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Species distribution models (SDMs) are statistical tools used to develop continuous predictions of species occurrence. ‘Integrated SDMs’ (ISDMs) are an elaboration of this approach with potential advantages that allow for the dual use of opportunistically collected presence-only data and site-occupancy data from planned surveys. These models also account for survey bias and imperfect detection through the use of a hierarchical modelling framework that separately estimates the species–environment response and detection process. This is particularly helpful for conservation applications and predictions for rare species, where data are often limited and prediction errors may have significant management consequences. Despite this potential importance, ISDMs remain largely untested under a variety of scenarios. We performed an exploration of key modelling decisions and assumptions on an ISDM using the endangered Baird’s tapir (Tapirus bairdii) as a test species. We found that site area had the strongest effect on the magnitude of population estimates and underlying intensity surface and was driven by estimates of model intercepts. Selecting a site area that accounted for the individual movements of the species within an average home range led to population estimates that coincided with expert estimates. ISDMs that do not account for the individual movements of species will likely lead to less accurate estimates of species intensity (number of individuals per unit area) and thus overall population estimates. This bias could be severe and highly detrimental to conservation actions if uninformed ISDMs are used to estimate global populations of threatened and data-deficient species, particularly those that lack natural history and movement information. However, the ISDM was consistently the most accurate model compared to other approaches, which demonstrates the importance of this new modelling framework and the ability to combine opportunistic data with systematic survey data. Thus, we recommend researchers use ISDMs with conservative movement information when estimating population sizes of rare and data-deficient species. ISDMs could be improved by using a similar parameterization to spatial capture–recapture models that explicitly incorporate animal movement as a model parameter, which would further remove the need for spatial subsampling prior to implementation.
Around 30% of individuals with schizophrenia remain symptomatic and significantly impaired despite antipsychotic treatment and are considered to be treatment resistant. Clinicians are currently unable to predict which patients are at higher risk of treatment resistance.
To determine whether genetic liability for schizophrenia and/or clinical characteristics measurable at illness onset can prospectively indicate a higher risk of treatment-resistant psychosis (TRP).
In 1070 individuals with schizophrenia or related psychotic disorders, schizophrenia polygenic risk scores (PRS) and large copy number variations (CNVs) were assessed for enrichment in TRP. Regression and machine-learning approaches were used to investigate the association of phenotypes related to demographics, family history, premorbid factors and illness onset with TRP.
Younger age at onset (odds ratio 0.94, P = 7.79 × 10−13) and poor premorbid social adjustment (odds ratio 1.64, P = 2.41 × 10−4) increased risk of TRP in univariate regression analyses. These factors remained associated in multivariate regression analyses, which also found lower premorbid IQ (odds ratio 0.98, P = 7.76 × 10−3), younger father's age at birth (odds ratio 0.97, P = 0.015) and cannabis use (odds ratio 1.60, P = 0.025) increased the risk of TRP. Machine-learning approaches found age at onset to be the most important predictor and also identified premorbid IQ and poor social adjustment as predictors of TRP, mirroring findings from regression analyses. Genetic liability for schizophrenia was not associated with TRP.
People with an earlier age at onset of psychosis and poor premorbid functioning are more likely to be treatment resistant. The genetic architecture of susceptibility to schizophrenia may be distinct from that of treatment outcomes.
To assess the reliability and validity of body weight (BW) and body image (BI) perception reported by parents (in children) and by adolescents in a South American population.
Cross-sectional study. BW perception was evaluated by the question, ‘Do you think you/your child are/is: severely wasted, wasted, normal weight, overweight, obese?’ BI perception was evaluated using the Gardner scale. To evaluate reliability, BW and BI perceptions were reported twice, two weeks apart. To evaluate validity, the BW and BI perceptions were compared with WHO BMI Z-scores. Kappa and Kendall’s tau-c coefficients were obtained.
Public and private schools and high schools from six countries of South America (Argentina, Peru, Colombia, Uruguay, Chile, Brazil).
Children aged 3–10 years (n 635) and adolescents aged 11–17 years (n 400).
Reliability of BW perception was fair in children’s parents (κ=0·337) and substantial in adolescents (κ=0·709). Validity of BW perception was slight in children’s parents (κ=0·176) and fair in adolescents (κ=0·268). When evaluating BI, most children were perceived by parents as having lower weight. Reliability of BI perception was slight in children’s parents (κ=0·124) and moderate in adolescents (κ=0·599). Validity of BI perception was poor in children’s parents (κ=−0·018) and slight in adolescents (κ=0·023).
Reliability of BW and BI perceptions was higher in adolescents than in children’s parents. Validity of BW perception was good among the parents of the children and adolescents with underweight and normal weight.
Off-target movement of dicamba and 2,4-D may injure and reduce the yield of many fruit and vegetable crops, impacting specialty crop producers and herbicide applicators alike. Two field experiments were established, using plant growth regulator–resistant soybean herbicide technologies, to evaluate drift and carryover risks to horseradish production. The drift experiment was conducted in 2015 and 2016 to evaluate impact of dicamba and 2,4-D simulated drift on horseradish production with a mid-POST application in soybean. Simulated drift rates were 1/10,000X, 1/1,000X, and 1/100X, with 1/2X, 1X, and 2X of standard application rates. Injury and yield loss was greater following application of 2,4-D than with dicamba. Yield reductions were observed beginning at the 1/1,000X rate of 2,4-D, with complete crop loss occurring when rates exceed 1/2X. In comparison, dicamba only reduced yields when applied at the 1X and 2X rates. Only horseradish roots from plants treated with dicamba at the 2X rate had greater dicamba residue than the nontreated control, and the amount detected, 0.32 parts per billion (ppb), was lower than the EPA tolerance of 100 ppb in root crops. There was little to no harvestable tissue for 2,4-D residue analysis for plants treated with 2,4-D at rates above 1/2X. The carryover experiment was a 2-yr rotational evaluation conducted in 2014, 2015, and 2016 to assess dicamba carryover to horseradish following application to dicamba-resistant soybean the previous season. Observations taken at 4, 6, and 8 wk after planting indicated no significant horseradish injury, nor was height, stand, or root weight reduced. These results suggest that horseradish growers should have few concerns about injury from dicamba drift or carryover. While 2,4-D applicators may need to be cautious when making applications near horseradish fields, 2,4-D may be an effective tool for controlling volunteer horseradish in 2,4-D–resistant soybean.
The phrase ‘Ovidian poetry’ or sometimes ‘mythological poetry’ is commonly used to denote a group of English poems written in the manner of Ovid during the 1590s and thereafter. Most importandy the group includes Lodge's Glaucus and Scilla (1589), Marlowe's Hero and Leander (1593), Shakespeare's Venus and Adonis (1593), T. H.'s Œnone and Paris (1594), Drayton's Endimion and Phoebe (1595), Thomas Edwards’ Cephalus and Procris and Narcissus (1595). All the poems recast, or rather amplify, myths from Ovid and other classical writers; all treat a love story, usually with that precious combination of sensuality and sentiment for which Ovid is famous; all are highly ornate, employing rhetorically worked up love arguments, rich descriptions of clothing, buildings, tapestries, and the like, and minor embellishing myths like that of Neptune trying to embrace Leander in Marlowe's poem.
It has previously been supposed that Lodge rendered in English Des Portes’ sonnet 34 from Diane, Book 1, twice. In the present paper I shall show that the first of these renderings was based on a madrigal in Watson's The First Sett of Italian Madrigalls Englished and shall try to interpret this fact.
Most studies underline the contribution of heritable factors for psychiatric disorders. However, heritability estimates depend on the population under study, diagnostic instruments, and study designs that each has its inherent assumptions, strengths, and biases. We aim to test the homogeneity in heritability estimates between two powerful, and state of the art study designs for eight psychiatric disorders.
We assessed heritability based on data of Swedish siblings (N = 4 408 646 full and maternal half-siblings), and based on summary data of eight samples with measured genotypes (N = 125 533 cases and 208 215 controls). All data were based on standard diagnostic criteria. Eight psychiatric disorders were studied: (1) alcohol dependence (AD), (2) anorexia nervosa, (3) attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), (4) autism spectrum disorder, (5) bipolar disorder, (6) major depressive disorder, (7) obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD), and (8) schizophrenia.
Heritability estimates from sibling data varied from 0.30 for Major Depression to 0.80 for ADHD. The estimates based on the measured genotypes were lower, ranging from 0.10 for AD to 0.28 for OCD, but were significant, and correlated positively (0.19) with national sibling-based estimates. When removing OCD from the data the correlation increased to 0.50.
Given the unique character of each study design, the convergent findings for these eight psychiatric conditions suggest that heritability estimates are robust across different methods. The findings also highlight large differences in genetic and environmental influences between psychiatric disorders, providing future directions for etiological psychiatric research.
Footprints in Time: The Longitudinal Study of Indigenous Children (LSIC) is a national study of 1759 Australian Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children living across urban, regional and remote areas of Australia. The study is in its 11th wave of annual data collection, having collected extensive data on topics including birth and early life influences, parental health and well-being, identity, cultural engagement, language use, housing, racism, school engagement and academic achievement, and social and emotional well-being. The current paper reviews a selection of major findings from Footprints in Time relating to the developmental origins of health and disease for Australian Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples. Opportunities for new researchers to conduct further research utilizing the LSIC data set are also presented.
Sex differences in the incidence of infections may indicate different risk factors and behaviour but have not been analysed across pathogens. Based on 3.96 million records of 33 pathogens in Germany, notified from 2001 to 2013, we applied Poisson regression to generate age-standardised incidence rate ratios and assessed their distribution across age and sex. The following trends became apparent: (a) pathogens with male incidence preponderance at infant and child age (meningococcal disease (incidence rate ratio (IRR) = 1.19, 95% CI 1.03–1.38, age = 0–4); influenza (IRR = 1.09, 95% CI 1.06–1.13, age = 0–4)), (b) pathogens with sex-switch in incidence preponderance at puberty (e.g. norovirus (IRR = 1.10, 95% CI 1.02–1.19 in age = 5–14, IRR = 0.96, 95% CI 0.93–0.99, age ⩾ 60), (c) pathogens with general male incidence preponderance (bacterial/parasitic infections with campylobacter, Yersinia and Giardia), (d) pathogens with male incidence preponderance at juvenile and adult age (sexually transmitted or vector-borne infections (combined-IRR = 2.53, 95% CI 2.36–2.71, age = 15–59), (e) pathogens with male preponderance at older age (tick-borne encephalitis - IRR = 2.75, 95% CI 1.21–6.24, listeriosis - IRR = 2.06, 95% CI 1.38–3.06, age ⩾ 60). Risk factor concepts only partly serve to interpret similarities of grouped infections, i.e. transmission-related explanations and sex-specific exposures not consistently explain the pattern of food-borne infections (b). Sex-specific differences in infectious disease incidence are well acknowledged regarding the sexually transmitted diseases. This has led to designing gender-specific prevention strategies. Our data suggest that for infections with other transmission routes, gender-specific approaches can also be of benefit and importance.
Little is known about the association of cortical Aβ with depression and anxiety among cognitively normal (CN) elderly persons.
We conducted a cross-sectional study derived from the population-based Mayo Clinic Study of Aging in Olmsted County, Minnesota; involving CN persons aged ≥ 60 years that underwent PiB-PET scans and completed Beck Depression Inventory-II (BDI-II) and Beck Anxiety Inventory (BAI). Cognitive diagnosis was made by an expert consensus panel. Participants were classified as having abnormal (≥1.4; PiB+) or normal PiB-PET (<1.4; PiB−) using a global cortical to cerebellar ratio. Multi-variable logistic regression analyses were performed to calculate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) after adjusting for age and sex.
Of 1,038 CN participants (53.1% males), 379 were PiB+. Each one point symptom increase in the BDI (OR = 1.03; 1.00–1.06) and BAI (OR = 1.04; 1.01–1.08) was associated with increased odds of PiB-PET+. The number of participants with BDI > 13 (clinical depression) was greater in the PiB-PET+ than PiB-PET- group but the difference was not significant (OR = 1.42; 0.83–2.43). Similarly, the number of participants with BAI > 10 (clinical anxiety) was greater in the PiB-PET+ than PiB-PET− group but the difference was not significant (OR = 1.77; 0.97–3.22).
As expected, depression and anxiety levels were low in this community-dwelling sample, which likely reduced our statistical power. However, we observed an informative albeit weak association between increased BDI and BAI scores and elevated cortical amyloid deposition. This observation needs to be tested in a longitudinal cohort study.
Management of volunteer horseradish is a challenge when it is grown in rotation with other crops, such as corn and soybean. Although volunteer horseradish may not cause yield loss, these plants serve as hosts for various soilborne pathogens that damage subsequent horseradish crops. In addition to volunteer horseradish, glyphosate-resistant Palmer amaranth is becoming difficult to control in southwestern Illinois, as a consequence of the plant’s ability to withstand glyphosate and drought, produce many seeds, and grow rapidly. Field studies were conducted to evaluate the effect of glyphosate and dicamba on volunteer horseradish and Palmer amaranth control in 2014 and 2015. Glyphosate alone (1,265 and 1,893 g ae ha−1) and glyphosate plus dicamba at the high rate (1,680 g ae ha−1) provided the greatest volunteer horseradish control, ranging from 81% to 89% and 90% to 93%, respectively. Measures of root biomass reduction followed similar trends. Glyphosate alone provided the greatest reduction in volunteer horseradish root viability (79% to 100%) but was similar in efficacy to applications of glyphosate plus dicamba in most comparisons. Efficacy of PRE-only applications on Palmer amaranth control ranged from 92% to 99% control in 2014 and 68% to 99% in 2015. However, PRE-only applications were often similar in efficacy to PRE followed by (fb) glyphosate plus dicamba applied POST. Treatments containing flumioxazin did not control Palmer amaranth as well as other treatments. POST applications alone were not effective in managing Palmer amaranth. Many of the PRE fb POST treatment options tested will improve resistance management over PRE-only treatments, provide control of Palmer amaranth, and allow horseradish to be planted the following spring.
Bipolar disorder and schizophrenia are associated with increased mortality relative to the general population. There is an international emphasis on decreasing this excess mortality.
To determine whether the mortality gap between individuals with bipolar disorder and schizophrenia and the general population has decreased.
A nationally representative cohort study using primary care electronic health records from 2000 to 2014, comparing all patients diagnosed with bipolar disorder or schizophrenia and the general population. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality.
Individuals with bipolar disorder and schizophrenia had elevated mortality (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) = 1.79, 95% CI 1.67–1.88 and 2.08, 95% CI 1.98–2.19 respectively). Adjusted HRs for bipolar disorder increased by 0.14/year (95% CI 0.10–0.19) from 2006 to 2014. The adjusted HRs for schizophrenia increased gradually from 2004 to 2010 (0.11/year, 95% CI 0.04–0.17) and rapidly after 2010 (0.34/year, 95% CI 0.18–0.49).
The mortality gap between individuals with bipolar disorder and schizophrenia, and the general population is widening.