The incidence of scarlet fever has increased dramatically in recent years in Chongqing, China, but there has no effective method to forecast it. This study aimed to develop a forecasting model of the incidence of scarlet fever using a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. Monthly scarlet fever data between 2011 and 2019 in Chongqing, China were retrieved from the Notifiable Infectious Disease Surveillance System. From 2011 to 2019, a total of 5073 scarlet fever cases were reported in Chongqing, the male-to-female ratio was 1.44:1, children aged 3–9 years old accounted for 81.86% of the cases, while 42.70 and 42.58% of the reported cases were students and kindergarten children, respectively. The data from 2011 to 2018 were used to fit a SARIMA model and data in 2019 were used to validate the model. The normalised Bayesian information criterion (BIC), the coefficient of determination (R2) and the root mean squared error (RMSE) were used to evaluate the goodness-of-fit of the fitted model. The optimal SARIMA model was identified as (3, 1, 3) (3, 1, 0)12. The RMSE and mean absolute per cent error (MAPE) were used to assess the accuracy of the model. The RMSE and MAPE of the predicted values were 19.40 and 0.25 respectively, indicating that the predicted values matched the observed values reasonably well. Taken together, the SARIMA model could be employed to forecast scarlet fever incidence trend, providing support for scarlet fever control and prevention.

Reinforced cables are usually installed on flexible airship structures to enhance their load-bearing capability. However, reinforced cables also increase the total weight of the airship. In order to find a balance between large loading-bear capability and light weight, a multi-objective optimisation scheme based on the genetic algorithm NSGA-II is put forward for the reinforced cable distribution on the airship. Firstly, different cable distribution schemes are presented according to engineering experience and the optimal one is determined by load analysis. Then, the CAE method and optimisation analysis are combined to achieve structure design optimisation. The parametric model of the airship structure with reinforced cables is established by ABAQUS secondary development and the load analysis is carried out. Parameter passing and optimisation algorithm are operated by Isight software and the optimisation analysis is conducted based on the NSGA-II algorithm. Finally, we draw some conclusions of the rules of optimised reinforcing cable distribution. The work of this paper has crucial engineering significance for improving performance of the airship structure design.

We use a continuous wavelet transform to analyse the daily hemispheric sunspot area data from the Greenwich Royal Observatory during cycles 12–24 and then study the cause of the appearance or disappearance of the Rieger-type periodicity in the northern and southern hemispheres during a certain cycle. The Rieger-type periodicity in the northern and southern hemispheres should be developed independently in the two hemispheres. This periodicity in the northern hemisphere is generally anti-correlated with the long-term variations in the mean solar cycle strength of hemispheric activity, but the correlation of the two parameters in the southern hemisphere shows a weak correlation. The appearance or disappearance of Rieger-type periodicity in the northern and southern hemispheres during a certain solar cycle is not directly correlated with their corresponding hemispheric mean activity strength but should be related to the strength of the hemispheric activity during sunspot maximum times, which hints the Rieger-type periodicity is more related to temporal evolution of toroidal magnetic field. The Rieger-type periodicity in the two hemispheres disappears in those solar cycles with relatively weak hemispheric activity during sunspot maximum times. The reason for the disappearance of this periodicity may be due to the combined influence of relatively weak toroidal magnetic fields and torsional oscillations, the differential rotation parameters vary through the solar cycle and may not remain more or less unchanged during some time, which does not permit the strong growth of magnetic Rossby waves.

The experiment was carried out in three crop cycles as plant cane, first ratoon, and second ratoon at five locations on Florida muck soils (histosols) to evaluate the genotypes, test locations, and identify the superior and stable sugarcane genotypes. There were 13 sugarcane genotypes along with three commercial cultivars as checks included in this study. Five locations were considered as environments to analyze genotype-by-environment interaction (GEI) in 13 genotypes in three crop cycles. The sugarcane genotypes were planted in a randomized complete block design with six replications at each location. Performance was measured by the traits of sucrose yield tons per hectare (SY) and commercial recoverable sugar (CRS) in kilograms of sugar per ton of cane. The data were subjected to genotype main effects and genotype × environment interaction (GGE) analyses. The results showed significant effects for genotype (G), locations (E), and G × E (genotype × environment interaction) with respect to both traits. The GGE biplot analysis showed that the sugarcane genotype CP 12-1417 was high yielding and stable in terms of sucrose yield. The most discriminating and non-representative locations were Knight Farm (KN) for both SY and CRS. For sucrose yield only, the most discriminating and non-representative locations were Knight Farm (KN), Duda and Sons, Inc. USSC, Area 5 (A5), and Okeelanta (OK).

Scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM) allows for imaging, diffraction, and spectroscopy of materials on length scales ranging from microns to atoms. By using a high-speed, direct electron detector, it is now possible to record a full two-dimensional (2D) image of the diffracted electron beam at each probe position, typically a 2D grid of probe positions. These 4D-STEM datasets are rich in information, including signatures of the local structure, orientation, deformation, electromagnetic fields, and other sample-dependent properties. However, extracting this information requires complex analysis pipelines that include data wrangling, calibration, analysis, and visualization, all while maintaining robustness against imaging distortions and artifacts. In this paper, we present py4DSTEM, an analysis toolkit for measuring material properties from 4D-STEM datasets, written in the Python language and released with an open-source license. We describe the algorithmic steps for dataset calibration and various 4D-STEM property measurements in detail and present results from several experimental datasets. We also implement a simple and universal file format appropriate for electron microscopy data in py4DSTEM, which uses the open-source HDF5 standard. We hope this tool will benefit the research community and help improve the standards for data and computational methods in electron microscopy, and we invite the community to contribute to this ongoing project.

Student's t test is valid for statistical inference under the normality assumption or asymptotically. By contrast, although the bootstrap t test was proposed in 1993, it is seldom adopted in medical research. We aim to demonstrate that the bootstrap t test outperforms Student's t test under normality in data. Using random data samples from normal distributions, we evaluated the testing performance, in terms of true-positive rate (TPR) and false-positive rate and diagnostic abilities, in terms of the area under the curve (AUC), of the bootstrap t test and Student's t test. We explore the AUC of both tests with varying sample size and coefficient of variation. We compare the testing outcomes using the COVID-19 serial interval (SI) data in Shenzhen and Hong Kong, China, for demonstration. With fixed TPR, the bootstrap t test maintained the equivalent accuracy in TPR, but significantly improved the true-negative rate from the Student's t test. With varying TPR, the diagnostic ability of bootstrap t test outperformed or equivalently performed as Student's t test in terms of the AUC. The equivalent performances are possible but rarely occur in practice. We find that the bootstrap t test outperforms by successfully detecting the difference in COVID-19 SI, which is defined as the time interval between consecutive transmission generations, due to sex and non-pharmaceutical interventions against the Student's t test. We demonstrated that the bootstrap t test outperforms Student's t test, and it is recommended to replace Student's t test in medical data analysis regardless of sample size.

Gravitational waves from coalescing neutron stars encode information about nuclear matter at extreme densities, inaccessible by laboratory experiments. The late inspiral is influenced by the presence of tides, which depend on the neutron star equation of state. Neutron star mergers are expected to often produce rapidly rotating remnant neutron stars that emit gravitational waves. These will provide clues to the extremely hot post-merger environment. This signature of nuclear matter in gravitational waves contains most information in the 2–4 kHz frequency band, which is outside of the most sensitive band of current detectors. We present the design concept and science case for a Neutron Star Extreme Matter Observatory (NEMO): a gravitational-wave interferometer optimised to study nuclear physics with merging neutron stars. The concept uses high-circulating laser power, quantum squeezing, and a detector topology specifically designed to achieve the high-frequency sensitivity necessary to probe nuclear matter using gravitational waves. Above 1 kHz, the proposed strain sensitivity is comparable to full third-generation detectors at a fraction of the cost. Such sensitivity changes expected event rates for detection of post-merger remnants from approximately one per few decades with two A+ detectors to a few per year and potentially allow for the first gravitational-wave observations of supernovae, isolated neutron stars, and other exotica.

The current study investigated associations between variation in the bovine perilipin-2 gene (PLIN2) and milk traits (milk fat content, milk protein content, milk yield and milk fatty acid (FA) component levels) in 409 New Zealand pasture-grazed Holstein-Friesian × Jersey-cross (HF × J-cross or Kiwicross™) cows. Five nucleotide sequence variants were found in three regions of the gene, including c.17C>T in exon 2, c.53A>G in exon 3, c.595+23G>A and c.595+104_595+108del in intron 5, and c.*302T>C in the 3′-untranslated region. The c.*302T>C substitution produces two nucleotide sequence variants (A5 and B5), and this variation was associated with variation in milk protein content and milkfat composition for C10:0, C11:0, C12:0, C13:0 and C16:0 FA and medium-chain fatty acid (MCFA) and long-chain fatty acid (LCFA) groups. After correcting for the effect of variation in the diacylglycerol acyl-CoA acyltransferase 1 gene (DGAT1) that results in the amino acid substitution p.K232A, variation in the FA binding protein 4 gene (FABP4) and variation in the stearoyl-CoA desaturase (Δ-9-desaturase) gene (SCD) that results in the amino acids substitution p.A293V, significant differences between A5A5 and B5B5 cows were found for C10:0, C11:0, C12:0, C13:0, C16:0, and the MCFA, LCFA, total saturated FA and C10:1 index groups. This suggests that nucleotide sequence variation in PLIN2 may be affecting milk FA component levels.

The butterfly plastic zone theory based on Mohr Coulomb criterion has been widely used in coal mine production. In order to verify the universality of the theory, it is necessary to compare the distribution of plastic zone under different strength criteria. Based on the elastic-plastic mechanics, the principal stress distribution function around the circular tunnel is deduced in the paper, and the boundary and radius of the plastic zone under different strength criteria are calculated. The results show that the change laws of the plastic zone around the circular tunnel under different strength criteria has the following commonness: firstly, with the increase of the lateral pressure coefficient, the shape of the plastic zone presents the change laws of “circle ellipse butterfly”; Secondly, with the increase of the lateral pressure coefficient, the radius of the plastic zone is exponential distribution, while the characteristic value is different when the radius of the plastic zone is infinite. At same time, it shows that the butterfly plastic zone has a low sensitivity dependence on the strength criterion, no matter which strength criterion is adopted, and the butterfly plastic zone will inevitably appear in the surrounding rock mass of circular tunnel in the high deviator stress environment; The plastic zone with butterfly shape is highly sensitive to the stress change, and the small stress change may promote the expansion of the plastic zone. This result is significant for us to understand and prevent rock engineering disasters and accidents.

To evaluate the dynamic properties of a coupled structure based on the dynamic properties of its substructures, this paper investigates the dynamic substructuring issue from the perspective of response prediction. The main idea is that the connecting forces at the interface of substructures can be expressed by the unknown coupled structural responses, and the responses can be solved rather easily. Not only rigidly coupled structures but also resiliently coupled structures are investigated. In order to further comprehend and visualize the nature of coupling problems, the Neumann series expansion for a matrix describing the relation between the coupled and uncoupled substructures is also introduced in this paper. Compared with existing response prediction methods, the proposed method does not have to measure any forces, which makes it easier to apply than the others. Clearly, the frequency response function matrix of coupled structures can be derived directly based on the response prediction method. Compared with existing frequency response function synthesis methods, it is more straightforward and comprehensible. Through demonstration of two examples, it is concluded that the proposed method can deal with structural coupling problems very well.

Vast improvements have been made to the capabilities of advanced manufacturing (AM), yet there are still limitations on which materials can effectively be used in the technology. To this end, parts created using AM would benefit from the ability to be developed from feedstock materials incorporating additional functionality. A common three-dimensional (3D) printing polymer, acrylonitrile butadiene styrene, was combined with bismuth and polyvinylidene fluoride via a solvent treatment to fabricate multifunctional composite materials for AM. Composites of varying weight percent loadings were extruded into filaments, which were subsequently 3D printed into blocks via fused filament fabrication. Investigating the material properties demonstrated that in addition to the printed blocks successfully performing as radiation shields, the chemical, thermal, and mechanical properties are suitable for AM. Thus, this work demonstrates that it is possible to enhance AM components with augmented capabilities while not significantly altering the material properties which make AM possible.

Imprinting, characterized by unequal expression of the offspring's genes in a parent-of-origin dependent manner, has been functionally implicated in brain development and in psychiatric disorders. In this study, unambiguous distortion in paternal but not maternal transmission of the disease-associated single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) rs6556547 (T/G) clearly indicated the presence of parent-of-origin effect (POE) in the GABAA receptor β2 subunit gene (GABRB2). ‘Flipping’ of allelic mRNA expression in heterozygotes of SNP rs2229944 (C/T) and the observed two-tiered distribution of mRNA expression levels in heterozygotes of the disease-associated SNP rs1816071 (G/A) furnished important support for the occurrence of imprinting at GABRB2. Imprinting in effect introduced heterozygotes from different parents-of-origin endowed with dissimilar mRNA expression capabilities. The deficit of upper-tiered expressions accounted for the lowered mRNA expression levels in the schizophrenic heterozygotes. This pointed to the necessity of differentiating between two kinds of heterozygotes of different parental origins in disease association studies on GABRB2. Bisulfite sequencing revealed hypermethylation in the neighborhood of SNP rs1816071, and methylation differences between controls and schizophrenia patients. Notably, allele-specific methylation was observed at the disease-associated SNPs rs6556547 and rs1816071. These findings raised the possibility that CpG methylation status of these sites could have an impact on the expression of GABRB2 and the risk of schizophrenia. Furthermore, the occurrence of imprinting and allele-specific methylation in the schizophrenia candidate gene GABRB2 was compatible with the epigenetic hypothesis for schizophrenia pathophysiology, thereby calling for the need to explore the role of epigenetic factors in mediating susceptibility to schizophrenia.