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During the last fifteen years there has been a paradigm shift in the continuum modelling of granular materials; most notably with the development of rheological models, such as the $\mu (I)$-rheology (where $\mu$ is the friction and I is the inertial number), but also with significant advances in theories for particle segregation. This paper details theoretical and numerical frameworks (based on OpenFOAM) which unify these currently disconnected endeavours. Coupling the segregation with the flow, and vice versa, is not only vital for a complete theory of granular materials, but is also beneficial for developing numerical methods to handle evolving free surfaces. This general approach is based on the partially regularized incompressible $\mu (I)$-rheology, which is coupled to the gravity-driven segregation theory of Gray & Ancey (J. Fluid Mech., vol. 678, 2011, pp. 353–588). These advection–diffusion–segregation equations describe the evolving concentrations of the constituents, which then couple back to the variable viscosity in the incompressible Navier–Stokes equations. A novel feature of this approach is that any number of differently sized phases may be included, which may have disparate frictional properties. Further inclusion of an excess air phase, which segregates away from the granular material, then allows the complex evolution of the free surface to be captured simultaneously. Three primary coupling mechanisms are identified: (i) advection of the particle concentrations by the bulk velocity, (ii) feedback of the particle-size and/or frictional properties on the bulk flow field and (iii) influence of the shear rate, pressure, gravity, particle size and particle-size ratio on the locally evolving segregation and diffusion rates. The numerical method is extensively tested in one-way coupled computations, before the fully coupled model is compared with the discrete element method simulations of Tripathi & Khakhar (Phys. Fluids, vol. 23, 2011, 113302) and used to compute the petal-like segregation pattern that spontaneously develops in a square rotating drum.
A review of the literature demonstrates that relatively little is known about acute psychiatric presentations in children (0–12 years), compared with adolescents or young adults (12 years+). This study aims to review psychiatric presentations of children to a CAMHS Liaison Service at Children’s Hospital Ireland (CHI) at Tallaght University Hospital over a 10-year period.
A retrospective study was undertaken of case notes of all children aged 12 years and under who were referred to the CAMHS Liaison Service between January 2009 and December 2018 (n = 318). Data were anonymised and inputted into SPSSv25 for analysis. The relationships between presentations and methods of self-harm over time were measured using Pearson’s correlation. Associations between categorical variables were analysed using chi-squared tests.
There was a significant increase in presentations of under-12s over the 10-year period (r(8)=0.66, p = 0.02). There was also a significant increase in children presenting with a disturbance of conduct and/or emotions over time (r(8) = 0.79, p < 0.001). There was a significant association between female gender and ingestion (X2 = 12.73, df = 1, p < 0.05) and between male gender and ligature as a method of self-harm (X2 = 5.54, df = 1, p < 0.05). Over half (53%) of children presented with suicidal thoughts and 22% presented with suicidal behaviours. The reported use of ligature as a method of self-harm emerged only from 2012 among cases studied.
Children aged 12 years and under are presenting in increasing numbers with acute mental health difficulties, including suicidal thoughts and behaviours. There is a worrying trend in methods of self-harm, particularly in high lethality behaviours such as attempted strangulation.
The usual development of OE [ɑld] in words such as old in Scots is to auld, reflecting the development of this sequence in northern dialects more generally. But in some Scots dialects other pronunciations of these words, reminiscent of dialects of English south of the Ribble–Humber Line, are found. These forms, of the type owld, are found across Lowland Scotland, with particular concentrations in the far north and southwest. Origins in Irish English and English in England have been suggested for this feature of Scots but these hypotheses have not been explored. Aitken & Macafee (2002: 61–2) instead argue for an endogenous origin of both auld and owld, but this proposed double endogenous development of OE [ɑld] is problematic in a number of ways. In this article, I examine the history of these developments in Scots in comparison to their development in dialects of English in England and Ireland. The lack of evidence for the owld development in Older Scots suggests that these forms are of relatively recent origin. Crucially, the Eighteenth-Century English Phonology Database (ECEP) reveals that the owld pronunciations were in fact a feature of early forms of Standard English. Furthermore, several characteristic features of Irish English have spread into southwest Scotland, and the distribution of owld forms in the area fits this pattern. Thus Scots forms such as owld are not the result of endogenous development, but have their origin in English, in the case of southwest Scotland at least in part from Irish English, and elsewhere in Scotland from early forms of Standard English. These owld forms have been ‘localised’ and reinterpreted as ‘Scots’, alongside or replacing original auld. The analysis of the origins of this feature highlights not only the role of contact with varieties of English in the development of Scots, but also the importance of sources such as the ECEP database for understanding the historical phonology of Scots and English.
In a RCT of family psychoeducation, 47 carers of 34 patients were allocated to one of three groups; Multifamily Group Psychoeducation, Solution Focussed Group Therapy or Treatment as Usual. Carers in both the MFGP intervention and the SFGP arm demonstrated greater knowledge and reduction in burden than those in the TAU arm.
This paper explores dependencies between operational risks and between operational risks and other risks such as market, credit and insurance risk. The paper starts by setting the regulatory context and then goes into practical aspects of operational risk dependencies. Next, methods of modelling operational risk dependencies are considered with a simulation study exploring the sensitivity of diversification benefits arising from dependency models. The following two sections consider how correlation assumptions may be set, highlighting some generic dependencies between operational risks and with non-operational risks to assist in the assessment of dependencies and correlation assumptions. Supplementary appendices provide further detail on generic dependencies as well as a case study of how business models can lead to operational risks interacting with other risks. Finally, the paper finishes with a literature review of operational risk dependency papers including correlation studies and benchmark reports.
We compared antibiotic prescribing to older people in different settings to inform antibiotic stewardship interventions. We used data linkage to stratify individuals aged 65 years and over in Northern Ireland, 1st January 2012–31st December 2013, by residence: community dwelling, care home dwelling or ‘transitioned’ if admitted to a care home. The odds of being prescribed an antibiotic by residence were analysed using logistic regression, adjusting for patient demographics and selected medication use (proxy for co-morbidities). Trends in monthly antibiotic prescribing were examined in the 6 months pre- and post-admission to the care home. The odds of being prescribed at least one antibiotic were twofold higher in care homes compared with community dwellers (adjusted odds ratio 2.05, 95% CI 1.93–2.17). There was a proportionate increase of 51.5% in the percentage prescribed an antibiotic on admission, with a monthly average of 23% receiving an antibiotic in the 6 months post admission. While clinical need likely accounts for some of the observed antibiotic prescribing in care homes we cannot rule out more liberal prescribing, given the twofold difference between care home residents and their community dwelling peers having accounted for co-morbidities. The appropriateness of antibiotic prescribing in the care home setting should be examined.
Micronutrients such as trace elements and vitamins are important as enzyme cofactors in the metabolism of all cells in the body and therefore key to determining nutritional status. The present systematic review examined the evidence of the impact of the systemic inflammatory response on plasma micronutrient status in acute (surgical) and chronic tissue injury. A literature review using targeted subject headings was carried out. Plasma C-reactive protein was used to classify minor (<10 mg/l), moderate (11–80 mg/l) and major (>80 mg/l) inflammation. The literature search produced 2344 publications and plasma vitamin D, zinc and carotenoids were most commonly studied and plasma vitamins K, B2 and B6 were least studied. In acute injury thirteen studies (all prospective) and in chronic injury twenty-four studies (largely retrospective) were included in the review. There was consistent evidence that most common measured micronutrients in the plasma (zinc, selenium, vitamins A, D, E, K, B2, B6, B12, C, lutein, lycopene, α- and β-carotene) were significantly lowered from minor to moderate to major inflammation. The results of the present systematic review indicate that most plasma micronutrients fall as part of the systemic inflammatory response irrespective of acute or chronic injury. Therefore, in the presence of a systemic inflammation, plasma micronutrient concentrations should be interpreted with caution. There are a number of methods applied to adjust plasma micronutrient concentrations to avoid misdiagnosis of deficiency. Alternatively, intracellular measurements appear to obviate the need for such plasma adjustment to assess micronutrient status.
Upper respiratory tract infections (URTI) are the most common and costly condition of childhood. Low vitamin D levels have been hypothesized as a risk factor for URTI. The primary objective was to determine if serum vitamin D levels were associated with health-service utilization (HSU) for URTI including hospital admission, emergency department visits and outpatient sick visits. The secondary objectives were to determine whether oral vitamin D supplementation in pregnancy or childhood was associated with HSU for URTI.
Cohort study. HSU was determined by linking each child’s provincial health insurance number to health administrative databases. Multivariable quasi Poisson regression was used to evaluate the association between 25-hydroxyvitamin D, vitamin D supplementation and HSU for URTI.
Children participating in the TARGet Kids! network between 2008 and 2013.
Healthy children aged 0–5 years (n 4962) were included; 52 % were male and mean 25-hydroxyvitamin D was 84 nmol/l (range 11–355 nmol/l). There were 105 (2 %), 721 (15 %) and 3218 (65 %) children with at least one hospital admission, emergency department visit or outpatient sick visit for URTI, respectively. There were no statistically significant associations between 25-hydroxyvitamin D or vitamin D supplementation and HSU for URTI.
A clinically meaningful association between vitamin D (continuously and dichotomized at <50 and <75 nmol/l) and HSU for URTI was not identified. While vitamin D may have other benefits for health, reducing HSU for URTI does not appear to be one of them.
Open-water swimming is increasingly popular, often in water not considered safe for bathing. Limited evidence exists on the associated health risks. We investigated gastrointestinal illness in 1100 swimmers in a River Thames event in London, UK, to describe the outbreak and identify risk factors. We conducted a retrospective cohort study. Our case definition was swimmers with any: diarrhoea, vomiting, abdominal cramps lasting ⩾48 h, nausea lasting ⩾48 h, with onset within 9 days after the event. We used an online survey to collect information on symptoms, demographics, pre- and post-swim behaviours and open-water experience. We tested associations using robust Poisson regression. We followed up case microbiological results. Survey response was 61%, and attack rate 53% (338 cases). Median incubation period was 34 h and median symptom duration 4 days. Five cases had confirmed microbiological diagnoses (four Giardia, one Cryptosporidium). Wearing a wetsuit [adjusted relative risk (aRR) 6·96, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1·04–46·72] and swallowing water (aRR 1·42, 95% CI 1·03–1·97) were risk factors. Recent river-swimming (aRR 0·78, 95% CI 0·67–0·92) and age >40 years (aRR 0·83, 95% CI 0·70–0·98) were protective. Action to reduce risk of illness in future events is recommended, including clarification of oversight arrangements for future swims to ensure appropriate risk assessment and advice is provided.
This paper seeks to establish good practice in setting inputs for operational risk models for banks, insurers and other financial service firms. It reviews Basel, Solvency II and other regulatory requirements as well as publicly available literature on operational risk modelling. It recommends a combination of historic loss data and scenario analysis for modelling of individual risks, setting out issues with these data, and outlining good practice for loss data collection and scenario analysis. It recommends the use of expert judgement for setting correlations, and addresses information requirements for risk mitigation allowances and capital allocation, before briefly covering Bayesian network methods for modelling operational risks.
To evaluate and compare the opinions of key stakeholders involved in the involuntary admission and treatment of patients under the Mental Health Act (MHA) 2001 regarding their views towards the operation of the legislation.
We employed a descriptive survey design. A questionnaire was distributed to stakeholders involved in the operation of the MHA 2001 (except service users, whose views were explored in a separate qualitative study) via paper or online versions evaluating their opinions regarding the operation of the MHA 2001 in relation to assessment, care, rights, transfer and information available.
Stakeholders agreed that in their opinion that patients generally benefit from the care they receive (79%) and that the MHA 2001 ensures an independent and fair review of the person’s detention (65%). However, only 23% of stakeholders were satisfied with the process of transferring patients to hospital and with the clinical assessment procedures therein (37%), with the greatest levels of dissatisfaction amongst Gardai (Police), general practitioners (GPs) and family members.
While the introduction of the MHA 2001 has assisted delivery of care to patients with improved adherence to international human rights frameworks applicable at the time of its enactment, substantial dissatisfaction with the implementation of the MHA 2001 in practice is experienced by stakeholders particularly at the distressing phase of clinical assessment and transfer to hospital.
Fe-deficiency anaemia (IDA) occurs in 1–2 % of infants in developed countries, peaks at 1–3 years of age and is associated with later cognitive deficits. The objectives of the present study were to describe the characteristics of young children with severe IDA and examine modifiable risk factors in a developed-country setting.
Two prospective samples: a national surveillance programme sample and a regional longitudinal study sample.
Two samples of young children recruited from community-based health-care practices: a national sample with severe anaemia (Hb<80 g/l) due to Fe deficiency and a regional sample with non-anaemic Fe sufficiency.
Children with severe IDA (n 201, mean Hb 55·1 g/l) experienced substantial morbidity (including developmental delay, heart failure, cerebral thrombosis) and health-care utilization (including a 42 % hospitalization rate). Compared with children with Fe sufficiency (n 597, mean Hb 122·4 g/l), children with severe IDA consumed a larger volume of cow’s milk daily (median 1065 ml v. 500 ml, P<0·001) and were more likely to be using a bottle during the day (78 % v. 43 %, OR=6·0; 95 % CI 4·0, 8·9) and also in bed (60 % v. 21 %, OR=6·5; 95 % CI 4·4, 9·5).
Severe IDA is associated with substantial morbidity and may be preventable. Three potentially modifiable feeding practices are associated with IDA: (i) cow’s milk consumption greater than 500 ml/d; (ii) daytime bottle use beyond 12 months of age; and (iii) bottle use in bed. These feeding practices should be highlighted in future recommendations for public health and primary-care practitioners.
The association between vitamin D and wheezing in early childhood is unclear. The primary objective of this study was to evaluate the association between vitamin D exposure, during both pregnancy and childhood, and early childhood wheezing. Secondary objectives were to evaluate the associations between vitamin D exposures and asthma and wheezing severity. We conducted a cohort study of children (0–5 years) recruited from 2008 to 2013 through the TARGet Kids! primary-care research network. Vitamin D exposures included maternal vitamin D supplement use during pregnancy, child vitamin D supplementation and children’s 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) concentrations. The outcomes measured were parent-reported childhood wheezing, diagnosed asthma and wheezing severity. Vitamin D supplement and wheezing data were available for 2478 children, and blood samples were available for 1275 children. Adjusted odds ratios (aOR) were estimated using logistic regression adjusted for age, sex, ethnicity, body mass index, birth weight, outdoor play, breastfeeding duration, daycare status, parental smoking and family history of asthma. Vitamin D supplementation during pregnancy was associated with lower odds of childhood wheezing (aOR=0.65; 95% CI: 0.46–0.93). In early childhood, neither 25(OH)D (aOR per 10 nmol/l=1.01; 95% CI: 0.96–1.06) nor vitamin D supplementation (aOR=1.00; 95% CI: 0.81–1.23) was associated with wheezing. No significant associations were observed with diagnosed asthma or wheezing severity. Vitamin D supplementation during pregnancy was associated with reduced odds of wheezing, but child vitamin D supplementation and childhood 25(OH)D were not associated with reduced wheezing. The timing of exposure may be important in understanding the association between vitamin D and childhood wheezing.
Electrochemical Impedance Spectroscopy (EIS) and the Parallel Electrical Dielectric Response Analysis (PEDRA) application were used to describe the inner barrier oxide films on irradiated zirconium alloys. This is achieved with minimal surface preparation and without disturbing the outer porous oxide. These two distinguishable inner and outer oxide layers result from a growth-fracture oxidation mechanism. Key to success of the EIS technique in describing the barrier oxide layer are: 1) the model and procedure used to fit EIS spectra, 2) the validation of the fit, and 3) converting circuit parameters (R, C and n) into physical attributes of the barrier oxide.
The barrier oxide is defined as the inner-dense layer adjacent to the metal-oxide interface. The integrity of barrier oxide is thought to effect both oxidation (i.e. access of water to the interface), and hydrogen pickup (i.e. failure hydrogen to escape away from the interface). Using EIS and the PEDRA application, the barrier oxide is described in terms of multiple independent dielectric responses to yield a unique 'micro-macro' picture of the barrier oxide that can be used to explain observed H pickup behavior.
To determine if children aged 1–6 years from non-Western immigrant families have lower serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) levels than children from Western-born families and examine which factors influence this relationship.
Healthy children (n 1540) recruited through the TARGet Kids! practice-based research network. Serum 25(OH)D concentrations of non-Western immigrants were compared with those of children from Western-born families. Children from non-Western immigrant families were defined as those born, or their parents were born, outside a Western country. Univariate and multiple linear regression analyses were used to identify factors which might influence this relationship.
Median age was 36 months, 51 % were male, 86 % had ‘light’ skin pigmentation, 55 % took vitamin D supplements, mean cow's milk intake was 1·8 cups/d and 27 % were non-Western immigrants. Median serum 25(OH)D concentration was 83 nmol/l, with 5 % having 25(OH)D < 50 nmol/l. Univariable analysis revealed that non-Western immigrant children had serum 25(OH)D lower by 4 (95 % CI 1·3, 8·0) nmol/l (P = 0·006) and increased odds of 25(OH)D < 50 nmol/l (OR = 1·9; 95 % CI 1·3, 2·9). After adjustment for known vitamin D determinants the observed difference attenuated to 0·04 (95 % CI −4·8, 4·8) nmol/l (P = 0·99), with higher cow's milk intake (P < 0·0001), vitamin D supplementation (P < 0·0001), summer season (P = 0·008) and increased age (P = 0·04) being statistically significant covariates. Vitamin D supplementation was the strongest explanatory factor of the observed difference.
There is an association between non-Western immigration and lower 25(OH)D in early childhood. This difference appears related to known vitamin D determinants, primarily vitamin D supplementation, representing opportunities for intervention.
In August 2008 an outbreak of Salmonella Typhimurium DT104 occurred in South West London. Sixteen cases were identified with a particular multilocus variable number tandem repeat analysis (MLVA) pattern. In a matched case-control study 14 primary cases were included. These were defined as individuals with gastrointestinal symptoms and Salmonella Typhimurium DT104 isolated from a stool specimen, with a characteristic antibiotic resistance profile and MLVA pattern, and diagnosed in a local laboratory. Four controls per case were matched on age, gender and area of residence. Cases were 26 times more likely than controls to have eaten beef biltong, a South African speciality meat product (odds ratio 25·83, 95% confidence interval 4·92–135·59, P < 0·01). Although environmental investigation failed to identify Salmonella in the food product we conclude that beef biltong consumption led to this outbreak. This conclusion has importance in informing the ongoing risk assessment relating to uncontrolled foodstuffs.
To identify child and parental factors associated with screen time in 3-year-old children.
Participants were recruited from a large primary-care paediatric group practice in Toronto, Canada.
Healthy 3-year-old children were included. A questionnaire was completed by their parents on screen time. Descriptive statistics and linear regression models were used to assess associations between child screen time and selected factors. Multivariable models included factors from the univariate analysis with P < 0·1. Estimated effects and 95 % CI are reported.
A total of 157 children were enrolled (91 % recruitment). The mean screen time per weekday was 104 min (similar for weekend day). In all, 10 % of children had a television (TV) in their bedroom; 59 % consumed at least one meal while watching TV; and 81 % of parents had household rules about screen time. Controlling for maternal education and age, eating lunch and dinner in front of the screen and mother being employed were associated with an increase in child weekday screen time of 96 (95 % CI 30, 192), 42 (95 % CI 12, 90) and 36 (95 % CI 6, 72) min/d, respectively. Eating lunch in front of the screen and an increase of 1 h of parental screen time were associated with an increase of 78 (95 % CI 36, 132) and 12 (95 % CI 6, 18) min/d in child weekend screen time. Family rules decreased child weekend screen time by 30 (95 % CI 6, 54) min/d.
Interventions that include these important parental factors should be evaluated for their effectiveness in reducing screen time.