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The incidence of scarlet fever has increased dramatically in recent years in Chongqing, China, but there has no effective method to forecast it. This study aimed to develop a forecasting model of the incidence of scarlet fever using a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. Monthly scarlet fever data between 2011 and 2019 in Chongqing, China were retrieved from the Notifiable Infectious Disease Surveillance System. From 2011 to 2019, a total of 5073 scarlet fever cases were reported in Chongqing, the male-to-female ratio was 1.44:1, children aged 3–9 years old accounted for 81.86% of the cases, while 42.70 and 42.58% of the reported cases were students and kindergarten children, respectively. The data from 2011 to 2018 were used to fit a SARIMA model and data in 2019 were used to validate the model. The normalised Bayesian information criterion (BIC), the coefficient of determination (R2) and the root mean squared error (RMSE) were used to evaluate the goodness-of-fit of the fitted model. The optimal SARIMA model was identified as (3, 1, 3) (3, 1, 0)12. The RMSE and mean absolute per cent error (MAPE) were used to assess the accuracy of the model. The RMSE and MAPE of the predicted values were 19.40 and 0.25 respectively, indicating that the predicted values matched the observed values reasonably well. Taken together, the SARIMA model could be employed to forecast scarlet fever incidence trend, providing support for scarlet fever control and prevention.
Identification of treatment-specific predictors of drug therapies for bipolar disorder (BD) is important because only about half of individuals respond to any specific medication. However, medication response in pediatric BD is variable and not well predicted by clinical characteristics.
A total of 121 youth with early course BD (acute manic/mixed episode) were prospectively recruited and randomized to 6 weeks of double-blind treatment with quetiapine (n = 71) or lithium (n = 50). Participants completed structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) at baseline before treatment and 1 week after treatment initiation, and brain morphometric features were extracted for each individual based on MRI scans. Positive antimanic treatment response at week 6 was defined as an over 50% reduction of Young Mania Rating Scale scores from baseline. Two-stage deep learning prediction model was established to distinguish responders and non-responders based on different feature sets.
Pre-treatment morphometry and morphometric changes occurring during the first week can both independently predict treatment outcome of quetiapine and lithium with balanced accuracy over 75% (all p < 0.05). Combining brain morphometry at baseline and week 1 allows prediction with the highest balanced accuracy (quetiapine: 83.2% and lithium: 83.5%). Predictions in the quetiapine and lithium group were found to be driven by different morphometric patterns.
These findings demonstrate that pre-treatment morphometric measures and acute brain morphometric changes can serve as medication response predictors in pediatric BD. Brain morphometric features may provide promising biomarkers for developing biologically-informed treatment outcome prediction and patient stratification tools for BD treatment development.
Patients on dialysis are at high risk for severe COVID-19 and associated morbidity and mortality. We examined the humoral response to SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine BNT162b2 in a maintenance dialysis population.
Single-center cohort study.
Setting and participants:
Adult maintenance dialysis patients at 3 outpatient dialysis units of a large academic center.
Participants were vaccinated with 2 doses of BNT162b2, 3 weeks apart. We assessed anti–SARS-CoV-2 spike antibodies (anti-S) ∼4–7 weeks after the second dose and evaluated risk factors associated with insufficient response. Definitions of antibody response are as follows: nonresponse (anti-S level, <50 AU/mL), low response (anti-S level, 50–839 AU/mL), and sufficient response (anti-S level, ≥840 AU/mL).
Among the 173 participants who received 2 vaccine doses, the median age was 60 years (range, 28–88), 53.2% were men, 85% were of Black race, 86% were on in-center hemodialysis and 14% were on peritoneal dialysis. Also, 7 participants (4%) had no response, 27 (15.6%) had a low response, and 139 (80.3%) had a sufficient antibody response. In multivariable analysis, factors significantly associated with insufficient antibody response included end-stage renal disease comorbidity index score ≥5 and absence of prior hepatitis B vaccination response.
Although most of our study participants seroconverted after 2 doses of BNT162b2, 20% of our cohort did not achieve sufficient humoral response. Our findings demonstrate the urgent need for a more effective vaccine strategy in this high-risk patient population and highlight the importance of ongoing preventative measures until protective immunity is achieved.
To study the effectiveness of unilateral cochlear implantation, binaural-bimodal hearing devices, and bilateral cochlear implantation in children with inner-ear malformation.
This study comprised 261 patients who were allocated to inner-ear malformation or control groups. Twenty-four months after surgery, aided sound-field thresholds were tested, and the Meaningful Auditory Integration Scale, Infant-Toddler Meaningful Auditory Integration Scale, Meaningful Use of Speech Scale, Categories of Auditory Performance scale and Speech Intelligibility Rating test were completed.
Aided sound-field thresholds were significantly better for bilateral cochlear implantation patients than for unilateral cochlear implantation or binaural-bimodal hearing device patients. There was no significant difference in Meaningful Auditory Integration Scale, Infant-Toddler Meaningful Auditory Integration Scale, or Categories of Auditory Performance scores among the three groups. The binaural-bimodal hearing device patients outperformed unilateral cochlear implantation patients on both Meaningful Use of Speech Scale and Speech Intelligibility Rating scores. No statistical difference was observed between the two subgroups.
Children who received bilateral cochlear implants have the best auditory awareness in a quiet environment. Children with binaural-bimodal hearing devices have better voice control and verbal skills than unilateral cochlear implantation patients, and people are more likely to understand them. Children with inner-ear malformations benefit from cochlear implantation.
Trust and reciprocity are two closely linked concepts that are ubiquitous within cooperative exchange. To distinguish the two, we first review potential motivations that drive trusting and reciprocal behavior. Economic theories suggest that both preferences over monetary distributions (outcome-based) as well as considerations about others’ intentions (belief-based) may contribute to decisions to trust and reciprocate. Outcome-based theories suggest that individuals’ internal preferences over monetary distribution influence decision-making. In comparison, belief-based theories assume that individuals’ expectations about themselves and others generate emotions that influence decision-making. Turning to the neuroscience of trust and reciprocity with the trust game, we find that neural activations in insula, dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, and anterior cingulate cortex are common to belief-based motivations, while neural responses in caudate and amygdala reflect outcome-based motivations. Integrating economic theory with neuroscientific findings, we suggest that reciprocal behavior is primarily driven by belief-based motivations while trust behavior is associated with outcome-based preferences. We propose that future research should examine the potential context-dependent nature of behavioral motivations, investigate both positive and negative reciprocity, and leverage the trust game and related paradigms to parse potential sources of social dysfunction in mental illness.
The cosmic evolution of the chemical elements from the Big Bang to the present time is driven by nuclear fusion reactions inside stars and stellar explosions. A cycle of matter recurrently re-processes metal-enriched stellar ejecta into the next generation of stars. The study of cosmic nucleosynthesis and this matter cycle requires the understanding of the physics of nuclear reactions, of the conditions at which the nuclear reactions are activated inside the stars and stellar explosions, of the stellar ejection mechanisms through winds and explosions, and of the transport of the ejecta towards the next cycle, from hot plasma to cold, star-forming gas. Due to the long timescales of stellar evolution, and because of the infrequent occurrence of stellar explosions, observational studies are challenging, as they have biases in time and space as well as different sensitivities related to the various astronomical methods. Here, we describe in detail the astrophysical and nuclear-physical processes involved in creating two radioactive isotopes useful in such studies,
. Due to their radioactive lifetime of the order of a million years, these isotopes are suitable to characterise simultaneously the processes of nuclear fusion reactions and of interstellar transport. We describe and discuss the nuclear reactions involved in the production and destruction of
, the key characteristics of the stellar sites of their nucleosynthesis and their interstellar journey after ejection from the nucleosynthesis sites. This allows us to connect the theoretical astrophysical aspects to the variety of astronomical messengers presented here, from stardust and cosmic-ray composition measurements, through observation of
rays produced by radioactivity, to material deposited in deep-sea ocean crusts and to the inferred composition of the first solids that have formed in the Solar System. We show that considering measurements of the isotopic ratio of
eliminate some of the unknowns when interpreting astronomical results, and discuss the lessons learned from these two isotopes on cosmic chemical evolution. This review paper has emerged from an ISSI-BJ Team project in 2017–2019, bringing together nuclear physicists, astronomers, and astrophysicists in this inter-disciplinary discussion.
Spanish–English bilinguals switched between naming pictures in one language and either reading-aloud or semantically classifying written words in both languages. When switching between reading-aloud and picture-naming, bilinguals exhibited no language switch costs in picture-naming even though they produced overt language switches in speech. However, when switching between semantic classification and picture-naming, bilinguals, especially unbalanced bilinguals, exhibited switch costs in the dominant language and switch facilitation in the nondominant language even though they never switched languages overtly. These results reveal language switching across comprehension and production can be cost-free when the intention remains the same. Assuming switch costs at least partially reflect inhibition of the nontarget language, this implies such language control mechanisms are recruited only under demanding task conditions, especially for unbalanced bilinguals. These results provide striking demonstration of adaptive control mechanisms and call into question previous claims that language switch costs necessarily transfer from comprehension to production.
We report on experimental observation of non-laminar proton acceleration modulated by a strong magnetic field in laser irradiating micrometer aluminum targets. The results illustrate the coexistence of ring-like and filamentation structures. We implement the knife edge method into the radiochromic film detector to map the accelerated beams, measuring a source size of 30–110 μm for protons of more than 5 MeV. The diagnosis reveals that the ring-like profile originates from low-energy protons far off the axis whereas the filamentation is from the near-axis high-energy protons, exhibiting non-laminar features. Particle-in-cell simulations reproduced the experimental results, showing that the short-term magnetic turbulence via Weibel instability and the long-term quasi-static annular magnetic field by the streaming electric current account for the measured beam profile. Our work provides direct mapping of laser-driven proton sources in the space-energy domain and reveals the non-laminar beam evolution at featured time scales.
Background: Standardized magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) guidelines published in 2015 by the Europoean MAGNIMS group and in 2016 by the CMSC are important for the diagnosis and monitoring of patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) and for the appropriate use of MRI in routine clinical practice. Methods: Two panels of experts convened to update existing guidelines for a standardized MRI protocol. The MAGNIMS panel convened in Graz, Austria in April 2019. The CMSC NAIMS panel met separately and independently in Newark, USA in October 2019. Subsequently, the MAGNIMS, NAIMS, and CMSC working groups combined their efforts to reach an international consensus Results: The revised guidelines on MRI in MS merges recommendations from MAGNIMS, CMSC, and NAIMS to improve the use of MRI for diagnosis, prognosis and monitoring of individuals with MS. 3D acquisitions are emphasized for optimal comparison over time. Core brain sequences include a 3D-T2wFLAIR for lesion identification and monitoring treatment effectiveness. Gadolinium-based contrast is recommended for diagnostic studies and judicious use for routine monitoring of MS patients. DWI sequences are recommended for PML safety monitoring. Conclusions: The international consensus guidelines strive for global acceptance of a useful and usable standard of care for patients with MS.
The aim of the present study was to perform a retrospective review of the lesion sites in congenital middle-ear cholesteatoma and any accompanying ossicular defects, as well as to explore the possible aetiology of congenital middle-ear cholesteatoma associated with such ossicular chain defects.
The clinical characteristics and pathogenic mechanisms of ossicular chain defects were investigated in 10 patients with early-stage congenital middle-ear cholesteatoma confirmed by surgery, from August 2011 to February 2019.
Monofocal cholesteatoma was located in the anterosuperior quadrant in 3 cases and in the posterosuperior quadrant in 7 cases; all 10 cases showed an absence of the long crus of incus, and 8 cases showed a complete or partial absence of stapes superstructure. The lesions were confined to the vestibular window and the stapes region and had no contact with the long crus of the incus or stapes in nine cases. None of the 10 patients had any recurrence of cholesteatoma.
Although cholesteatoma can cause erosion of ossicles, the present cases suggest that residual epithelium of the cholesteatoma may coexist with ossicular malformations. Therefore, the aetiology of the clinical characteristics in these patients may derive from residual epithelial hinderance of ossicle development.
Studying phenotypic and genetic characteristics of age at onset (AAO) and polarity at onset (PAO) in bipolar disorder can provide new insights into disease pathology and facilitate the development of screening tools.
To examine the genetic architecture of AAO and PAO and their association with bipolar disorder disease characteristics.
Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) and polygenic score (PGS) analyses of AAO (n = 12 977) and PAO (n = 6773) were conducted in patients with bipolar disorder from 34 cohorts and a replication sample (n = 2237). The association of onset with disease characteristics was investigated in two of these cohorts.
Earlier AAO was associated with a higher probability of psychotic symptoms, suicidality, lower educational attainment, not living together and fewer episodes. Depressive onset correlated with suicidality and manic onset correlated with delusions and manic episodes. Systematic differences in AAO between cohorts and continents of origin were observed. This was also reflected in single-nucleotide variant-based heritability estimates, with higher heritabilities for stricter onset definitions. Increased PGS for autism spectrum disorder (β = −0.34 years, s.e. = 0.08), major depression (β = −0.34 years, s.e. = 0.08), schizophrenia (β = −0.39 years, s.e. = 0.08), and educational attainment (β = −0.31 years, s.e. = 0.08) were associated with an earlier AAO. The AAO GWAS identified one significant locus, but this finding did not replicate. Neither GWAS nor PGS analyses yielded significant associations with PAO.
AAO and PAO are associated with indicators of bipolar disorder severity. Individuals with an earlier onset show an increased polygenic liability for a broad spectrum of psychiatric traits. Systematic differences in AAO across cohorts, continents and phenotype definitions introduce significant heterogeneity, affecting analyses.
Pneumatic launch systems for Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), including mechanical and pneumatic systems, are complex and non-linear. They are subjected to system parameters during launch, which leads to difficulty in engineering research analysis. For example, the mismatch between the UAV parameters and the parameter design indices of the launch system as well as the unclear design indices of the launching speed and overload of UAVs have a great impact on launch safety. Considering this situation, some studies are presented in this paper. Taking the pneumatic launch system as a research object, a pneumatic launcher dynamic simulation model is built based on co-simulation considering the coupling characteristics of the mechanical structure and transmission system. Its accuracy was verified by laboratory test results. Based on this model, the paper shows the effects of the key parameters, including the mass of the UAV, cylinder volume, pressure and moment of inertia of the pulley block, on the performance of the dynamic characteristics of the launch process. Then, a method for matching the parameter characteristics between the UAV and launch system based on batch simulation is proposed. The set of matching parameter values of the UAV and launch system that satisfy the launch take-off safety criteria are calculated. Finally, the influence of the system parameters of the launch process on the launch performance was analysed in detail, and the design optimised. Meaningful conclusions were obtained. The analysis method and its results can provide a reference for engineering and theoretical research and development of pneumatic launch systems.
We use a continuous wavelet transform to analyse the daily hemispheric sunspot area data from the Greenwich Royal Observatory during cycles 12–24 and then study the cause of the appearance or disappearance of the Rieger-type periodicity in the northern and southern hemispheres during a certain cycle. The Rieger-type periodicity in the northern and southern hemispheres should be developed independently in the two hemispheres. This periodicity in the northern hemisphere is generally anti-correlated with the long-term variations in the mean solar cycle strength of hemispheric activity, but the correlation of the two parameters in the southern hemisphere shows a weak correlation. The appearance or disappearance of Rieger-type periodicity in the northern and southern hemispheres during a certain solar cycle is not directly correlated with their corresponding hemispheric mean activity strength but should be related to the strength of the hemispheric activity during sunspot maximum times, which hints the Rieger-type periodicity is more related to temporal evolution of toroidal magnetic field. The Rieger-type periodicity in the two hemispheres disappears in those solar cycles with relatively weak hemispheric activity during sunspot maximum times. The reason for the disappearance of this periodicity may be due to the combined influence of relatively weak toroidal magnetic fields and torsional oscillations, the differential rotation parameters vary through the solar cycle and may not remain more or less unchanged during some time, which does not permit the strong growth of magnetic Rossby waves.
The aim of this study was to identify factors associated with distress experienced by physicians during their first coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) triage decisions.
An online survey was administered to physicians licensed in New York State.
Of the 164 physicians studied, 20.7% experienced severe distress during their first COVID-19 triage decisions. The mean distress score was not significantly different between physicians who received just-in-time training and those who did not (6.0 ± 2.7 vs 6.2 ± 2.8; P = 0.550) and between physicians who received clinical guidelines and those who did not (6.0 ± 2.9 vs 6.2 ± 2.7; P = 0.820). Substantially increased odds of severe distress were found in physicians who reported that their first COVID-19 triage decisions were inconsistent with their core values (adjusted odds ratio, 6.33; 95% confidence interval, 2.03-19.76) and who reported having insufficient skills and expertise (adjusted odds ratio 2.99, 95% confidence interval 0.91-9.87).
Approximately 1 in 5 physicians in New York experienced severe distress during their first COVID-19 triage decisions. Physicians with insufficient skills and expertise, and core values misaligned to triage decisions are at heightened risk of experiencing severe distress. Just-in-time training and clinical guidelines do not appear to alleviate distress experienced by physicians during their first COVID-19 triage decisions.
To examine whether the density of neighbourhood restaurants affected the frequency of eating restaurant meals and subsequently affected diet quality.
Cross-sectional and longitudinal designs. Structural equation models assessed the indirect relationship between restaurant density (≤3 miles (4·8 km) of participant addresses) and dietary quality (Healthy Eating Index 2010 (HEI)) via the frequency of eating restaurant meals, after adjustment for sociodemographics, select health conditions, region, residence duration and area-level income.
Urbanised areas in multiple regions of the USA, years 2000–2002 and 2010–2012.
Participants aged 45–84 years were followed for 10 years (n 3567).
Median HEI (out of 100) was fifty-nine at baseline and sixty-two at follow-up. The cross-sectional analysis found that residing in areas with a high density of restaurants (highest-ranked quartile) was associated with 52 % higher odds of frequently eating restaurant meals (≥3 times/week, OR: 1·52, 95 % CI 1·18, 1·98) and 3 % higher odds of having lower dietary quality (HEI lowest quartile < 54, OR: 1·03, 95 % CI 1·01, 1·06); associations were not sustained in longitudinal analyses. The cross-sectional analysis found 34 % higher odds of having lower dietary quality for those who frequently ate at restaurants (OR: 1·34, 95 % CI 1·12, 1·61), and more restaurant meals (over time increase ≥ 1 time/week) were associated with higher odds of having worse dietary quality at follow-up (OR: 1·21, 95 % CI 1·00, 1·46).
Restaurant density was associated with frequently eating out in cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses but was associated with the lower dietary quality only in cross-sectional analyses. Frequent restaurant meals were negatively related to dietary quality. Interventions that encourage less frequent eating out may improve population dietary quality.
While evidence-based psychotherapy (EBP) for posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is a first-line treatment, its real-world effectiveness is unknown. We compared cognitive processing therapy (CPT) and prolonged exposure (PE) each to an individual psychotherapy comparator group, and CPT to PE in a large national healthcare system.
We utilized effectiveness and comparative effectiveness emulated trials using retrospective cohort data from electronic medical records. Participants were veterans with PTSD initiating mental healthcare (N = 265 566). The primary outcome was PTSD symptoms measured by the PTSD Checklist (PCL) at baseline and 24-week follow-up. Emulated trials were comprised of ‘person-trials,’ representing 112 discrete 24-week periods of care (10/07–6/17) for each patient. Treatment group comparisons were made with generalized linear models, utilizing propensity score matching and inverse probability weights to account for confounding, selection, and non-adherence bias.
There were 636 CPT person-trials matched to 636 non-EBP person-trials. Completing ⩾8 CPT sessions was associated with a 6.4-point greater improvement on the PCL (95% CI 3.1–10.0). There were 272 PE person-trials matched to 272 non-EBP person-trials. Completing ⩾8 PE sessions was associated with a 9.7-point greater improvement on the PCL (95% CI 5.4–13.8). There were 232 PE person-trials matched to 232 CPT person-trials. Those completing ⩾8 PE sessions had slightly greater, but not statistically significant, improvement on the PCL (8.3-points; 95% CI 5.9–10.6) than those completing ⩾8 CPT sessions (7.0-points; 95% CI 5.5–8.5).
PTSD symptom improvement was similar and modest for both EBPs. Although EBPs are helpful, research to further improve PTSD care is critical.