The volume and value of international trade have grown at exceptional rates in the years since World War II, rates of growth that are significantly higher than those for population or production. In a substantial measure the gains in global welfare that have been achieved during this period are attributable to the growth in international trade. The reduction of barriers to trade, accomplished through the instrumentality of a modest international institution, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), has played a major role in facilitating the growth of international trade. GATT is currently, however, at a critical juncture. The issue that GATT faces is: can the liberalized conditions for international trade that have been achieved through complicated and time-consuming negotiations be maintained and extended or will the world drift—or perhaps even rush—toward protectionism?

The trade ministers of GATT's 88 member states meeting in Geneva last November sought to promote further progress toward liberalization or at least to prevent backsliding. Whether or not their efforts will succeed remains to be seen. The obstacles in the way of success are formidable, and the instruments for overcoming them are fragile.

In the last few years a computing revolution has been started. We have arrived at a point where an individual can have access to a personal computer that has real advantages over larger minicomputers and mainframes for a number of significant applications. When the further step is taken of providing a communications link between that personal computer and those larger systems, the overall result is a combination of capabilities of unprecedented potential.

As in any revolution, there have been problems and mistakes along the path. Indeed there are still shortcomings and hazards to be avoided. Nonetheless, there are personal computing systems available which offer many advantages for a wide spectrum of academic and professional people. This document is intended as an overview of what is currently marketed, providing reference points for the interested individual.

Political scientists are charged with explaining the recurrent elements in the politics of presidential selection. Journalists are charged with explaining the elements of the moment. The best political scientists are nevertheless able to apply their larger analytic framework to the specific developments of the day. Just as the best journalists are able to frame those developments in some larger theoretical context. Political history, however, has been notably unkind to political scientists and journalists alike, when it comes to predicting the specific outcome of contests over presidential nominations—and elections. Inevitably, then, the year 1984 appears as the next challenge to scholarly, and journalistic, interpretation.

The principal sources of change in the contemporary politics of presidential selection, those categories of events which are the meat of working journalists, are themselves comparatively stable and would thus seem ideally suited to the investigations of working political scientists as well. These include the institutional framework for the nomination and then the election. They include the field of contenders which begins the chase for a nomination, and narrows in the conflict over final election. They include major public issues, both those which surface with some regularity and those which really are specific to one presidential year. And they include the organized interest groups, recognized constituencies, and rank-and-file individuals who participate at varying levels and in varying mixes from campaign to campaign. In the face of these regularized elements of change, of course, the strategies and tactics of elite contenders and mass participants also reliably shift. For 1984, every one of these categories shows some further evolution, or at least some new, noteworthy twist.

The meeting of the ministers of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) in Geneva last November produced a little-noted but significant accomplishment. In the final hours of difficult, and at times acrimonious, debate, the ministers agreed to initiate a study on international trade in services–industries such as banking, insurance, communications, data processing, engineering and shipping. In the text of the final communique, GATT's contracting parties agreed to:

• Recommend that each contracting party undertake a national examination of service sector issues;

• Invite contracting parties to exchange this information among themselves and through international organizations, such as the GATT, on as uniform a basis as possible; and

• Review the information at their 1984 session to determine whether a multilateral framework on services is desirable, and, if so, how to proceed.

Although a modest step, the accord marks an economic milestone, for it is the first time that GATT's contracting parties have agreed to examine trade in services with the possibility of expanding international trade rules to cover services as well as goods.

An impressive number of reasonably priced personal computer software packages of interest to political scientists are now on the market. Owners of computers such as the TRS-80 Model III and the Apple II can purchase software for word processing and statistical analysis which can substantially increase their productivity. Scholars trying to meet publication deadlines need no longer be delayed by harried secretaries trying single-handedly to meet the needs of an entire department. A computer/word processor used by a typist of average ability is nearly the equal of a good professional secretary. And those with even fairly large statistical analysis requirements may no longer be tied to the university's hectic “computer center” where they must wait in line for terminals, try to think amid constant movement and never-ending conversation, or suffer errors produced by noise injected between their terminal and the main frame along telephone lines.

This is an analysis of statistical packages sold by four companies for use on a variety of low, moderate, and high priced personal computers. Our focus on these packages reflects our statistical needs for research and teaching. We were looking for programs capable of handling relatively large data bases and with the capacity to perform multiple regression and time series analyses. We needed a program that could be used to analyze data generated from small survey samples. This required both frequency distribution and contingency table development and analysis. Finally, we needed a program or programs in an affordable price range.