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It has been well publicised the pressures on inpatient bed capacity within mental health services in recent years. The RCPsych have stated in their publication ‘Exploring mental health inpatient capacity’ that bed occupancy has risen above their recommended 85% occupancy target in most areas. Waiting lists for beds have also grown. The aim of this project was to identify whether there could have been any extra community resources in place that could have prevented admissions to hospital within an older adult CMHT. This in turn reducing the demand on inpatient beds.
Methods
Inclusion criteria: All patients from the older adult CMHT admitted to either an organic or functional mental health inpatient bed between the 1st September and 31st December 2021.
All patients who met the inclusion criteria were discussed as part of a panel consisting of members of the MDT who were involved in the patients' ongoing care. The panel discussed each patient and individually scored each admission on a scale of 1–5 (where 1 was deemed to be very avoidable and 5 completely unavoidable). Where an admission did not score a 5 we considered whether anything could have been in place to have prevented the admission.
Results
Our search identified 21 patients who had been admitted to the respective old age psychiatry ward during our period of interest. The predominant diagnosis of these patients was vascular dementia (n = 5), followed by Alzheimer's disease (n = 3). Following our consensus panel discussion, we identified that the most common reason for admission to hospital was for management of behavioural and psychological symptoms of dementia (n = 10), followed by increasing patient vulnerability (n = 4) in the community. Carer stress was a theme in 2 admissions. Following panel discussion regarding potential avoidability of admission, we identified that 14 out of the total of 21 admissions scored a 5, 1 scored 4, 1 scored 3, and 5 scored 2.
Conclusion
Behavioural and psychological symptoms of dementia continues to remain a significant clinical challenge and was the most common reason for admission in our patient cohort. The majority of admissions to hospital in our cohort were deemed unavoidable as a result. However, we identified that carer stress was a significant theme in 2 out of our 21 admissions, suggesting potential scope to implement services which may reduce carer stress and ultimately, prevent hospital admission.
Hand hygiene is a simple, low-cost intervention that may lead to substantial population-level effects in suppressing acute respiratory infection epidemics. However, quantification of the efficacy of hand hygiene on respiratory infection in the community is lacking. We searched PubMed for randomised controlled trials on the effect of hand hygiene for reducing acute respiratory infections in the community published before 11 March 2021. We performed a meta-regression analysis using a Bayesian mixed-effects model. A total of 105 publications were identified, out of which six studies reported hand hygiene frequencies. Four studies were performed in household settings and two were in schools. The average number of handwashing events per day ranged from one to eight in the control arms, and four to 17 in the intervention arms. We estimated that a single hand hygiene event is associated with a 3% (80% credible interval (−1% to 7%)) decrease in the daily probability of an acute respiratory infection. Three of these six studies were potentially at high risk of bias because the primary outcome depended on self-reporting of upper respiratory tract symptoms. Well-designed trials with an emphasis on monitoring hand hygiene adherence are needed to confirm these findings.
To assess the training and the future workforce needs of paediatric cardiac critical care faculty.
Design:
REDCap surveys were sent May−August 2019 to medical directors and faculty at the 120 US centres participating in the Society of Thoracic Surgeons Congenital Heart Surgery Database. Faculty and directors were asked about personal training pathway and planned employment changes. Directors were additionally asked for current faculty numbers, expected job openings, presence of training programmes, and numbers of trainees. Predictive modelling of the workforce was performed using respondents’ data. Patient volume was projected from US Census data and compared to projected provider availability.
Measurements and main results:
Sixty-six per cent (79/120) of directors and 62% (294/477) of contacted faculty responded. Most respondents had training that incorporated critical care medicine with the majority completing training beyond categorical fellowship. Younger respondents and those in dedicated cardiac ICUs were more significantly likely to have advanced training or dual fellowships in cardiology and critical care medicine. An estimated 49–63 faculty enter the workforce annually from various training pathways. Based on modelling, these faculty will likely fill current and projected open positions over the next 5 years.
Conclusions:
Paediatric cardiac critical care training has evolved, such that the majority of faculty now have dual fellowship or advanced training. The projected number of incoming faculty will likely fill open positions within the next 5 years. Institutions with existing or anticipated training programmes should be cognisant of these data and prepare graduates for an increasingly competitive market.
In this paper I return to Hegel's dispute with Kant over the conceptual ordering of external and internal purposiveness to distinguish between two conceptions of teleology at play in the contemporary function debate. I begin by outlining the three main views in the debate (the etiological, causal role and organizational views). I argue that only the organizational view can maintain the capacity of function ascriptions both to explain the presence of a trait and to identify its contribution to a current system, for it is the only view that considers teleology as a natural cause. To establish how teleology can be considered as a natural cause, advocates of the organizational view return to Kant's analysis of internal purposiveness. However, while Kant identifies the requirements that an object must meet to satisfy the demands of teleological judgment, I suggest that he denies that we can know whether they are truly met. I argue that Hegel's philosophy of nature is better equipped to determine how internal purposiveness can be considered as a natural cause, for it grounds organization in a form of purposiveness that is more fundamental than a designer's intention.
Emerging research suggests that maternal immune activation (MIA) may be associated with an increased risk of adverse neurodevelopmental and mental health outcomes in offspring. Using data from the Raine Study, we investigated whether MIA during pregnancy was associated with increased behavioral and emotional problems in offspring longitudinally across development.
Methods
Mothers (Generation 1; N = 1905) were classified into the following categories: AAAE (Asthma/Allergy/Atopy/Eczema; N = 1267); infection (during pregnancy; N = 1082); no AAAE or infection (N = 301). The Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL) was administered for offspring at ages 5, 8, 10, 14, and 17. Generalized estimating equations were used to investigate the effect of maternal immune status on CBCL scores.
Results
AAAE conditions were associated with significant increases in CBCL Total (β 2.49; CI 1.98–3.00), Externalizing (β 1.54; CI 1.05–2.03), and Internalizing (β 2.28; CI 1.80–2.76) scores. Infection conditions were also associated with increased Total (β 1.27; CI 0.77–1.78), Externalizing (β 1.18; CI 0.70–1.66), and Internalizing (β 0.76; CI 0.28–1.24) scores. Exposure to more than one AAAE and/or infection condition was associated with a greater elevation in CBCL scores than single exposures in males and females. Females showed greater increases on the Internalizing scale from MIA, while males showed similar increases on both Internalizing and Externalizing scales.
Conclusions
MIA was associated with increased behavioral and emotional problems in offspring throughout childhood and adolescence. This highlights the need to understand the relationship between MIA, fetal development, and long-term outcomes, with the potential to advance early identification and intervention strategies.
Beginning with loose aggregations of dust particles coated with heterogeneous ices under vacuum at Kuiper Belt temperatures, moving to Jupiter/Saturn distances and eventually to low-perihelion orbit, we consider the likely development of the gaseous phase within a cometary nucleus over the course of its lifetime. From the perspective of physical chemistry, we consider limits on the spatial and temporal distribution and composition of this gaseous phase. The implications of the gaseous phase for heat transfer and for the possible spatial and temporal development of liquid phases are calculated. We conclude that the likely temperatures, pressures, and compositions beneath the outer crust of typical cometary nuclei are such that fluidised phases can exist at significant depths and that these reservoirs give a coherent explanation for the high-intensity outbursts observed from cometary nuclei at large distances from perihelion.
Recent years have seen a surge in interest in mental healthcare and some reduction in stigma. Partly as a result of this, alongside a growing population and higher levels of societal distress, many more people are presenting with mental health needs, often in crisis. Systems that date back to the beginning of the National Health Service still form the basis for much care, and the current system is complex, hard to navigate and often fails people. Law enforcement services are increasingly being drawn into providing mental healthcare in the community, which most believe is inappropriate. We propose that it is now time for a fundamental root and branch review of mental health emergency care, taking into account the views of patients and the international evidence base, to ‘reset’ the balance and commission services that are humane and responsive – services that are fit for the 21st century.
We investigated the impact of discontinuation of contact precautions for methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus and vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus infected or colonized patients on central-line associated bloodstream infection rates at an academic children’s hospital. Discontinuation of contact precautions with a bundled horizontal infection prevention platform resulted in no adverse impact on CLABSI rates.
This article develops the concept of ‘frontline diplomacy’ – what practitioners referring to work in embassies, consulates, and permanent representation as ‘the field’ –, defined here as all diplomats’ activities taking place away from headquarters. IR scholarship tends to focus on Ministries of Foreign Affairs located in capitals. On the contrary, building on the practice turn in IR, we first show that international politics emerge from frontline practices. Adding to criticism against the practice turn, we then explain that it has missed important transformations occurring in frontline diplomacy because it tends to privilege stability over change. We finally discuss two innovations in frontline practices: the action of Sherpas in G20 summits following the 2008 crisis and the use of Twitter by US Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul (2012–14). For each we answer three questions: How do these activities transform traditional modes of operation? How are non-state actors involved in them? What do they tell about transformation of global politics? Because diplomatic practices at the frontlines epitomise international politics, these new directions for inquiry contribute substantively to IR scholarship. At the theoretical level, they enrich the continuing encounter between IR and diplomatic studies through practice theory and help to understand change in practice.
Better indicators of prognosis are needed to personalise post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) treatments.
Aims
We aimed to evaluate early symptom reduction as a predictor of better outcome and examine predictors of early response.
Method
Patients with PTSD (N = 134) received sertraline or prolonged exposure in a randomised trial. Early response was defined as 20% PTSD symptom reduction by session two and good end-state functioning defined as non-clinical levels of PTSD, depression and anxiety.
Results
Early response rates were similar in prolonged exposure and sertraline (40 and 42%), but in sertraline only, early responders were four times more likely to achieve good end-state functioning at post-treatment (Number Needed to Treat = 1.8, 95% CI 1.28–3.00) and final follow-up (Number Needed to Treat = 3.1, 95% CI 1.68–16.71). Better outcome expectations of sertraline also predicted higher likelihood of early response.
Conclusions
Higher expectancy of sertraline coupled with early response may produce a cascade-like effect for optimal conditions for long-term symptom reduction. Therefore, assessing expectations and providing clear treatment rationales may optimise sertraline effects.
Prisoner's Dilemma (PD) games have become a well-established paradigm for studying the mechanisms by which cooperative behavior may evolve in societies consisting of selfish individuals. Recent research has focused on the effect of spatial and connectivity structure in promoting the emergence of cooperation in scenarios where individuals play games with their neighbors, using simple “memoryless” rules to decide their choice of strategy in repeated games. While heterogeneity and structural features such as clustering have been seen to lead to reasonable levels of cooperation in very restricted settings, no conditions on network structure have been established, which robustly ensure the emergence of cooperation in a manner that is not overly sensitive to parameters such as network size, average degree, or the initial proportion of cooperating individuals. Here, we consider a natural random network model, with parameters that allow us to vary the level of “community” structure in the network, as well as the number of high degree hub nodes. We investigate the effect of varying these structural features and show that, for appropriate choices of these parameters, cooperative behavior does now emerge in a truly robust fashion and to a previously unprecedented degree. The implication is that cooperation (as modelled here by PD games) can become the social norm in societal structures divided into smaller communities, and in which hub nodes provide the majority of inter-community connections.
Introduction: Telephone quitlines are an easily accessible and effective means for delivering cessation services including nicotine replacement therapy (NRT). Varenicline (VAR) may show superior quit rates to NRT, but has not been routinely evaluated in the context of quitlines.
Aims: To assess the feasibility of distributing VAR through a quitline, and preliminarily compare cessation rates between participants receiving VAR and NRT.
Methods: Participants were recruited through the New York State Smokers’ Quitline. Those randomised to VAR (n = 200) were instructed to obtain a prescription from their primary care physician (PCP) to be filled by mail through the research pharmacy. Those randomised to NRT (n = 100) were mailed NRT using an existing protocol. Outcome measures were number of submitted prescriptions and dispensed medication kits, and self-reported 7-day point prevalence abstinence at follow-up.
Results: The research pharmacy filled 100% of prescriptions through the quitline. However, only 27% of the VAR Arm submitted a prescription. An intent-to-treat analysis revealed that those receiving NRT were more likely to be abstinent at follow-up than the VAR Arm (OR, 2.42; 95% CI, 1.27–4.60; p < 0.01). The per-protocol analysis, which only included those in the VAR Arm who submitted a prescription, showed no difference in quit rates.
Conclusions: The present protocol resulted in successful delivery of VAR through the quitline, but a sizable proportion of the VAR Arm did not submit a prescription. Self-reported barriers included being unable to obtain a prescription from a PCP. Future studies should explore alternative methods for delivering VAR through quitlines.
Forest ecosystems in South Africa are at risk from a variety of anthropogenic threats impacting the faunal species dependent on them. These impacts often differ depending on species-specific characteristics. Range data on forest dependent bird species from the South African Bird Atlas Project (SABAP1 and SABAP2) were analysed to determine links between deforestation, species characteristics and range declines. Half of the species studied were found to have declining ranges. Range change data for these species were correlated with data on changes in land cover from 1990 to 2014. To determine which land cover changes affect extinction, occupancy was modelled for 30 sites across South Africa which experienced a loss of more than 10 species. Most species lost were birds of prey or insectivores. Indigenous forest decreased in 17% (n = 5) sites, while plantations/woodlots decreased in 60% (n = 18) sites. Occupancy modelling showed extinction to be mitigated by plantations in 6/28 species, and forest expansion mitigated extinction in 7/28 species. Responses to deforestation did not appear to be related to particular species characteristics. Half of South Africa’s forest-dependent bird species have declining ranges, with the loss of these species most prominent in the Eastern Cape province. Four responses to changes in forest and plantation cover are discussed: direct effects, with forest loss causing species loss; matrix effects, where plantation loss resulted in species loss; degradation of indigenous forest; and the advent of new forest arising from woody thickening caused by carbon fertilisation, which may not result in optimal habitat for forest-dependent birds.
Dietary advice is fundamental in the prevention and management of type 2 diabetes (T2DM). Advice is improved by individual assessment but existing methods are time-consuming and require expertise. We developed a twenty-five-item questionnaire, the UK Diabetes and Diet Questionnaire (UKDDQ), for quick assessment of an individual’s diet. The present study examined the UKDDQ’s repeatability and relative validity compared with 4 d food diaries.
Design
The UKDDQ was completed twice with a median 3 d gap (interquartile range=1–7 d) between tests. A 4 d food diary was completed after the second UKDDQ. Diaries were analysed and food groups were mapped on to the UKDDQ. Absolute agreement between total scores was examined using intra-class correlation (ICC). Agreement for individual items was tested with Cohen’s weighted kappa (κw).
Setting
South West of England.
Subjects
Adults (n 177, 50·3 % women) with, or at high risk for, T2DM; mean age 55·8 (sd 8·6) years, mean BMI 34·4 (sd 7·3) kg/m2; participants were 91 % White British.
Results
The UKDDQ showed excellent repeatability (ICC=0·90 (0·82, 0·94)). For individual items, κw ranged from 0·43 (‘savoury pastries’) to 0·87 (‘vegetables’). Total scores from the UKDDQ and food diaries compared well (ICC=0·54 (0·27, 0·70)). Agreement for individual items varied and was good for ‘alcohol’ (κw=0·71) and ‘breakfast cereals’ (κw=0·70), with no agreement for ‘vegetables’ (κw=0·08) or ‘savoury pastries’ (κw=0·09).
Conclusions
The UKDDQ is a new British dietary questionnaire with excellent repeatability. Comparisons with food diaries found agreements similar to those for international dietary questionnaires currently in use. It targets foods and habits important in diabetes prevention and management.
The South African coast contains abundant estuaries and lagoons, most of which originated as river valleys incised during Quaternary sea-level fall and subsequently drowned and/or infilled during rising interglacial sea levels. This chapter discusses these changes and highlights the geomorphological and sedimentological evolution of several southern African estuaries during the Pleistocene to present. The development, infilling and positioning of incised valley systems is mainly controlled by sea-level variation as well as fluvial and marine sediment supply. Most contemporary estuaries in southern Africa show dramatic responses to shorter term sea-level fluctuations and sediment supply during the Holocene. Barring anthropogenic interference, the dynamic behaviour of estuaries, dictated by their transient position and geomorphic character within an incised valley, is considered to fluctuate on centennial to millennial timescales.
We investigate symbolic and regular powers of monomial ideals. For a square-free monomial ideal I ⊆ 𝕜[x0, … , xn] we show that for all positive integers m, t and r, where e is the big-height of I and . This captures two conjectures (r = 1 and r = e): one of Harbourne and Huneke, and one of Bocci et al. We also introduce the symbolic polyhedron of a monomial ideal and use this to explore symbolic powers of non-square-free monomial ideals.
Alan Turing's short life ran from 1912 to 1954. The inspiration for this volume lay in the centenary of his birth. But Barry Cooper and I, as editors, wanted the word ‘future’ in our title, as well as a reference to the past. We chose the provocative title The Once and Future Turing, alluding to the legend of King Arthur's tomb. We invited a range of distinguished contributors to give us snapshots of scientific work which rest upon Turing's original discoveries, and share the spirit of his thought, but which also give a glimpse of something lying beyond the present. The result is a volume of 15 papers, whose authors responded to our prompting in utterly different ways.
Turing himself was not reticent about advancing visions of the future. Famously, he did so in his classic 1950 paper ‘Computing machinery and intelligence’. He was not always right. Few people would claim that his 50-year prediction for machine intelligence, cautiously phrased as it was, has been fulfilled. On the other hand, he underestimated the potential for fast, cheap, huge-scale computing. His 1948 picture of the future of computer hardware correctly identified the speed of light as the critical constraint governing computing speed. But his assumption of centimetre-scale electronic components overlooked the enormous potential for miniaturisation. Turing's foresight was more strikingly demonstrated by his 1946 observations about the power of the universal machine and the future of what would now be called the software industry; ‘every known process has got to be translated into instruction table form … ’
In 1946 he could speak with the confidence of being the mastermind of the Anglo-American crypto war – with its own legacy for the future of international relations, which, to say the least, has not yet been evaluated. In 1939 he and Gordon Welchman had pulled off the feat of persuading the British authorities to make a huge investment in the untried technology of the Turing Bombe, on the conviction, correct as it turned out, that its logical brilliance would transform British fortunes. This vision was not his alone. To beat Hitler, Bletchley Park seems to have borrowed from the future, scientifically, organisationally and socially, as if the sixties had arrived before the forties.
The world is open for fresh ideas about fundamentals of mind, matter, information, space and time. Turing made just such a plunge in 1936, undeterred by being young and new to the field. Compared with the carefully delineated and trained trajectory expected of modern research students, his d ébut seems amazing. It was extraordinary even then, being without precursor papers or collaborators. But, of course, the young Turing was not alone: Einstein and Eddington, von Neumann and Russell, had spoken volumes to his receptive mind, and he had worked hard through Cambridge mathematics. He was justifiably proud of his breakthrough as a 24-year-old, and correspondingly interested in spotting new youthful talent. His highly unconventional running with young Garner had a parallel: a wish to hand on scientific inspiration to a young person, perhaps in a way quite outside the standard academic framework. This Alan Turing indeed achieved, to some extent, but maybe he has still more to do.
These essays themselves, with their unusual connections and incomplete conclusions, might stimulate new minds with new thoughts. Miguel Walsh, winner of the 2014 Ramanujan Prize, explains how he learned about outstanding problems in mathematics from the Internet, while otherwise isolated in Argentina. We are reminded of how Srinivasa Ramanujan himself emerged from isolation, in the very India where Alan Turing was conceived, through the old mechanism of print and post offices. In the last century, the universal machine has greatly accelerated and amplified such global interaction. Who knows! The history of science depends on the strangest encounters of human brains. The once and future Turing both take their life from the unpredictable and sometimes highly inconvenient magic of human thought.