The data from 2011 to 2018 were used to fit a SARIMA model and data in 2019 were used to validate the model. The normalised Bayesian information criterion (BIC), the coefficient of determination (R2) and the root mean squared error (RMSE) were used to evaluate the goodness-of-fit of the fitted model. The optimal SARIMA model was identified as (3, 1, 3) (3, 1, 0)12. The RMSE and mean absolute per cent error (MAPE) were used to assess the accuracy of the model. The RMSE and MAPE of the predicted values were 19.40 and 0.25 respectively, indicating that the predicted values matched the observed values reasonably well. Taken together, the SARIMA model could be employed to forecast scarlet fever incidence trend, providing support for scarlet fever control and prevention.

The epidemic of tuberculosis has posed a serious burden in Qinghai province, it is necessary to clarify the epidemiological characteristics and spatial-temporal distribution of TB for future prevention and control measures. We used descriptive epidemiological methods and spatial statistical analysis including spatial correlation and spatial-temporal analysis in this study. Furthermore, we applied an exponential smoothing model for TB epidemiological trend forecasting. Of 43 859 TB cases, the sex ratio was 1.27:1 (M:F), and the average annual TB registered incidence was 70.00/100 000 of 2009–2019. More cases were reported in March and April, and the worst TB stricken regions were the prefectures of Golog and Yushu. High TB registered incidences were seen in males, farmers and herdsmen, Tibetans, or elderly people. 7132 cases were intractable, which were recurrent, drug resistant, or co-infected with other infections. Three likely cases clusters with significant high risk were found by spatial-temporal scan on data of 2009–2019. The exponential smoothing winters' additive model was selected as the best-fitting model to forecast monthly TB cases in the future. This research indicated that TB in Qinghai is still a serious threaten to the local residents' health. Multi-departmental collaboration and funds special for TB treatments and control are still needed, and the exponential smoothing model is promising which could be applied for forecasting of TB epidemic trend in this high-altitude province.

A smart morphing winglet driven by piezoelectric Macro Fiber Composite (MFC) is designed to adjust cant angle autonomously for various flight conditions. The smart morphing winglet is composed of the MFC actuator, DC-DC converter, power supply, winglet part and wing part. A hinge is designed to transfer the bending deformation of intelligent MFC bending actuator to rotation of the winglet structure so as to achieve the adaptive cant angle. Experimental and numerical work are conducted to evaluate the performance of smart morphing winglet. It is demonstrated that the proposed intelligent MFC bending actuator has an excellent bending performance and load resistance. This smart morphing winglet exhibits the excellent characteristic of flexibility on large deformation and lightweight. Moreover, a series of wind tunnel tests are performed, which demonstrate that the winglet driven by intelligent MFC bending actuator produces sufficient deformation in various wind speed. At high wind speed, the cant angle of the winglet can reach 16 degrees, which is still considered to be very useful for improving the aerodynamic performance of the aircraft. The aerodynamic characteristics are investigated by wind tunnel tests with various attack angles. As a result, when the morphing winglet is actuated, the lift-to-drag ratio could vary up to 11.9% and 6.4%, respectively, under wind speeds of 5.4 and 8.5m/s. Meanwhile, different flight phases such as take-off, cruise and landing are considered to improve aerodynamic performance by adjusting the cant angle of winglet. The smart morphing winglet varies the aerofoil autonomously by controlling the low winglet device input voltage to remain optimal aerodynamic performance during the flight process. It demonstrates the feasibility of piezoelectric composites driving intelligent aircraft.

We investigate the heat transfer and coherent structures in Taylor–Couette (TC) flows that undergo thermal convection driven by an axially applied temperature gradient. Direct numerical simulations are performed in a Rayleigh number range $10^6 \leq Ra \leq 3 \times 10^8$ for Prandtl number $Pr = 4.38$ and with the shear Reynolds number up to $Re = 10^4$. When the rotation number $R_f$ increases, the flows undergo a transition from buoyancy-dominated ($R_f<1$) to shear-dominated convection ($R_f>1$). In the buoyancy-dominated regime with weak rotations, the flow features are similar to those in Rayleigh–Bénard (RB) convection with large-scale plumes emanating from the thermal boundary layers. In this regime, the $Re$-dependence of heat transport $Nu$ is sensitive to $Ra$. We find that for low $Ra$, $Nu$ decreases with increasing $Re$ and becomes independent of $Re$ at high $Ra$. In the shear-dominated regime, the flow structures are characterised by Taylor vortices (TVs), which effectively enhance the heat transport. With sufficiently high Reynolds number for $2000< Re \le 10\,000$, the flow structures are dominated by turbulent TVs, and the transport scaling laws of heat and angular velocity fluxes become independent of buoyancy. We report that in this turbulent regime the axial heat-transport scaling $(Nu\sim Re^{0.578\pm 0.018})$ is consistent with the scaling of radial angular-momentum transport $(Nu_{\omega }\sim Re^{0.581\pm 0.026})$.

Thermocapillary patterning, namely, the formation of micro/nano patterns in a liquid film by surface deformation induced by an imposed thermal gradient, has enjoyed widespread applications in engineering. In this paper, we present the development of analytical and numerical models and model analyses to predict the equilibrium states of a deformed liquid polymer film under the action of thermocapillary forces. The deformation is found to be dependent on a non-dimensional parameter $\Im \equiv Ma \, Ca$, with Ma denoting the Marangoni number and Ca the capillary number. Model analyses show that a hysteresis phenomenon is associated with the thermocapillary deformation of the film with increasing and then decreasing $\Im$. When $\Im$ is increased above a critical value ${\Im _{c,1}}$, significant deformation occurs in the film until the polymer touches the top solid template. Then, if $\Im$ is allowed to decrease, the polymer film would not detach from the template until $\Im$ is decreased below another critical value ${\Im _{c,2}}$ (usually ${\Im _{c,2}} < {\Im _{c,1}}$). With $\Im \in [{\Im _{c,2}},\;{\Im _{c,1}}]$, there exist multiple (three at the maximum) equilibrium states. The Lyapunov energy analysis of these states reveals that one equilibrium state is stable, another is metastable and the third one is unstable.

This paper mainly focuses on the cooperative control of formation configuration for multiple flight vehicles in the three-dimensional space. Considering the external disturbance of the system, the adaptive non-singular terminal sliding mode control law (NTSMC) is designed based on the virtual leader-follower method, which aims to ensure that each flight vehicle reaches the expected terminal position in a limited time and meet the configuration constraints. Further considering the first-order dynamic characteristic of the autopilot, a novel second-order sliding mode control (SOSMC) law is deduced with using the estimated information of sliding mode disturbance observer. The proposed control method ensures that all flight vehicles form the required space formation configuration simultaneously at a pre-designed time, and the chattering phenomenon of the sliding mode surface and acceleration response that nears the equilibrium point is effectively weaken. The stability of the proposed control law is verified by theoretical analysis and lots of mathematical simulations. The results show that the control algorithm in this paper can be used to guidance the formation controller design of multiple flight vehicles in the mid-guidance phase to some extent, and thus the cooperative flight stability of the system can be effectively improved.

Poroelastic effects have been of great interest in the seismic literature as they have been identified as a major cause of wave attenuation in heterogeneous porous media. The observed attenuation in the seismic wave can be explained in part by energy loss to fluid motion in the pores. On the other hand, it is known that the attenuation is particularly pronounced in stratified structures where the scale of spatial heterogeneity is much smaller than the seismic wavelength. Understanding of poroelastic effects on seismic wave attenuation in heterogeneous porous media has largely relied on numerical experiments. In this work, we present a homogenisation technique to obtain an upscaled viscoelastic model that captures seismic wave attenuation when the sub-seismic scale heterogeneity is periodic. The upscaled viscoelastic model directly relates seismic wave attenuation to the material properties of the heterogeneous structure. We verify our upscaled viscoelastic model against a full poroelastic model in numerical experiments. Our homogenisation technique suggests a new approach for solving coupled equations of motion.

It is important to understand the temporal trend of the paediatric severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) viral load to estimate the transmission potential of children in schools and communities. We determined the differences in SARS-CoV-2 viral load dynamics between nasopharyngeal samples of infected asymptomatic and symptomatic children. Serial cycle threshold values of SARS-CoV-2 from the nasopharynx of a cohort of infected children were collected for analysis. Among 17 infected children, 10 (58.8%) were symptomatic. Symptomatic children, when compared to asymptomatic children, had higher viral loads (mean cycle threshold on day 7 of illness 28.6 vs. 36.7, P = 0.02). Peak SARS-CoV-2 viral loads occurred around day 2 of illness in infected children. Although we were unable to directly demonstrate infectivity, the detection of significant amount of virus in the upper airway of asymptomatic children suggest that they have the potential to shed and transmit SARS-CoV-2. Our study highlights the importance of contact tracing and screening for SARS-CoV-2 in children with epidemiological risk factors regardless of their symptom status, in order to improve containment of the virus in the community, including educational settings.

The aim of this study was to explore the frequency and distribution of gene mutations that are related to isoniazid (INH) and rifampin (RIF)-resistance in the strains of the multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M.tb) in Beijing, China. In this retrospective study, the genotypes of 173 MDR-TB strains were analysed by spoligotyping. The katG, inhA genes and the promoter region of inhA, in which genetic mutations confer INH resistance; and the rpoB gene, in which genetic mutations confer RIF resistance, were sequenced. The percentage of resistance-associated nucleotide alterations among the strains of different genotypes was also analysed. In total, 90.8% (157/173) of the MDR strains belonged to the Beijing genotype. Population characteristics were not significantly different among the strains of different genotypes. In total, 50.3% (87/173) strains had mutations at codon S315T of katG; 16.8% (29/173) of strains had mutations in the inhA promoter region; of them, 5.5% (15/173) had point mutations at −15 base (C→T) of the inhA promoter region. In total, 86.7% (150/173) strains had mutations at rpoB gene; of them, 40% (69/173) strains had mutations at codon S531L of rpoB. The frequency of mutations was not significantly higher in Beijing genotypic MDR strains than in non-Beijing genotypes. Beijing genotypic MDR-TB strains were spreading in Beijing and present a major challenge to TB control in this region. A high prevalence of katG Ser315Thr, inhA promoter region (−15C→T) and rpoB (S531L) mutations was observed. Molecular diagnostics based on gene mutations was a useful method for rapid detection of MDR-TB in Beijing, China.

Glutamine synthetase (GS) and glutamate synthase (GOGAT) play a central role in plant nitrogen (N) metabolism. In order to study the effect of powdery mildew (Blumeria graminis f. sp. tritici, Bgt) on N metabolism, field experiments were carried out to evaluate GS and GOGAT activity, GS expression and grain protein content (GPC) in susceptible (Xi'nong 979) and resistant (Zhengmai 103) wheat cultivars under three treatments. The three treatments were no inoculation (CK), inoculated once with Bgt (MP) and inoculated nine times with Bgt (HP). For Xi'nong 979, the activities of GS and GOGAT in grains as well as GS activity in flag leaves increased at 10–15 days after anthesis (DAA), and decreased significantly at 15 or 20–30 DAA in HP and MP. However, GS activity in grains decreased from 20 DAA, which was later than that of flag leaves (15 DAA). At the same time, GS expression in grains was up-regulated at early stage, with GS1 at 10 DAA and GS2 at 15 DAA, followed by a continuous down-regulation. This result indicated that GS and GOGAT activity as well as GS expression were inhibited by powdery mildew, indicating that N metabolism in grains was inhibited at 20–30 DAA. The current study also found out that the yield of the susceptible cultivar decreased significantly, while its GPC increased obviously in HP. It was shown that the increase of GPC was not due to the enhancement of N metabolism, but due to the passive increase caused by yield reduction.

Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) is a disease with a high case-fatality rate that is caused by infection with the SFTS virus (SFTSV). Five electronic databases were systematically searched to identify relevant articles published from 1 January 2011 to 1 December 2019. The pooled rates with 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated by a fixed-effect or random-effect model analysis. The results showed that 92 articles were included in this meta-analysis. For the confirmed SFTS cases, the case-fatality rate was 0.15 (95% CI 0.11, 0.18). Two hundred and ninety-six of 1384 SFTS patients indicated that they had been bitten by ticks and the biting rate was 0.21 (95% CI 0.16, 0.26). The overall pooled seroprevalence of SFTSV antibodies among the healthy population was 0.04 (95% CI 0.03, 0.05). For the overall seroprevalence of SFTSV in animals, the seroprevalence of SFTSV was 0.25 (95% CI 0.20, 0.29). The infection rate of SFTSV in ticks was 0.08 (95% CI 0.05, 0.11). In conclusion, ticks can serve as transmitting vectors of SFTSVs and reservoir hosts. Animals can be infected by tick bites, and as a reservoir host, SFTSV circulates continuously between animals and ticks in nature. Humans are infected by tick bites and direct contact with patient secretions.

The Spoon-billed Sandpiper Calidris pygmaea is a ‘Critically Endangered’ migratory shorebird. The species faces an array of threats in its non-breeding range, making conservation intervention essential. However, conservation efforts are reliant on identifying the species’ key stopover and wintering sites. Using Maximum Entropy models, we predicted Spoon-billed Sandpiper distribution across the non-breeding range, using data from recent field surveys and satellite tracking. Model outputs suggest only a limited number of stopover sites are suitable for migrating birds, with sites in the Yellow Sea and on the Jiangsu coast in China highlighted as particularly important. All the previously known core wintering sites were identified by the model including the Ganges-Brahmaputra Delta, Nan Thar Island and the Gulf of Mottama. In addition, the model highlighted sites subsequently found to be occupied, and pinpointed potential new sites meriting investigation, notably on Borneo and Sulawesi, and in parts of India and the Philippines. A comparison between the areas identified as most likely to be occupied and protected areas showed that very few locations are covered by conservation designations. Known sites must be managed for conservation as a priority, and potential new sites should be surveyed as soon as is feasible to assess occupancy status. Site protection should take place in concert with conservation interventions including habitat management, discouraging hunting, and fostering alternative livelihoods.

To describe the laboratory findings of cases of death with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and to establish a scoring system for predicting death, we conducted this single-centre, retrospective, observational study including 336 adult patients (≥18 years old) with severe or critically ill COVID-19 admitted in two wards of Union Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology in Wuhan, who had definite outcomes (death or discharge) between 1 February 2020 and 13 March 2020. Single variable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to identify mortality-related factors. We combined multiple factors to predict mortality, which was validated by receiver operating characteristic curves. As a result, in a total of 336 patients, 34 (10.1%) patients died during hospitalisation. Through multivariable logistic regression, we found that decreased lymphocyte ratio (Lymr, %) (odds ratio, OR 0.574, P < 0.001), elevated blood urea nitrogen (BUN) (OR 1.513, P = 0.009), and raised D-dimer (DD) (OR 1.334, P = 0.002) at admission were closely related to death. The combined prediction model was developed by these factors with a sensitivity of 100.0% and specificity of 97.2%. In conclusion, decreased Lymr, elevated BUN, and raised DD were found to be in association with death outcomes in critically ill patients with COVID-19. A scoring system was developed to predict the clinical outcome of these patients.

Guanidinoacetic acid (GAA) can improve the growth performance of bulls. This study investigated the influences of GAA addition on growth, nutrient digestion, ruminal fermentation and serum metabolites in bulls. Forty-eight Angus bulls were randomly allocated to experimental treatments, that is, control, low-GAA (LGAA), medium-GAA (MGAA) and high-GAA (HGAA), with GAA supplementation at 0, 0.3, 0.6 and 0.9 g/kg DM, respectively. Bulls were fed a basal diet containing 500 g/kg DM concentrate and 500 g/kg DM roughage. The experimental period was 104 days, with 14 days for adaptation and 90 days for data collection. Bulls in the MGAA and HGAA groups had higher DM intake and average daily gain than bulls in the LGAA and control groups. The feed conversion ratio was lowest in MGAA and highest in the control. Bulls receiving 0.9 g/kg DM GAA addition had higher digestibility of DM, organic matter, NDF and ADF than bulls in other groups. The digestibility of CP was higher for HGAA than for LGAA and control. The ruminal pH was lower for MGAA, and the total volatile fatty acid concentration was greater for MGAA and HGAA than for the control. The acetate proportion and acetate-to-propionate ratio were lower for MGAA than for LGAA and control. The propionate proportion was higher for MGAA than for control. Bulls receiving GAA addition showed decreased ruminal ammonia N. Bulls in MGAA and HGAA had higher cellobiase, pectinase and protease activities and Butyrivibrio fibrisolvens, Prevotella ruminicola and Ruminobacter amylophilus populations than bulls in LGAA and control. However, the total protozoan population was lower for MGAA and HGAA than for LGAA and control. The total bacterial and Ruminococcus flavefaciens populations increased with GAA addition. The blood level of creatine was higher for HGAA, and the activity of l-arginine glycine amidine transferase was lower for MGAA and HGAA, than for control. The blood activity of guanidine acetate N-methyltransferase and the level of folate decreased in the GAA addition groups. The results indicated that dietary addition of 0.6 or 0.9 g/kg DM GAA improved growth performance, nutrient digestion and ruminal fermentation in bulls.

In this paper, the generation of relativistic electron mirrors (REM) and the reflection of an ultra-short laser off the mirrors are discussed, applying two-dimension particle-in-cell simulations. REMs with ultra-high acceleration and expanding velocity can be produced from a solid nanofoil illuminated normally by an ultra-intense femtosecond laser pulse with a sharp rising edge. Chirped attosecond pulse can be produced through the reflection of a counter-propagating probe laser off the accelerating REM. In the electron moving frame, the plasma frequency of the REM keeps decreasing due to its rapid expansion. The laser frequency, on the contrary, keeps increasing due to the acceleration of REM and the relativistic Doppler shift from the lab frame to the electron moving frame. Within an ultra-short time interval, the two frequencies will be equal in the electron moving frame, which leads to the resonance between laser and REM. The reflected radiation near this interval and corresponding spectra will be amplified due to the resonance. Through adjusting the arriving time of the probe laser, a certain part of the reflected field could be selectively amplified or depressed, leading to the selective adjustment of the corresponding spectra.