Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) asymptomatic cases are hard to identify, impeding transmissibility estimation. The value of COVID-19 transmissibility is worth further elucidation for key assumptions in further modelling studies. Through a population-based surveillance network, we collected data on 1342 confirmed cases with a 90-days follow-up for all asymptomatic cases. An age-stratified compartmental model containing contact information was built to estimate the transmissibility of symptomatic and asymptomatic COVID-19 cases. The difference in transmissibility of a symptomatic and asymptomatic case depended on age and was most distinct for the middle-age groups. The asymptomatic cases had a 66.7% lower transmissibility rate than symptomatic cases, and 74.1% (95% CI 65.9–80.7) of all asymptomatic cases were missed in detection. The average proportion of asymptomatic cases was 28.2% (95% CI 23.0–34.6). Simulation demonstrated that the burden of asymptomatic transmission increased as the epidemic continued and could potentially dominate total transmission. The transmissibility of asymptomatic COVID-19 cases is high and asymptomatic COVID-19 cases play a significant role in outbreaks.

Customer churn, which insurance companies use to describe the non-renewal of existing customers, is a widespread and expensive problem in general insurance, particularly because contracts are usually short-term and are renewed periodically. Traditionally, customer churn analyses have employed models which utilise only a binary outcome (churn or not churn) in one period. However, real business relationships are multi-period, and policyholders may reside and transition between a wider range of states beyond that of the simply churn/not churn throughout this relationship. To better encapsulate the richness of policyholder behaviours through time, we propose multi-state customer churn analysis, which aims to model behaviour over a larger number of states (defined by different combinations of insurance coverage taken) and across multiple periods (thereby making use of readily available longitudinal data). Using multinomial logistic regression (MLR) with a second-order Markov assumption, we demonstrate how multi-state customer churn analysis offers deeper insights into how a policyholder’s transition history is associated with their decision making, whether that be to retain the current set of policies, churn, or add/drop a coverage. Applying this model to commercial insurance data from the Wisconsin Local Government Property Insurance Fund, we illustrate how transition probabilities between states are affected by differing sets of explanatory variables and that a multi-state analysis can potentially offer stronger predictive performance and more accurate calculations of customer lifetime value (say), compared to the traditional customer churn analysis techniques.

Hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) is a severe and life-threatening complication, characterised by multi-organ failure and high short-term mortality. However, there is limited information on the impact of various comorbidities on HBV-ACLF in a large population. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between comorbidities, complications and mortality. In this retrospective observational study, we identified 2166 cases of HBV-ACLF hospitalised from January 2010 to March 2018. Demographic data from the patients, medical history, treatment, laboratory indices, comorbidities and complications were collected. The mortality rate in our study group was 47.37%. Type 2 diabetes mellitus was the most common comorbidity, followed by alcoholic liver disease. Spontaneous bacterial peritonitis, pneumonia and hepatic encephalopathy (HE) were common in these patients. Diabetes mellitus and hyperthyroidism are risk factors for death within 90 days, together with gastrointestinal bleeding and HE at admission, HE and hepatorenal syndrome during hospitalisation. Knowledge of risk factors can help identify HBV-ACLF patients with a poor prognosis for HBV-ACLF with comorbidities and complications.

Pregnancy is a complex biological process. The establishment and maintenance of foetal–maternal interface are pivotal events. Decidual immune cells and inflammatory cytokines play indispensable roles in the foetal–maternal interface. The disfunction of decidual immune cells leads to adverse pregnancy outcome. Tumour necrosis factor (TNF)-α, a common inflammatory cytokine, has critical roles in different stages of normal pregnancy process. However, the relationship between the disorder of TNF-α and adverse pregnancy outcomes, including preeclampsia (PE), intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR), spontaneous abortion (SA), preterm birth and so on, is still indefinite. In this review, we thoroughly reviewed the effect of TNF-α disorder on pathological conditions. Moreover, we summarized the reports about the adverse pregnancy outcomes (PE, IUGR, SA and preterm birth) of using anti-TNF-α drugs (infliximab, etanercept and adalimumab, certolizumab and golimumab) currently in the clinical studies. Overall, IUGR, SA and preterm birth are the most common adverse pregnancy outcomes of anti-TNF-α drugs. Our review may provide insight for the immunological treatment of pregnancy-related complication, and help practitioners make informed decisions based on the current evidences.

The $\chi $ -stability index $\mathrm {es}_{\chi }(G)$ of a graph G is the minimum number of its edges whose removal results in a graph with chromatic number smaller than that of G. We consider three open problems from Akbari et al. [‘Nordhaus–Gaddum and other bounds for the chromatic edge-stability number’, European J. Combin.84 (2020), Article no. 103042]. We show by examples that a known characterisation of k-regular ( $k\le 5$ ) graphs G with $\mathrm {es}_{\chi }(G) = 1$ does not extend to $k\ge 6$ , and we characterise graphs G with $\chi (G)=3$ for which $\mathrm { es}_{\chi }(G)+\mathrm {es}_{\chi }(\overline {G}) = 2$ . We derive necessary conditions on graphs G which attain a known upper bound on $\mathrm { es}_{\chi }(G)$ in terms of the order and the chromatic number of G and show that the conditions are sufficient when $n\equiv 2 \pmod 3$ and $\chi (G)=3$ .

Routine coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) screening found 1 asymptomatic COVID-19 patient. An emergency sampling team was organized consisting of 1200 health-care workers, and a total of 3.2228 million COVID-19 samples had been collected and detected. This study summarizes the on-site management experience in large-scale COVID-19 nucleic acid testing from various aspects: staff preparation, materials preparation, site layout, logistics support, and information system support. Suggestions are put forward for the deficiencies and parts needing improvement. Such deficiencies included some sampling sites were not properly chosen, different areas were unclearly marked off from each other, and some site moving lines were confounding; how to communicate with the street service workers who had little professional knowledge on the epidemic spread or the working principles of the workflow and site layout; and the way to resolve conflicts on site.

Athetis lepigone Möschler (Lepidoptera, Noctuidae) is a common maize pest in Europe and Asia. However, there is no long-term effective management strategy is available yet to suppress its population. Adults rely heavily on olfactory cues to locate their optimal host plants and oviposition sites. Pheromone-binding proteins (PBPs) are believed to be responsible for recognizing and transporting different odorant molecules to interact with receptor membrane proteins. In this study, the ligand-binding specificities of two AlepPBPs (AlepPBP2 and AlepPBP3) for sex pheromone components and host plant (maize) volatiles were measured by fluorescence ligand-binding assay. The results demonstrated that AlepPBP2 had a high affinity with two pheromones [(Z)-7-dodecenyl acetate, Ki = 1.11 ± 0.1 μM, (Z)-9-tetradecenyl acetate, Ki = 1.32 ± 0.15 μM] and ten plant volatiles, including (-)-limonene, α-pinene, myrcene, linalool, benzaldehyde, nonanal, 2-hexanone, 3-hexanone, 2-heptanone and 6-methyl-5-hepten-2-one. In contrast, we found that none of these chemicals could bind to AlepPBP3. Our results clearly show no significant differences in the functional characterization of the binding properties between AlepPBP2 and AlepPBP3 to sex pheromones and host plant volatiles. Furthermore, molecular docking was employed for further detail on some crucial amino acid residues involved in the ligand-binding of AlepPBP2. These findings will provide valuable information about the potential protein binding sites necessary for protein-ligand interactions which appear as attractive targets for the development of novel technologies and management strategies for insect pests.

Interstitial cells of Cajal (ICC) play a vital role in the gastrointestinal motility. However, information on ICC in lower vertebrates is rare. Here, ICC and ICC-like features of the gastric wall in the bullfrog (Rana catesbeiana) were observed by light microscopy and transmission electron microscopy. The lengths and distances of the ICC/ICC-like features were measured by morphometric analysis. The gastric wall contained mucosa, submucosa, tunica muscularis, and serosa. The gastric glands contained mucous cells and oxynticopeptic cells. The ICC with 1–3 processes were located among smooth muscle cells (SMC) of the tunica muscularis. Moreover, the ICC-like features were observed among oxynticopeptic cells of the mucosa. The processes of ICC established direct contacts with SMC. Also, the gap junctions were observed between the processes of ICC and nerve fiber bundles in the tunica muscularis. The multivesicular bodies, including shedding exosomes, were frequently observed between ICC and SMC. In addition, ICC-like features and their processes were observed in close proximity to oxynticopeptic cells and blood vessels. Our findings illustrated that ICC are present in the gastric tunica muscularis, and ICC-like features were in the mucosal lamina propria of the gastric wall of R. catesbeiana. These histological evidences supported the notion that ICC are implicated in gastric motility.

Diarrhoea caused by pathogens such as enterotoxigenic E. coli (ETEC) is a serious threat to the health of young animals and human infants. Here, we investigated the protective effect of fructo-oligosaccharides (FOS) on the intestinal epithelium with ETEC challenge in a weaned piglet model. Twenty-four weaned piglets were randomly divided into three groups: (1) non-ETEC-challenged control (CON); (2) ETEC-challenged control (ECON); and (3) ETEC challenge + 2·5 g/kg FOS (EFOS). On day 19, the CON pigs were orally infused with sterile culture, while the ECON and EFOS pigs were orally infused with active ETEC (2·5 × 109 colony-forming units). On day 21, pigs were slaughtered to collect venous blood and small intestine. Result showed that the pre-treatment of FOS improved the antioxidant capacity and the integrity of intestinal barrier in the ETEC-challenged pigs without affecting their growth performance. Specifically, compared with ECON pigs, the level of GSH peroxidase and catalase in the plasma and intestinal mucosa of EFOS pigs was increased (P < 0·05), and the intestinal barrier marked by zonula occluden-1 and plasmatic diamine oxidase was also improved in EFOS pigs. A lower level (P < 0·05) of inflammatory cytokines in the intestinal mucosa of EFOS pigs might be involved in the inhibition of TLR4/MYD88/NF-κB pathway. The apoptosis of jejunal cells in EFOS pigs was also lower than that in ECON pigs (P < 0·05). Our findings provide convincing evidence of possible prebiotic and protective effect of FOS on the maintenance of intestinal epithelial function under the attack of pathogens.