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Cyber Operational Risk: Cyber risk is routinely cited as one of the most important sources of operational risks facing organisations today, in various publications and surveys. Further, in recent years, cyber risk has entered the public conscience through highly publicised events involving affected UK organisations such as TalkTalk, Morrisons and the NHS. Regulators and legislators are increasing their focus on this topic, with General Data Protection Regulation (“GDPR”) a notable example of this. Risk actuaries and other risk management professionals at insurance companies therefore need to have a robust assessment of the potential losses stemming from cyber risk that their organisations may face. They should be able to do this as part of an overall risk management framework and be able to demonstrate this to stakeholders such as regulators and shareholders. Given that cyber risks are still very much new territory for insurers and there is no commonly accepted practice, this paper describes a proposed framework in which to perform such an assessment. As part of this, we leverage two existing frameworks – the Chief Risk Officer (“CRO”) Forum cyber incident taxonomy, and the National Institute of Standards and Technology (“NIST”) framework – to describe the taxonomy of a cyber incident, and the relevant cyber security and risk mitigation items for the incident in question, respectively.Summary of Results: Three detailed scenarios have been investigated by the working party:
∙Employee leaks data at a general (non-life) insurer: Internal attack through social engineering, causing large compensation costs and regulatory fines, driving a 1 in 200 loss of £210.5m (c. 2% of annual revenue).
∙Cyber extortion at a life insurer: External attack through social engineering, causing large business interruption and reputational damage, driving a 1 in 200 loss of £179.5m (c. 6% of annual revenue).
∙Motor insurer telematics device hack: External attack through software vulnerabilities, causing large remediation / device replacement costs, driving a 1 in 200 loss of £70.0m (c. 18% of annual revenue).
Limitations: The following sets out key limitations of the work set out in this paper:
∙While the presented scenarios are deemed material at this point in time, the threat landscape moves fast and could render specific narratives and calibrations obsolete within a short-time frame.
∙There is a lack of historical data to base certain scenarios on and therefore a high level of subjectivity is used to calibrate them.
∙No attempt has been made to make an allowance for seasonality of renewals (a cyber event coinciding with peak renewal season could exacerbate cost impacts)
∙No consideration has been given to the impact of the event on the share price of the company.
∙Correlation with other risk types has not been explicitly considered.
Conclusions: Cyber risk is a very real threat and should not be ignored or treated lightly in operational risk frameworks, as it has the potential to threaten the ongoing viability of an organisation. Risk managers and capital actuaries should be aware of the various sources of cyber risk and the potential impacts to ensure that the business is sufficiently prepared for such an event. When it comes to quantifying the impact of cyber risk on the operations of an insurer there are significant challenges. Not least that the threat landscape is ever changing and there is a lack of historical experience to base assumptions off. Given this uncertainty, this paper sets out a framework upon which readers can bring consistency to the way scenarios are developed over time. It provides a common taxonomy to ensure that key aspects of cyber risk are considered and sets out examples of how to implement the framework. It is critical that insurers endeavour to understand cyber risk better and look to refine assumptions over time as new information is received. In addition to ensuring that sufficient capital is being held for key operational risks, the investment in understanding cyber risk now will help to educate senior management and could have benefits through influencing internal cyber security capabilities.
Due to the limited availability of selective herbicides to control Sumatran fleabane after soybean emergence, it is essential to develop new options that provide effective control prior to planting. A new herbicide formulation containing diclosulam+halauxifen-methyl was evaluated for effectiveness at two Sumatran fleabane plant heights (5 to 10 cm, and 10 to 50 cm) and for soybean selectivity when applied at 7 or 3 d before planting. Combined results from the two sites showed that diclosulam+halauxifen, applied either alone or in a tank mixture with glyphosate, and the tank mixture of diclosulam+2,4-D amine+glyphosate are effective at all rates tested to control Sumatran fleabane in preplant applications. Crop response was observed with applications 7 days before planting at only one of the sites. A rate-dependent crop response was observed for pre-plant applications performed 3 days before soybean planting. However, crop yield was not significantly affected for either timing across all rates. All rates tested of diclosulam+halauxifen in this study were considered safe to soybean.
An MP tandem Van de Graaff accelerator at the University of Rochester has been employed since May 1977 to detect 14C in various terrestrial samples. The carbon sample sizes required are 1mg or less. Dating accuracies based on reproducibility now approach (± 80 years). Measurements have been made on 1850 wood, Australian sucrose, a carbon sample from Mt Shasta, a baby woolly mammoth, and an Egyptian bull mummy wrapping.
The Medium-l Program of the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) instrument on board SOHO provides continuous observations of oscillation modes of angular degree, l, from 0 to ∼ 300. The initial results show that the noise in the Medium-l oscillation power spectrum is substantially lower than in ground-based measurements. This enables us to detect lower amplitude modes and, thus, to extend the range of measured mode frequencies. The MDI observations also reveal the asymmetry of oscillation spectral lines. The line asymmetries agree with the theory of mode excitation by acoustic sources localized in the upper convective boundary layer. The sound-speed profile inferred from the mean frequencies gives evidence for a sharp variation at the edge of the energy-generating core. In a thin layer just beneath the convection zone, helium appears to be less abundant than predicted by theory. Inverting the multiplet frequency splittings from MDI, we detect significant rotational shear in this thin layer.
The present Report covers the period 1982-1984. As with previous Reports, it has not been possible to cover all publications or even every field of research. Some subsections of this Report, the Magellanic Clouds for example, report a body of work as extensive as that in some commissions.
(1) From new radial velocities of 67 H II regions in M 31, rotational velocities and a mass model of M 31 are derived, and compared with the rotation curve and Schmidt mass model of our galaxy. (2) It is shown that in M 31 the distribution of H II regions as identified by Baade agrees with the distribution of neutral hydrogen determined from 21-cm observations. Also, the rotation curve derived from the H II velocities outside of the nucleus is similar to the rotation curve derived from 21-cm H I observations.
That learning and memory deficits persist many years following mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI) is controversial due to inconsistent objective evidence supporting subjective complaints. Our prior work demonstrated significant reductions in performance on the initial trial of a verbal learning task and overall slower rate of learning in well-motivated mTBI participants relative to demographically matched controls. In our previous work, we speculated that differences in strategy use could explain the differences in rate of learning. The current study serves to test this hypothesis by examining strategy use on the California Verbal Learning Test-Second Edition. Our present findings support the primary hypothesis that mTBI participants under-utilize semantic clustering strategies during list-learning relative to control participants. Despite achieving comparable total learning scores, we posit that the persisting learning and memory difficulties reported by some mTBI patients may be related to reduced usage of efficient internally driven strategies that facilitate learning. Given that strategy training has demonstrated improvements in learning and memory in educational and occupational settings, we offer that these findings have translational value in offering an additional approach in remediation of learning and memory complaints reported by some following mTBI. (JINS, 2011, 17, 709–719)
A report is given on molecular carbon research in Los Angeles, starting with review of the molecular precursor approach to carbon materials.1 Regarding larger molecules, mixtures of carbon molecules, Cn, are extracted2 in 25–40 percent yield from graphite evaporated under helium. Gram quantities of the mixture are then separated into pure fractions – C60, C70, C76/C78, C84, and higher (n > 88),3,4 and characterized by mass spectrometry, liquid chromatography, and 13CNMR spectroscopy. Examination of the spectroscopic and photophysical5 properties of the molecules, with particular focus on C60 in solution, reveals: (i) the first transitions appear at high energy, are electronically forbidden (in C60, the homo-lumo hu - t1u transitions), and exhibit resolved vibronic structure; (ii) the spectra sharpen in cryogenic media, allowing vibronic assignment; and (iii) relaxation occurs with near-unity quantum yield to a long-lived triplet, which also transfers energy efficiently to acceptors including O2.
Gallium Nitride films were grown on (111) Gallium Arsenide substrates using reactive rf magnetron sputtering. Despite a 20% lattice mismatch and different crystal structure, wurtzite GaN films grew epitaxially in basal orientation on (111) GaAs substrates. Heteroepitaxy was observed for growth temperatures between 550–600°C. X-ray diffraction patterns revealed (0002) GaN peak with a full-width-half-maximum (FWHM) as narrow as 0.17°. Possible surface reconstructions to explain the epitaxial growth are presented.
Thin films of diamond-like amorphous carbon were prepared by dc magnetron sputtering. A systematic variation in the physical properties of the films (mass density and electrical resistivity) was found as a function of sputtering power density. Chemical bonding and microstructure of the carbon thin films were investigated using electron energy loss spectroscopy (EELS) and Raman spectroscopy. Films grown at a lower power density were found to have more sp3 -bonded atomic sites and larger graphite microcrystals than films produced at higher sputtering power densities.
Gallium nitride is one of the most promising materials for ultraviolet and blue light-emitting diodes and lasers. Both Molecular Beam Epitaxy (MBE) and Metal-Organic Chemical Vapor Deposition (MOCVD) have recently made strong progress in fabricating high-quality epitaxial GaN thin films. In this paper, we review materials-related issues involved in MBE growth. We show that a strong understanding of the unique meta-stable growth process allows us to correctly predict the optimum conditions for epitaxial GaN growth. The resulting structural, electronic and optical properties of the GaN films are described in detail.
We have used high-dose metal ion implantation to ‘fine tune’ the composition of Y-Ba- Cu-O thin films. The films were prepared by either of two rf sputtering systems. One system uses three modified Varian S-guns capable of sputtering various metal powder targets; the other uses reactive rf magnetron sputtering from a single mixed-oxide stoichiometric solid target. Film thickness was typically in the range 2000–5000 A. Substrates of magnesium oxide, zirconia-buffered silicon, and strontium titanate have been used. Ion implantation was carried out using a metal vapor vacuum arc (MEVVA) high current metal ion source. Beam energy was 100–200 keV, average beam current about 1 mA, and dose up to about 1017 ions/cm2. Samples were annealed at 800 – 900°C in wet oxygen. Film composition was determined using Rutherford Backscattering Spectrometry (RBS), and the resistivity versus temperature curves were obtained using a four-point probe method. We find that the zero-resistance temperature can be greatly increased after implantation and reannealing, and that the ion beam modification technique described here provides a powerful means for optimizing the thin film superconducting properties.
The effect of 647nm Kr-ion laser and 514.5 nm Ar-ion irradiation on 1 and 7 μm diameter regions, respectively, of (In43Sb57)87 Ge13 thin alloy films was determined. Laser irradiation times of 50ns - 20μs produce different reflectivity states. An amorphous state of increased reflectivity with respect to the as-deposited amorphous state was produced only with the smaller beam after short pulse (∼100ns to ∼500ns) laser irradiation. Slightly longer pulses caused formation of surface corrugations. The corrugation morphology occurred in the nanosecond regime both in air and vacuum. Further laser annealing caused crystallization and decreased reflectivity. The crystallization microstructures were random cellular for the irradiation in air. Irradiation in vacuum produced three, distinct concentric structures.
Thin films of tin-doped indium oxide are widely used for transparent conductors. One application of ln203:Sn (ITO) is transparent contacts for electrochromic electrodes. Optical design of electrochromic devices requires knowledge of the optical constants for each layer from the near ultraviolet and visible to the mid infrared. Determination of the optical constants of the electrochromic layer cannot be made in isolation; a complete device or at least a half-cell including a layer of ITO is required to change the optical state of the electrochromic material. Measurements on ITO were made using variable-angle spectral ellipsometry, and spectral transmittance and reflectance. A series of structural models were fit to this data. The problem is complicated because of inhomogeneity in the films, variability in the manufacturing process, and sensitivity to environmental conditions. The spectral dependency was modeled by a single Lorentz oscillator and a Drude free-electron component. This data was then used as the basis for a model to extract the optical constants for a tungsten oxide electrochromic film.
This study analyzes the impact of most common impurities and dopants on the c lattice parameter for thin films of Gallium Nitride (GaN) deposited on basal plane sapphire. Both Mg (∼1017 cm-3) and Zn (∼3 × 1020 cm-3) doping were found to expand the c lattice parameter as much as +0.38% and +0.62%, respectively. On the contrary, Oxygen up to concentrations 9 1021 cm-3 is shown to replace N in GaN thin films reducing the c parameter only by a small amount. Incorporation of Si leads to a large decrease of the c parameter which can not be attributed to the different size of Ga and Si atom. It is suggested that doping alters the film stoichiometry by a predicted Fermi level dependence of defect formation energies. The impact of stoichiometry on c lattice parameter and the effect of hydrostatic strain on resistivity in undoped and doped GaN is discussed.