Tobacco Industry Myth: Measures to control tobacco use will suppress global demand and drive down prices for tobacco leaf, thereby provoking a livelihood crisis among tobacco farmers.

Research Findings:

1. • Overall consumption of tobacco products will actually increase for the next several decades, driven by the growth in population and rising rates of tobacco use in low- and middle-income countries.

2. • Consequently, the global tobacco leaf market will remain substantial enough to sustain the current generation of tobacco farmers, most of whom sell a product that goes into global markets.

3. • Corporate strategies of a monopolistic industry (among other factors such as government subsidies and population growth) carry much more weight in driving demand for and production of tobacco globally and in particular national contexts.

4. • The real source of vulnerability of tobacco farmers to fluctuations in demand and falling farm-gate prices for tobacco leaf has to do with their weak bargaining position in the leaf marketing chain and is not due to tobacco-control measures.