In the transitioning era towards the COVID-19 endemic, there is still a sizable population that has never been vaccinated against COVID-19 in the Netherlands. This study employs Bayesian spatio-temporal modelling to assess the relative chances of COVID-19 vaccination uptake – first, second, and booster doses – both at the municipal and regional (public health services) levels. Incorporating ecological regression modelling to consider socio-demographic factors, our study unveils a diverse spatio-temporal distribution of vaccination uptake. Notably, the areas located in or around the Dutch main urban area (Randstad) and regions that are more religiously conservative exhibit a below-average likelihood of vaccination. Analysis at the municipal level within public health service regions indicates internal heterogeneity. Additionally, areas with a higher proportion of non-Western migrants consistently show lower chances of vaccination across vaccination dose scenarios. These findings highlight the need for tailored national and local vaccination strategies. Particularly, more regional efforts are essential to address vaccination disparities, especially in regions with elevated proportions of marginalized populations. This insight informs ongoing COVID-19 campaigns, emphasizing the importance of targeted interventions for optimizing health outcomes during the second booster phase, especially in regions with a relatively higher proportion of marginalized populations.

In epidemiological investigations, pathogen genomics can provide insights and test epidemiological hypotheses that would not have been possible through traditional epidemiology. Tools to synthesize genomic analysis with other types of data are a key requirement of genomic epidemiology. We propose a new ‘phylepic’ visualization that combines a phylogenomic tree with an epidemic curve. The combination visually links the molecular time represented in the tree to the calendar time in the epidemic curve, a correspondence that is not easily represented by existing tools. Using an example derived from a foodborne bacterial outbreak, we demonstrated that the phylepic chart communicates that what appeared to be a point-source outbreak was in fact composed of cases associated with two genetically distinct clades of bacteria. We provide an R package implementing the chart. We expect that visualizations that place genomic analyses within the epidemiological context will become increasingly important for outbreak investigations and public health surveillance of infectious diseases.

This paper presents an artificial neural network (ANN)-based nonlinear model predictive visual servoing method for mobile robots. The ANN model is developed for state predictions to mitigate the unknown dynamics and parameter uncertainty issues of the physics-based (PB) model. To enhance both the model generalization and accuracy for control, a two-stage ANN training process is proposed. In a pretraining stage, highly diversified data accommodating broad operating ranges is generated by a PB kinematics model and used to train an ANN model first. In the second stage, the test data collected from the actual system, which is limited in both the diversity and the volume, are employed to further finetune the ANN weights. Path-following experiments are conducted to compare the effects of various ANN models on nonlinear model predictive control and visual servoing performance. The results confirm that the pretraining stage is necessary for improving model generalization. Without pretraining (i.e., model trained only with the test data), the robot fails to follow the entire track. Weight finetuning with the captured data further improves the tracking accuracy by 0.07–0.15 cm on average.

In order to gain a better understanding of clay and Fe (oxyhydr)oxide minerals formed during pedogenesis of basalts in tropical monsoonal Hainan (southern China), a basalt-derived lateritic soil at Nanyang, Hainan, was investigated comprehensively. The results show that the lateritic regolith consists uniformly of kaolinite and Fe (oxyhydr)oxide minerals, with trace gibbsite only in the AE horizon. Abundant dioctahedral smectite in the basalt bedrock formed due to primary hydrothermal alteration, and transformed to kaolinite rapidly in the highly weathering saprolite horizon. The ‘crystallinity’ of kaolinite is notably low and its Hinckley index fluctuates along the soil profile, resulting from intense ferrolysis due to fluctuations between wet/dry climate conditions. From the base to the top of the profile, maghemite shows a decreasing trend, whereas magnetite, hematite, and goethite exhibit a slightly increasing trend, indicating that maghemite formed as an initial product of basalt weathering. Formation of Fe (oxyhydr)oxide species in basalt-derived soil is mainly controlled by local environmental conditions such as soil moisture, redox, and acidic conditions; thus, iron mineral-based paleoclimatic proxies could not be used for subtropical to tropical soils. The highly weathered saprolite has a similar δ56Fe value (+0.06‰) to that (+0.07‰) of the parent rock, while the AE to middle E horizons have greater δ56Fe values of +0.12‰ to +0.19‰. Fe isotopic signatures correlate positively with the Fe mass transfer coefficient (R2=0.77, n=6, ρ<0.05), indicating repetitive weathering and relative accumulation of isotopically heavier Fe in the upper soil horizons, which occurred by reductive dissolution of organic matter under oxic conditions, as reflected by the greater U/Th.

Syphilis remains a serious public health problem in mainland China that requires attention, modelling to describe and predict its prevalence patterns can help the government to develop more scientific interventions. The seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, long short-term memory network (LSTM) model, hybrid SARIMA-LSTM model, and hybrid SARIMA-nonlinear auto-regressive models with exogenous inputs (SARIMA-NARX) model were used to simulate the time series data of the syphilis incidence from January 2004 to November 2023 respectively. Compared to the SARIMA, LSTM, and SARIMA-LSTM models, the median absolute deviation (MAD) value of the SARIMA-NARX model decreases by 352.69%, 4.98%, and 3.73%, respectively. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) value decreases by 73.7%, 23.46%, and 13.06%, respectively. The root mean square error (RMSE) value decreases by 68.02%, 26.68%, and 23.78%, respectively. The mean absolute error (MAE) value decreases by 70.90%, 23.00%, and 21.80%, respectively. The hybrid SARIMA-NARX and SARIMA-LSTM methods predict syphilis cases more accurately than the basic SARIMA and LSTM methods, so that can be used for governments to develop long-term syphilis prevention and control programs. In addition, the predicted cases still maintain a fairly high level of incidence, so there is an urgent need to develop more comprehensive prevention strategies.

Background: Surgical delays are in common in Canada. Wait times in elective spine surgery and their impact on outcomes remain uncharacterized. Methods: This was a single-center analysis of elective spine surgery data between 2009-2020. Wait times between referral and consultation (T1), consultation and surgical booking (Ti), and booking and surgery (T2) were assessed. Results: 2041 patients were included. Longitudinal analyses were adjusted for age, sex, diagnosis, surgical volume, while outcomes analyses were age and sex-adjusted. Total T1+Ti+T2 increased 8.1% annually (p<0.001). T1 decreased 4.3% annually (p=0.032). It was not associated with adverse events (AEs) or disposition. Every 100 days of T1 was associated with 1.0% longer hospitalization (p=0.001). Ti increased 21.0% annually (p<0.001). Every 100 days of Ti was associated with 2.9% increased odds of an adverse event (p=0.002), 1.8% longer hospitalization (p<0.001), and 15.9% increased likelihood of discharge home (p<0.001). T2 increased 7.0% annually (p<0.001) and was not associated with AEs. Every 100 days of T2 was associated with 11.6% longer hospitalization (p<0.001) and 76.5% increased likelihood of discharge home (p<0.001). Conclusions: Total wait times for elective spine surgery have increased between 2009-2020. Notably, Ti increased ninefold and was associated with AEs. This study highlights areas of delay and targets for healthcare optimization.

Background: Interest in artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) has been growing in neuroradiology, but there is limited knowledge on how this interest has manifested into research and the field’s trends, challenges, and future directions. Methods: The American Journal of Neuroradiology was queried for original research articles published since inception (Jan. 1, 1980) to Sept. 19, 2022 that contained any of the following key terms: “machine learning”, “artificial intelligence”, or “radiomics”. Articles were screened, categorized into Statistical Modelling (Type 1), AI/ML Development (Type 2), or End-user Application (Type 3) and then bibliometrically analyzed. Results: A total of 124 articles were identified with 85% being non-integration focused (Type 1 n = 41, Type 2 n = 65) and the remaining (n = 18) being Type 3. The total number of articles published grew two-fold in the last five years, with Type 2 articles mainly driving this growth. While most (66%) Type 2 articles were led by a radiologist with 55% possessing a postgraduate degree, a minority of Type 2 articles addressed bias (15%) and explainability (20%). Conclusions: The results of this study highlight areas for improvement but also strengths that stakeholders can consider when promoting the shift towards integrating practical AI/ML solutions in neuroradiology.

Background: Subdural and subgaleal drains are equally effective after burrhole craniostomy for chronic subdural haematoma, however the optimal location of drains after minicraniotomy is not clear. As such we present the first study to assess this. Methods: Consecutive patients undergoing minicraniotomy for cSDH between 2019 and 2023 at a single institution were included. Subgaleal drains were placed exclusively by a single surgeon with the rest of the department utilising standard subdural drains. Cases were stratified by drain location. Primary outcomes included changes in functional status (Modified Rankin Score, mRS) at 3 months from preoperative baseline. Results: A total of 137 patients were included, of which 24.6% received subgaleal drains. Discharge home was higher in the subgaleal group compared to subdural group (79.4% vs 57.3%, p=0.02). Subgaleal drain location (p<0.0001) and better preoperative GCS (p=0.01) were predictors of improved 3 month mRS. Worse premorbid mRS (p=0.002), subdural drain (p=0.004), and decreased consciousness at presentation (p<0.002) were predictors of not being discharged home. Surgical recurrence was lower in the subgaleal group than the subdural group (2.9% vs 13.6%, p=0.12), but not statistically significant. Conclusions: Subgaleal drains are associated with shorter hospitalisation, greater chance of discharge home, and better functional outcomes than subdural drains.

Background: Meningiomas are the most common intracranial tumor with surgery, dural margin treatment, and radiotherapy as cornerstones of therapy. Response to treatment continues to be highly heterogeneous even across tumors of the same grade. Methods: Using a cohort of 2490 meningiomas in addition to 100 cases from the prospective RTOG-0539 phase II clinical trial, we define molecular biomarkers of response across multiple different, recently defined molecular classifications and use propensity score matching to mimic a randomized controlled trial to evaluate the role of extent of resection, dural marginal resection, and adjuvant radiotherapy on clinical outcome. Results: Gross tumor resection led to improved progression-free-survival (PFS) across all molecular groups (MG) and improved overall survival in proliferative meningiomas (HR 0.52, 95%CI 0.30-0.93). Dural margin treatment (Simpson grade 1/2) improved PFS versus complete tumor removal alone (Simpson 3). MG reliably predicted response to radiotherapy, including in the RTOG-0539 cohort. A molecular model developed using clinical trial cases discriminated response to radiotherapy better than standard of care grading in multiple cohorts (ΔAUC 0.12, 95%CI 0.10-0.14). Conclusions: We elucidate biological and molecular classifications of meningioma that influence response to surgery and radiotherapy in addition to introducing a novel molecular-based prediction model of response to radiation to guide treatment decisions.

Background: Surgical resection of vestibular schwannoma (VS) is often curative if gross total resection is achieved, however, it is a delicate procedure with high risk to the facial nerve. With retrosigmoid approach for resection, the head is positioned to maximize lateral head rotation and neck flexion in order to optimize the surgical field. However, this may inadvertently occlude cerebral venous drainage, elevating intracranial pressure (ICP) and increasing intraoperative bleeding. Methods: Here, we review relevant literature regarding the effects of head rotation and neck flexion on internal jugular vein (IJV) occlusion and ICP, and highlight the notion that head rotation and flexion may occlude the ipsilateral IJV, increasing ICP. Subsequently, we propose a novel technique using continuous, real-time monitoring of jugular bulb pressure (JBP) to detect obstructions in jugular venous flow and guide optimal head positioning prior to VS resection. Results: As proof of concept, we present a case in which JBP monitoring was employed to optimize head positioning prior to a VS resection, which shows a significant reduction in JBP compared to traditional positioning. Conclusions: This innovative approach offers promise in enhancing the safety and efficacy of intracranial surgery for VS and potentially other neurosurgical procedures.

Background: After a transient ischemic attack (TIA) or minor stroke, the long-term risk of subsequent stroke is uncertain. Methods: Electronic databases were searched for observational studies reporting subsequent stroke during a minimum follow-up of 1 year in patients with TIA or minor stroke. Unpublished data on number of stroke events and exact person-time at risk contributed by all patients during discrete time intervals of follow-up were requested from the authors of included studies. This information was used to calculate the incidence of stroke in individual studies, and results across studies were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. Results: Fifteen independent cohorts involving 129794 patients were included in the analysis. The pooled incidence rate of subsequent stroke per 100 person-years was 6.4 events in the first year and 2.0 events in the second through tenth years, with cumulative incidences of 14% at 5 years and 21% at 10 years. Based on 10 studies with information available on fatal stroke, the pooled case fatality rate of subsequent stroke was 9.5% (95% CI, 5.9 – 13.8). Conclusions: One in five patients is expected to experience a subsequent stroke within 10 years after a TIA or minor stroke, with every tenth patient expected to die from their subsequent stroke.

The Permian–Triassic climate crisis can provide key insights into the potential impact of horizon threats to modern-day biodiversity. This crisis coincides with the same extensive environmental changes that threaten modern marine ecosystems (i.e., thermal stress, deoxygenation and ocean acidification), but the primary drivers of extinction are currently unknown. To understand which factors caused extinctions, we conducted a data analysis to quantify the relationship (anomalies, state-shifts and trends) between geochemical proxies and the fossil record at the most intensively studied locality for this event, the Meishan section, China. We found that δ18Oapatite (paleotemperature proxy) and δ114/110Cd (primary productivity proxy) best explain changes in species diversity and species composition in Meishan’s paleoequatorial setting. These findings suggest that the physiological stresses induced by ocean warming and nutrient availability played a predominant role in driving equatorial marine extinctions during the Permian–Triassic event. This research enhances our understanding of the interplay between environmental changes and extinction dynamics during a past climate crisis, presenting an outlook for extinction threats in the worst-case “Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP5–8.5)” scenario.

We study the phenomenon of selective exposure in China's restricted online information environment. Through an experimental survey study, we measure to what extent features of online news, such as popularity (i.e. number of “likes”), influence information selection among Chinese internet users (“netizens”). We find evidence of preferences for news information according to news topic and the nationalist sentiments of individuals. Generally, for news about domestic affairs, Chinese netizens prefer articles that take the opposite position of the government; for foreign affairs, they prefer articles aligned with the government's position. However, nationalistic individuals are more likely to select domestic affairs articles congruent with the Chinese government's issue framing. We also find social endorsements to be highly influential on news selection behaviour. Popular posts with many “likes” attract Chinese netizens to the point where they select content they may not otherwise read, even though the internet environment is easily manipulated.

The current study evaluated cultural values and family processes that may moderate associations between daily racial-ethnic discrimination and distress among Mexican-origin youth. Integrating micro-time (daily diary) and macro-time (longitudinal survey) research design features, we examined familism, family cohesion, and ethnic-racial socialization from youth-, mother-, and father- reports as potential buffers of daily associations between youth racial-ethnic discrimination and youth distress (negative affect and anger). The analytic sample, drawn from the Seguimos Avanzando study, included 317 Mexican-origin adolescents (Mage = 13.5 years) and their parents, recruited from the Midwestern United States. Results indicated that youth-reported familism and family cohesion significantly buffered daily associations between youth racial-ethnic discrimination and youth distress. In contrast, parent-reported familism and family cohesion and some aspects of ethnic-racial socialization exacerbated the discrimination to distress link. The implications of these results are discussed to inform efforts supporting the healthy development of Mexican-origin youth and their families.

OBJECTIVES/GOALS: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) impacts 15% of US adults and African American (AA) persons are disproportionately affected with more than 3 times higher risk of kidney failure when compared to Caucasian persons. This study evaluated the physiological and metabolomic effects of increased fruits and vegetables (F&V) on cardio-renal risk factors. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: This pilot trial used a prospective, 2-group, randomized study design to evaluate a F&V intervention (N=46), where participants received a prescribed amount of fresh, base-producing F&V compared to a wait-list control (WL) condition (N=45). All participants were African American adults (≥18 years), had self-reported hypertension, and had CKD (Stage 1-3) on screening spot-urine microalbumin test. Participants were measured at baseline and 6 weeks post-intervention. Clinical data (i.e., systolic and diastolic blood pressure, lipid panel, hemoglobin A1C, BMI [body mass index], and albumin to creatinine ratio) were collected. Targeted metabolomic quantitative analysis was performed followed by LC-MS/MS and FIA-MS/MS. Linear mixed models evaluated analyte expression and clinical data. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: AA participants (N=91) were aged 58 ± 10.2 years, 66% female, and 54% had incomes ≤$50,000. T-tests compared change scores (baseline to 6-weeks) between groups. The F&V group demonstrated a significant reduction in BMI of -4.7 ± 10.5 kg/m² compared to a 1.9 ± 8.3 kg/m² increase in the WL group, p<.01. Further, the F&V group demonstrated a reduction in total cholesterol of -15.4 ± 58.8 mg/dL compared to a 17.7 ± 68.8 mg/dL increase in the WL group, p<.05. Non-significant reductions in hemoglobin A1c were found in the F&V versus the WL group. Metabolomic analysis indicated significant variation with an increase of suggestive key biomarkers for worse CKD in the WL versus F&V groups at 6-weeks. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE: Consumption of only 2 cups of F&V via a community-based intervention reduced CVD risk factors in AA adults with CKD and HTN and resulted in molecular/biochemical changes which may improve long-term kidney health. Further investigation may lead to development of cost-effective dietary intervention models to improve CKD outcomes in AA persons.