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The present study aimed to model obesity trends and future obesity-related disease for nine countries in the Middle East; in addition, to explore how hypothetical reductions in population obesity levels could ameliorate anticipated disease burdens.
A regression analysis of cross-sectional data v. BMI showed age- and sex-specific BMI trends, which fed into a micro simulation with a million Monte Carlo trials for each country. We also examined two alternative scenarios where population BMI was reduced by 1 % and 5 %.
Statistical modelling of obesity trends was carried out in nine Middle East countries (Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Saudi Arabia and Turkey).
BMI data along with disease incidence, mortality and survival data from national and sub-national data sets were used for the modelling process.
High rates of overweight and obesity increased in both men and women in most countries. The burden of incident type 2 diabetes, CHD and stroke would be moderated with even small reductions in obesity levels.
Obesity is a growing problem in the Middle East which requires government action on the primary prevention of obesity. The present results are important for policy makers to know the effectiveness of obesity interventions on future disease burden.
Along with other countries having high and low-to-middle income, Mexico has experienced a substantial change in obesity rates. This rapid growth in obesity prevalence has led to high rates of obesity-related diseases and associated health-care costs.
Micro-simulation is used to project future BMI trends. Additionally thirteen BMI-related diseases and health-care costs are estimated. The results are simulated for three hypothetical scenarios: no BMI reduction and BMI reductions of 1 % and 5 % across the population.
Mexican Health and Nutrition Surveys 1999 and 2000, and Mexican National Health and Nutrition Survey 2006.
In 2010, 32 % of men and 26 % of women were normal weight. By 2050, the proportion of normal weight will decrease to 12 % and 9 % for males and females respectively, and more people will be obese than overweight. It is projected that by 2050 there will be 12 million cumulative incidence cases of diabetes and 8 million cumulative incidence cases of heart disease alone. For the thirteen diseases considered, costs of $US 806 million are estimated for 2010, projected to increase to $US 1·2 billion and $US 1·7 billion in 2030 and 2050 respectively. A 1 % reduction in BMI prevalence could save $US 43 million in health-care costs in 2030 and $US 85 million in 2050.
Obesity rates are leading to a large health and economic burden. The projected numbers are high and Mexico should implement strong action to tackle obesity. Results presented here will be very helpful in planning and implementing policy interventions.
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