The incidence of scarlet fever has increased dramatically in recent years in Chongqing, China, but there has no effective method to forecast it. This study aimed to develop a forecasting model of the incidence of scarlet fever using a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. Monthly scarlet fever data between 2011 and 2019 in Chongqing, China were retrieved from the Notifiable Infectious Disease Surveillance System. From 2011 to 2019, a total of 5073 scarlet fever cases were reported in Chongqing, the male-to-female ratio was 1.44:1, children aged 3–9 years old accounted for 81.86% of the cases, while 42.70 and 42.58% of the reported cases were students and kindergarten children, respectively. The data from 2011 to 2018 were used to fit a SARIMA model and data in 2019 were used to validate the model. The normalised Bayesian information criterion (BIC), the coefficient of determination (R2) and the root mean squared error (RMSE) were used to evaluate the goodness-of-fit of the fitted model. The optimal SARIMA model was identified as (3, 1, 3) (3, 1, 0)12. The RMSE and mean absolute per cent error (MAPE) were used to assess the accuracy of the model. The RMSE and MAPE of the predicted values were 19.40 and 0.25 respectively, indicating that the predicted values matched the observed values reasonably well. Taken together, the SARIMA model could be employed to forecast scarlet fever incidence trend, providing support for scarlet fever control and prevention.

Long-term care given to disabled older adults takes many forms, with each impacting life satisfaction through different ways. Drawing data from the 2011–2018 China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Survey, this article explores the effects of various care types on life satisfaction, with a particular focus on disabled older persons. Estimates derived from a fixed effects model with propensity score matching show that compared with formal care, informal care has significant positive effects on life satisfaction for disabled older adults. In addition, informal care has its greatest positive effect on life satisfaction on those who are mildly disabled, men and rural residents compared to their counterparts, while formal care addresses the needs of individuals with severe disability. We find that the main channels of effect occur through reduced loneliness and unhappiness, increased participation in social activities and improved physical health. This work contributes to the existing literature by demonstrating how various care types affect life satisfaction in China where filial piety, the central pillar of the Confucian ethics, is one of the common shared values among residents. These findings highlight the benefits derived from policies that promote and support the provision of informal care for older individuals. Moreover, there is a pressing need to buttress the formal care provision as a supplement to support severely disabled older adults in China.

The early identification and prediction of hand-foot-and-mouth disease (HFMD) play an important role in the disease prevention and control. However, suitable models are different in regions due to the differences in geography, social economy factors. We collected data associated with daily reported HFMD cases and weather factors of Zibo city in 2010~2019 and used the generalised additive model (GAM) to evaluate the effects of weather factors on HFMD cases. Then, GAM, support vectors regression (SVR) and random forest regression (RFR) models are used to compare predictive results. The annual average incidence was 129.72/100 000 from 2010 to 2019. Its distribution showed a unimodal trend, with incidence increasing from March, peaking from May to September. Our study revealed the nonlinear relationship between temperature, rainfall and relative humidity and HFMD cases and based on the predictive result, the performances of three models constructed ranked in descending order are: SVR > GAM> RFR, and SVR has the smallest prediction errors. These findings provide quantitative evidence for the prediction of HFMD for special high-risk regions and can help public health agencies implement prevention and control measures in advance.

The pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has posed serious challenges. It is vitally important to further clarify the epidemiological characteristics of the COVID-19 outbreak for future study and prevention and control measures. Epidemiological characteristics and spatial−temporal analysis were performed based on COVID-19 cases from 21 January 2020 to 1 March 2020 in Shandong Province, and close contacts were traced to construct transmission chains. A total of 758 laboratory-confirmed cases were reported in Shandong. The sex ratio was 1.27: 1 (M: F) and the median age was 42 (interquartile range: 32–55). The high-risk clusters were identified in the central, eastern and southern regions of Shandong from 25 January 2020 to 10 February 2020. We rebuilt 54 transmission chains involving 209 cases, of which 52.2% were family clusters, and three widespread infection chains were elaborated, occurring in Jining, Zaozhuang and Liaocheng, respectively. The geographical and temporal disparity may alert public health agencies to implement specific measures in regions with different risk, and should attach importance on how to avoid household and community transmission.

An experiment was conducted to determine the effects of supplementing different amounts of daidzein in a diet on the growth performance, blood biochemical parameters and meat quality of finishing beef cattle. Thirty finishing Xianan steers were distributed in three groups equilibrated by weight and fed three different dietary treatments (concentrate ratio = 80%): (1) control; (2) 500 mg/kg daidzein and (3) 1000 mg/kg daidzein, respectively. Steers were slaughtered after an 80-day feeding trial. Results showed that daidzein supplementation had no effect on the final body weight, average daily gain and feed conversion rate of steers. Steers fed with 1000 mg/kg daidzein had greater dry matter intake than those fed with control diets. Compared with the control group, the 1000 mg/kg daidzein group had a higher fat thickness, lower shear force and lightness. The pH, drip loss, cooking loss, redness (a*), yellowness (b*), moisture, ash, crude protein and intramuscular fat of the Longissimus dorsi muscle were unaffected by daidzein supplementation. Compared with the control group, the 1000 mg/kg daidzein group significantly increased the serum concentrations of insulin, free fatty acid and Glutamic-pyruvic transaminase. The 500 mg/kg daidzein group significantly increased the serum concentration of tetraiodothyronine compared with the control group. Supplemental daidzein did not affect the blood antioxidant ability and blood immune parameters in serum. In conclusion, daidzein supplementation above 500 mg/day modifies feed intake and metabolic and hormonal profile, with positive and negative effects on meat quality.

Finite-amplitude manifestations of stratified shear flow instabilities and their spatio-temporal coherent structures are believed to play an important role in turbulent geophysical flows. Such shear flows commonly have layers separated by sharp density interfaces, and are therefore susceptible to the so-called Holmboe instability, and its finite-amplitude manifestation, the Holmboe wave. In this paper, we describe and elucidate the origin of an apparently previously unreported long-lived coherent structure in a sustained stratified shear flow generated in the laboratory by exchange flow through an inclined square duct connecting two reservoirs filled with fluids of different densities. Using a novel measurement technique allowing for time-resolved, near-instantaneous measurements of the three-component velocity and density fields simultaneously over a three-dimensional volume, we describe the three-dimensional geometry and spatio-temporal dynamics of this structure. We identify it as a finite-amplitude, nonlinear, asymmetric confined Holmboe wave (CHW), and highlight the importance of its spanwise (lateral) confinement by the duct boundaries. We pay particular attention to the spanwise vorticity, which exhibits a travelling, near-periodic structure of sheared, distorted, prolate spheroids with a wide ‘body’ and a narrower ‘head’. Using temporal linear stability analysis on the two-dimensional streamwise-averaged experimental flow, we solve for three-dimensional perturbations having two-dimensional, cross-sectionally confined eigenfunctions and a streamwise normal mode. We show that the dispersion relation and the three-dimensional spatial structure of the fastest-growing confined Holmboe instability are in good agreement with those of the observed confined Holmboe wave. We also compare those results with a classical linear analysis of two-dimensional perturbations (i.e. with no spanwise dependence) on a one-dimensional base flow. We conclude that the lateral confinement is an important ingredient of the confined Holmboe instability, which gives rise to the CHW, with implications for many inherently confined geophysical flows such as in valleys, estuaries, straits or deep ocean trenches. Our results suggest that the CHW is an example of an experimentally observed, inherently nonlinear, robust, long-lived coherent structure which has developed from a linear instability. We conjecture that the CHW is a promising candidate for a class of exact coherent states underpinning the dynamics of more disordered, yet continually forced stratified shear flows.

Although previous studies have investigated the association of cruciferous vegetable consumption with breast cancer risk, few studies focused on the association between bioactive components in cruciferous vegetables, glucosinolates (GSL) and isothiocyanates (ITC), and breast cancer risk. This study aimed to examine the association between consumption of cruciferous vegetables and breast cancer risk according to GSL and ITC contents in a Chinese population. A total of 1485 cases and 1506 controls were recruited into this case–control study from June 2007 to March 2017. Consumption of cruciferous vegetables was assessed using a validated FFQ. Dietary GSL and ITC were computed by using two food composition databases linking GSL and ITC contents in cruciferous vegetables with responses to the FFQ. The OR and 95 % CI were assessed by unconditional logistic regression after adjusting for the potential confounders. Significant inverse associations were found between consumption of cruciferous vegetables, GSL and ITC and breast cancer risk. The adjusted OR comparing the highest with the lowest quartile were 0·51 (95 % CI 0·41, 0·63) for cruciferous vegetables, 0·54 (95 % CI 0·44, 0·67) for GSL and 0·62 (95 % CI 0·50, 0·76) for ITC, respectively. These inverse associations were also observed in both premenopausal and postmenopausal women. Subgroup analysis by hormone receptor status found inverse associations between cruciferous vegetables, GSL and ITC and both hormone-receptor-positive or hormone-receptor-negative breast cancer. This study indicated that consumption of cruciferous vegetables, GSL and ITC was inversely associated with breast cancer risk among Chinese women.

Timing of seedling emergence is a critical aspect of a plant's life cycle, and it may influence the expression of other plant life history traits. However, most studies have been conducted at the population level, and thus little is known about timing of seedling emergence at the community level. In the field, we determined the peak emergence season for seedlings of 144 species collected from a subalpine meadow on the eastern Tibet Plateau in China. The proportion of species with seedlings emerging in autumn, spring and summer, seedling field emergence percentage (FE) and mean emergence time (MET) were analysed in relation to seed mass, life cycle type (annual/biennial and perennial) and phylogeny. The results showed that (1) the proportion of species with seedlings emerging in autumn (33%), spring (44%) and summer (23%) differed significantly; (2) overall, species with seedlings emerging in autumn had higher FE than those emerging during spring/summer; (3) there was a positive relationship between log-seed mass and log-MET, but log-seed mass had no significant effect on log-FE; (4) life cycle type did not affect seedling emergence; and (5) phylogeny significantly explained peak emergence season. These results suggest that seed mass and phylogenetic position are the main determinants of seedling emergence season. However, seedling peak emergence season affected FE, growing season length and resource utilization, and thus may be related to the importance of a species in the community.

Quantification of lean body mass and fat mass can provide important insight into epidemiological research. However, there is no consensus on generalisable anthropometric prediction equations to validly estimate body composition. We aimed to develop and validate practical anthropometric prediction equations for lean body mass, fat mass and percent fat in adults (men, n 7531; women, n 6534) from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 1999–2006. Using a prediction sample, we predicted each of dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA)-measured lean body mass, fat mass and percent fat based on different combinations of anthropometric measures. The proposed equations were validated using a validation sample and obesity-related biomarkers. The practical equation including age, race, height, weight and waist circumference had high predictive ability for lean body mass (men: R2=0·91, standard error of estimate (SEE)=2·6 kg; women: R2=0·85, SEE=2·4 kg) and fat mass (men: R2=0·90, SEE=2·6 kg; women: R2=0·93, SEE=2·4 kg). Waist circumference was a strong predictor in men only. Addition of other circumference and skinfold measures slightly improved the prediction model. For percent fat, R2 were generally lower but the trend in variation explained was similar. Our validation tests showed robust and consistent results with no evidence of substantial bias. Additional validation using biomarkers demonstrated comparable abilities to predict obesity-related biomarkers between direct DXA measurements and predicted scores. Moreover, predicted fat mass and percent fat had significantly stronger associations with obesity-related biomarkers than BMI did. Our findings suggest the potential application of the proposed equations in various epidemiological settings.

The mixing properties of statically stable density interfaces subject to imposed vertical shear are studied using direct numerical simulations of stratified plane Couette flow. The simulations are designed to investigate possible self-maintaining mechanisms of sharp density interfaces motivated by Phillips’ argument (Deep-Sea Res., vol. 19, 1972, pp. 79–81) by which layers and interfaces can spontaneously form due to vertical variations of diapycnal flux. At the start of each simulation, a sharp density interface with the same initial thickness is introduced at the midplane between two flat, horizontal walls counter-moving at velocities $\pm U_{w}$. Particular attention is paid to the effects of varying Prandtl number $\mathit{Pr}\equiv \unicode[STIX]{x1D708}/\unicode[STIX]{x1D705}$, where $\unicode[STIX]{x1D708}$ and $\unicode[STIX]{x1D705}$ are the molecular kinematic viscosity and diffusivity respectively, over two orders of magnitude from 0.7, 7 and 70. Varying $\mathit{Pr}$ enables the system to access a considerable range of characteristic turbulent Péclet numbers $\mathit{Pe}_{\ast }\equiv {\mathcal{U}}_{\ast }{\mathcal{L}}_{\ast }/\unicode[STIX]{x1D705}$, where ${\mathcal{U}}_{\ast }$ and ${\mathcal{L}}_{\ast }$ are characteristic velocity and length scales, respectively, of the motion which acts to ‘scour’ the density interface. The dynamics of the interface varies with the stability of the interface which is characterised by a bulk Richardson number $\mathit{Ri}\,\equiv \,b_{0}h/U_{w}^{2}$, where $b_{0}$ is half the initial buoyancy difference across the interface and $h$ is the half-height of the channel. Shear-induced turbulence occurs at small $\mathit{Ri}$, whereas internal waves propagating on the interface dominate at large $\mathit{Ri}$. For a highly stable (i.e. large $\mathit{Ri}$) interface at sufficiently large $\mathit{Pe}_{\ast }$, the complex interfacial dynamics allows the interface to remain sharp. This ‘self-sharpening’ is due to the combined effects of the ‘scouring’ induced by the turbulence external to the interface and comparatively weak molecular diffusion across the core region of the interface. The effective diapycnal diffusivity and irreversible buoyancy flux are quantified in the tracer-based reference coordinate proposed by Winters & D’Asaro (J. Fluid Mech., vol. 317, 1996, pp. 179–193) and Nakamura (J. Atmos. Sci., vol. 53, 1996, pp. 1524–1537), which enables a detailed investigation of the self-sharpening process by analysing the local budget of buoyancy gradient in the reference coordinate. We further discuss the dependence of the effective diffusivity and overall mixing efficiency on the characteristic parameters of the flow, such as the buoyancy Reynolds number and the local gradient Richardson number, and highlight the possible role of the molecular properties of fluids on diapycnal mixing.

Knowledge regarding association of dietary branched-chain amino acid (BCAA) and type 2 diabetes (T2D), and the contribution of BCAA from meat to the risk of T2D are scarce. We evaluated associations between dietary BCAA intake, meat intake, interaction between BCAA and meat intake and risk of T2D. Data analyses were performed for 74 155 participants aged 50−79 years at baseline from the Women’s Health Initiative for up to 15 years of follow-up. We excluded from analysis participants with treated T2D, and factors potentially associated with T2D or missing covariate data. The BCAA and total meat intake was estimated from FFQ. Using Cox proportional hazards models, we assessed the relationship between BCAA intake, meat intake, and T2D, adjusting for confounders. A 20 % increment in total BCAA intake (g/d and %energy) was associated with a 7 % higher risk for T2D (hazard ratio (HR) 1·07; 95 % CI 1·05, 1·09). For total meat intake, a 20 % increment was associated with a 4 % higher risk of T2D (HR 1·04; 95 % CI 1·03, 1·05). The associations between BCAA intake and T2D were attenuated but remained significant after adjustment for total meat intake. These relations did not materially differ with or without adjustment for BMI. Our results suggest that dietary BCAA and meat intake are positively associated with T2D among postmenopausal women. The association of BCAA and diabetes risk was attenuated but remained positive after adjustment for meat intake suggesting that BCAA intake in part but not in full is contributing to the association of meat with T2D risk.

We investigate fully developed turbulence in stratified plane Couette flows using direct numerical simulations similar to those reported by Deusebio et al. (J. Fluid Mech., vol. 781, 2015, pp. 298–329) expanding the range of Prandtl number $Pr$ examined by two orders of magnitude from 0.7 up to 70. Significant effects of $Pr$ on the heat and momentum fluxes across the channel gap and on the mean temperature and velocity profile are observed. These effects can be described through a mixing length model coupling Monin–Obukhov (M–O) similarity theory and van Driest damping functions. We then employ M–O theory to formulate similarity scalings for various flow diagnostics for the stratified turbulence in the gap interior. The midchannel gap gradient Richardson number $Ri_{g}$ is determined by the length scale ratio $h/L$, where $h$ is the half-channel gap depth and $L$ is the Obukhov length scale. As $h/L$ approaches very large values, $Ri_{g}$ asymptotes to a maximum characteristic value of approximately 0.2. The buoyancy Reynolds number $Re_{b}\equiv \unicode[STIX]{x1D700}/(\unicode[STIX]{x1D708}N^{2})$, where $\unicode[STIX]{x1D700}$ is the dissipation, $\unicode[STIX]{x1D708}$ is the kinematic viscosity and $N$ is the buoyancy frequency defined in terms of the local mean density gradient, scales linearly with the length scale ratio $L^{+}\equiv L/\unicode[STIX]{x1D6FF}_{\unicode[STIX]{x1D708}}$, where $\unicode[STIX]{x1D6FF}_{\unicode[STIX]{x1D708}}$ is the near-wall viscous scale. The flux Richardson number $Ri_{f}\equiv -B/P$, where $B$ is the buoyancy flux and $P$ is the shear production, is found to be proportional to $Ri_{g}$. This then leads to a turbulent Prandtl number $Pr_{t}\equiv \unicode[STIX]{x1D708}_{t}/\unicode[STIX]{x1D705}_{t}$ of order unity, where $\unicode[STIX]{x1D708}_{t}$ and $\unicode[STIX]{x1D705}_{t}$ are the turbulent viscosity and diffusivity respectively, which is consistent with Reynolds analogy. The turbulent Froude number $Fr_{h}\equiv \unicode[STIX]{x1D700}/(NU^{\prime 2})$, where $U^{\prime }$ is a turbulent horizontal velocity scale, is found to vary like $Ri_{g}^{-1/2}$. All these scalings are consistent with our numerical data and appear to be independent of $Pr$. The classical Osborn model based on turbulent kinetic energy balance in statistically stationary stratified sheared turbulence (Osborn, J. Phys. Oceanogr., vol. 10, 1980, pp. 83–89), together with M–O scalings, results in a parameterization of $\unicode[STIX]{x1D705}_{t}/\unicode[STIX]{x1D708}\sim \unicode[STIX]{x1D708}_{t}/\unicode[STIX]{x1D708}\sim Re_{b}Ri_{g}/(1-Ri_{g})$. With this parameterization validated through direct numerical simulation data, we provide physical interpretations of these results in the context of M–O similarity theory. These results are also discussed and rationalized with respect to other parameterizations in the literature. This paper demonstrates the role of M–O similarity in setting the mixing efficiency of equilibrated constant-flux layers, and the effects of Prandtl number on mixing in wall-bounded stratified turbulent flows.

The protective effects of dietary pyrroloquinoline quinone disodium (PQQ.Na2) supplementation against oxidized sunflower oil-induced oxidative stress and liver injury in laying hens were examined. Three hundred and sixty 53-week-old Hy-Line Gray laying hens were randomly allocated into one of the five dietary treatments. The treatments included: (1) a diet containing 2% fresh sunflower oil; (2) a diet containing 2% thermally oxidized sunflower oil; (3) an oxidized sunflower oil diet with 100 mg/kg of added vitamin E; (4) an oxidized sunflower oil diet with 0.08 mg/kg of PQQ.Na2; and (5) an oxidized sunflower oil diet with 0.12 mg/kg of PQQ.Na2. Birds fed the oxidized sunflower oil diet showed a lower feed intake compared to birds fed the fresh oil diet or oxidized oil diet supplemented with vitamin E (P=0.009). Exposure to oxidized sunflower oil increased plasma malondialdehyde (P<0.001), hepatic reactive oxygen species (P<0.05) and carbonyl group levels (P<0.001), but decreased plasma glutathione levels (P=0.006) in laying hens. These unfavorable changes induced by the oxidized sunflower oil diet were modulated by dietary vitamin E or PQQ.Na2 supplementation to levels comparable to the fresh oil group. Dietary supplementation with PQQ.Na2 or vitamin E increased the activities of total superoxide dismutase and glutathione peroxidase in plasma and the liver, when compared with the oxidized sunflower oil group (P<0.05). PQQ.Na2 or vitamin E diminished the oxidized sunflower oil diet induced elevation of liver weight (P=0.026), liver to BW ratio (P=0.001) and plasma activities of alanine aminotransferase (P=0.001) and aspartate aminotransferase (P<0.001) and maintained these indices at the similar levels to the fresh oil diet. Furthermore, oxidized sunflower oil increased hepatic DNA tail length (P<0.05) and tail moment (P<0.05) compared with the fresh oil group. Dietary supplementation of PQQ.Na2 or vitamin E decreased the oxidized oil diet induced DNA tail length and tail moment to the basal levels in fresh oil diet. These results indicate that PQQ.Na2 is a potential antioxidant and is as effective against oxidized oil-related liver injury in laying hens as vitamin E. The protective effects of PQQ.Na2 against liver damage induced by oxidized oil may be partially due to its role in the scavenging of free radicals, inhibiting of lipid peroxidation and enhancing of antioxidant defense systems.

We have used the Submillimeter Array (SMA) to image, at ~1″ resolution, C2H(3−2) emission from the molecule-rich circumstellar disks orbiting the nearby, classical T Tauri star systems TW Hya and V4046 Sgr. The SMA imaging reveals that the C2H emission exhibits a ring-like morphology within each disk; the radius of the inner hole of the C2H ring within the V4046 Sgr disk (~70 AU) is somewhat larger than than of its counterpart within the TW Hya disk (~45 AU). We suggest that, in each case, the C2H emission likely traces irradiation of the tenuous surface layers of the outer disks by high-energy photons from the central stars.

Arginine kinase (AK) is an important regulation factor of energy metabolism in invertebrate. An arginine kinase gene, named HaAK, was identified to be differentially expressed between Cry1Ac-susceptible (96S) and Cry1Ac-resistant (Bt-R) Helicoverpa armigera larvae using cDNA-amplification fragment length polymorphism analysis. The full-length open reading frame sequence of HaAK gene with 1068 bp was isolated from H. armigera. Quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction assay revealed that HaAK gene is specifically expressed in multiple tissues and at larval developmental stages. The peak expression level of HaAK was detected in the midgut of the fifth-instar larvae. Moreover, the expression of HaAK was obviously down-regulated in Bt-R larvae. We further constructed a dsRNA vector directly targeting HaAK and employed RNAi technology to control the larvae. The feeding bioassays showed that minute quantities of dsRNA could greatly increase the larval mortality and delay the larval pupation. Silencing of HaAK significantly retarded the larval development, indicating that HaAK is a potential target for RNA interference-based pest management.

The summer and autumn migrations of the brown planthopper (Nilaparvata lugens) were observed in Southern China with a millimetric scanning entomological radar and a searchlight trap supplemented with capture in field cages, field surveys, and dissections of females. Nilaparvata lugens took off at dusk and dawn in summer, but in autumn there was sometimes only a dusk take-off. The variation of the area density of the radar targets indicated that flight durations were about 9–10 h. In summer, planthopper-size targets generally flew below 1800 m above ground level (AGL), although some insects reached 2000 m AGL; in autumn, they flew lower, generally below 1100 m although some insects reached 1700 m AGL. Multiple layer concentrations were seen every night in both summer and autumn. The depths of these layers in autumn were less than in summer. Nilaparvata lugens flew in strong winds; wind shear may be the main factor causing them to accumulate and form dense layers at certain heights. Nilaparvata lugens emigrating in summer from the vicinity of the radar site in the Northeastern Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, and carried by the prevailing southwesterly wind, would have travelled northeastwards and reached Northern Hunan Province. In autumn, with the prevailing northeasterly wind, emigrants would have reached overwintering areas (south of 21°N).