Estimation of farm prevalence is common in veterinary research. Typically, not all animals within the farm are sampled, and imperfect tests are used. Often, assumptions about herd sizes and sampling proportions are made, which may be invalid in smallholder settings. We propose an alternative method for estimating farm prevalence in the context of Brucella seroprevalence estimation in an endemic region of Kazakhstan. We collected 210 milk samples from Otar district, with a population of about 1000 cattle and 16 000 small ruminants, and tested them using an indirect ELISA. Individual-level prevalence and 95% confidence intervals were estimated using Taylor series linearization. A model was developed to estimate the smallholding prevalence, taking into account variable sampling proportions and uncertainty in the test accuracy. We estimate that 73% of households that we sampled had at least one Brucella-seropositive animal (95% credible interval 68–82). We estimate that 58% (95% confidence interval 40–76) of lactating small ruminants and 14% (95% confidence interval 1–28) of lactating cows were seropositive. Our results suggest that brucellosis is highly endemic in the area and conflict with those of the official brucellosis-testing programme, which found that in 2013 0% of cows and 1·7% of small ruminants were seropositive.

The increasing prevalence of extended-spectrum β-lactamase (ESBL)-producing Gram-negative bacteria is a serious threat for current healthcare settings. In this study we investigated the molecular epidemiology of ESBL-producing E. coli at the University Medical Center Göttingen in Lower Saxony, Germany. All E. coli isolates with an ESBL phenotype were collected during a 6-month period in 2014. Multilocus sequence typing and CTX-M characterization were performed on 160 isolates. Of the ESBL-producing isolates 95·6% were CTX-M positive. Compared to recent Germany-wide studies, we found CTX-M-1 to occur in higher frequency than CTX-M-15 (44·4% vs. 34·4%). CTX-M-14 and CTX-M-27 were detected at 9·4% and 5·0%, respectively. The globally dominant sequence type (ST) 131, which is often associated with CTX-M-15, occurred at a relatively low rate of 24%. Major non-ST131 sequence types were ST101 (5%), ST58 (5%), ST10 (4·4%), ST38 (4·4%), ST410 (3·8%) and ST453 (3·1%). Several of these major sequence types were previously shown to be associated with livestock farming. Together, our study indicates that E. coli lineage distribution in individual healthcare settings can significantly differ from average numbers obtained in nationwide studies.

Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is an acute contagious condition caused by a spectrum of human enteroviruses. HFMD reinfection is common in the absence of cross-protection from other virus subtypes. This study focused on reinfection in children in Anhui province, China between 2008 and 2013 using surveillance system data. We classified 8960 cases as reinfected, corresponding to a rate of 2·02%. The reinfection rate was higher in boys than in girls [odds ratio (OR) 1·27, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1·21–1·32, P < 0·001], children aged < 3 years (OR 3·82, 95% CI 3·58–4·07, P < 0·001), and children living in rural areas (OR 1·09, 95% CI 1·04–1·14, P = 0·001). The reinfection rate in children who were originally infected with non-enterovirus A71 (non-EVA71) enteroviruses was higher than those infected with EVA71 (OR 1·36, 95% CI 1·02–1·80, P = 0·034). Influential factors of reinfection rate included annual incidence (β coefficient = 0·715, P = 0·002) and the proportion of EVA71 in patients with mild HFMD (β coefficient = −0·509, P = 0·018). These results demonstrate that boys aged <3 years, especially those in rural areas or regions with a lower EVA71 proportion are more prone to reinfection, and specific health education programmes should be developed to protect these susceptible populations.

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) has become a global public health problem. Many studies have been conducted to identify risk factors for HCV infection. However, some of these studies reported inconsistent results. Using data collected from 11 methadone clinics, we fit both a non-spatial logistical regression and a geographically weighted logistic regression to analyse the association between HCV infection and some factors at the individual level. This study enrolled 5401 patients with 30·0% HCV infection prevalence. The non-spatial logistical regression found that injection history, drug rehabilitation history and senior high-school education or above were related to HCV infection; and being married was negatively associated with HCV infection. Using the spatial model, we found that Yi ethnicity was negatively related to HCV infection in 62·0% of townships, and being married was negatively associated with HCV infection in 81·0% of townships. Senior high-school education or above was positively associated with HCV infection in 55·2% of townships of the Yi Autonomous Prefecture. The spatial model offers better understanding of the geographical variations of the risk factors associated with HCV infection. The geographical variations may be useful for customizing intervention strategies for local regions for more efficient allocation of limited resources to control transmission of HCV.

We investigated an outbreak of norovirus that affected students and teachers of a high school in Lleida, Spain through various transmission mechanisms. A case-control epidemiological study of the risk of disease and the relative importance of each mode of transmission was carried out. Cases and controls were selected from a systematic sample of students and teachers present at the school on 28 January. Faecal samples were taken from three food handlers and 16 cases. The influence of each factor was studied using the adjusted odds ratio (aOR) and the estimated population attributable risk (ePAR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). We interviewed 210 people (42 cases, 168 controls). The proportion of symptoms in these individuals was nausea 78·6%, vomiting 59·5%, diarrhoea 45·2%, and fever 19·0%. The epidemic curve showed transmission for at least 4 days. The risk of disease was associated with exposure to food (aOR 5·8) in 66·1% of cases and vomit (aOR 4·7) in 24·8% of cases. Faecal samples from 11 patients and two food handlers were positive for norovirus GII.12 g. Vomit may co-exist with other modes of transmission in norovirus outbreaks and could explain a large number of cases.

Case-control studies of sporadic Campylobacter infections have predominately been conducted in non-Hispanic populations. In Arizona, rates of campylobacteriosis have been historically higher than the national average, with particularly high rates in Hispanics. In 2010, health departments and a state university collaborated to conduct a statewide case-control study to determine whether risk factors differ in an ethnically diverse region of the United States. Statistically significant risk factors in the final multivariate model were: eating cantaloupe [odds ratio (OR) 7·64], handling raw poultry (OR 4·88) and eating queso fresco (OR 7·11). In addition, compared to non-Hispanic/non-travellers, the highest risk group were Hispanic/non-travellers (OR 7·27), and Hispanic/travellers (OR 5·87, not significant). Results of this study suggest Hispanics have higher odds of disease, probably due to differential exposures. In addition to common risk factors, consumption of cantaloupe was identified as a significant risk factor. These results will inform public health officials of the varying risk factors for Campylobacter in this region.

Social networks facilitate the transmission of hepatitis C virus (HCV) in people who inject drugs (PWID). The aim of this study was to assess how certain network structural characteristics are related to HCV infections in PWID and to determine the most susceptible individuals for HCV transmission in a network of PWID. PWID (N = 80) from central China were recruited from a previous follow-up case-control study. Demographic and behavioural information was obtained from a computerized database for each group. HCV RNA was extracted from blood specimens. Sequences were used to construct a phylogenetic tree and to determine genetic distances. Socio-metric social links were established between participants. Network measures were calculated using UCINET. Three HCV genotypes were identified, covering five subtypes. The density of the social networks for the whole sample (N = 80), case group (n = 31) and control group (n = 49) was 0.038, 0.054 and 0.008, respectively. PWID infected with HCV were in frequent contact with others within their group. There were four pairs of nodes with genotypic distances of 0.000 that were identified and clustered in subtypes 6a and 1b; each subject pair was linked and found in one clique. Three of the five most active nodes were infected with HCV. These three nodes served as a bridge, contributing to the connection of other nodes. These findings identify susceptible individuals for HCV transmission in PWID based on their frequent contact with others in the network. These results provide data that could be used for modelling HCV transmission patterns and in public health policies.

Leptospirosis incidence has increased markedly since 1995 in Thailand, with the eastern and northern parts being the most affected regions, particularly during flooding events. Here, we attempt to overview the evolution of human prevalence during the past decade and identify the environmental factors that correlate with the incidence of leptospirosis and the clinical incidence in humans. We used an extensive survey of Leptospira infection in rodents conducted in 2008 and 2009 and the human incidence of the disease from 2003 to 2012 in 168 villages of two districts of Nan province in Northern Thailand. Using an ad-hoc developed land-use cover implemented in a geographical information system we showed that humans and rodents were not infected in the same environment/habitat in the land-use cover. High village prevalence was observed in open habitat near rivers for the whole decade, or in 2008–2009 mostly in rice fields prone to flooding, whereas infected rodents (2008–2009) were observed in patchy habitat with high forest cover, mostly situated on sloping ground areas. We also investigated the potential effects of public health campaigns conducted after the dramatic flood event of 2006. We showed that, before 2006, human incidence in villages was explained by the population size of the village according to the environmental source of infection of this disease, while as a result of the campaigns, human incidence in villages after 2006 appeared independent of their population size. This study confirms the role of the environment and particularly land use, in the transmission of bacteria, emphasized by the effects of the provincial public health campaigns on the epidemiological pattern of incidence, and questions the role of rodents as reservoirs.

Limited information is available on the seroprevalence of chikungunya virus (CHIKV) infection and maternal–fetal transmission incidence of CHIKV and dengue virus (DENV) infections during the 2008–2009 CHIKV outbreak in southern Thailand. A community-based post-epidemic seroprevalence study was conducted in parturient women admitted to the Thepa District Hospital in Songkhla Province, Thailand, for delivery from November 2009 to May 2010. The women were tested for chikungunya (CHIK) IgM/IgG and dengue (DEN) IgM/IgG. Cord blood samples were also tested for CHIK IgM or DEN IgM in women who tested positive for CHIK IgM or DEN IgM, respectively. The seroprevalence of CHIKV infection (CHIK IgM or IgG positive) was 227/319 (71·2%) with pre-outbreak seroprevalence (IgM−/IgG+) of 43·6% and the seroprevalence of DENV infection was 288/319 (90·3%). Complications during pregnancy, newborn outcomes and congenital anomalies were not different in those who had recent, remote or no CHIKV infections. None of the newborns whose mothers were CHIK or DEN IgM positive had cord blood positive for both CHIK and DEN IgM. In conclusion, both CHIKV and DENV are endemic in southern Thailand; during the recent CHIKV outbreak CHIK seroprevalence increased from 43·6% to 71·2%.

We studied the epidemiology and microbiology of Clostridium difficile and the characteristics of patients with C. difficile infection (CDI) in Crete in three groups of hospitalized patients with diarrhoea: group 1 [positive culture and positive toxin by enzyme immunoassay (EIA)]; group 2 (positive culture, negative toxin); group 3 (negative culture, negative toxin). Patients in group 1 were designated as those with definitive CDI (20 patients for whom data was available) and matched with cases in group 2 (40 patients) and group 3 (40 patients). C. difficile grew from 6% (263/4379) of stool specimens; 14·4% of these had positive EIA, of which 3% were resistant to metronidazole. Three isolates had decreased vancomycin susceptibility. Patients in groups 1 and 2 received more antibiotics (P = 0·03) and had more infectious episodes (P = 0·03) than patients in group 3 prior to diarrhoea. Antibiotic administration for C. difficile did not differ between groups 1 and 2. Mortality was similar in all three groups (10%, 12·5% and 5%, P = 0·49). CDI frequency was low in the University Hospital of Crete and isolates were susceptible to metronidazole and vancomycin.

The aim of this study was to investigate the epidemiological profile of HPV oropharyngeal infections in HIV-infected men who have sex with men. A total of 135 subjects were enrolled at the L. Sacco University Hospital (Milan, Italy) to evaluate their HPV oropharyngeal infection status at baseline and at a follow-up visit at least 12 months later. HPV DNA was detected from oropharyngeal swabs using an in-house nested PCR that amplifies a segment of the L1 gene. The PCR products were then sequenced and genotyped. A greater percentage of high-risk genotypes was identified compared to low-risk genotypes (13·7% vs. 6·9%, P < 0·05), and two uncommon alpha-HPV genotypes were detected, i.e. HPV-102 and HPV-114. HPV infection prevalence was 24·4% and the cumulative incidence was 24·1%. During the follow-up period, one case of HPV infection (HPV-33) persisted, while the overall rate of infection clearance was 58·3%. HPV oropharyngeal infection was widespread in the cohort examined, and most of the infections were transient and cleared within 12 months. These results may help to clarify the role of HPV in the oropharynx and may also improve our understanding of the need to implement preventive strategies in at-risk populations.

Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) is an important cause of gastroenteritis (GE) and haemolytic uraemic syndrome (HUS). Incidence of STEC illness is largely underestimated in notification data, particularly of serogroups other than O157 (‘non-O157’). Using HUS national notification data (2008–2012, excluding 2011), we modelled true annual incidence of STEC illness in Germany separately for O157 and non-O157 STEC, taking into account the groups’ different probabilities of causing bloody diarrhoea and HUS, and the resulting difference in their under-ascertainment. Uncertainty of input parameters was evaluated by stochastic Monte Carlo simulations. Median annual incidence (per 100 000 population) of STEC-associated HUS and STEC-GE was estimated at 0·11 [95% credible interval (CrI) 0·08-0·20], and 35 (95% CrI 12-145), respectively. German notification data underestimated STEC-associated HUS and STEC-GE incidences by factors of 1·8 and 32·3, respectively. Non-O157 STEC accounted for 81% of all STEC-GE, 51% of all bloody STEC-GE and 32% of all STEC-associated HUS cases. Non-O157 serogroups dominate incidence of STEC-GE and contribute significantly to STEC-associated HUS in Germany. This might apply to many other countries considering European surveillance data on HUS. Non-O157 STEC should be considered in parallel with STEC O157 when searching aetiology in patients with GE or HUS, and accounted for in modern surveillance systems.

We studied the prevalence of Helicobacter pylori virulence markers, e.g. cytotoxin associated gene (cagA), cagA promoter, vacuolating associated cytotoxin A (vacA) alleles induced by contact with epithelium (iceA type), and outer membrane protein Q (hopQ) in expatriates and compared them with those in local residents. Gastric biopsies were obtained at endoscopy for culture, histology and PCR for virulence marker and hopQ. Of 309 patients, 236 (76%) were males with a mean age of 45 years. A total of 102 patients were expatriates. hopQ type 1 was present in 98 (47%) local residents compared to 88 (86%) expatriates (P < 0·001), while hopQ type 2 was present in 176 (85%) local residents, compared to 60 (59%) expatriates (P < 0·001). H. pylori virulence marker cagA was positive in 97 (47%) local residents compared to 86 (84%) expatriates (P < 0·001) while cagA-P was positive in 72 (35%) local residents compared to 87 (85%) expatriates (P < 0·001). iceA type 1 was positive in 157 (76%) local residents compared to 45 (44%) expatriates (P < 0·001), while iceA type 2 was positive in 81 (39%) local residents compared to 86 (84%) expatriates (P < 0·001). Distribution of H. pylori cagA, cagA promoter, iceA and hopQ type in local residents and expatriates was different. H. pylori virulence markers were associated with severe pathology in expatriates.

We investigated the seasonality of age-specific tuberculosis (TB) in Japan. To allow the development of TB control strategies for different age groups we used a time-series analysis, including a spectral analysis and least squares method, to analyse the monthly age-specific numbers of newly registered cases of all forms of active TB in Japan from January 1998 to December 2013. The time-series data are reported in 10-year age groups: 0–9, 10–19, …, 70–79, and ⩾80 years. We defined the contribution ratio of the 1-year cycle, Q1, as the contribution of the amplitude of a 1-year cycle to the whole amplitude of the time-series data. The Q1 values in the age groups corresponding to adolescence and middle life (10–39 years) and old age (⩾70 years) were high. The peaks in the active TB epidemics for the ⩾70 years age group occurred in August and September, 1–2 months behind the peaks for the 10–39 years age group (June and July). An active TB epidemic might be attributable to travel by public transport and irregular employment in the 10–39 years age group and immune system suppression by low winter temperatures in the ⩾70 years age group.

West Nile virus (WNV) circulation dynamics in the context of the urban environment is not yet elucidated. In this perspective, three groups of eight rock pigeons (Columbia livia) were inoculated with three WNV lineage 1 strains isolated in Italy between 2009 and 2012. The pigeons did not develop any clinical signs consistent with WNV acute infection. All animals seroconverted and shed virus up to 15 days post-infection by the oral or cloacal routes. In all infected groups viraemia lasted for 4 days post-infection. No WNV-specific gross or histological lesions were found in infected birds compared to control birds and immunohistochemistry remained constantly negative from all tissues. The reservoir competence index was also assessed and it ranged between 0·11 and 0·14. This study demonstrates that pigeons are competent reservoir hosts for Italian WNV lineage 1 circulating strains thus potentially posing a risk to the public health system.

We investigated a nationwide outbreak of Salmonella Coeln in Norway, including 26 cases identified between 20 October 2013 and 4 January 2014. We performed a matched case-control study, environmental investigation and detailed traceback of food purchases to identify the source of the outbreak. In the case-control study, cases were found to be more likely than controls to have consumed a ready-to-eat salad mix (matched odds ratio 20, 95% confidence interval 2·7–∞). By traceback of purchases one brand of ready-to-eat salad was indicated, but all environmental samples were negative for Salmonella. This outbreak underlines that pre-washed and bagged salads carry a risk of infection despite thorough cleaning procedures by the importer. To further reduce the risk of infection by consumption of ready-to-eat salads product quality should be ensured by importers. Outbreaks linked to salads reinforce the importance of implementation of appropriate food safety management systems, including good practices in lettuce production.

Initial infection with the sentinel respiratory pathogen in children with cystic fibrosis (CF), Pseudomonas aeruginosa (Pa), is generally with environmental strains of this ubiquitous organism. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the associations between meteorological and geographical factors and risk of initial Pa acquisition in young children with CF. Using the U.S. Cystic Fibrosis Foundation Patient Registry from 2003 to 2009, 3463 patients met inclusion criteria, of which 48% (n = 1659) acquired Pa during follow-up. From multivariable Weibull regression, increased risk of Pa acquisition was associated with increasing temperature [hazard ratio (HR) per 1 °C: 1·13; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1·08–1·13], dew point (HR per 1 °C: 1·10, 95% CI 1·07–1·13), rainfall (HR per cm: 1·10, 95% CI 1·07–1·12), latitude (HR per 1 °C northing: 1·15, 95% CI 1·11–1·20), longitude (HR per 1 °C easting: 1·01, 95% CI 1·01–1·02) and elevation (HR per 100 m: 1·05, 95% CI 1·03–1·07). These results suggest that environmental factors may play a previously unrecognized role in the aetiology of initial Pa acquisition.

Historical survey data suggest that the seroprevalence of antibodies against Coxiella burnetii in the general population of The Netherlands decreased from more than 40% in 1983 to 2·4% in 2007, just before the start of the large 2007–2010 Q fever epidemic. To assess whether the sharp decline in seroprevalence was real, we performed a cross-sectional study using historical samples. We tested samples using a contemporary commercial indirect immunofluorescence assay. In plasma samples from the south of The Netherlands from 1987, we found an age- and sex-standardized seroprevalence of 14·4% (95% confidence interval 11·2–18·3). This was significantly lower than a 1983 estimate from the same area (62·5%), but significantly higher than 2008 (1·0%) and 2010 (2·3%) estimates from the same area. The study suggests that there was a steady and sharp decline in Q fever seroprevalence in the south of The Netherlands from 1987 to 2008. We assume that seroprevalence has decreased in other parts of The Netherlands as well and seroprevalence surveys in other European countries have shown a similar declining trend. Waning population immunity in The Netherlands may have contributed to the scale of the 2007–2010 Q fever epidemic. For a better understanding of the infection dynamics of Q fever, we advocate an international comparative study of the seroprevalence of C. burnetii.

This report summarizes epidemiological data on nephropathia epidemica (NE) in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia. NE cases identified in the period 1997–2013 were investigated in parallel with the hantavirus antigen prevalence in small rodents in the study area. A total of 13 930 NE cases were documented in all but one district of Tatarstan, with most cases located in the central and southeastern districts. The NE annual incidence rate exhibited a cyclical pattern, with the highest numbers of cases being registered once in every 3–5 years. The numbers of NE cases rose gradually from July to November, with the highest morbidity in adult males. The highest annual disease incidence rate, 64·4 cases/100 000 population, was observed in 1997, with a total of 2431 NE cases registered. NE cases were mostly associated with visiting forests and agricultural activities. The analysis revealed that the bank vole Myodes glareolus not only comprises the majority of the small rodent communities in the region, but also consistently displays the highest hantavirus prevalence compared to other small rodent species.

Children may be at higher risk for carriage of antimicrobial-resistant bacteria because of higher usage of antimicrobials. They also have higher rates of Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) infections than other population groups. Some infections, particularly in children, are asymptomatic, but still lead to the excretion of large numbers of bacteria and viruses that may cause clinical disease in other individuals. That is one reason why, in Lower Saxony as in other German federal states – asymptomatic carriers of STEC are excluded from nurseries and schools until three consecutive stool samples test negative in order to prevent secondary cases. The prevalence of children who are asymptomatic STEC carriers is unknown. But if it is high, this measure would have substantial socioeconomic effects on families. Infections with extended-spectrum β-lactamase-producing Enterobacteriaceae (ESBL-E) are an increasing problem for public health, especially for hospitals. However, there are no reliable estimates of the prevalence of asymptomatic ESBL-E carriers in Lower Saxony, as there is no mandatory requirement to report these carriers. In order to discuss the exclusion policies for children attending nurseries and ascertain a baseline of ESBL-E carriers, we conducted a cross-sectional study. The aim was to determine the prevalence of ESBL-E and STEC and identify risk factors for carriage in nursery children without diarrhoea (asymptomatic) aged 0–6 years in four selected districts in Northern Germany. During April–September 2014, we collected stool specimens with the support of voluntarily participating nurseries. We tested for STEC by PCR and for ESBL-E on chromogenic agar. Questionnaires answered by parents contained data on eating and drinking habits, outdoor activities, prior antibiotic treatment and animal contact for each participating child. We compared the epidemiological characteristics of ESBL-E carriers vs. non-carriers by using univariable analysis (P value, odds ratio and 95% confidence interval). We could not perform a statistical analysis for STEC carriers due to the low numbers of positive STEC specimens. Of 224 asymptomatic nursery children, we found a prevalence of 2·3% for ESBL-E carriage and 0·5% for STEC carriage. Asymptomatic ESBL-E carriers were more likely to have consumed raw milk, have had contact with pet rodents, or to have taken antibiotics during the preceding 6 months. We also found a high proportion of raw milk consumption (11%). We suggest that the low STEC prevalence in asymptomatic children supports the current practice of excluding STEC carriers from nurseries. The association between ESBL-E carriage and raw milk consumption and contact with pet rodents needs further investigation.