We investigate the role of optimism bias in bull price expectations using incentivized lab-in-the-field experiments with Alabama and Tennessee cattle producers. We develop bull price prediction tasks and reward accurate predictions. We find that the EPD information provision prevents optimism bias from contaminating price expectations in the whole sample. However, we also document that, unlike buyers, sellers are prone to unrealistic optimistic expectations, and our results reveal that optimism bias can be moderated by the type of expected progeny difference information utilized, breed characteristics, and regional differences in cattle operations. We contribute to the literature by documenting the role of behavioral biases.

In a recent study, visual signals were recorded for the first time in starburst amacrine cells of the macaque retina, and, as for mouse and rabbit, a directional bias observed in calcium signals was recorded from near the dendritic tips. Stimulus motion from the soma toward the tip generated a larger calcium signal than motion from the tip toward the soma. Two mechanisms affecting the spatiotemporal summation of excitatory postsynaptic currents have been proposed to contribute to directional signaling at the dendritic tips of starbursts: (1) a “morphological” mechanism in which electrotonic propagation of excitatory synaptic currents along a dendrite sums bipolar cell inputs at the dendritic tip preferentially for stimulus motion in the centrifugal direction; (2) a “space–time” mechanism that relies on differences in the time-courses of proximal and distal bipolar cell inputs to favor centrifugal stimulus motion. To explore the contributions of these two mechanisms in the primate, we developed a realistic computational model based on connectomic reconstruction of a macaque starburst cell and the distribution of its synaptic inputs from sustained and transient bipolar cell types. Our model suggests that both mechanisms can initiate direction selectivity in starburst dendrites, but their contributions differ depending on the spatiotemporal properties of the stimulus. Specifically, the morphological mechanism dominates when small visual objects are moving at high velocities, and the space–time mechanism contributes most for large visual objects moving at low velocities.

OBJECTIVES/GOALS: Clinical tissue specimens are primarily destined for formalin fixed, paraffin embedded processing to create a basis for diagnosis by microscopic examination. Innovations in specimen processing are required to expand its availability for inclusion as the substrate in assays that can contribute to the further development of Precision Medicine. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: Transurethral resection of bladder tumors were selected for testing based on availability and tissue composition. A wash step was used to generate daughter aliquots composed of dislodged cells and a solution with prior contact to the parent tissue. This wash step served two purposes: 1) reduce the amount of contaminating material from spreading to other cases, a problem known to be associated with this type of specimen; and 2) create aliquots from which additional informative data could be generated. These daughter aliquots were then examined to determine their value as a source for exosome profiling, metabolomic studies, molecular characterization and organoid development. The parent tissue was not compromised, was able to undergo conventional processing and yielded results equivalent to unwashed specimens. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: Exosomes secreted by the tumor cells were identified to be present in the daughter aliquots by a combination of their isolation using CD31 and detection of miR-21 expression. These exosomes were confirmed to be not related to fragmented cells from testing for beta-tubulin. A global/discovery-based approach using mass spectrometry provided insights into early characterization of metabolomic profiles present in these tumor cells. Ample amounts of high quality DNA (226 ng/ul concentrations; 11.3 ug total) were recovered from the dislodged, excess cells in the wash for molecular studies. Finally, from viable cells recovered in one of the daughter wash aliquots, the ability to grow organoids was proven to be possible and reproducible. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE: Based on these results, the value of the clinical specimen can be markedly expanded for utilization in research and possible clinical use without detracting from the parent tissue. This non-destructive, easy to adopt wash procedure can potentially lead to an influx of data that may ultimately prove useful in improving patient care.

OBJECTIVES/GOALS: My research aims to discover African American breast cancer genetic risk factors. Interested in genetic predisposition, I search for inherited variants that could explain why African American women are disparately diagnosed at younger ages and with aggressive subtypes compared to other ethnicities. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: Our study cohort, the Alabama Hereditary Cancer Cohort (AHCC), consists of African Americans that have had a breast cancer diagnosis indicative of hereditary breast cancer. Whole genome sequencing is conducted for AHCC breast cancer cases. Hypothesizing that African American-specific protein-truncating variants explain inherited risk, our control cohort consists of whole exome sequencing data of (~2500) African Americans from the Type 2 Diabetes Exome Sequencing Project on dbGAP. Single variant and gene-based association tests are being conducted to identify risk variants/genes. Prime editing is conducted to introduce risk variants into cancer cell lines for functional analyses. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: Preliminary studies, involving 60 breast cancer cases, have already revealed multiple African American-specific genetic variants in the nuclear and mitochondrial genome that are statistically linked to breast cancer risk. We are in the process of increasing our breast cancer sample size, aiming for significantly higher confidence. Prime editing for selected novel variants has begun in breast cancer cell lines. Functional assays will then be carried out to observe differences in cell proliferation, cell migration, and spheroid formation in the genetically edited compared to unedited cell lines. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE: African Americans are underrepresented in breast cancer research. This study reduces research participation gaps and identifies genetic risk variants, leading to better risk assessments and screening methods. Such discoveries can also lead to new therapeutic targets, reducing breast cancer deaths.

Despite growing interest in proposals for a universal basic income, little advance has been made in implementation. Here we explore policy options for an Australian Basic Income. Our analysis responds to concerns that Basic Income is both too expensive and too radical a departure from existing welfare state structures to be a feasible policy option. Drawing on policy and Basic Income scholarship we identify changes to Australia’s current means-tested benefits structures that move substantially towards Basic Income while remaining consistent with historic policy norms, which we call ‘affluence testing’. Using microsimulation we explore fiscal and distributional trade-offs associated with the implementation of an affluence-tested Basic Income. Our results suggest Basic Income has the potential to significantly reduce inequality and poverty while also requiring taxes to rise substantially. Placing these trade-offs in international context we find the policy would reduce inequality to levels similar to Nordic welfare states while increasing overall taxation to approximately the OECD average.

We are now close to reaching what climate scientists advise is a ‘tipping point’ when the injuries we have visited on the planet will become self-reinforcing and produce an ecosystem that is alien to human life. The mal-distribution of consumption within and between nations is a major reason why there is little agreement on appropriate remedial action. Ensuring planetary survival while reducing inequity is made the more difficult, because the richest one-seventh of the world’s population has already reached consumption levels beyond the capacity of the planetary ecosystem to accommodate it.

Planning for a low-carbon future in Australia will need to address simultaneously three aspects of sustainable development: centralisation/regional development, mobility and communication. After reviewing existing roadmaps for low-carbon growth by 2050, the article identifies the importance for Australia of an integrated and mutually reinforcing set of measures, based on a bold approach to urban and regional planning. Taking account of national geography, the approach is based on the decentralisation of energy production, use and storage, and on new uses of communication, transport and the location of food, water and mineral resources. Revitalised regional centres could be connected, through new energy and transport solutions, by a national transport arc and electrified highways. The use of infrastructure funding to support low-carbon regional development would avoid the ‘tragedy of the commons’, transcending incremental, cumulative approaches based on compensation and incentives for household, business and sectoral abatement efforts. It would generate long-term environmentally sustainable development.

Five decades after the United Nation's first conference on the environment in 1972, the IPCC warned that ‘any further delay in concerted anticipatory global action on adaptation and mitigation will miss a brief and rapidly closing window of opportunity to secure a liveable and sustainable future for all’. Faced with steeply rising greenhouse gas emissions, accelerating biodiversity loss and continued degradation of oceans, forests and soil, the situation appears increasingly baffling. Why do we not see effective measures to turn these developments around? As the situation grows dire, it becomes more mysterious: what exactly is this crisis and why has it proven so difficult to solve? If the problem persists, is it because it is not properly understood? Yet, the environmental question has been studied for decades and diagnoses are legion: capitalism, colonialism, overpopulation, economic growth, humanity's inherent short-sightedness, patriarchy, the private property system – or the tragedy of the commons, the disconnect from nature in Western culture, corporate anti-environmental campaigns, the Neolithic adoption of agriculture – or its more recent industrialisation, the miscommunication of environmentalists and scientists, Christianity and neoliberalism have all been proposed as fundamental causes of the crisis. Despite this long and rich history of debate, it may be, as Pierre Charbonnier argues, that we need a more precise understanding of the ‘ecological question’ to find a way out of the present impasse. In line with Katrina Forrester and Sophie Smith's argument, we are convinced that such rethinking of the environmental must be historical, but also that it must pay special attention to economic aspects. Since the end of the Second World War, economics has risen to prominence as a form of expertise in governance at the expense of other kinds of knowledge, and the environment has become closely intertwined with the economic in the ways it has been governed. In that light, it is not surprising that current discussions among scholars, climate scientists, politicians and social movements hold that the environmental crisis calls for a reevaluation of the economic. History is central to this endeavour and can be ‘usable’ in the current crisis, as it, in Deborah Coen's words, can ‘reveal the contingent and often contradictory traces of the past in the present – and to provide clarity for the future’. In this introduction we discuss three partially overlapping ways in which historical perspectives can be helpful to the effort of constructing an ecologically stable society. In contrast to the general tendency in the twenty-first century academy to divide into ever more specialised fields, we call for a broader conversation among historians of the economic and of the environmental to reveal the paths that brought us here – and the ones not taken. We need new histories of thought, institutions, movements and governance that combine the economic and the environmental to reach a better understanding of the present crisis, decode the specific mechanisms of inaction in the face of looming catastrophe, and strive towards more apt formulations of the environmental. We wish to contribute to an emerging conversation located at the intersection of history of economic thought, intellectual history and political history more generally by pointing to strands of research that could be drawn together and that this special issue is meant to engage in dialogue.

We estimate a hedonic pricing model to determine producers’ value for bull expected progeny differences (EPDs), genomic-enhanced EPDs, and phenotypic traits. Birth weight EPD, ribeye area EPD, sale weight, age, frame score, and other factors had a statistically significant impact on bull prices. GE-EPDs were not associated with a change in the bull sales prices expect for weaned calf value and birth weight EPDs. Including weaned calf value and GE-EPDs in a bull hedonic pricing model provides a unique contribution. The results from this work will inform educational programming for bull purchasers on using new economic selection indices and GE-EPDs.

In this paper we present an experimental study of edge turbulence in the Large Plasma Device at UCLA. We utilize a scan of discharge power and prefill pressure (neutral density) to show experimentally that turbulent density fluctuations decrease with decreasing density gradient, as predicted for resistive drift-wave turbulence (RDWT). As expected for RDWT, we observe that the cross-phase between the density and potential fluctuations is close to 0. Moreover, the addition of an electron temperature gradient leads to a reduction in the amplitude of the density fluctuations, as expected for RDWT. However, counter to theoretical expectations, we find that the potential fluctuations do not follow the same trends as the density fluctuations for changes either in density gradients or the addition of a temperature gradient. The disconnect between the density and potential fluctuations is connected to changes in the parallel flows as a result of differences in the prefill pressure, i.e. neutral density. Further analysis of the density and potential fluctuation spectra show that the electron temperature gradient reduces the low frequency fluctuations up to $10 \,{\rm kHz}$ and the introduction of a temperature gradient leads to an unexpected ${\sim }{\rm \pi}$ shift of the density–potential cross-phase at ${\sim }10\,{\rm kHz}$, while maintaining the typical resistive drift-wave cross-phase at lower frequencies. These experiments partly confirm existing knowledge on resistive drift-wave turbulence, but also introduce new observations that indicate a need for dedicated nonlinear three-dimensional turbulence simulations that include neutrals.