The COVID-19 pandemic and government responses led to a halt in economic activity. While this reduced pollution in urban areas, its effect on deforestation in areas outside of cities is unclear. Deforestation may have decreased due to the restrictions on economic activity, but, it may have increased due to the drying up of alternative income sources. We analyzed bi-weekly data on tropical forests worldwide in relation to the dates when different countries implemented lockdown restrictions. Our analysis found that while lockdowns did reduce mobility in forest municipalities, the average effect on deforestation was not significant. However, we did observe variations in the impact of lockdowns on deforestation based on the share of lockdown-vulnerable GDP and the level of government effectiveness. These results stand across tropical countries and within Colombia. These findings highlight the importance of alternative income sources and strong state capacity for effective policies aimed at reducing deforestation.

Bangladesh is one of the countries most vulnerable to climate change impacts such as extreme weather events, due to its low-lying topography, high population density and widespread poverty. In this paper, we report on the development and results of an agent-based model of the migration dynamics that may arise in Bangladesh as a result of climate change. The main modules are each calibrated with data on relevant indicators, such as the incidences of extreme poverty, socioeconomic vulnerability, demography, and historical drought, cyclone and flood patterns. The results suggest likely changes in population densities across Bangladesh due to migration from the drought-prone western districts and areas vulnerable to cyclones and floods in the south, towards northern and eastern districts. The model predicts between 3 and 10 million internal migrants over the next 40 years, depending on the severity of the hazards. Some associated policy considerations are also discussed.

Vitamin A enriched rice (Golden Rice) is a cost-efficient solution that can substantially reduce health costs. Despite Golden Rice being available since early 2000, this rice has not been introduced in any country. Governments must perceive additional costs that overcompensate the benefits of the technology to explain the delay in approval. We develop a real option model including irreversibility and uncertainty about perceived costs and arrival of new information to explain a delay in approval. The model has been applied to the case of India. Results show the annual perceived costs have to be at least US$199 million per year approximately for the last decade to explain the delay in approval of the technology. This is an indicator of the economic power of the opposition towards Golden Rice resulting in about 1.4 million life years lost over the past decade in India.

This paper examines the role of the financial sector in renewable energy (RE) development. Although RE can bring socio-economic and environmental benefits, its implementation faces a number of obstacles, especially in non-OECD countries. One of these obstacles is financing: underdeveloped financial sectors are unable to efficiently channel loans to RE producers. The influence of financial sector development on the use of renewable energy resources is confirmed in panel data estimations on up to 119 non-OECD countries for 1980–2006. Financial intermediation, in particular commercial banking, has a significant positive effect on the amount of RE produced, and the impact is especially large when we consider non-hydropower RE such as wind, solar, geothermal and biomass. There is also evidence that the development of the RE sector has picked up significantly in the period since the adoption of the Kyoto Protocol.

This paper aims to assess the effect of natural disasters closely related to climate change on migration rates in developing countries, observing how this effect varies according to the level of education. We investigate this relationship by using panel data that measure international migration from developing countries to the main OECD destination countries. Estimations are made with a pair-country fixed effects estimator. The results show that natural disasters are positively associated with emigration rates. Furthermore, we show that natural disasters may exacerbate the brain drain in developing countries when they are at their most vulnerable and need greater support from skilled workers. We also find that the effect of natural disasters on migration varies depending on the geographical location of countries, as well as according to the type of disaster.

This paper examines the complex relationship that exists between poverty and natural resource degradation in developing countries. The rural poor are often concentrated in fragile, or less favorable, environmental areas. Consequently, their livelihoods can be intimately dependent on natural resource use and ecosystem services. The relationship between poverty and natural resource degradation may depend on a complex range of choices and tradeoffs available to the poor, which in the absence of capital, labor, and land markets, is affected by their access to outside employment and any natural resource endowments. The paper develops a poverty–environment model to characterize some of these linkages, and concludes by discussing policy implications and avenues for further research.

This paper examines the impact of climate change on rich and poor countries across the world. We measure two indices of the relative impact of climate across countries, impact per capita, and impact per GDP. These measures sum market impacts across the climate-sensitive economic sectors of each country. Both indices reveal that climate change will have serious distributional impact across countries, grouped by income per capita. We predict that poor countries will suffer the bulk of the damages from climate change. Although adaptation, wealth, and technology may influence distributional consequences across countries, we argue that the primary reason that poor countries are so vulnerable is their location. Countries in the low latitudes start with very high temperatures. Further warming pushes these countries ever further away from optimal temperatures for climate-sensitive economic sectors.

We examine the impact of economic development and the role of political alignment on the fatalities and damages due to floods using state-level panel data for 19 Indian states over the period 1980–2011. The empirical results confirm that economic development leads to a decline in flood fatalities and damages due to floods across Indian states. This study also examines the role of politics in the prevention of flood fatalities. We find that both state election years and political alignment influence the extent of flood fatalities. The results suggest that not only economic development but also healthy political coordination between the central government and the states is essential to mitigate the impact of floods.

A structural model for green bonds is developed to explain the formation and dynamics of green bond prices and to address the issue of the so-called ‘greenium’, that is, the difference between the yields on a conventional bond and a green bond with the same characteristics. We provide answers to the following questions: What are the determinants of the green bond value? Do green bonds enhance the credit quality of the issuer? Are green bonds a relatively cheap tool to fund sustainable investments? We also study the effect of investors' environmental concern on portfolio allocation. Our results have direct policy implications and suggest that an improvement in credit quality could ultimately lead to a lower cost of capital for green bond issuers and that governmental tax-based incentives and an increase in investors' green awareness play a significant role in scaling up the green bonds market.

Traditional cost-benefit analyses (CBAs) of flood risk reduction measures usually ignore distributions of damages over populations, which disadvantages the poor. Instead, a CBA based on social welfare includes individual social vulnerability through relative impacts on consumption. If vulnerabilities are high, floods are catastrophic and cause poverty, migration or indirect deaths, and risk reductions have high social welfare values. For non-catastrophic risks, social welfare values of risks are relatively higher for vulnerable low-income households. We present a framework to integrate social vulnerability into CBAs, and show how financial protection reduces social flood vulnerability and provides welfare benefits. A case study illustrates that traditional CBAs underestimate the social welfare value of flood risk reduction measures, up to a factor of 30. Data on financial protection is however scarce, which hampers estimation of the social welfare value in practice. A solution is to increase financial protection of individuals, in addition to offering physical flood protection.