An innovative strategy to reduce dengue transmission uses the bacterium Wolbachia. We analysed the effects of Wolbachia on dengue transmission dynamics in the presence of two serotypes of dengue using a mathematical model, allowing for differences in the epidemiological characteristics of the serotypes. We found that Wolbachia has a greater effect on secondary infections than on primary infections across a range of epidemiological characteristics. If one serotype is more transmissible than the other, it will dominate primary infections and Wolbachia will be less effective at reducing secondary infections of either serotype. Differences in the antibody-dependent enhancement of the two serotypes have considerably less effect on the benefits of Wolbachia than differences in transmission probability. Even if the antibody-dependent enhancement rate is high, Wolbachia is still effective in reducing dengue. Our findings suggest that Wolbachia will be effective in the presence of more than one serotype of dengue; however, a better understanding of serotype-specific differences in transmission probability may be needed to optimize delivery of a Wolbachia intervention.

Acinetobacter baumannii is a significant nosocomial pathogen often associated with extreme drug resistance (XDR). In Argentina, isolates of A. baumannii resistant to tetracyclines have accounted for more than 40% of drug-resistant isolates in some hospitals. We have previously reported the dispersion of the tet(B) resistance element associated with the ISCR2 transposase in epidemiologically unrelated A. baumannii isolates recovered from 1983 to 2011. This study extends this surveillance to 77 recent (2009–2013) XDR A. baumannii isolates with different levels of minocycline susceptibility. Isolates were examined by a pan-PCR assay, which showed six different amplification patterns, and specific PCRs were used for the confirmation of the the ΔISCR2-tet(B)-tet(R)-ISCR2 element. The tet(B) gene was present in 66 isolates and the ISCR2 element in 68 isolates; the tet(B) gene was associated with ISCR2 in all tet(B)-positive isolates. We conclude that this element is widespread in XDR A. baumannii isolates from Argentina and could be responsible for the emergence of tetracycline resistance in recent years.

Zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ZCL) constitutes a serious public health problem in many parts of the world including Iran. This study was carried out to assess the risk of the disease in an endemic province by developing spatial environmentally based models in yearly intervals. To fill the gap of underestimated true burden of ZCL and short study period, analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy AHP decision-making methods were used to determine the ZCL risk zones in a Geographic Information System platform. Generated risk maps showed that high-risk areas were predominantly located at the northern and northeastern parts in each of the three study years. Comparison of the generated risk maps with geocoded ZCL cases at the village level demonstrated that in both methods more than 90%, 70% and 80% of the cases occurred in high and very high risk areas for the years 2010, 2011, and 2012, respectively. Moreover, comparison of the risk categories with spatially averaged normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) images and a digital elevation model of the study region indicated persistent strong negative relationships between these environmental variables and ZCL risk degrees. These findings identified more susceptible areas of ZCL and will help the monitoring of this zoonosis to be more targeted.

In order to describe the molecular epidemiology of Blastocystis infection in Italy, 189 isolates, which had been collected during the years 2012–2014 from mildly symptomatic patients, or those affected by inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) or chronic diarrhoea, or otherwise immunosuppressed, were subtyped by sequence analysis of the SSU rRNA gene (536 bp). Six subtypes (STs) were detected: ST1 (15·3%), ST2 (13·8%), ST3 (46·0%), ST4 (21·7%), ST6 (3·2%) and ST8 (0·5%). They clustered in distinct clades, as inferred from Bayesian inference phylogenetic and median joining network analyses. A high genetic differentiation was found at the inter-subtype level; it ranged from Jukes–Cantor (JC) distance = 0·02 (between ST1 and ST4) to JC = 0·11 (between ST6 and ST2). At the intra-ST level, a high genetic homogeneity was registered in ST4, whereas higher genetic variation was found in isolates corresponding to ST1 and ST2. Accordingly, high values of haplotype and nucleotide diversity were observed in ST1, ST2 and ST3. No association was found between patient gender and ST, whereas ST3 and ST1 were significantly more prevalent in patients aged 15–50 years. A significant occurrence of Blastocystis ST4 in patients suffering from IBS, IBD or chronic diarrhoea was observed; in addition, a slight significant association between ST1 and ST3 and IBS patients was found. Multiple correspondence analysis showed some significant contribution of different variables (subtypes, haplotypes, age) in the observed pattern of ordination of the 189 patients in the symptom categories.

Invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD), caused by infection with Streptococcus pneumoniae, has a substantial global burden. There are over 90 known serotypes of S. pneumoniae with a considerable body of evidence supporting serotype-specific mortality rates immediately following IPD. This is the first study to consider the association between serotype and longer-term mortality following IPD. Using enhanced surveillance data from the North East of England we assessed both the short-term (30-day) and longer-term (⩽7 years) independent adjusted associations between individual serotypes and mortality following IPD diagnosis using logistic regression and extended Cox proportional hazards models. Of the 1316 cases included in the analysis, 243 [18·5%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 16·4–20·7] died within 30 days of diagnosis. Four serotypes (3, 6A, 9N, 19 F) were significantly associated with overall increased 30-day mortality. Effects were observable only for older adults (⩾60 years). After extension of the window to 12 months and 36 months, one serotype was associated with significantly increased mortality at 12 months (19 F), but no individual serotypes were associated with increased mortality at 36 months. Two serotypes had statistically significant hazard ratios (HR) for longer-term mortality: serotype 1 for reduced mortality (HR 0·51, 95% CI 0·30–0·86) and serotype 9N for increased mortality (HR 2·30, 95% CI 1·29–4·37). The association with serotype 9N was no longer observed after limiting survival analysis to an observation period starting 30 days after diagnosis. This study supports the evidence for associations between serotype and short-term (30-day) mortality following IPD and provides the first evidence for the existence of statistically significant associations between individual serotypes and longer-term variation in mortality following IPD.

Epidemiological data regarding group A streptococcal (GAS) infections in South East Asia are scarce with no information from Laos. We characterized emm types, emm clusters and the antibiotic resistance profile of 124 GAS isolates recovered in Laos during 2004–2013. Most strains were recovered from skin and invasive infections (76% and 19%, respectively). Thirty-four emm types were identified as belonging to 12 emm clusters and no novel emm types were identified. No significant differences were observed in the distribution of emm types or emm clusters according to age or site of recovery (skin or invasive infections). There was moderate strain diversity in this country but considerable differences in emm-type distribution between Laos, Thailand and Cambodia. Vaccine coverage was high for the J8 vaccine candidate. The theoretical coverage for the 30-valent vaccine candidate needs further investigation. Antibiotic resistance was moderate to erythromycin and chloramphenicol (8% and 7%, respectively) and low to ofloxacin (<1%).

Hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) is the most frequently reported fatal rodent-borne disease in Brazil, with the majority of cases occurring in Santa Catarina. We analysed the clinical, laboratory and epidemiological data of the 251 confirmed cases of HPS in Santa Catarina in 1999–2011. The number of cases ranged from 10 to 47 per year, with the highest incidences in 2004–2006. Gastrointestinal tract manifestations were found in >60% of the cases, potentially confounding diagnosis and leading to inappropriate therapy. Dyspnoea, acute respiratory failure, renal failure, increased serum creatinine and urea levels, increased haematocrits and the presence of pulmonary interstitial infiltrate were significantly more common in HPS patients who died. In addition, we demonstrated that the six cases from the midwest region of the state were associated with Juquitiba virus genotype. The case-fatality rate in this region, 19·2%, was lower than that recorded for other mesoregions. In the multivariate analysis increase of serum creatinine and urea was associated with death by HPS. Our findings help elucidate the epidemiology of HPS in Brazil, where mast seeding of bamboo can trigger rodent population eruptions and subsequent human HPS outbreaks. We also emphasize the need for molecular confirmation of the hantavirus genotype of human cases for a better understanding of the mortality-related factors associated with HPS cases in Brazil.

Human illness attribution is recognized as an important metric for prioritizing and informing food-safety decisions and for monitoring progress towards long-term food-safety goals. Inferences regarding the proportion of illnesses attributed to a specific commodity class are often based on analyses of datasets describing the number of outbreaks in a given year or combination of years. In many countries, the total number of pathogen-related outbreaks reported nationwide for an implicated food source is often fewer than 50 instances in a given year and the number of years for which data are available can be fewer than 10. Therefore, a high degree of uncertainty is associated with the estimated fraction of pathogen-related outbreaks attributed to a general food commodity. Although it is possible to make inferences using only data from the most recent year, this type of estimation strategy ignores the data collected in previous years. Thus, a strong argument exists for an estimator that could ‘borrow strength’ from data collected in the previous years by combining the current data with the data from previous years. While many estimators exist for combining multiple years of data, most either require more data than is currently available or lack an objective and biologically plausible theoretical basis. This study introduces an estimation strategy that progressively reduces the influence of data collected in past years in accordance with the degree of departure from a Poisson process. The methodology is applied to the estimation of the attribution fraction for Salmonella and Escherichia coli O157:H7 for common food commodities and the estimates are compared against two alternative estimators.

Immigrants and their children who return to their country of origin to visit friends and relatives (VFR) are at increased risk of acquiring infectious diseases compared to other travellers. VFR travel is an important disease control issue, as one quarter of Australia's population are foreign-born and one quarter of departing Australian international travellers are visiting friends and relatives. We conducted a 1-year prospective enhanced surveillance study in New South Wales and Victoria, Australia to determine the contribution of VFR travel to notifiable diseases associated with travel, including typhoid, paratyphoid, measles, hepatitis A, hepatitis E, malaria and chikungunya. Additional data on characteristics of international travel were collected. Recent international travel was reported by 180/222 (81%) enhanced surveillance cases, including all malaria, chikungunya and paratyphoid cases. The majority of cases who acquired infections during travel were immigrant Australians (96, 53%) or their Australian-born children (43, 24%). VFR travel was reported by 117 (65%) travel-associated cases, highest for typhoid (31/32, 97%). Cases of children (aged <18 years) (86%) were more frequently VFR travellers compared to adult travellers (57%, P < 0·001). VFR travel is an important contributor to imported disease in Australia. Communicable disease control strategies targeting these travellers, such as targeted health promotion, are likely to impact importation of these travel-related infections.

Leptospirosis is a zoonosis caused by bacteria of the genus Leptospira. The disease is globally distributed and a major public health concern. The Norway rat (Rattus norvegicus) is the main reservoir of the pathogen in urban slums of developing and developed countries. The potential routes of intra-specific leptospire transmission in rats are largely unknown. Herein, we identified pathogenic Leptospira spp. in breast tissue and milk of naturally infected rats. We examined kidney, breast tissue and milk from 24 lactating rats for the presence of leptospires using immunofluorescence, immunohistochemistry, polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and scanning electronic microscopy. All 24 rats had evidence for Leptospira in the kidneys, indicating chronic carriage. The majority of kidney-positive rats had detectable leptospires in milk (18, 75%) and breast tissue (16, 67%), as evidenced by immunofluorescence assay and immunohistochemistry. Four (17%) milk samples and two (8%) breast tissue samples were positive by quantitative real-time PCR. Scanning electron microscopy confirmed the presence of leptospires in breast tissue. No major pathological changes in breast tissue were found. This study, for the first time, identified leptospires in the milk and breast tissue of wild Norway rats, suggesting the possibility of milk-borne transmission of leptospirosis to neonates.

ST131 Escherichia coli is an emergent clonal group that has achieved successful worldwide spread through a combination of virulence and antimicrobial resistance. Our aim was to develop a mathematical model, based on current knowledge of the epidemiology of ESBL-producing and non-ESBL-producing ST131 E. coli, to provide a framework enabling a better understanding of its spread within the community, in hospitals and long-term care facilities, and the potential impact of specific interventions on the rates of infection. A model belonging to the SEIS (Susceptible–Exposed–Infected–Susceptible) class of compartmental models, with specific modifications, was developed. Quantification of the model is based on the law of mass preservation, which helps determine the relationships between flows of individuals and different compartments. Quantification is deterministic or probabilistic depending on subpopulation size. The assumptions for the model are based on several developed epidemiological studies. Based on the assumptions of the model, an intervention capable of sustaining a 25% reduction in person-to-person transmission shows a significant reduction in the rate of infections caused by ST131; the impact is higher for non-ESBL-producing ST131 isolates than for ESBL producers. On the other hand, an isolated intervention reducing exposure to antimicrobial agents has much more limited impact on the rate of ST131 infection. Our results suggest that interventions achieving a continuous reduction in the transmission of ST131 in households, nursing homes and hospitals offer the best chance of reducing the burden of the infections caused by these isolates.

A challenge to the development of foodborne illness prevention measures is determining the sources of enteric illness. Microbial subtyping source-attribution models attribute illnesses to various sources, requiring data characterizing bacterial isolate subtypes collected from human and food sources. We evaluated the use of antimicrobial resistance data on isolates of Salmonella enterica serotype Hadar, collected from ill humans, food animals, and from retail meats, in two microbial subtyping attribution models. We also compared model results when either antimicrobial resistance or pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) patterns were used to subtype isolates. Depending on the subtyping model used, 68–96% of the human infections were attributed to meat and poultry food products. All models yielded similar outcomes, with 86% [95% confidence interval (CI) 80–91] to 91% (95% CI 88–96) of the attributable infections attributed to turkey, and 6% (95% CI 2–10) to 14% (95% CI 8–20) to chicken. Few illnesses (<3%) were attributed to cattle or swine. Results were similar whether the isolates were obtained from food animals during processing or from retail meat products. Our results support the view that microbial subtyping models are a flexible and robust approach for attributing Salmonella Hadar.

Puumala hantavirus (PUUV) causes haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in humans, an endemic disease in Finland. We aimed to study recent trends in PUUV infections in Finland, to evaluate whether there are regional differences in seasonality and long-term cycles and whether the patterns have changed over time. We analysed serologically confirmed acute PUUV infections reported to the National Infectious Disease Register from 1 April 1995 to 31 March 2014. A total of 30 942 cases of PUUV infections were identified during the study period. The average annual incidence was 31 cases/100 000 person-years with the highest in Eastern Finland and the lowest in Southwestern Finland. Throughout Finland there was not an increasing trend in incidence but changes in incidence, seasonality and long-term cycles differed regionally. Long-term cycles supported by high Bayesian posterior probabilities (73–100%) differed between the south and the north, shifting from 3 to 4 years, respectively. Temporal changes in seasonality were most prominent in Southwestern Finland. The pattern of human PUUV infection epidemiology probably primarily reflects the spatio-temporal interaction between bank-vole population dynamics and climate.

Epidemiological studies use georeferenced health data to identify disease clusters but the accuracy of this georeferencing is obfuscated by incorrectly assigning the source of infection and by aggregating case data to larger geographical areas. Often, place of residence (residence) is used as a proxy for the source of infection (source) which may not be accurate. Using a 21-year dataset from South Australia of human infections with the mosquito-borne Ross River virus, we found that 37% of cases were believed to have been acquired away from home. We constructed two risk maps using age-standardized morbidity ratios (SMRs) calculated using residence and patient-reported source. Both maps confirm significant inter-suburb variation in SMRs. Areas frequently named as the source (but not residence) and the highest-risk suburbs both tend to be tourist locations with vector mosquito habitat, and camping or outdoor recreational opportunities. We suggest the highest-risk suburbs as places to focus on for disease control measures. We also use a novel application of ambient population data (LandScan) to improve the interpretation of these risk maps and propose how this approach can aid in implementing disease abatement measures on a smaller scale than for which disease data are available.

This paper describes the diversity of rodent fauna in an area endemic for hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome (HCPS) in Brazil, the population dynamics and the relationship of rodents with hantavirus in the Cerrado (savanna-like) biome. Additionally, an analysis is made of the partial S segment sequences of the hantaviruses obtained from serologically confirmed human HCPS cases and from rodent specimens. Rodents were collected during four campaigns. Human serum samples were collected from suspected cases of HCPS at hospitals in the state of Minas Gerais. The samples antibody-reactive by ELISA were processed by RT–PCR. The PCR product was amplified and sequenced. Hantavirus was detected only in Necromys lasiurus, the wild rodent species most prevalent in the Cerrado biome (min-max: 50–83·7%). All the six human serum samples were hantavirus seropositive and five showed amplified PCR products. The analysis of the nucleotide sequences showed the circulation of a single genotype, the Araraquara hantavirus. The environmental changes that have occurred in the Cerrado biome in recent decades have favoured N. lasiurus in interspecific competition of habitats, thus increasing the risk of contact between humans and rodent species infected with hantavirus. Our data corroborate the definition of N. lasiurus as the main hantavirus reservoir in the Cerrado biome.

The incidence of invasive infections due to Neisseria meningitidis in Israel is about 1/100 000 population annually. Three cases of meningococcal meningitis were reported in employees at a single plant; the first case appeared in March 2013 and the second and third cases appeared in December, almost 9 months later. N. meningitidis serogroup B was isolated from cerebrospinal fluid samples. Multilocus sequence typing assigned the three meningococcal isolates to ST10418, a new sequence type and a member of the ST32 clonal complex. The clonality was confirmed by performance of pulsed-field gel electrophoresis. Post-exposure antibiotic prophylaxis was administered to close contacts of the first case. Upon the diagnosis of the additional two cases, post-exposure prophylaxis was administered to all the plant employees. This report demonstrates the importance of combining public health measures and advanced laboratory studies to confirm clonality and to prevent further disease spread in a closed setting.

Salmonella enterica subsp. enterica serovar Dublin (S. Dublin) is one of the non-typhoidal Salmonella (NTS); however, a relatively high proportion of human infections are associated with invasive disease. We applied whole genome sequencing to representative invasive and non-invasive clinical isolates of S. Dublin to determine the genomic variations among them and to investigate the underlying genetic determinants associated with invasiveness in S. Dublin. Although no particular genomic variation was found to differentiate in invasive and non-invasive isolates four virulence factors were detected within the genome of all isolates including two different type VI secretion systems (T6SS) encoded on two Salmonella pathogenicity islands (SPI), including SPI-6 (T6SSSPI-6) and SPI-19 (T6SSSPI-19), an intact lambdoid prophage (Gifsy-2-like prophage) that contributes significantly to the virulence and pathogenesis of Salmonella serotypes in addition to a virulence plasmid. These four virulence factors may all contribute to the potential of S. Dublin to cause invasive disease in humans.

Boiling is the most common method of household water treatment in developing countries; however, it is not always effectively practised. We conducted a randomized controlled trial among 210 households to assess the effectiveness of water pasteurization and safe-storage interventions in reducing Escherichia coli contamination of household drinking water in a water-boiling population in rural Peru. Households were randomized to receive either a safe-storage container or a safe-storage container plus water pasteurization indicator or to a control group. During a 13-week follow-up period, households that received a safe-storage container and water pasteurization indicator did not have a significantly different prevalence of stored drinking-water contamination relative to the control group [prevalence ratio (PR) 1·18, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0·92–1·52]. Similarly, receipt of a safe-storage container alone had no effect on prevalence of contamination (PR 1·02, 95% CI 0·79–1·31). Although use of water pasteurization indicators and locally available storage containers did not increase the safety of household drinking water in this study, future research could illuminate factors that facilitate the effective use of these interventions to improve water quality and reduce the risk of waterborne disease in populations that boil drinking water.