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A credit default swap (CDS) is an exchange of premium payments for a compensation for the occurrence of a credit event. Counterparty risks refer to defaults of parties holding CDS contracts. In this paper we develop a valuation/pricing model for a CDS subject to counterparty risks. Using the Cox–Ingersoll–Ross (CIR) model for interest rate and first arrival times of Poisson processes with variable intensities for the occurrences of credit default and counterparty defaults, we derive a mathematical formulation and make a full theoretical investigation. In addition, we develop a full theory for the corresponding infinite horizon problem and establish its connection with the asymptotic long expiry behaviour of finite horizon problem. Furthermore, we establish a connection between two major frameworks for default times: the structure model approach and the intensity model approach. We show that a solution of the structure model can be obtained as the limit of a sequence of solutions of intensity models. Regarded as an important theoretical development, we remove a constraint typically imposed on the parameters of the CIR model; that is, the well-posedness (existence, uniqueness and continuous dependence of parameters) of the mathematical model holds for any empirically calibrated parameters for the CIR model.
We investigate the supports of extremal martingale measures with prespecified marginals in a two-period setting. First, we establish in full generality the equivalence between the extremality of a given measure Q and the denseness in
of a suitable linear subspace, which can be seen in a financial context as the set of all semistatic trading strategies. Moreover, when the supports of both marginals are countable, we focus on the slightly stronger notion of weak exact predictable representation property (WEP) and provide two combinatorial sufficient conditions, called the ‘2-link property’ and ‘full erasability’, on how the points in the supports are linked to each other for granting extremality. When the support of the first marginal is a finite set, we give a necessary and sufficient condition for the WEP to hold in terms of the new concepts of 2-net and deadlock. Finally, we study the relation between cycles and extremality.
We consider the problem of pricing modern guarantee concepts in unit-linked life insurance, where the guaranteed amount grows contingent on the performance of an investment fund that acts simultaneously as the underlying security and the replicating portfolio. Using the Martingale Method, this nonstandard pricing problem can be transformed into a fixed-point problem, whose solution requires the evaluation of conditional expectations of highly path-dependent payoffs. By adapting the least-squares Monte Carlo method for American option pricing problems, we develop a new numerical approach to approximate the value of contingent guarantees and prove its convergence. Our valuation procedure can be applied to large-scale pricing problems, for which existing methods are infeasible, and leads to significant improvements in performance.
We analyse an optimal portfolio and consumption problem with stochastic factor and delay over a finite time horizon. The financial market includes a risk-free asset, a risky asset and a stochastic factor. The price process of the risky asset is modelled as a stochastic differential delay equation whose coefficients vary according to the stochastic factor; the drift also depends on its historical performance. Employing the stochastic dynamic programming approach, we establish the associated Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation. Then we solve the optimal investment and consumption strategies for the power utility function. We also consider a special case in which the price process of the stochastic factor degenerates into a Cox–Ingersoll–Ross model. Finally, the effects of the delay variable on the optimal strategies are discussed and some numerical examples are presented to illustrate the results.
In this paper we study a finite-fuel two-dimensional degenerate singular stochastic control problem under regime switching motivated by the optimal irreversible extraction problem of an exhaustible commodity. A company extracts a natural resource from a reserve with finite capacity and sells it in the market at a spot price that evolves according to a Brownian motion with volatility modulated by a two-state Markov chain. In this setting, the company aims at finding the extraction rule that maximizes its expected discounted cash flow, net of the costs of extraction and maintenance of the reserve. We provide expressions for both the value function and the optimal control. On the one hand, if the running cost for the maintenance of the reserve is a convex function of the reserve level, the optimal extraction rule prescribes a Skorokhod reflection of the (optimally) controlled state process at a certain state and price-dependent threshold. On the other hand, in the presence of a concave running cost function, it is optimal to instantaneously deplete the reserve at the time at which the commodity's price exceeds an endogenously determined critical level. In both cases, the threshold triggering the optimal control is given in terms of the optimal stopping boundary of an auxiliary family of perpetual optimal selling problems with regime switching.
Motivated by a common mathematical finance topic, we discuss the reciprocal of the exit time from a cone of planar Brownian motion which also corresponds to the exponential functional of Brownian motion in the framework of planar Brownian motion. We prove a conjecture of Vakeroudis and Yor (2012) concerning infinite divisibility properties of this random variable and present a novel simple proof of the result of DeBlassie (1987), (1988) concerning the asymptotic behavior of the distribution of the Bessel clock appearing in the skew-product representation of planar Brownian motion, as t→∞. We use the results of the windings approach in order to obtain results for quantities associated to the pricing of Asian options.
The geometric structure of the nonparametric statistical model of all positive densities connected by an open exponential arc and its intimate relation to Orlicz spaces give new insights to well-known financial objects which arise in exponential utility maximization problems.
This paper is devoted to the American option pricing problem governed by the Black-Scholes equation. The existence of an optimal exercise policy makes the problem a free boundary value problem of a parabolic equation on an unbounded domain. The optimal exercise boundary satisfies a nonlinear Volterra integral equation and is solved by a high-order collocation method based on graded meshes. This free boundary is then deformed to a fixed boundary by the front-fixing transformation. The boundary condition at infinity (due to the fact that the underlying asset's price could be arbitrarily large in theory), is treated by the perfectly matched layer technique. Finally, the resulting initial-boundary value problems for the option price and some of the Greeks on a bounded rectangular space-time domain are solved by a finite element method. In particular, for Delta, one of the Greeks, we propose a discontinuous Galerkin method to treat the discontinuity in its initial condition. Convergence results for these two methods are analyzed and several numerical simulations are provided to verify these theoretical results.
The time average of geometric Brownian motion plays a crucial role in the pricing of Asian options in mathematical finance. In this paper we consider the asymptotics of the discrete-time average of a geometric Brownian motion sampled on uniformly spaced times in the limit of a very large number of averaging time steps. We derive almost sure limit, fluctuations, large deviations, and also the asymptotics of the moment generating function of the average. Based on these results, we derive the asymptotics for the price of Asian options with discrete-time averaging in the Black–Scholes model, with both fixed and floating strike.
We provide an elementary method for exploring pricing problems of one spread options within a fractional Wick–Itô–Skorohod integral framework. Its underlying assets come from two different interactive markets that are modelled by two mixed fractional Black–Scholes models with Hurst parameters,
. Pricing formulae of these options with respect to strike price
are given, and their application to the real market is examined.
The valuation of perpetual timer options under the Hull–White stochastic volatility model is discussed here. By exploring the connection between the Hull–White model and the Bessel process and using time-change techniques, the triple joint distribution for the instantaneous volatility, the cumulative reciprocal volatility and the cumulative realized variance is obtained. An explicit analytical solution for the price of perpetual timer call options is derived as a Black–Scholes–Merton-type formula.
This paper pioneers a Freidlin–Wentzell approach to stochastic impulse control of exchange rates when the central bank desires to maintain a target zone. Pressure to stimulate the economy forces the bank to implement diffusion monetary policy involving Freidlin–Wentzell perturbations indexed by a parameter ε∈ [0,1]. If ε=0, the policy keeps exchange rates in the target zone for all times t≥0. When ε>0, exchange rates continually exit the target zone almost surely, triggering central bank interventions which force currencies back into the zone or abandonment of all targets. Interventions and target zone deviations are costly, motivating the bank to minimize these joint costs for any ε∈ [0,1]. We prove convergence of the value functions as ε→0 achieving a value function approximation for small ε. Via sample path analysis and cost function bounds, intervention followed by target zone abandonment emerges as the optimal policy.
This paper uses recent results on continuous-time finite-horizon optimal switching problems with negative switching costs to prove the existence of a saddle point in an optimal stopping (Dynkin) game. Sufficient conditions for the game's value to be continuous with respect to the time horizon are obtained using recent results on norm estimates for doubly reflected backward stochastic differential equations. This theory is then demonstrated numerically for the special cases of cancellable call and put options in a Black‒Scholes market.
Following the approach of standard filtering theory, we analyse investor valuation of firms, when these are modelled as geometric-Brownian state processes that are privately and partially observed, at random (Poisson) times, by agents. Tasked with disclosing forecast values, agents are able purposefully to withhold their observations; explicit filtering formulae are derived for downgrading the valuations in the absence of disclosures. The analysis is conducted for both a solitary firm and m co-dependent firms.
We present an asymptotically optimal importance sampling for Monte Carlo simulation of the Laplace transform of exponential Brownian functionals which plays a prominent role in many disciplines. To this end we utilize the theory of large deviations to reduce finding an asymptotically optimal importance sampling measure to solving a calculus of variations problem. Closed-form solutions are obtained. In addition we also present a path to the test of regularity of optimal drift which is an issue in implementing the proposed method. The performance analysis of the method is provided through the Dothan bond pricing model.
We study the optimal financing and dividend distribution problem with restricted dividend rates in a diffusion type surplus model, where the drift and volatility coefficients are general functions of the level of surplus and the external environment regime. The environment regime is modeled by a Markov process. Both capital injection and dividend payments incur expenses. The objective is to maximize the expectation of the total discounted dividends minus the total cost of the capital injection. We prove that it is optimal to inject capital only when the surplus tends to fall below 0 and to pay out dividends at the maximal rate when the surplus is at or above the threshold, dependent on the environment regime.
In this paper we connect Archimedean survival processes (ASPs) with the theory of Markov copulas. ASPs were introduced by Hoyle and Mengütürk (2013) to model the realized variance of two assets. We present some new properties of ASPs related to their dependency structure. We study weak and strong Markovian consistency properties of ASPs. An ASP is weak Markovian consistent, but generally not strong Markovian consistent. Our results contain necessary and sufficient conditions for an ASP to be strong Markovian consistent. These properties are closely related to the concept of Markov copulas, which is very useful in modelling different dependence phenomena. At the end we present possible applications.
Optimal control problems of stochastic switching type appear frequently when making decisions under uncertainty and are notoriously challenging from a computational viewpoint. Although numerous approaches have been suggested in the literature to tackle them, typical real-world applications are inherently high dimensional and usually drive common algorithms to their computational limits. Furthermore, even when numerical approximations of the optimal strategy are obtained, practitioners must apply time-consuming and unreliable Monte Carlo simulations to assess their quality. In this paper, we show how one can overcome both difficulties for a specific class of discrete-time stochastic control problems. A simple and efficient algorithm which yields approximate numerical solutions is presented and methods to perform diagnostics are provided.
The maximal return and optimal leverage of a constant proportion debt obligation with finite termination and two boundaries are analysed by numerically solving Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equations. We discuss the probabilities of the asset value reaching the upper or lower bound under the optimal control and the optimal control problem with a time-varying boundary. Furthermore, we also analyse the relationship between the optimal return, the optimal policy and different parameters.